How Important is Recruiting?

danny daniel

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Good question.
How about Bama pre Saban? Georgia pre Kirby? Clemson pre Dabo? A couple years ago, they were about to run harbaugh out of Ann Arbor...What explains the down years for any of these programs? Their recruiting didn’t change but their results sure did.
The Tenn example earlier in this thread was a good one too.
My take from a coaching perspective: You need a scheme that you can win with when you can recruit the players for the scheme. It works together. If you cannot recruit those players you have to adapt your scheme and this may lower your chances of winning. If you do not adjust your scheme to fit what you recruited then you end up with the Collins mess.
 

BleedGoldNWhite21

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I think some people have too much of a defeatist attitude about recruiting here, but I equally think some people are completely unrealistic about the challenges of recruiting here. I also think too many people think of “coaching” over recruiting as a campaign for a “gimmick” system. None of these things are inherently true. You can find a coach who’s number one strength is scheme and player development that still runs something that’s attractive to players wanting to play in the NFL and still puts an emphasis on recruiting.

I think I would prefer a coach who’s greatest strengths are scheme and player development over one who’s greatest strength is recruiting, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think recruiting doesn’t matter.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Your reading comprehension needs some work. Recruiting the JIMMYS and JOES is the basis of any successful program. Without the JIMMYS and JOES, coaching and development at its highest level can not be successful for any length of time. Ask Clemson how they stay on top. (side note, Miami plays like an bunch of individuals looking to flash to get to the league. No TEAM involved)
Miami fans say that their recruiting has fallen off with some implying that the quality and quantity of talent in South Beach is not what it used to be. We should have such problems.
 

Heisman's Ghost

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Believe what you want. There's ample proof that CJ's grade wasn't retroactively changed. CJ's grade has been discussed for decades now, and you can go to other GT forums to see it rehashed.

Anyhow, this is my last post on this.
There were times when Reggie was having a bad day throwing the ball that he would bring Calvin's grade down to about a 3 star but when we were playing Auburn or Miami, he would have Calvin at a 5 star in no time worth mentioning. It kind of reminds me of what Joe Hamilton once said about ongoing discussions about his size being less than ideal. "I may not be 6'2'' but I play like it".
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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If we don’t recruit a good QB, it won’t matter. Then you have to recruit a good supporting cast on offense and defense. Then you have to keep them. Then coach them. Results will follow.
 

EE95_curse EMAG!

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Recruiting is VERY important. It alone cannot predict success. You can predict that without good recruiting, the chances at a National Title, much less an ACC championship are going to be very rare or never. I will say yet again, there is NO REASON Georgia Tech football cannot be a top 25 recruiting school, year in and year out. There is no reason we cannot get a handful of 4 star players, with the occasional 5 star player. Why we seem to have 20 or so 3-star players every year and little interest from the 300 plus 5 and 4 star players is beyond me. A big selling point is they'd be BMOC and probably a lock to start as true freshman, unlike if they go to Bama, UGA, Clemson, Ohio State and other recruiting behemoths.

So yes, recruiting is probably second most important criteria, with the first being track record of IMPROVING a program...no caretakers where a program actually takes a small step back over a couple of years after the prior genius coach left.
 

stigs02jrt

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How is the analysis faulty because it only includes 22 teams instead of 25? Those 22 were the only ones who averaged a top 25 class. Something you’re saying we have to do to compete.

If anything your analysis is faulty. Your data can be heavily skewed by just one “lightning in a bottle” season. For example, Florida State finished ranked 14th in 2015 and 8th in 2016. Then from 2017-19 they went a combined 18-20. Were they really the 19th best team in the country over that period?
Baylor finished 13th in both 2015 and 2019, and went 15-23 between 2016-‘18.

If this 5 year period were from 2014-2018, Georgia Tech would’ve had 17 “points” on this scale. I’m sure the numbers would’ve changed a little bit, but that would put us just outside the top 25 best programs based on one single year. Can you not see how flawed that is?

If you want to talk about finishing in the top 25 consistently then applying a weighted scale to ranked finishes is not how you measure consistency. In my post we established that basically nobody recruiting outside the top 5 consistently even has a chance at a national title. So everyone else is more or less equal, especially outside the top 15. We aren’t going to recruit in the top 5, and we’ve never recruited in the top 15, but you want to continue to harp on that being the goal.
That’s not a realistic goal. It’s not happening. Not with Deion. Not with Chadwell. Not with Lincoln Riley. Not with Kirby Smart. Georgia Tech will not consistently be a top 15 destination. It won’t. Deion won’t fix that. And the numbers show that anybody recruiting outside the top 15 has just as much of a chance to finish ranked as the schools recruiting at 16-25.

