Schedule release tomorrow (Wed) at 2p

[TheTechGuy]

Brief overview of the teams we play.

Sept. 1 Alcorn State
IF we can't beat them we have big issues.

Sept. 8 @ USF
Lose over half their team from this year, including QB and top 2 RBs.

Sept. 15 @ Pitt
Did not look good last year but finished strong, three top players declared early for draft. Thankfully Henderson declared. Looking at another USC QB transfer (Ricky Town).

Sept. 22 Clemson
Going to be an L. They lose an OL, WR and DB to the draft, but they return A LOT of their starters and two-deep. One more year of Christian Wilkins destroying our OL. Let's try not to freak out when this happens. My pick to win the NC next year.

Sept. 29 Bowling Green
Went 2-10 in 2017 and lose quite a few seniors.

Oct. 5 @ Louisville (Fri.)
Jawon Pass is a name to be remembered this year, he's big, he's good. Lose 8 starters off a horrible defense. Offense loses Jackson, their LT (Christian/NFL early declare) RB (Bonnafon) and TE (Standberry).

Oct. 13 Duke (Bye week)
Return a lot of starters. Could be a good year for Duke. Replacing both kicker and punter.

BYE WEEK - Always a tough opponent.

Oct. 25 @ Virginia Tech (Thurs.)
Both Edmunds brothers and Settle declared for draft; should have a significant effect on their D. They return a lot on O, but I'm not sure that scares anyone.

Nov. 3 @ North Carolina
Who knows? They lose M.J. Stewart to graduation and Andre Smith to the draft, their two best defensive players. Difficult to assess their team because of so many injuries last year.

Nov. 10 Miami
They are thin at DT; DT Norton declared for the draft and another DT transferred. They bring back 9 starters on D and only lose 3 on O. Left side of their line is gone and Berrios graduated.

Nov. 17 Virginia
Lose 4 on D and 6 on O. Benkert, the QB is gone and will be replaced by a young guy. Would have been better to get them early.

Nov. 24 @ Georgia
Lose 9 starters on defense, including Smith and Thompson to the draft. Lose 5 on O, including their LT, two best RBs, and best WR. Statistically speaking, they lose a lot on O.

 

[Towaliga]

Don't forget about LSU. They might actually have 4 challenging games next year in Florida, LSU, Auburn, and GT.

LSU and Florida may present a challenge next year, but that remains to be seen. Still, I never miss an opportunity to take a shot at the SEC Eas(y)t.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

Acorn state and Blowing Green ...How do they find such? are they division 1?

BG is in the MAC

 

[FredJacket]

In the larger scheme of things, it probably doesn't matter that much. But to me what really matters is the odds of such a thing randomly happening. If you go look at the composite schedule, out of all 15 teams, Virginia is literally the ONLY team that plays an FCS opponent on 11/10. So we play them 11/17. That's why I predicted we'd play Virginia on 11/17 before the schedule was released (I also predicted Clemson after Georgia Southern, UNCheat after a long break for us, and other stuff). I mean, if you sat down with a cynical mind and said 'what is the most we can screw Georgia Tech', these are the sorts of things you would come up with.

Ok... I like the idea of talking about "odds" and probability (without any numbers to back it up btw... ).

Fast forward to the UVA game in 2018. Assume both Ga Tech and UVA are playing for a birth in the ACCCG (for fun....irrelevant to my question). What are the odds Ga Tech loses the game? ...then... What are odds that loss is attributed to fact UVA played Liberty the week prior? ...by any measure... extremely LOW.

 

[Jmonty71]

Yeah Tennessee plays East Tennessee State and Charlotte this season

If you think about it. The SEC is smart. Scheduling a cream puff late in the season. Only makes your team look better late in the season. Its well known the CFP committee will over look an early loss vs. a loss late in the season. Given, you're not a team named Bama.

 

[tech_wreck47]

FIFY

I was talking about out of conference teams lol. Auburn is still SEC evnthough in the West.

 

[UgaBlows]

I hope we learn how to play in the rain in 2018.

Maybe we should stop using the indoor practice field when it rains

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Ok... I like the idea of talking about "odds" and probability (without any numbers to back it up btw... ).

Fast forward to the UVA game in 2018. Assume both Ga Tech and UVA are playing for a birth in the ACCCG (for fun....irrelevant to my question). What are the odds Ga Tech loses the game? ...then... What are odds that loss is attributed to fact UVA played Liberty the week prior? ...by any measure... extremely LOW.

Well we are Georgia Tech grads, so we can figure out that the odds of us being the team that plays the only team who plays an FCS opponent is 1 out of 14 (15 minus Virginia themselves), or about 7%.

