Mostly “Fire Geoff Collins”, some reminiscing, maybe bourbon or other distractions

[gtg936g]

For what it’s worth, we had big donors at the game yesterday. They watched the carnage in person.

What quarter did they leave?

 

[LibertyTurns]

OMG here come the mutt fans. We got enough misery without them infecting our board. We get it fleabags, our team sucks right now. We’re hoping history repeats itself & you lose in dramatic fashion and the only trophy you got in your trophy case is your annual pre-season #1 trophy you bestow upon yourselves.

 

[Gomez Adams]

Unfortunately, his mediocre seasons look much better than Collins’ results.

Again, nobody ever said it didn't.

The point is that Tech wanted to do better than mediocre. That people can't grab hold of that idea is simply mind boggling.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Army also has the distinct advantage of being an independent and not having to play a conference schedule against multiple national title winners.

Irrelevant. They would beat us head to head.

 

[gtg936g]

Again, nobody ever said it didn't.

The point is that Tech wanted to do better than mediocre. That people can't grab hold of that idea is simply mind boggling.

I don’t believe that. The “people” that wanted CPJ out financially strangled the program and he won in spite of it. If they really wanted success the recruiting staff would have been in place long ago. It would have been a cheap investment that would have probably led to more wins. It just didn’t fit the narrative that they wanted.

 

[Vespidae]

The point is that Tech wanted to do better than mediocre.

I think you are oversimplifying the issue. To be clear, the GTAA wanted CPJ gone after the 2013. To say he had a strained relation with the AD at the time is an understatement. However, ANY coach that consistently win 7 games at a Top 50 STEM school is worthy of respect.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Again, nobody ever said it didn't.

The point is that Tech wanted to do better than mediocre. That people can't grab hold of that idea is simply mind boggling.

Saying the years under CPJ were mediocre is mind boggling. Had the people who thought that lobbied for more money for recruiting we wouldn’t be in this fix.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I don’t believe that. The “people” that wanted CPJ out financially strangled the program and he won in spite of it. If they really wanted success the recruiting staff would have been in place long ago. It would have been a cheap investment that would have probably led to more wins. It just didn’t fit the narrative that they wanted.

Can’t like this enough.

 

[GTpdm]

I skipped 2011 and 2014 as well. The point was to show the sheer number of mediocre seasons. There were far more of them than anything else, hence GT's wanting to make a change.

So six is "far more" than five? And that was the basis for GT "wanting to make a change"? Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a conclusion you've made, based on a selective recollection of the facts at hand.

Again, nobody ever said it didn't.

The point is that Tech wanted to do better than mediocre. That people can't grab hold of that idea is simply mind boggling.

And the linchpin of your argument is to throw out the nearly half the seasons under Johnson's tenure, in which we weren't mediocre. I'll borrow a term I recently heard...mind-boggling.

 

[kittysniper101]

A one off fluke. Fact is, he started out 9-4, then 11-3, then it was mediocrity or losing every year after that with the exception of 2014. Let's review:

2010: 6-7
2012: 7-7
2013: 7-6
2015: 3-9
2017: 5-6
2018: 7-6

You can't maintain any sort of winning success with an offense most high schools don't even run anymore.

Lmao can’t even answer this without lying and omitting 2016. Come on if you want to criticize the previous regime, fine whatever. But it’s been beat to death. I loved CPJ but it was also time to go and I will forever appreciate him for bowing out the way he did.

With that said, it’s all in the past and if the past was “complete failure” in your words, let’s be honest about where we are now.

 

[Towaliga]

I think you are oversimplifying the issue. To be clear, the GTAA wanted CPJ gone after the 2013. To say he had a strained relation with the AD at the time is an understatement. However, ANY coach that consistently win 7 games at a Top 50 STEM school is worthy of respect.

I got an email within the past week asking for money. In the email, they point out that in 2017 the football team had 28 members on staff and today they have 40. That’s a 43% increase. Anyone that doesn’t think CPJ was winning while coaching with 1 hand tied behind his back is letting their dislike of him cloud their objectivity. Give me CPJ’s mediocrity any day. His worst year for the entire time was as good as CGC’s best year since he’s been here.