Am I saying recruiting is not important? NO. Absolutely not. Recruiting is definitely important. But it is not the end-all-be-all. Once again, look at Tennessee. They have recruited in the top 20 forever and had losing records. A turnover on their coaching staff and now they’re Natty contenders. Recruiting is DEFINITELY important, but hiring a coach based solely on his recruiting abilities is an exercise in futility.
Lol I took five years of data. You want to point at outliers in the data to prove it's faulty?

No one ever said we need to recruit top 15. I said we need 25 recruiting to be consistent top 25 team. No, we haven't done that, so no, we haven't been a confident top 25 team. But we CAN with the right coach
How is the analysis faulty because it only includes 22 teams instead of 25? Those 22 were the only ones who averaged a top 25 class. Something you’re saying we have to do to compete.

If anything your analysis is faulty. Your data can be heavily skewed by just one “lightning in a bottle” season. For example, Florida State finished ranked 14th in 2015 and 8th in 2016. Then from 2017-19 they went a combined 18-20. Were they really the 19th best team in the country over that period?
Baylor finished 13th in both 2015 and 2019, and went 15-23 between 2016-‘18.

If this 5 year period were from 2014-2018, Georgia Tech would’ve had 17 “points” on this scale. I’m sure the numbers would’ve changed a little bit, but that would put us just outside the top 25 best programs based on one single year. Can you not see how flawed that is?

If you want to talk about finishing in the top 25 consistently then applying a weighted scale to ranked finishes is not how you measure consistency. In my post we established that basically nobody recruiting outside the top 5 consistently even has a chance at a national title. So everyone else is more or less equal, especially outside the top 15. We aren’t going to recruit in the top 5, and we’ve never recruited in the top 15, but you want to continue to harp on that being the goal.
That’s not a realistic goal. It’s not happening. Not with Deion. Not with Chadwell. Not with Lincoln Riley. Not with Kirby Smart. Georgia Tech will not consistently be a top 15 destination. It won’t. Deion won’t fix that. And the numbers show that anybody recruiting outside the top 15 has just as much of a chance to finish ranked as the schools recruiting at 16-25.

Am I saying recruiting is not important? NO. Absolutely not. Recruiting is definitely important. But it is not the end-all-be-all. Once again, look at Tennessee. They have recruited in the top 20 forever and had losing records. A turnover on their coaching staff and now they’re Natty contenders. Recruiting is DEFINITELY important, but hiring a coach based solely on his recruiting abilities is an exercise in futility.
You do realize that"lightning in a bottle"seasons work both ways don't you? You are so obsessed with outliers, outliers work both ways. That's why I use as much data as possible, to mitigate outlier effect.

The weighted average is absolutely the right way to evaluate these teams, because there's a difference between #1 and #25 finishes. It's the closest thing available to AVERAGE FINISH that I could find.

Fact remains, the top 25 recruiting teams over those 5 years made up 70% of the top 25 teams of those 5 years.

Now try to prove YOUR point: show us that 71% of the top 25 teams over those 5 years had "scheme"coaches.

PS, tell us how heupels "scheme" is doing against Georgia talent today 🤣🤣
 

stigs02jrt

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Where do you think the other 64% of the variance of team’s performance is coming from? Not to mention other posters already demonstrated that it’s quite easy to end up unranked even with highly ranked recruits.

If you believe that Deion is a really good coach and brings more to the table than just recruiting that’s fine. That belief just isn’t based in a lot of evidence. While we’re playing hypotheticals, what happens if we don’t win in Deions first year? How much does that derail recruiting hype?
The other 64% might be a combination of 100 different factors, who knows, it's not in the paper. For all we know, the 36% for recruiting might be FAR AND Away the biggest factor.
 

stigs02jrt

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How is the analysis faulty because it only includes 22 teams instead of 25? Those 22 were the only ones who averaged a top 25 class. Something you’re saying we have to do to compete.

If anything your analysis is faulty. Your data can be heavily skewed by just one “lightning in a bottle” season. For example, Florida State finished ranked 14th in 2015 and 8th in 2016. Then from 2017-19 they went a combined 18-20. Were they really the 19th best team in the country over that period?
Baylor finished 13th in both 2015 and 2019, and went 15-23 between 2016-‘18.

If this 5 year period were from 2014-2018, Georgia Tech would’ve had 17 “points” on this scale. I’m sure the numbers would’ve changed a little bit, but that would put us just outside the top 25 best programs based on one single year. Can you not see how flawed that is?

