Passing the ball

[gtdrew]

GTRX7: I agree, we did pass on 1st down sometimes, but it always seemed as if it was the wrong time. I also became frustrated with his calls for passes when it seemed the wrong time to pass. However, when the team is in a rhythm and the running plays are working great, it seems senseless to pass on first down, only to fall incomplete, and then leave only second and third down to try and keep the march going. Then, the frustration would get worse when the next play was up the middle, and it got stuffed. The defense knew B-Back up the middle would be the next play.

Its like the coach is saying, I will pass on first down and make the defense play looser. Well if they stopped the 1st down pass, then they know the B-Back up the middle is next. If I missed on the first pass, I would probably take my chances by passing on the second and third as well. Even if I ran on second down, it would be in space to the A-Back to try and pick up significant yardage.

I also would like to know the statistics on 3rd and long, but broken down against the stronger teams instead of the weaker teams. Also, against the passing teams versus those with poor passers.

I feel like I need to schedule a CATscan, because I agree w Rodney here. So many times the last couple seasons CPJ called pass plays because he hadn't called one in a while, not because the flow of the game dictated it. IDK when CPJ lost that feel for the game that he had his first couple years.

 

[AE 87]

FWIW 3rd Down comp% by YTG
1-3 Only team without attempt
4-6 62nd, 55.6% 18 attempts
7-9 45th, 57.1% 35 attempts
10plus 120th, 33.3% 27 attempts

 

[stylee]

Interesting. So we are pretty much average from 3rd and 4 to 3rd and 9, but really are bad at 3rd and 10+.

Buuuut...those numbers don't show if first downs were actually gained, right? I'm guessing there are some teams who make a living on shorter passes and hit some 5 yard completions on 3rd and 10s.

 

[Mack]

Part of what nodawgs is talking about, as far as being simple to understand but hard to defend, falls on the coach packaging the concepts in a cohesive way - you turn separate plays into modules of the same sort of concepts, and make everything an extension of another part of the system.


I have no idea how CPJ currently packages things. I'm sure it's something he constantly tinkers with. Though we don't need JT (or Tim or Matt) to be 70% passers - in fact, I'd be worried if they were - I think that getting back to Tevin 2012 levels of completion percentage would be really great for us. Even a 45% rate with more long plays would have us humming.

45 percent when we really need a completion will be okay..we will not ever throw more than we run but when yu see 6-5 or a 7 Diamond or Gap 8 in front of you ...its time to put it up.

 

[GTRX7]

FWIW 3rd Down comp% by YTG
1-3 Only team without attempt
4-6 62nd, 55.6% 18 attempts
7-9 45th, 57.1% 35 attempts
10plus 120th, 33.3% 27 attempts

That is just completion percentage, right? Not conversion percentage? Conversion percentage in those situations is the key statistic (whether pass or run), not completion percentage.

 

[Boomergump]

Part of what nodawgs is talking about, as far as being simple to understand but hard to defend, falls on the coach packaging the concepts in a cohesive way - you turn separate plays into modules of the same sort of concepts, and make everything an extension of another part of the system.


I have no idea how CPJ currently packages things. I'm sure it's something he constantly tinkers with. Though we don't need JT (or Tim or Matt) to be 70% passers - in fact, I'd be worried if they were - I think that getting back to Tevin 2012 levels of completion percentage would be really great for us. Even a 45% rate with more long plays would have us humming.

This. All we need is TW with 10 or 15 more yards of arm strength. Nothing more really.

 

[GTRX7]

That is just completion percentage, right? Not conversion percentage? Conversion percentage in those situations is the key statistic (whether pass or run), not completion percentage.

This Tech fan apparently did something like that in 2012, comparing 3rd down conversion percentages based on distance in BCS v. BCS games, for every team: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/5/7/4303984/college-football-third-down-percentages Man, that seems like a lot of work!

There is just such a small amount of data on Tech that it is hard to derive much. Without looking at the number of attempts per distance, we look to be about average (in fact, I quickly fitted a curve to the GT data and it basically overlaps with the national average across the 1-20 range). However, given that we have a disproportionately high number of short yardage 3rd down attempts, we ended up above average in total 3rd down conversion %. Details below. (Of note, 2012 was a terrible year to single out GT data. In 2011, we finished 2nd in the country in 3rd down conversion at 54% and in 2013 we finished 4th at 51%. However, in 2012, we finished 31st with only 46%.)

[Edit to say stupid table formatting! But hopefully you can figure it out.]
(To Go) (GT Attmpts) (GT Success) (GT Ave) (National Ave)
1 32 26 81% 71%
2 16 10 63% 57%
3 18 13 72% 51%
4 12 4 33% 47%
5 18 6 33% 41%
6 17 7 41% 38%
7 14 4 29% 35%
8 12 1 8% 31%
9 10 3 30% 31%
10 9 1 11% 27%
11 4 3 75% 25%
12 4 0 0% 21%
13 5 2 40% 23%
14 3 2 67% 18%
15 2 0 0% 15%
16 0 0 0% 17%
17 2 1 50% 16%
18 1 0 0% 11%
19 0 0 0% 12%
20 0 0 0% 10%

 

[AE 87]

That is just completion percentage, right? Not conversion percentage? Conversion percentage in those situations is the key statistic (whether pass or run), not completion percentage.

I agree, but the thread was on passing, and cfbstats gives this stat. By comparison, here are two more years, fwiw:
2011 comp % by ytg 3rd down
1-3 0 att
4-6 43rd 61.5% 13 att
7-9 48th 57.1% 14 att
10 plus 95th 44% 25 att

2012
1-3 123rd 20% 5 att (TW 0% 3att)
4-6 121st 33.3% 12att (TW 37.5% 8 att)
7-9 39th 57.9% 19 att (TW 66.7% 15 att)
10 plus. 83rd 47.8% 23 att (TW 50% 20 att)

 

[Mack]

I feel like I need to schedule a CATscan, because I agree w Rodney here. So many times the last couple seasons CPJ called pass plays because he hadn't called one in a while, not because the flow of the game dictated it. IDK when CPJ lost that feel for the game that he had his first couple years.

Yeah we would be moving the ball and then we throw down field and its incomplete and we have two plays to get ten yds.He certainly knows what he is doing but when you see eight in the box and the safety close looks like its time to uncork one.Of course if he completes a bomb he is a genius.

 

[Rodney Kent]

Mack; The Sunday School Teacher in our class is a retired preacher, but I am also quite learned in the scriptures, so we often get into debates over our views in our Tuesday morning Bible Topic meeting.

Sometimes, while teaching the class, he will cite a topic and state that he agrees with me on that topic. I generally remark, "Boy, that is scary"!

 

[alaguy]

I'm an financial investor.I take my cues from what works generally.
Based on this process,I'll bet that this yrs passing offense will-
have completion rate at below 50%
not be able to score TD from 70+ yds in last 2 min of any half vs a conf opponent