 

[Js-showman]

I never hated Paul Johnson.

I didn't like his hiring for one reason only: His offense was old, outdated and had no hope of lasting. There's a reason Oklahoma and Nebraska gave it up decades ago: it's a gimmick. It will fool people for a little while, but once they get used to seeing it, it's over.

That is exactly what happened: A few good years while people were fooled by an offense they hadn't seen in years, but then complete failure once they got used to seeing it.

It was fun while it lasted, but it never had any real hope of lasting.

Unreal. So we should throw out any system that doesn’t follow the factory formula for winning.

 

[Js-showman]

I never hated Paul Johnson.

I didn't like his hiring for one reason only: His offense was old, outdated and had no hope of lasting. There's a reason Oklahoma and Nebraska gave it up decades ago: it's a gimmick. It will fool people for a little while, but once they get used to seeing it, it's over.

That is exactly what happened: A few good years while people were fooled by an offense they hadn't seen in years, but then complete failure once they got used to seeing it.

It was fun while it lasted, but it never had any real hope of lasting.

The moderator should pin this post for all to see. It precisely summarizes why we are in the current mess.

 

[orientalnc]

Other people made decisions that ended Paul Johnson's time at Ga Tech. It could be it was just what he said when he announced his resignation. But, the offense that was "doomed to fail" averaged 45 points a game in his last season.

 

[Vespidae]

The moderator should pin this post for all to see. It precisely summarizes why we are in the current mess.

Meh. I think CPJ would have fared far better with a) a P5 defense, b) real strength and conditioning, and c) hiring coordinators and not friends.

You can make anything work if you commit. We never did. Instead, we had a system that was in the mind of one, very brilliant coach which went downhill as his assistants moved on.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

So six is "far more" than five? And that was the basis for GT "wanting to make a change"? Sounds like you are trying to rationalize a conclusion you've made, based on a selective recollection of the facts at hand.

And the linchpin of your argument is to throw out the nearly half the seasons under Johnson's tenure, in which we weren't mediocre. I'll borrow a term I recently heard...mind-boggling.

But you make up the narrative ahead of time to fit your preferences and then mold the facts accordingly.

Most every team not named Alabama has a down year, misses on a key recruit, has a game lost to refs, has a devastating rash of injuries, loses a game in which one or two plays could have gone either way, plays well but the record doesn’t reflect it, loses several games in a year by less than a single score, and so on. When these all happened with CPJ it was because of that darn triple option. With CGC suddenly all of these mitigating circumstances become legitimate again.

I wish some people would admit this obvious hypocrisy but that would not fit their preconceived narrative.

 

[ilovetheoption]

Other people made decisions that ended Paul Johnson's time at Ga Tech. It could be it was just what he said when he announced his resignation. But, the offense that was "doomed to fail" averaged 45 points a game in his last season.

Fwiw, under Collins, through 3 years, GT had scored 45 or more points in a game 4 times

 

[wvGT11]

There is a common trend with this thread, everyone ***** and complain about Collins, then we're back at CPJ. Can we just put the CPJ talk to bed...

 

[GTcanWINagain]

(Bear with me, long-*** post.)

Stepping aside and attempting to look at it objectively, this is a fascinating situation from a hiring strategy and budgeting sense.

First off, I’m shocked at the lack of performance (as are most of us). All else aside, I expected at least some performance from the coordinators and assistants. Should we retain them?

On defense, it’s obviously pretty bad. Looking at assistants, I have seen the D-ends getting some good pressure over the past few games. Honestly not sure if that’s play calling or the group, but I can give Marco Coleman the benefit of the doubt, because their performance seems to be somewhat consistent. But the linebackers are meh, and the secondary has gotten increasingly worse not just every season, but every GAME.

Offense, meanwhile, is not awful, but decidedly mediocre. I’m still surprised the O-line under Key is still so bad 3 seasons in. Choice seems to be the only offensive coach that’s not…well, offensive. Would hate to lose him. But I suppose one man cannot make a coaching staff.

All of this is to say, a common (& perhaps justified) thought on this board and elsewhere is that we should clean house of coordinators and assistants, and give CGC a better OC and DC and maybe an experienced analyst to coach HIM up.