If you want to talk about finishing in the top 25 consistently then applying a weighted scale to ranked finishes is not how you measure consistency. In my post we established that basically nobody recruiting outside the top 5 consistently even has a chance at a national title. So everyone else is more or less equal, especially outside the top 15. We aren’t going to recruit in the top 5, and we’ve never recruited in the top 15, but you want to continue to harp on that being the goal.
That’s not a realistic goal. It’s not happening. Not with Deion. Not with Chadwell. Not with Lincoln Riley. Not with Kirby Smart. Georgia Tech will not consistently be a top 15 destination. It won’t. Deion won’t fix that. And the numbers show that anybody recruiting outside the top 15 has just as much of a chance to finish ranked as the schools recruiting at 16-25.

Am I saying recruiting is not important? NO. Absolutely not. Recruiting is definitely important. But it is not the end-all-be-all. Once again, look at Tennessee. They have recruited in the top 20 forever and had losing records. A turnover on their coaching staff and now they’re Natty contenders. Recruiting is DEFINITELY important, but hiring a coach based solely on his recruiting abilities is an exercise in futility.
Ironically, one of the "lightning in a bottle" teams you mentioned was a "scheme" offense ... oops
 

bke1984

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You guys that lean so heavily on recruiting rankings - you do realize that they determine these rankings in part based on who is offering the players, right? Meaning if USC, Alabama, georgia, and Ohio State (to pick a few) all want a kid who is a 3* then he will likely be elevated to a 4*.

So it’s sort of self fulfilling isn’t it? If you go to Miami to coach and recruit you will be seen as a good recruiter. The Jackson State thing is a little different. There’s a non football motivating factor involved with the HBCU scenario. Generally speaking the schools recruit themselves more so than any given coach does when you’re talking broad talent.

Where the coach comes in is evaluating players that he thinks he and his staff can develop to be successful under whatever system they’ve decided to implement. So then they should be judged by 1) do they really know what they need, and 2) can they get those guys.

So the next question - do you want to need the same guys that everyone else needs? Or do you want to need something different, that can help you achieve #2?
 

Skeptic

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Recruiting is VERY important. It alone cannot predict success. You can predict that without good recruiting, the chances at a National Title, much less an ACC championship are going to be very rare or never. I will say yet again, there is NO REASON Georgia Tech football cannot be a top 25 recruiting school, year in and year out. There is no reason we cannot get a handful of 4 star players, with the occasional 5 star player. Why we seem to have 20 or so 3-star players every year and little interest from the 300 plus 5 and 4 star players is beyond me. A big selling point is they'd be BMOC and probably a lock to start as true freshman, unlike if they go to Bama, UGA, Clemson, Ohio State and other recruiting behemoths.

So yes, recruiting is probably second most important criteria, with the first being track record of IMPROVING a program...no caretakers where a program actually takes a small step back over a couple of years after the prior genius coach left.
Well, I dunno, We won world war using recruits who could barely hold a rifle. The difference in a 3 and 5-star is one game witnesssed by a scout. And Johnson's reliance on 3's worked fine up up to the QB slot, where it all fell apart.
 

RamblinRed

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You guys that lean so heavily on recruiting rankings - you do realize that they determine these rankings in part based on who is offering the players, right? Meaning if USC, Alabama, georgia, and Ohio State (to pick a few) all want a kid who is a 3* then he will likely be elevated to a 4*.

So it’s sort of self fulfilling isn’t it? If you go to Miami to coach and recruit you will be seen as a good recruiter. The Jackson State thing is a little different. There’s a non football motivating factor involved with the HBCU scenario. Generally speaking the schools recruit themselves more so than any given coach does when you’re talking broad talent.

Where the coach comes in is evaluating players that he thinks he and his staff can develop to be successful under whatever system they’ve decided to implement. So then they should be judged by 1) do they really know what they need, and 2) can they get those guys.

So the next question - do you want to need the same guys that everyone else needs? Or do you want to need something different, that can help you achieve #2?
This is important to understand.
Recruiting sites do change their rankings of players based on who offers recruits.
It is very different than basketball recruiting where the Top couple hundred players all play against each other so it is somewhat easier to evaluate.

Recruiting is very important - but i'd argue that proper evaluation is even more important. The 5 star types are relatively easy to point out, but below that the talent levels are not so different that it is quite so easy to see.

I think where fans get lost in recruiting is the comparing of recruiting class rankings. Is the #25 class really that much better than the #35 or #40 class, i'd argue it is not.
IMO, I think there is little program talent difference between the #5 ACC recruiting class and the #10 recruiting class. I don't believe the program with the #5 recruiting class is likely to simply line up on the field and 'out talent' the #10. I think the overall levels of talent are too close for that.

