Option Football

stigs02jrt

Banned
Messages
88
How does that compare historically?
Probably the same ballpark as the Gailey years, where we were 7-5 every year and never beat UGA and never sniffed the top 25. Comparing to the CPJ years doesn't make sense because of the offense.
 

slugboy

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Staff member
Messages
11,491
Recruiting or Scheme? Tennessee version, FEI. Lower ranks are better:
YearRecruiting RankSchoolRecruiting PointsSeasonRecFBSFEIRkOFEIRkDFEIRkCoach
2007​
4​
Tennessee
284.42​
2007​
10-410-4
0.5​
20​
0.49​
15​
0.51​
41​
Phil Fulmer
2008​
33​
Tennessee
203.39​
2008​
5-75-7
0.06​
54​
-0.84​
100​
0.93​
18​
Phil Fulmer
2009​
8​
Tennessee
264.62​
2009​
7-67-6
0.49​
23​
0.41​
24​
0.81​
22​
Lane Kiffin
2010​
7​
Tennessee
271.56​
2010​
6-75-7
0.16​
49​
0.01​
53​
0.27​
47​
Derek Dooley
2011​
14​
Tennessee
253.78​
2011​
5-74-7
0.17​
48​
0.02​
48​
0.49​
38​
Derek Dooley
2012​
19​
Tennessee
242.81​
2012​
5-74-7
0.2​
49​
0.78​
16​
-0.33​
80​
Derek Dooley
2013​
25​
Tennessee
214.06​
2013​
5-74-7
0.03​
62​
-0.37​
83​
0.24​
52​
Butch Jones
2014​
7​
Tennessee
274.77​
2014​
7-66-6
0.48​
25​
0.2​
47​
0.72​
20​
Butch Jones
2015​
4​
Tennessee
286.26​
2015​
9-48-4
0.75​
7​
0.79​
17​
0.57​
24​
Butch Jones
2016​
14​
Tennessee
253.94​
2016​
9-48-4
0.4​
25​
0.7​
24​
0.07​
50​
Butch Jones
2017​
17​
Tennessee
237.21​
2017​
4-83-8
-0.28​
88​
-0.55​
103​
-0.01​
61​
Butch Jones
2018​
21​
Tennessee
231.34​
2018​
5-74-7
0.09​
57​
0.12​
60​
0.2​
46​
Jeremy Pruitt
2019​
13​
Tennessee
269.07​
2019​
8-57-5
0.19​
47​
-0.07​
76​
0.51​
25​
Jeremy Pruitt
2020​
10​
Tennessee
261.5​
2020​
3-73-7
-0.32​
92​
-0.28​
90​
-0.15​
66​
Jeremy Pruitt
2021​
16​
Tennessee
240.4​
2021​
7-66-6
0.55​
18​
1.14​
6​
-0.11​
66​
Josh Heupel
2022​
18​
Tennessee
232.77​
2022​
7-06-0
0.92​
6​
1.51​
5​
0.21​
42​
Josh Heupel

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cpf2001

Helluva Engineer
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1,262
In 2020, Per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2021, per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2022, per Rivals, we were 29th in average stars.
i just don’t see how this makes the small classes look better. Even then it’s not too-25 even average rankings and not enough of it anyway.

If the next coach is hired in part on recruiting ability I hope they execute better and more consistently.
 

stigs02jrt

Banned
Messages
88
In 2020, Per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2021, per Rivals, we were 31st in average stars.
In 2022, per Rivals, we were 29th in average stars.
LOL but you just agreed with RonJon that you don't trust the star ratings. I looked at the 247 player ratings which has much better granularity than simple stars. last couple of years, we're in the 40s.

Not to mention, you do realize the QUANTITY also matters in recruiting, don't you? UGA and Bama have 20-30 commits over the same period every year.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Location
Augusta, Georgia
LOL but you just agreed with RonJon that you don't trust the star ratings. I looked at the 247 player ratings which has much better granularity than simple stars. last couple of years, we're in the 40s.

Not to mention, you do realize the QUANTITY also matters in recruiting, don't you? UGA and Bama have 20-30 commits over the same period every year.

I don't, but you were using a set of data to prove a point that it doesn't prove.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Augusta, Georgia
i just don’t see how this makes the small classes look better. Even then it’s not too-25 even average rankings and not enough of it anyway.

If the next coach is hired in part on recruiting ability I hope they execute better and more consistently.