But I think there’s a fallacy there. Consider:

1 - common logic has it that the buyout amount goes down dramatically after next year. This means if we retain CGC, he’s at best a lame duck next year in need of a serious change in results.

2 - what coordinator - up and coming or not - will want to come in under a coach who the economics say only has 1 year remaining unless he turns it around dramatically?

I would love to have someone like Nate Woody back as DC. But someone with his talent would be a fool to come here. First off, Woody has already been the victim of bad timing once. Are we going to be able to turn this around with an unproven DC & OC? Particularly ones whom Collins hires?

& 3 - overall, what up-and-coming coordinator will want to coach under Collins given his record - and his, well, schtick?
—-

In addition to that, let’s look at the buyout. Per the terms of his contract, If we fire Collins after this year, we owe him $13.8M (minus whatever he’s hired for in another role - which let’s face it, won’t likely happen, so let’s not even consider that).

Meanwhile, If we fire him after next season - ostensibly to save a lot of money - the buyout goes down to 7.2M. But we have to pay him for another god-awful season (I.e., next season) of “coaching” at $3.3M. So really the cost of keeping him for another season, then letting him go is actually $10.5M.

Ergo, effectively, it’s not a $7M difference in cost - because retaining him next year will cost us $3.3M, and for that we’ll get another season of his ‘performance.’ That’s not exactly money well spent - if we’re spending that either way, will it be worth that much to NOT have him on the sidelines?.

IOW, it only costs us an extra $3.3M net on paper to fire him after this season. The rest, we’re paying either way.

We also have to consider other costs. What happens to season ticket sales next season?

And then there’s the team. Part of the strategy for hiring CGC was to maybe not have huge success, but to at least be mediocre and to leave the cupboard full for the next coach. Most of us can agree we failed on the mediocre part of that.
At this point, however, I find myself thinking: Tech recruits are smart. They’ll likely not buy the “we’re turning this around’ story for that much longer. And much like coordinators worth a salt, most smart recruits will think twice about wanting to play for a dead man walking.

And that’s not even considering current players. We now have a slew of talented players - and most talented players aren’t accustomed to losing. Most don’t like it. I wonder how long it will be before CGC loses control of the locker room? Will we start to lose talented players to the transfer portal?

All things considered, there’s a definite potential for a sunk cost fallacy here. The question being, is it worth saving $3.3M (the difference in cost after keeping him 1 more year) on paper, but suffering the fallout of another 3-win season? Or do we punt now, eat the extra $3.3M cost, and move on?

$3.3M is a lot of cash - but at this point, I see the potential damages of keeping him around for another season to be equal to or worse than that payout. Seems like a big gamble whether or not current recruits and players stay at this point, or whether season tickets remain the same in a non-COFH year. I personally wouldn’t want to keep throwing good money after bad - Will be interesting to see what Stansbury does.

(Apologies for the long post. If you’ve read this, you are a gentleman and a scholar for watching as I worked this all out on digital paper).

Very well done analysis! Given the posts on our attendance slide, I believe that Tech fans will support, pay, and show up for “competitive” football. This is the Chan Gailey days and the data shows this. We all know his 0 for against UGA was a source of angst as was Reggie Ball. However, this was light years better than our current reality! I went to that awful ACC Championship game in JAX that we lost to Wake…but now it’s a fond memory of a time when winning seasons were the expectation here! Performance, not excuses. If you are a Tech man, you solve problems for a living. This is definitely one that needs our full brain power! This so-called “transition” is an unmitigated failure and should be taken out of the hands of Collins, and perhaps even Stansbury!

 

[Northeast Stinger]

There is a common trend with this thread, everyone ***** and complain about Collins, then we're back at CPJ. Can we just put the CPJ talk to bed...

We’re still undecided about how to interpret history. As long as one, highly overwrought history prevails, we will see what we are currently seeing now over and over. All the anti-Paul Johnson juice is precisely why we got Collins.

We can move on from flexbone option football if don’t keep using it to justify why we needed Collins so bad. My god, some people on this site were even saying that having a tight-end would raise us to a new promised land of football prominence.

You can’t make this stuff up.