Louisville (-5) vs Georgia Tech

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SteamWhistle said:
Dude we are 4th in the ACC for Total Offense, and many teams have played a cupcake and we haven’t. Tired of everyone acting like we can’t move the ball, penalties and turnovers only thing holding us back. We play one clean game and we will look dominant.
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slugboy

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SteamWhistle said:
Dude we are 4th in the ACC for Total Offense, and many teams have played a cupcake and we haven’t. Tired of everyone acting like we can’t move the ball, penalties and turnovers only thing holding us back. We play one clean game and we will look dominant.
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Syracuse was kinda supposed to be our cupcake. Turns out FSU was.
A clean game on Offense, Defense, and Special Teams should be a win, though
 
boger2337

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4shotB said:
This just sounds cool. I have a spare $5.41 this morning. If i were to wager it this morning on the Jackets, would I be then considered a "large sharp player" in the gambling community? Could I get my room comped in Vegas? Asking for a friend.
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Lol I'd be willing to "bet" ;), that if we took everyone on this site what they wanted to gamble on the Jackets for this game we still couldn't get a room comped. 🤣😂
 
GCdaJuiceMan

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4shotB said:
This just sounds cool. I have a spare $5.41 this morning. If i were to wager it this morning on the Jackets, would I be then considered a "large sharp player" in the gambling community? Could I get my room comped in Vegas? Asking for a friend.
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$5.41?

Thats 5 me "units"
 

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slugboy said:
Syracuse was kinda supposed to be our cupcake. Turns out FSU was.
A clean game on Offense, Defense, and Special Teams should be a win, though
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Syracuse is not a good team. They only had 2 drives against us that went more than 50 yards. But when you have a -4 turnover margin, you basically give yourself 8 possessions while the opponent has 16 instead of 12-12. It’s hard to beat any team at all with that type of disadvantage.
 
GTNavyNuke

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I really think our running backs are going to give us more and more chances to win if we can slow our heads down and cut out the mistakes. We're averaging 5.7 yards per play overall, including 4.9 yards per play rushing. Its almost silly we don't score more than we do. We had 40 carries against Syracuse, just from our running backs. Getting something like 18/12/10 between Gibbs, Smith, Griffin keeps them all fresh and hot on the field. That puts a lot of pressure on the defense when you can keep swapping in very fresh dynamic running backs.
 
boger2337

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Looking at this game in more detail I would say the under is a pretty solid bet. 64 is the number

64 is high.

Mostly due to a UCF team that would score 30 on most teams not in the top 10 in football.
AND a bad showing against a Cuse team that was desperate, playing at home, and they had a weird screwy fake covid scare pregame to mess up our mojo.

Louisville's offense hasn't been stellar so far this year, and most would bet they find their rhythm against us. I beg to differ. We will now return some defensive help minus Swilling, have both TEs back, and hopefully Clayton is up to speed after a sleepy first start in Syracuse. Louisville is probably good for 24 points.

Now for GT.... Can we not turn the ball over? Or will we find new ways to give the defense the ball? I think we come down from 4-5 turnovers, but still give the ball away 2-3 times. My bet is on 2 turnovers, with us getting 2 ourselves. This makes for a mostly even playing field. I think with 2 or less turnovers we can put up 27-30 points.

As you can see where I am going with this... Both teams putting up extremely respectful points say 27 and 24. This still falls 2 TDs short of the over. Barring some garbage time TD one way or the other, this game should fall in the 50s.

This is about the only way I would play this game, other than teasing the under and GT 6 points which would give me under 70 and GT +11.

@RyanS12 thoughts?
 
herb

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boger2337 said:
Line opened at 6 via sports action and has now moved to 4.5 towards GT. 99% of the money is on GT while 60% of the bets are on Louisville. Meaning some extremely large sharp action is on GT. Promising sign!
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Where do you get that info? (not doubting you at all, I like seeing that information) vegasinsider has 84% of money on "Cuse but i have doubted in the past how accurate it is. thanks
 

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boger2337 said:
Looking at this game in more detail I would say the under is a pretty solid bet. 64 is the number

64 is high.

Mostly due to a UCF team that would score 30 on most teams not in the top 10 in football.
AND a bad showing against a Cuse team that was desperate, playing at home, and they had a weird screwy fake covid scare pregame to mess up our mojo.

Louisville's offense hasn't been stellar so far this year, and most would bet they find their rhythm against us. I beg to differ. We will now return some defensive help minus Swilling, have both TEs back, and hopefully Clayton is up to speed after a sleepy first start in Syracuse. Louisville is probably good for 24 points.

Now for GT.... Can we not turn the ball over? Or will we find new ways to give the defense the ball? I think we come down from 4-5 turnovers, but still give the ball away 2-3 times. My bet is on 2 turnovers, with us getting 2 ourselves. This makes for a mostly even playing field. I think with 2 or less turnovers we can put up 27-30 points.

As you can see where I am going with this... Both teams putting up extremely respectful points say 27 and 24. This still falls 2 TDs short of the over. Barring some garbage time TD one way or the other, this game should fall in the 50s.

This is about the only way I would play this game, other than teasing the under and GT 6 points which would give me under 70 and GT +11.

@RyanS12 thoughts?
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Take the under. I see the score in the 27-24 range. I think if we cut our turnovers in half we win. If you tease the line and O/U up that much you should be safe.
 
boger2337

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herb said:
Where do you get that info? (not doubting you at all, I like seeing that information) vegasinsider has 84% of money on "Cuse but i have doubted in the past how accurate it is. thanks
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I have the Action Network app. If you're subscribed it will give you some decent models, trends, and where the sharp money is going. Showing Ville getting 60% of the bets, but 99% of the total money from all spread bets are on GT. Differential of 59% from bet% to money%.

Anytime you can get a Differential between 20-30 it is pretty solid. Anything over 30 is scary because Vegas doesn't like to lose money. The line moving towards GT is encouraging, but I wouldn't touch us under a touchdown. I think 7 is the true number here. I doubt we lose by 14, but can see a 7point loss. 4.5-5.5 is no man's land. Only covering 1 key number in 3. Key numbers are 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, 17, 21. These are numbers games mostly land on with the final score differential.
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LibertyTurns

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smokey_wasp said:
That and the 450 yards of offense we keep putting up. They have to hedge a bit that we will play clean one week.
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I boldly made that prediction last week. Keeping my mouth shut predicting games until the program gets stable. We just got too many unknowns. Personally, I’m going to try my best to be patient. I got so used to overachieving. Have to get accustomed to the new normal.
 
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