At the very highest levels - the Top 10 type classes I do think there is a talent differential there were many times they can line up and simply out talent teams. But below that it is more about talent evaluation and talent development.

I'm also in the camp where I think it will be very difficult to ever recruit at a Top 25 level consistently at GT. Alot of that is simply due to the fact that in 40 years of following the program it has never consistently had Top 25 classes. It may have a Top 25 class once every 7-10 years, but it hasn't been at a rate any better than that. That leads me to believe that the ceiling at GT for 'recruiting rankings' is more based on the school than the coach. I think there are internal reasons why GT seldom recruits at a Top 25 level and i'm not convinced some of those issues are ever going to change in any significant way.

GT is always going to be located in Atlanta (which can be both a positive and a negative)
GT is never going to be as large as most P5 schools (its undergrad enrollment is in the bottom quintile - 12 smallest among P5 schools).
GT is never going to have the broad based academic choices most state P5 schools have which gives you fewer options to present to recruits that they might want to major in.
GT is always going to be more at the top end of the academic spectrum in terms of requirements to get in, which means its pool of recruits is always going to be somewhat smaller.
GT is likely to never be better than avg at fanbase/alumni financial support among P5 schools (even that would be a major change from now where GT is well below P5 avg in support).

Items 3 and 4 are the most important of those and item 3 is probably the most important of all. If the recruit does not want to major in a math and science based major there are few options for them.
Having talked to multiple assts at GT over the years in both FB and MBB I can also say that #4 plays a role as well. One asst told me once they would create a database of soph. When they would get the first official transcripts, usually at the end of their Jr year, they usually deleted 40-50% of the names in the database because they didn't have the academic classes/grades that they felt were needed for the recruit to succeed at GT.

In recruiting at GT, test scores are almost never the issue - it is their HS Classes. What have the recruits taken, what kind of grades have they gotten.
GT does not need the recruits to be future rocket scientists, they are going to get alot of academic help when they get here, but they have to have shown at least some desire to take some tough classes or they likely won't make it.

Ultimately to be successful at GT I think the program needs to recruit at the Top 25-40 level consistently (and also be really good at talent evaluation) and then be really good at talent development and pre/gameday coaching.
 

alagold

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Right now I am laughing my rear end off. Calvin Johnson would not have been 23rd or 5th as a prospect had he played punter. He was a man among boys in HS, in college, and in the pros. Even today former defenders talking about taking on Calvin Johnson, themselves all-pro, speak with the tone of reverence as though he came down from a higher league.
I saw Calvin one day while standing up close on sideline next to him at a practice.Never have a seen a more magnificent athlete at Tech..He looked like a thorough-bred Ky Derby winner.He was 6-5 ,230 and looked 210--sleek and ran like it..! At pro combine he ran a 4.37 40, high jumped 40 in, did 225lb s lifts like a LB,and broadjumped standing a crazy distance. Just unreal.
 

slugboy

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Something else to consider: while we may debate how big a factor recruiting is in team success, let’s say it’s that 36% number that was in that research paper that I cited in this thread. That doesn’t mean the Head Coach or the coaching staff is responsible for that 36%—coaches can pull up your rankings or pull them down, but how much?
The difference between one coach and another isn’t 100% of the story—there’s some base recruiting level that’s associated with the school.
At UNC, Mack Brown has brought in some highly thought of recruiters, and it seems to have brought them from a school that recruits in the 20-40 range to a school that recruits in the 10-30 range. I do have to ask “what else have they done to improve their perceived recruiting that much?”. Is it all coaches?
It’s worth looking at and trying to figure that out.
I also have to wonder about the numbers—when I looked at different positions, there were a lot more 4* and 5* DEs than DTs. The OL and the DL don’t seem to show up as much in the ratings as QB and other positions. There’s also the question of recruiting for need vs the overall ratings. An extra 3* OT might help you more than a 4* WR.
 

jacketup

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Why do people debate this question? This board is full of Paul Johnson fans. He answered the question. He went 20-7 his first two years with the 2007 recruiting class that is considered to be Tech's best ever. Johnson only had 3 final AP poll teams in his 11 years, and 2008-2009 were 2 of them. Further, Gailey's staff was good at identifying diamonds in the rough.

Johnson's recruiting was never as good as what he walked into. He had a .500 FBS record after 2009. Did he change his scheme (which so many people believe to be important)? Did he forget how to coach? No, the talent wasn't as good from 2010-2018 as it was in 2008-2009.

If you want to talk about scheme, I like Friedgen's scheme. Figure out what the other team's weakness is and attack it. Almost every college team has at least one defensive weakness. But you must have talent that is good enough to change your strategy from week to week. So recruiting matters. But yes, so does coaching. You have to identify that weakness and what the other team is doing to cover it up--which usually leaves another weakness.