You realize there are advantages right, that affect outcomes? For example, a home field advantage for the same 2 teams is about 3 points. That is to say if 2 teams were viewed as totally even and played on a neutral field, each team would be favored by 3 points if the game had to be moved to their field. That is a 1 touchdown swing depending on where you play.

Teams playing after Bye Weeks are no different. Last year we lost on the road to a Top 10 Miami team in a torrential downpour on a crazy play by 1 point. That was the first loss CPJ ever had in his 10 years where we had a Bye week when our opponent didn't (no thanks to the ACC, that was due to Miami/FSU rescheduling). We were an undefeated something like 4-0 or 5-0 before that (can't remember the exact number). When we play a team that has a Bye week before us and we didn't, we're something like 3-7...again, going from memory. Now keep in mind, CPJs total record in ACC play is 46-34 for a 57% win percentage (or 45-27 and and 63% absent injury ridden 2015 if you prefer that). So these Bye Week variations are materially different than regular play. It matters. And we know it matters, because we hear about games like Jacksonville State that we played on short rest when they were off and how our guys were limping around all week and basically couldn't practice. If Virginia wins big against Liberty and their starters barely play a half, that matters. In terms of points, who knows. But yea, if we barely lose to Virginia by a couple points, then certainly shame on us. But this again misses the larger point - we shouldn't even have to worry about how many points this might be worth. It just shouldn't keep happening over and over and over. 6 of our 11 FBS games next year are against teams that either have the week off before us, or they play an FCS-like opponent. It just shouldn't happen.

 

[JacketFromUGA]

Acorn state and Blowing Green ...How do they find such? are they division 1?

Lol you changed their names to be bad jokes.

Classic comedy.


GT usually Schedules 1-2 P5, 1-2 G5, and 1 FCS team every year with the outliers being years where we had the rug pulled out from under us. This year has 2 G5 teams instead of 2 P5 so yes our strength of schedule is going to be weaker but GT is by no means deviating from the norm of other ACC/SEC schools.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Well we are Georgia Tech grads, so we can figure out that the odds of us being the team that plays the only team who plays an FCS opponent is 1 out of 14 (15 minus Virginia themselves), or about 7%.

You realize there are advantages right, that affect outcomes? For example, a home field advantage for the same 2 teams is about 3 points. That is to say if 2 teams were viewed as totally even and played on a neutral field, each team would be favored by 3 points if the game had to be moved to their field. That is a 1 touchdown swing depending on where you play.

Teams playing after Bye Weeks are no different. Last year we lost on the road to a Top 10 Miami team in a torrential downpour on a crazy play by 1 point. That was the first loss CPJ ever had in his 10 years where we had a Bye week when our opponent didn't (no thanks to the ACC, that was due to Miami/FSU rescheduling). We were an undefeated something like 4-0 or 5-0 before that (can't remember the exact number). When we play a team that has a Bye week before us and we didn't, we're something like 3-7...again, going from memory. Now keep in mind, CPJs total record in ACC play is 46-34 for a 57% win percentage (or 45-27 and and 63% absent injury ridden 2015 if you prefer that). So these Bye Week variations are materially different than regular play. It matters. And we know it matters, because we hear about games like Jacksonville State that we played on short rest when they were off and how our guys were limping around all week and basically couldn't practice. If Virginia wins big against Liberty and their starters barely play a half, that matters. In terms of points, who knows. But yea, if we barely lose to Virginia by a couple points, then certainly shame on us. But this again misses the larger point - we shouldn't even have to worry about how many points this might be worth. It just shouldn't keep happening over and over and over. 6 of our 11 FBS games next year are against teams that either have the week off before us, or they play an FCS-like opponent. It just shouldn't happen.

Liberty will be an FBS independent in 2018.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

Liberty will be an FBS independent in 2018.

It wouldn't shock me if the Flames tripped up the Wahoos

 

[FredJacket]

Well we are Georgia Tech grads, so we can figure out that the odds of us being the team that plays the only team who plays an FCS opponent is 1 out of 14 (15 minus Virginia themselves), or about 7%.

You realize there are advantages right, that affect outcomes? For example, a home field advantage for the same 2 teams is about 3 points. That is to say if 2 teams were viewed as totally even and played on a neutral field, each team would be favored by 3 points if the game had to be moved to their field. That is a 1 touchdown swing depending on where you play.

