Option Football

[stigs02jrt]

How does that compare historically?

Probably the same ballpark as the Gailey years, where we were 7-5 every year and never beat UGA and never sniffed the top 25. Comparing to the CPJ years doesn't make sense because of the offense.

 

[slugboy]

Recruiting or Scheme? Tennessee version, FEI. Lower ranks are better:

Year

Recruiting Rank

School

Recruiting Points

Season

Rec

FBS

FEI

Rk

OFEI

Rk

DFEI

Rk

Coach

2007​

4​

Tennessee

284.42​

2007​

10-4

10-4

0.5​

20​

0.49​

15​

0.51​

41​

Phil Fulmer

2008​

33​

Tennessee

203.39​

2008​

5-7

5-7

0.06​

54​

-0.84​

100​

0.93​

18​

Phil Fulmer

2009​

8​

Tennessee

264.62​

2009​

7-6

7-6

0.49​

23​

0.41​

24​

0.81​

22​

Lane Kiffin

2010​

7​

Tennessee

271.56​

2010​

6-7

5-7

0.16​

49​

0.01​

53​

0.27​

47​

Derek Dooley

2011​

14​

Tennessee

253.78​

2011​

5-7

4-7

0.17​

48​

0.02​

48​

0.49​

38​

Derek Dooley

2012​

19​

Tennessee

242.81​

2012​

5-7

4-7

0.2​

49​

0.78​

16​

-0.33​

80​

Derek Dooley

2013​

25​

Tennessee

214.06​

2013​

5-7

4-7

0.03​

62​

-0.37​

83​

0.24​

52​

Butch Jones

2014​

7​

Tennessee

274.77​

2014​

7-6

6-6

0.48​

25​

0.2​

47​

0.72​

20​

Butch Jones

2015​

4​

Tennessee

286.26​

2015​

9-4

8-4

0.75​

7​

0.79​

17​

0.57​

24​

Butch Jones

2016​

14​

Tennessee

253.94​

2016​

9-4

8-4

0.4​

25​

0.7​

24​

0.07​

50​

Butch Jones

2017​

17​

Tennessee

237.21​

2017​

4-8

3-8

-0.28​

88​

-0.55​

103​

-0.01​

61​

Butch Jones

2018​

21​

Tennessee

231.34​

2018​

5-7

4-7

0.09​

57​

0.12​

60​

0.2​

46​

Jeremy Pruitt

2019​

13​

Tennessee

269.07​

2019​

8-5

7-5

0.19​

47​

-0.07​

76​

0.51​

25​

Jeremy Pruitt

2020​

10​

Tennessee

261.5​

2020​

3-7

3-7

-0.32​

92​

-0.28​

90​

-0.15​

66​

Jeremy Pruitt

2021​

16​

Tennessee

240.4​

2021​

7-6

6-6

0.55​

18​

1.14​

6​

-0.11​

66​

Josh Heupel

2022​

18​

Tennessee

232.77​

2022​

7-0

6-0

0.92​

6​

1.51​

5​

0.21​

42​

Josh Heupel

 

[cpf2001]

In 2020, Per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2021, per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2022, per Rivals, we were 29th in average stars.

i just don’t see how this makes the small classes look better. Even then it’s not too-25 even average rankings and not enough of it anyway.

If the next coach is hired in part on recruiting ability I hope they execute better and more consistently.

 

[stigs02jrt]

In 2020, Per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2021, per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2022, per Rivals, we were 29th in average stars.

LOL but you just agreed with RonJon that you don't trust the star ratings. I looked at the 247 player ratings which has much better granularity than simple stars. last couple of years, we're in the 40s.

Not to mention, you do realize the QUANTITY also matters in recruiting, don't you? UGA and Bama have 20-30 commits over the same period every year.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

LOL but you just agreed with RonJon that you don't trust the star ratings. I looked at the 247 player ratings which has much better granularity than simple stars. last couple of years, we're in the 40s.

Not to mention, you do realize the QUANTITY also matters in recruiting, don't you? UGA and Bama have 20-30 commits over the same period every year.

I don't, but you were using a set of data to prove a point that it doesn't prove.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Not to mention, you do realize the QUANTITY also matters in recruiting, don't you? UGA and Bama have 20-30 commits over the same period every year.

The rankings only take into account their top 20...

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

i just don’t see how this makes the small classes look better. Even then it’s not too-25 even average rankings and not enough of it anyway.

If the next coach is hired in part on recruiting ability I hope they execute better and more consistently.

