NCAA Tourney

[augustabuzz]

Every conference gets one automatic bid to its champion. Then it's up to the committee.

Apparently, they like to balance things out some since the RPI is far from the Holy Grail of predicting team capabilities. The committee likes to give the best conferences the most spots. But if you are really bad in your conference (ACC/SEC) then you won't make it even with a "high" RPI of 40 or better. Also, the committee apparently rewards the northern and western teams a bit too, but for different reasons. For northern and western teams, there are fewer high quality opponents to pump up the RPI in their vicinity so they are given an upward bias.

For example, one year UNC had a 29 RPI and didn't make the NCAAs since there were more "worthy" ACC teams in front of them that filled up the quota that they set for the ACC. We'll see some lower RPI teams (e.g.<40) pushed out by higher RPI teams (e.g. RPI >40) this year.

I really don't have a problem with how they do it since there are 300 teams competing for the top 64 spots. And it make sense to reward some of the smaller programs with an NCAA bid even though they (like us) have little chance to advance. It increases the interest in college baseball which is lacking (in my opinion). You can read and listen to a lot of the considerations on D1 Baseball, I have for the first time this year and have learned a lot. It makes the game more interesting.

BTW, Ohio State beat Michigan State and Iowa today to prevent either of those two from getting a stolen bid. (Also TCU beat WV to prevent a WV stolen bid. And Louisiana-Layafette beat Ga Southern to prevent GS from getting a stone bid.) So if @Stinger90 is right that the ACC gets 11 bids, we are in easily. Even with 9 bids, I think we are in.

Why would GT want to make it easy?

But the only opinion which counts is tomorrow evening.

Yes, that's my point. I hate participation trophies and if you choose a runner up in a conference that didn't warrant extra bids, then that is what you've done. The "spreading the wealth" is accomplished with the automatic bid.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Here is one guy from D1 Baseball's list of "bubble" teams:

Bubble Check (21 tms): LBSt Gonz USA Minn Wash OrgSt Duke BC WF UNC GT SELa Mich Neb BYU Creightn WVa Marshall Ala Ky Houston for 10 spots

D1 Baseball also made their final predictions and has GT in as a 3 seed at Miss State. They have 10 ACC teams with UNC being the odd man out.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Duplicate post, sorry...no idea why I'm even awake

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Duplicate post, sorry...no idea why I'm even awake

I usually wait till my first cup of tea before I post. As to getting up, it gets harder to sleep in the older you get. The good old days were in college and being able to sleep in till :30 before the first class or football game.

Yes, that's my point. I hate participation trophies and if you choose a runner up in a conference that didn't warrant extra bids, then that is what you've done. The "spreading the wealth" is accomplished with the automatic bid.

Understand your point. You'll be happy to know that in picking the hosts, the committee went a bit more with merit over adjusting for geography for the hosts. D1 Baseball picked 15 of 16 regional hosts - difference was the committee picked NC State (#10 RPI) to host over Arizona (#21). It'll be interesting to see how accurate they are for the rest of the field. Last year, one of the three moderators was 64 of 64.

In the 90 minute D1 podcast, they said there were 4 stolen bids this year and the usual is 2 or 3.

In my opinion @augustabuzz , there is not much of a participation trophy by having a lower RPI team in the tourney from a weak league getting in over a higher RPI team from a power conference. That's because the teams from the power conferences get a lot of credit for playing better teams whether they win or lose. They can have losing records in conference by a large margin and still have a high RPI (look at us). That is the "flaw" in the RPI calculation. There is a flaw in every ranking system where you have 300 teams who play so few meaningful out of conference games. I think the committee tries to get the teams most likely to do well and also considers the performance in the last month. (As to "spreading the wealth", I very much believe in that as a fiscal policy to promote social stability, but that is a political discussion.)

 

[Ramblinwreck07]

2 seed in the Florida regional. Tough draw

 

[OldJacketFan]

This time of year all draws are tough! It looks like the committee values Tech more than some of our fans do

 

[Ramblinwreck07]

All the bubble talk, and we get a 2 seed. Certainly aren't thrilled with having to go through Florida. But the draw is the draw. Have to play the hand we are dealt. Time for the pitching to step up.

 

[Squints]

This time of year all draws are tough! It looks like the committee values Tech more than some of our fans do

From what I've seen, there aren't very many people that value the team less than Tech fans do.

You'd have thought we just had a season like VT's based on what our fans have been saying.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This time of year all draws are tough! It looks like the committee values Tech more than some of our fans do

As I started this post, I thought we were a lock with the win over BC into the field of 8. Compared to our potential we had a bad season, in my opinion. (Compared to William & Mary we had one for the record books. (tic)) We haven't won a series since the sweep of Coastal which ended May first. I am surprised a bit that we got a #2 seed, but I think the committee rewarded Florida by putting in a weaker #2 and #3 seed (Connecticut is 51st). Just like they rewarded Louisville with a #35 Ohio State as the #2 seed and Wright State #41 as the #3 seed.

10 ACC teams - #1 - Clemson, Miami, UVa, NC State, FSU, Louisville; #2 seed - GT; #3 seed - BC, Duke & Wake. So UNC (RPI #19) got left off as expected. I think we are legitimately ahead of BC but not Duke and Wake based on end of season performance. It's going to be interesting to answer @augustabuzz 's thought and see who was left out based on RPI alone and how the seedings were done by RPI.

As far as strategy, I hope Hall saves Gold / Gorst for Florida and we try to beat UConn with Parr or Dulaney. If ..... never mind. It will come down to trying to get the first win or playing to win the region. Our reward if we win the region is to go to FSU probably. So it never gets easier.