Teams playing after Bye Weeks are no different. Last year we lost on the road to a Top 10 Miami team in a torrential downpour on a crazy play by 1 point. That was the first loss CPJ ever had in his 10 years where we had a Bye week when our opponent didn't (no thanks to the ACC, that was due to Miami/FSU rescheduling). We were an undefeated something like 4-0 or 5-0 before that (can't remember the exact number). When we play a team that has a Bye week before us and we didn't, we're something like 3-7...again, going from memory. Now keep in mind, CPJs total record in ACC play is 46-34 for a 57% win percentage (or 45-27 and and 63% absent injury ridden 2015 if you prefer that). So these Bye Week variations are materially different than regular play. It matters. And we know it matters, because we hear about games like Jacksonville State that we played on short rest when they were off and how our guys were limping around all week and basically couldn't practice. If Virginia wins big against Liberty and their starters barely play a half, that matters. In terms of points, who knows. But yea, if we barely lose to Virginia by a couple points, then certainly shame on us. But this again misses the larger point - we shouldn't even have to worry about how many points this might be worth. It just shouldn't keep happening over and over and over. 6 of our 11 FBS games next year are against teams that either have the week off before us, or they play an FCS-like opponent. It just shouldn't happen.

The problem I have with your 'numbers' here is 1) I cannot refute them; and 2) You cannot support them ...when you must factor in so many other things IMO...and it just becomes to hard (impossible) to correlate W's and L's to the ACC's scheduling output. Just saying we're undefeated in last 4-5 games coming off bye is information... but incomplete. IF you really believe the ACC screws us with scheduling, then do you believe they give us an "easy" conference opponent after a bye or a difficult one? ...seems either scenario (ironically) you could argue they screwed us. Based on your data... the ACC must give us easy opponents after a bye which would lend itself to greater sensitivity to quality of opponent instead of the simple fact there was a bye the week prior.

Where does all the conspiracy stuff end? I'd love to get to the bottom of it. I just don't believe everything you mention here comes close to capturing all the variables that translate to W's and L's.

Specifically... the UVA game in 2018. I just don't buy that they will show up at BDS with any marginal advantage (due to scheduling) before kickoff. ...but again... I cannot support that with numbers. I wish I could. My stab...I'd say it's somewhere in the vicinity +.003 points for UVA.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

The problem I have with your 'numbers' here is 1) I cannot refute them; and 2) You cannot support them ...when you must factor in so many other things IMO...and it just becomes to hard (impossible) to correlate W's and L's to the ACC's scheduling output. Just saying we're undefeated in last 4-5 games coming off bye is information... but incomplete. IF you really believe the ACC screws us with scheduling, then do you believe they give us an "easy" conference opponent after a bye or a difficult one? ...seems either scenario (ironically) you could argue they screwed us. Based on your data... the ACC must give us easy opponents after a bye which would lend itself to greater sensitivity to quality of opponent instead of the simple fact there was a bye the week prior.

Where does all the conspiracy stuff end? I'd love to get to the bottom of it. I just don't believe everything you mention here comes close to capturing all the variables that translate to W's and L's.

Specifically... the UVA game in 2018. I just don't buy that they will show up at BDS with any marginal advantage (due to scheduling) before kickoff. ...but again... I cannot support that with numbers. I wish I could. My stab...I'd say it's somewhere in the vicinity +.003 points for UVA.

UVA is going back to being a nothing in 2018 I think they win 4-5 games and that's it.

 

[tmhunter52]

I hope we learn how to play in the rain in 2018.

After last year, I hope we learn to play on the road again.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The problem I have with your 'numbers' here is 1) I cannot refute them; and 2) You cannot support them ...when you must factor in so many other things IMO...and it just becomes to hard (impossible) to correlate W's and L's to the ACC's scheduling output. Just saying we're undefeated in last 4-5 games coming off bye is information... but incomplete. IF you really believe the ACC screws us with scheduling, then do you believe they give us an "easy" conference opponent after a bye or a difficult one? ...seems either scenario (ironically) you could argue they screwed us. Based on your data... the ACC must give us easy opponents after a bye which would lend itself to greater sensitivity to quality of opponent instead of the simple fact there was a bye the week prior.

Where does all the conspiracy stuff end? I'd love to get to the bottom of it. I just don't believe everything you mention here comes close to capturing all the variables that translate to W's and L's.

Specifically... the UVA game in 2018. I just don't buy that they will show up at BDS with any marginal advantage (due to scheduling) before kickoff. ...but again... I cannot support that with numbers. I wish I could. My stab...I'd say it's somewhere in the vicinity +.003 points for UVA.

I know. I get all that. Its tough. But maybe think of it this way. We don't get 8 home games and 0 road games. Why? Because over literally thousands and thousands of games, we DO have enough data (more than just Georgia Tech's 10 year data sample) to quantify an advantage.

In terms of bye weeks and weak opponents, we in our brains know its not equitable, but we don't have enough data to quantify it over a large thousand+ game sample set.

