How Important is Recruiting?

[Techster]

247 was started in 2010. Calvin was in the NFL by then. When Megatron signed with us, all available recruiting rankings at the time had him as a 4*

This is false. Calvin Johnson was a 5 star by Scout. Scout was bought out by 247. Read the time stamp on this:

Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Tennessee’s Josh Heupel address how they handle playoff rankings

.

247sports.com

 

[RonJohn]

This is false. Calvin Johnson was a 5 star by Scout. Scout was bought out by 247. Read the time stamp on this:

Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Tennessee’s Josh Heupel address how they handle playoff rankings

.

247sports.com

I think you linked to the wrong article.

 

[Techster]

I think you linked to the wrong article.

Check out the time stamp of the article:

https://247sports.com/college/georg...-5-Star-WR-focused-on-the-Playoffs-104065378/

I did. Click the link in my quote from another thread.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

This is false. Calvin Johnson was a 5 star by Scout. Scout was bought out by 247. Read the time stamp on this:

Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Tennessee’s Josh Heupel address how they handle playoff rankings

.

247sports.com

Scout had Tevin Washington as a 5* for almost two years until they finally corrected it. Scout was deplorable, which is why they were bought out by an upstart.

At the time, Rivals and ESPN were the only recruiting rankings that people generally went by. You brought scout into the mix only if they happened to corroborate your agenda.

 

[Techster]

Scout had Tevin Washington as a 5* for almost two years until they finally corrected it. Scout was deplorable, which is why they were bought out by an upstart.

At the time, Rivals and ESPN were the only recruiting rankings that people generally went by. You brought scout into the mix only if they happened to corroborate your agenda.

What's my agenda? The truth? I've been following recruiting since I was kid, and Scout was one of the major recruiting services...why do you think 247 bought them out?

Like I said, look at the time stamp from the link I quoted in @RonJohn reply. It's from 2003. I have no skin in this game but letting the facts speak for themselves. It's always been known that CJ was a 5 star, but NOT a CONSENSUS 5 star.

 

[JacketOff]

Here you go. This is from 2021 so it’s one year dated, but you can see the point. The 5 year rolling averages of recruiting rankings from 2017-2021. This list includes the top 22 schools with the highest average recruiting rankings

College football recruiting rankings: Teams with the best classes over a five-year average entering 2021

TEAM	5-YEAR AVG.	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Georgia	2	3	1	2	1	3
Alabama	2.4	1	7	1	2	1
Ohio State	5	2	2	14	5	2
LSU	7	7	15	5	4	4
Clemson	8	16	6	10	3	5
Oklahoma	9	8	9	6	11	11
Texas A&M	9.2	12	17	4	6	7
Florida	10.8	10	14	9	8	13
Texas	11.6	26	3	3	9	17
Michigan	11.6	5	21	8	14	10
Oregon	12	19	17	7	12	6
Notre Dame	12.4	11	10	15	17	9
Auburn	13.2	9	12	11	7	27
Penn State	13.8	15	5	13	15	21
Miami	14.8	13	8	28	13	12
Tennessee	15	17	20	12	10	16
Florida State	15.6	6	11	17	22	22
USC	18.2	4	4	20	55	8
Washington	20.4	22	13	16	16	35
Nebraska	20.8	23	22	19	20	20
North Carolina	23	27	23	32	19	14
Mississippi State	25.4	24	27	24	27	25

Let’s see how many teams recruit in the top 20 but don’t finish there:

Texas A&M: 2 ranked finishes over 5 years. 16th in 2018 and 4th in 2020. Currently 3-5

Auburn: 2 ranked finishes over 5 years. 10th in 2017 and 14th in 2019. Currently 3-5.