But I'm glad we have more baseball.

 

[65Jacket]

Lets face it, we would have been hosting a Regional if we had our injured starting pitchers. We did very well considering we had one reliable starter and one reliable bullpen pitcher. That is why we went 1-2 in so many series.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Interesting so far ..... of the top 40 RPI teams only 3 didn't make it:
19 - UNC (Bobinski better not expect a Christmas card from them)
37 - UGAg
38 - Michigan

 

[FredJacket]

Florida draw. Agree with @GTNavyNuke, the teams headed to Gainesville are more about the committee taking care of the Gators as #1 national seed.

But we're a #2 seed and that's great! I like it.

Timeout for crazy talk ... Is there a path for Super Regional at the Rusty C? We prevail in Gainesville (obviously) and FSU is ousted in their regional. Is that it or can another team in Tallahassee get the Super Regional ahead of us?

I think it was Bobby Dodd who said...
"If you wanna BE THE MAN, you gotta BEAT THE MAN."

...or maybe that was Ric Flair.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Looks like this year was very much based on RPI. Other than the exclusions (UNC, UGAg, Michigan) it pretty much by RPI and by conference champs.

I think we got #2 seed based on first making the cut and then once we did make the cut we were given a #2 seed based on #20 RPI. But why Wake and Duke didn't I don't understand. You can see the pattern below.

Only a few "mercy" selections:
#55 Washington, probably because the people out west scream about how unfair the RPI is given the local competition.
#50 Minnesota - if you play in that cold you deserve a break
#49 South Alabama - never been to an NCAA before
#47 Nebraska - not sure why since UNC, UGAg, Michigan, Oregon St, Creigton and Northwestern were above them and not going.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

All the bubble talk, and we get a 2 seed. Certainly aren't thrilled with having to go through Florida. But the draw is the draw. Have to play the hand we are dealt. Time for the pitching to step up.

FWIW, D1 Baseball was right on all 64 teams. Only their seeding was off. So I think GT was very much a bubble team despite being a 2 seed. I think the 2 seed came once the committee decided we were in. No favor going to the home of the #1 RPI team in the country. But Florida has lost 4 times in 33 games this year so we have a chance .......... Florida only has to lose twice ........

 

[crl85]

I would pitch Parr against Uconn, then gold vs uf, then gorst vs uf.... If we could somehow get great games from them we could be in business. Will need pitching AND bats next wknd but I think we have played better teams this year so who knows. thoughts?

 

[GTNavyNuke]

FWIW, D1 Baseball was right on all 64 teams. Only their seeding was off. So I think GT was very much a bubble team despite being a 2 seed. I think the 2 seed came once the committee decided we were in. No favor going to the home of the #1 RPI team in the country. But Florida has lost 4 times in 33 games this year so we have a chance .......... Florida only has to lose twice ........

My bad, D1 was only right on 63 of 64. I should cancel my subscription. (tic) They picked Oregon State (not in) over Nebraska (in). I could make a crude joke about my preference for the Oregon State's mascot versus Nebraska's , but I'll pass ......

Here's what they said about us - they did pick us over UNC but only with a lot of debate. "An oddity in this postseason field was the difference between Georgia Tech and North Carolina. I realize the Yellow Jackets had the head-to-head series win in Chapel Hill over North Carolina, but how in the world were the Yellow Jackets a two seed, while UNC didn’t even get into the field? That’s perplexing to me. After all, UNC had the better RPI, a better record vs. RPI Top 50 and perhaps most striking, UNC had a non-conference SOS of 12 as opposed to 63 for the Jackets. The head-to-head aspect makes that at least a defendable case, but still, the Tar Heels have a legitimate beef. ........."

I would pitch Parr against Uconn, then gold vs uf, then gorst vs uf.... If we could somehow get great games from them we could be in business. Will need pitching AND bats next wknd but I think we have played better teams this year so who knows. thoughts?

I love the idea of starting Gold and then Gorst. But as you say only against Florida, if we beat UConn. And only if we don't have to have Gorst for the Gold save. Hall needs to have Parr / Dulaney dialed in to beat UConn to set this up. Gold and Gorst are probably both going to get drafted, this will help them make more of a splash just before the 9 June draft.

 

[awbuzz]

Florida draw. Agree with @GTNavyNuke, the teams headed to Gainesville are more about the committee taking care of the Gators as #1 national seed.

But we're a #2 seed and that's great! I like it.

Timeout for crazy talk ... Is there a path for Super Regional at the Rusty C? We prevail in Gainesville (obviously) and FSU is ousted in their regional. Is that it or can another team in Tallahassee get the Super Regional ahead of us?

I think it was Bobby Dodd who said...
"If you wanna BE THE MAN, you gotta BEAT THE MAN."

...or maybe that was Ric Flair.

Wooooh!!!! [emoji6] (can hear Ric [emoji3] )


Let's get to the next level and then worry about the Supers.

 

[RoosterJacket]

Wonder if UCONN is going to pitch their ace vs us on Friday? He's supposed to be really good. We need a combination of Parr/Gibson/Dulaney and then one of Pitts/Ryan to all really step up this weekend; even more than that, our offense has to hit the ball again. The pitching was not really the problem in the 3 ACC pool play games; it wasn't outstanding, but it was enough to have given our team a chance to be in each game (really talking more about Miami and FSU games since we should've won NCST).

 

[up state jacket]

If our defense wasn't so poor, I would like our chances. Giving away outs has already burned us and looking into my crystal ball I see us continuing to blow games we should win. Hoping for the best, I'd love to see some old magic and tech playing in a super. The bats need to get white hot.

 

[65Jacket]

Hall is pitching Gold against UConn. He said it.