But it all starts at the OL, as we have seen the last 3 1/2 years. We are an OL away from being a respectable team. Without OL talent and experience, no coaching and no scheme matters.
 

iceeater1969

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Pretty good strawmen set up there, but I'll play. Consistent top 25 is the domain of P5 programs, so your question is somewhat contradictory if I read it right, but I'll answer regardless.... Clawson comes to mind, as does Sonny Dykes, who did pretty well at SMU and seems to be translating OK to Power 5 level. Liepold also comes to mind. Luke Fickell as well. Yes, for every one of them, there are 5, 10, or even 20 who flame out. Who is the next? no idea. I think a Chadwell could be. Heck, lots of folks talk about Malzahn, but why not look at Rhett Lashlee? Lashlee is basically Malzahn circa15 years ago. Don't know if he pans out or not... and he's probably already making more at SMU than we want to pay, but there's a name.

We don't need to stay in the 40-50 recruiting range (YOU SAID THAT, NOT ME), but history is kind of hard to ignore, ain't it? I think we can improve (and we should try) but I don't believe we are going to be recruiting in the top 20, either. So now its your turn.... How high do we have to jump in recruiting to see sustained top 25 results? What's our target? Has any Tech coach achieved said target? What coach out there today can achieve said target AT TECH today?

I'll end with this, even though I know you were being snarky - we will indeed catch lightning in a bottle if we find sustained success with anyone in the next 3-4 years. Whether we are chasing top ten recruiting classes or the schematic white knight riding the shiniest unicorn of a system... We're entering into a 4+ year plan, and we can't afford for it to fail at the end. With that as my mindset, I feel like an unproven coach selling me high school commitments is a house of cards. I'll get on board with whoever we bring in, but please give me a real coach, with real credentials, who is ready to overcome our recruiting challenges.
SMU verses U of H.
They just had an aerial shoot out.
SMU qb had 9 td passes.
U of H qb 150 tds on ground and 550 in air butc3 int.
Would that be allowed by engineers into a category of building?

I would love to shock clemson w our curent defense ( get the ball) and a real passing attack.

Where is Tom Herman?
 

4shotB

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There’s also the question of recruiting for need vs the overall ratings. An extra 3* OT might help you more than a 4* WR.

This is so critical and ignored in the "class rankings". If (hypotherically) we were to sign 25 4* and 5* star "athletes" and skill position guys and no lineman and TE's, on paper we would look great and people would lose their minds over the incredible job done by the new coaching staff. However, 3 or 4 years down the road we might be incrementally better than we are now. Great OL can make decent backs look great. I think our current stable of backs would look much, much different behind Uga's OL. Heck, I think Pyron as a true FR can do the things their QB can do right now. This is one reason I don't put too much emphasis on "class rankings".
 

ibeattetris

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Why do people debate this question? This board is full of Paul Johnson fans. He answered the question. He went 20-7 his first two years with the 2007 recruiting class that is considered to be Tech's best ever. Johnson only had 3 final AP poll teams in his 11 years, and 2008-2009 were 2 of them. Further, Gailey's staff was good at identifying diamonds in the rough.

Johnson's recruiting was never as good as what he walked into. He had a .500 FBS record after 2009. Did he change his scheme (which so many people believe to be important)? Did he forget how to coach? No, the talent wasn't as good from 2010-2018 as it was in 2008-2009.
You're right. Absolutely nothing else changed from 2009-2016 that could explain GT's fall. By 2016 Duke was spending more on their football program than we were. "You get what you pay for" and the athletic association decided to pinch pennies instead of remain competitive.

1667769243899.png
 

roadkill

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This is so critical and ignored in the "class rankings". If (hypotherically) we were to sign 25 4* and 5* star "athletes" and skill position guys and no lineman and TE's, on paper we would look great and people would lose their minds over the incredible job done by the new coaching staff. However, 3 or 4 years down the road we might be incrementally better than we are now. Great OL can make decent backs look great. I think our current stable of backs would look much, much different behind Uga's OL. Heck, I think Pyron as a true FR can do the things their QB can do right now. This is one reason I don't put too much emphasis on "class rankings".
This is exactly what Mark Richt was dinged for - as a former QB and OC, he tended to focus on recruiting great skill position players. This won them a lot of games, but couldn't get them to the top. Kirby has focused on fixing this and it shows.
That said, I think class rankings still deserve a place in the overall suite of metrics for team recruiting, even more so than an individual star ranking. Team talent composite is perhaps even more useful.
 
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