Better players were being recruited under the CGC than under CPJ, at least as far as recruiting rankings were concerned.

 

[stigs02jrt]

I don't, but you were using a set of data to prove a point that it doesn't prove.

Huh? I said that we need a recruiter like Deion because recruiting is what college football is all about. A guy said "we already tried that with Collins". I pointed to the recruiting rankings saying he wasn't that great of a recruiter, especially if we are trying to be top 25 contenders. The data proves that point. The current product on the field proves that point.

 

[stigs02jrt]

Better players were being recruited under the CGC than under CPJ, at least as far as recruiting rankings were concerned.

As I said, comparing to the CPJ years makes no sense because of the TO offense.

 

[Ash]

I don't know if running more option will tank our recruiting. I do know that our current offensive scheme is stuck in neutral and headed backwards with the current level of recruited talent.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Huh? I said that we need a recruiter like Deion because recruiting is what college football is all about. A guy said "we already tried that with Collins". I pointed to the recruiting rankings saying he wasn't that great of a recruiter, especially if we are trying to be top 25 contenders. The data proves that point. The current product on the field proves that point.

And I just showed you the data says we were recruiting in the 30 range (you said ~40 when I questioned about average star). Your post was:

tried what? our last 4 years of recruiting rankings are 55, 47, 27 and 50.

The data shows that we weren't recruiting as poorly as a ranking that penalizes less than 20 recruits would indicate.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

As I said, comparing to the CPJ years makes no sense because of the TO offense.

That post wasn't a reply to you.

 

[stigs02jrt]

The rankings only take into account their top 20...

Not the 247 average player rating. And signing 23 players with a .8628 average rating is FAR better than signing 16 players with a .8628 average rating.

 

[southernhive]

y’all gotta stop acting like because collins was bad we can never try to recruit again

Fine, if y'all will stop acting like a unproven hyped up coach is the answer to our recruiting problems.

 

[stigs02jrt]

And I just showed you the data says we were recruiting in the 30 range (you said ~40 when I questioned about average star). Your post was:



The data shows that we weren't recruiting as poorly as a ranking that penalizes less than 20 recruits would indicate.

2022: 46th in average player rating on 247, and only 16 players.
2021: 43rd in average player rating on 247, only 17 players.
2020: 28th
2019: 49th

Above data doesn't take into account the QUANTITY of players, which is hugely important.

 

[slugboy]

2022: 46th in average player rating on 247, and only 16 players.
2021: 43rd in average player rating on 247, only 17 players.
2020: 28th
2019: 49th

Above data doesn't take into account the QUANTITY of players, which is hugely important.

If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.

 

[awbuzz]

In 2020, Per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2021, per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2022, per Rivals, we were 29th in average stars.

... Wish were in the top 40 in overall on the field play... The. I assume everyone on this site which is the same too.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

there is a significant difference between what the eagles and ravens (dolphins are doing absolutely nothing like an option offense) and what paul johnson did. the suggestion that you can’t recruit high ranking guys is a pretty objective truth. it is much harder to convince top athletes to come play with that offense than it is for other spread offenses. in the past decade we have like one offensive lineman in the nfl, top o line recruits are not coming to play in that offense.

getting chadwell is a risk because we can give him the benefit of the doubt about coastal not giving him resources but recruiting, just like any other aspect of coaching, is a skill that not everyone has.

No doubt some top recruits will not want to play in that offense, but some some incredible athletes will and do. I agree that it will be hard to get higher rated OL, but when have we recruited them well in the past twenty years. All we need to do is not take an antagonistic approach to recruiting and it can be better than what it was under CPJ. I am not suggesting we will start competing with SEC teams or Clemson and FSU, but we can do better than we did under CPJ and still run an differentiated option offense like the one Chadwell runs.

Also, Miami does run some RPO with Tua (I think he is 7th in league in RPO pass attempt despite missing a month), so I am not sure your point about them. Either way, I am not saying implement CPJ's offense or that it was or is the same as those NFL teams. Just that there are plenty of examples of NFL teams running option offenses that we could and should replicate with a new coach.

 

[awbuzz]

If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.

I imagine that about half the folks reading this just had their brains turn to mush or heads explode!

 

[stigs02jrt]

If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.

Well it's interesting data, but there are always exceptions to the rule. There are always going to be coaches that underperform and overperform the talent level. In the long run, talent wins out.

Heupel is doing great; can he recruit well enough to stay relevant over the next 5 years? We'll see.

A simple correlation study between annual recruiting rankings and, say, FEI 3 years later would show the real story. I think we both know the answer.