Better players were being recruited under the CGC than under CPJ, at least as far as recruiting rankings were concerned.
 

stigs02jrt

Banned
Messages
88
I don't, but you were using a set of data to prove a point that it doesn't prove.
Huh? I said that we need a recruiter like Deion because recruiting is what college football is all about. A guy said "we already tried that with Collins". I pointed to the recruiting rankings saying he wasn't that great of a recruiter, especially if we are trying to be top 25 contenders. The data proves that point. The current product on the field proves that point.
 

Ash

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
779
I don't know if running more option will tank our recruiting. I do know that our current offensive scheme is stuck in neutral and headed backwards with the current level of recruited talent.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Huh? I said that we need a recruiter like Deion because recruiting is what college football is all about. A guy said "we already tried that with Collins". I pointed to the recruiting rankings saying he wasn't that great of a recruiter, especially if we are trying to be top 25 contenders. The data proves that point. The current product on the field proves that point.

And I just showed you the data says we were recruiting in the 30 range (you said ~40 when I questioned about average star). Your post was:

tried what? our last 4 years of recruiting rankings are 55, 47, 27 and 50.

The data shows that we weren't recruiting as poorly as a ranking that penalizes less than 20 recruits would indicate.
 

stigs02jrt

Banned
Messages
88
And I just showed you the data says we were recruiting in the 30 range (you said ~40 when I questioned about average star). Your post was:



The data shows that we weren't recruiting as poorly as a ranking that penalizes less than 20 recruits would indicate.
2022: 46th in average player rating on 247, and only 16 players.
2021: 43rd in average player rating on 247, only 17 players.
2020: 28th
2019: 49th

Above data doesn't take into account the QUANTITY of players, which is hugely important.
 

slugboy

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11,491
2022: 46th in average player rating on 247, and only 16 players.
2021: 43rd in average player rating on 247, only 17 players.
2020: 28th
2019: 49th

Above data doesn't take into account the QUANTITY of players, which is hugely important.
If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.
 

leatherneckjacket

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Atlanta, GA
there is a significant difference between what the eagles and ravens (dolphins are doing absolutely nothing like an option offense) and what paul johnson did. the suggestion that you can’t recruit high ranking guys is a pretty objective truth. it is much harder to convince top athletes to come play with that offense than it is for other spread offenses. in the past decade we have like one offensive lineman in the nfl, top o line recruits are not coming to play in that offense.

getting chadwell is a risk because we can give him the benefit of the doubt about coastal not giving him resources but recruiting, just like any other aspect of coaching, is a skill that not everyone has.
No doubt some top recruits will not want to play in that offense, but some some incredible athletes will and do. I agree that it will be hard to get higher rated OL, but when have we recruited them well in the past twenty years. All we need to do is not take an antagonistic approach to recruiting and it can be better than what it was under CPJ. I am not suggesting we will start competing with SEC teams or Clemson and FSU, but we can do better than we did under CPJ and still run an differentiated option offense like the one Chadwell runs.

Also, Miami does run some RPO with Tua (I think he is 7th in league in RPO pass attempt despite missing a month), so I am not sure your point about them. Either way, I am not saying implement CPJ's offense or that it was or is the same as those NFL teams. Just that there are plenty of examples of NFL teams running option offenses that we could and should replicate with a new coach.
 
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awbuzz

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Marietta, GA
If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.
I imagine that about half the folks reading this just had their brains turn to mush or heads explode!
 

stigs02jrt

Banned
Messages
88
If you look at my post earlier in the thread, Tennessee has on average pulled a top 15 class yearly since 2007. Their worst class was 33 back in 2008, and they've pulled as high as a #4 class in that time. They've consistently underperformed their recruiting ranking until hiring Heupel, who runs a modified high school scheme offense.

So, with every coach except one since 2007, Tennessee has significantly underperformed their recruiting ranking under multiple coaches, including one who won a national title. Heupel, with a scheme offense, is the only coach that has overperformed vs his recruiting ranking.

This year, with a scheme offense, is the first time Tennessee has beaten Alabama since 2006.

It's one piece of evidence, but it's strong evidence that we overrate recruiting and we underrate scheme.
Well it's interesting data, but there are always exceptions to the rule. There are always going to be coaches that underperform and overperform the talent level. In the long run, talent wins out.

Heupel is doing great; can he recruit well enough to stay relevant over the next 5 years? We'll see.

A simple correlation study between annual recruiting rankings and, say, FEI 3 years later would show the real story. I think we both know the answer.
 
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