Here is where I am - I don't really care if we can ever quantify it. But just like we don't get 8 home games, we also don't get tons of bye weeks. So, the league needs to STOP scheduling craziness where there would be an appearance of bias. If Virginia is literally the ONLY team out of 15 in the ACC who doesn't play an ACC game on 11/10, then with all the long and sordid history, maybe not schedule them against Georgia Tech on 11/17. Or leave Georgia Tech out for a minute - when you have a situation like that, just make sure the SAME TEAM EVERY YEAR doesn't get stuck with such an opponent.

It may not be bias against Georgia Tech at all. But the fact this garbage happens EVERY YEAR (for example, we have twice as many post bye week opponents as the average again) is at the very least incompetence in the ACC office.

 

[tmhunter52]

Maybe we should stop using the indoor practice field when it rains

And start tackling tree stumps during fall camp...

 

[UgaBlows]

I wonder how often the ACC gives us the bye week asked for?

 

[FredJacket]

I know. I get all that. Its tough. But maybe think of it this way. We don't get 8 home games and 0 road games. Why? Because over literally thousands and thousands of games, we DO have enough data (more than just Georgia Tech's 10 year data sample) to quantify an advantage.

In terms of bye weeks and weak opponents, we in our brains know its not equitable, but we don't have enough data to quantify it over a large thousand+ game sample set.

Here is where I am - I don't really care if we can ever quantify it. But just like we don't get 8 home games, we also don't get tons of bye weeks. So, the league needs to STOP scheduling craziness where there would be an appearance of bias. If Virginia is literally the ONLY team out of 15 in the ACC who doesn't play an ACC game on 11/10, then with all the long and sordid history, maybe not schedule them against Georgia Tech on 11/17. Or leave Georgia Tech out for a minute - when you have a situation like that, just make sure the SAME TEAM EVERY YEAR doesn't get stuck with such an opponent.

It may not be bias against Georgia Tech at all. But the fact this garbage happens EVERY YEAR (for example, we have twice as many post bye week opponents as the average again) is at the very least incompetence in the ACC office.

Ok. Fair enough. Small 'correction'... its 14 ACC teams. The simple difference between you and me? EVEN if I concede the ACC deliberately picks on Ga Tech scheduling-wise... I do not believe it translates to more losses. Other factors (many) weigh-in entirely too heavily and make any scheduling advantage/disadvantage nominal. As for the ACC targeting Tech...or is it favoring a small number of ACC schools, I suppose that is possible...maybe even likely; but the echo-chamber of this forum makes me want to engage in some 'balancing' of opinion.

I'm also on record... I would really like more transparency on what the institutional requests are prior to scheduling and which ones were met.. which not... and why. According to the ACC they manages to honor over 80% (higher % than the average year) of the requests. There were somewhere around 34 requests. I could give you the exact numbers... but for some reason the link is now dead to that Q&A page.

 

[MikeJackets1967]

Ok. Fair enough. Small 'correction'... its 14 ACC teams. The simple difference between you and me? EVEN if I concede the ACC deliberately picks on Ga Tech scheduling-wise... I do not believe it translates to more losses. Other factors (many) weigh-in entirely too heavily and make any scheduling advantage/disadvantage nominal. As for the ACC targeting Tech...or is it favoring a small number of ACC schools, I suppose that is possible...maybe even likely; but the echo-chamber of this forum makes me want to engage in some 'balancing' of opinion.

I'm also on record... I would really like more transparency on what the institutional requests are prior to scheduling and which ones were met.. which not... and why. According to the ACC they manages to honor over 80% (higher % than the average year) of the requests. There were somewhere around 34 requests. I could give you the exact numbers... but for some reason the link is now dead to that Q&A page.

GT gets treated like the red headed stepchild of the ACC

 

[Whiskey_Clear]

Ok. Fair enough. Small 'correction'... its 14 ACC teams. The simple difference between you and me? EVEN if I concede the ACC deliberately picks on Ga Tech scheduling-wise... I do not believe it translates to more losses. Other factors (many) weigh-in entirely too heavily and make any scheduling advantage/disadvantage nominal. As for the ACC targeting Tech...or is it favoring a small number of ACC schools, I suppose that is possible...maybe even likely; but the echo-chamber of this forum makes me want to engage in some 'balancing' of opinion.

I'm also on record... I would really like more transparency on what the institutional requests are prior to scheduling and which ones were met.. which not... and why. According to the ACC they manages to honor over 80% (higher % than the average year) of the requests. There were somewhere around 34 requests. I could give you the exact numbers... but for some reason the link is now dead to that Q&A page.

Maybe other factors have a larger impact on advantages of bye weeks. Most of those are static (talent) or uncontrolled (weather? Kickoff time). But byes do have an impact. I don’t think anyone argues that. For that reason there should not be an annual appearance of bias for Tech, FSU, or any other school. Luckily (or maybe not luck) for the rest of tHE ACC, it’s only been biased (intentional or not) against us and the Noles.