Miami: 2 ranked finishes. 13th in 2017 and 22nd in 2020. Currently 4-4

Tennessee: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently undefeated and #1 or #3 in the country. Man, it’s unreal what getting a competent coach can do for you. Almost like recruiting isn’t everything

Florida State: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently 5-3

USC: 2 ranked finishes. 12th in 2017, 22nd in 2020. New coach has the at 7-1 currently looking to be CFP contenders

Washington: 2 ranked finishes in 2017 and 2018

Nebraska: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently 3-5

North Carolina: 1 ranked finish. 18th in 2020

Mississippi State: 1 ranked finish. 19th in 2017

So what do these numbers and figures tell us? Well, about half of the best recruiting schools in the country are not finishing their seasons ranked in the top 25 consistently. All of the teams I mentioned finished ranked in 2 or fewer of the 5 seasons looked at.

Three schools NEVER finished a seasons ranked over a 5 year period. With 22 schools listed, that’s about 14%.

Five schools finished ranked one time or less. That’s about 23%.

Let’s break it down a little further. Only 6 of those 22 have finished every season ranked: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma. At least 2 of those 6 have been featured in every single iteration of the CFP. But, 2 of those changed coaches this year and effectively have no shot to finish ranked this year. (Hmmmm seems to be so weird that when teams change coaches they get different trends. Almost like recruiting isn’t everything). Let’s also be very clear, 5 of those 6 are in the top 6 in average recruit rankings. There is a very clear distinction in the teams who recruit in the top 5 consistently and everybody else. Once you get outside the top 15, your recruiting ranking doesn’t really matter that much anymore.

So @stigs02jrt in order for Georgia Tech to achieve the success you’re looking for based solely on recruiting, we’re going to have to recruit consistently in the top 15. We’ve never signed a top 15 class, yet you think our best path forward is to somehow start doing that on a consistent basis? Based on the figures, you have just as much of a chance to only be ranked once over a 5 year period as you are to be ranked all 5 years. And nobody outside a select group has even been ranked for 5 consecutive years anyway.

 

[RonJohn]

I did. Click the link in my quote from another thread.

What link in which other thread?

 

[Techster]

What link in which other thread?

This discussion back in 2019:

Was our staff this big before?

I'm not going to look it up since I already know it to be fact. Not trying to be snarky, but I followed his recruiting closely, and 2 services changed him from 4 to 5 after he left GT. He signed and was recruited as a 4. I don't know what you're talking about when you mention pooping on coaches...

gtswarm.com

 

[CEB]

Here you go. This is from 2021 so it’s one year dated, but you can see the point. The 5 year rolling averages of recruiting rankings from 2017-2021. This list includes the top 22 schools with the highest average recruiting rankings

College football recruiting rankings: Teams with the best classes over a five-year average entering 2021

TEAM	5-YEAR AVG.	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Georgia	2	3	1	2	1	3
Alabama	2.4	1	7	1	2	1
Ohio State	5	2	2	14	5	2
LSU	7	7	15	5	4	4
Clemson	8	16	6	10	3	5
Oklahoma	9	8	9	6	11	11
Texas A&M	9.2	12	17	4	6	7
Florida	10.8	10	14	9	8	13
Texas	11.6	26	3	3	9	17
Michigan	11.6	5	21	8	14	10
Oregon	12	19	17	7	12	6
Notre Dame	12.4	11	10	15	17	9
Auburn	13.2	9	12	11	7	27
Penn State	13.8	15	5	13	15	21
Miami	14.8	13	8	28	13	12
Tennessee	15	17	20	12	10	16
Florida State	15.6	6	11	17	22	22
USC	18.2	4	4	20	55	8
Washington	20.4	22	13	16	16	35
Nebraska	20.8	23	22	19	20	20
North Carolina	23	27	23	32	19	14
Mississippi State	25.4	24	27	24	27	25

Let’s see how many teams recruit in the top 20 but don’t finish there:

Texas A&M: 2 ranked finishes over 5 years. 16th in 2018 and 4th in 2020. Currently 3-5

Auburn: 2 ranked finishes over 5 years. 10th in 2017 and 14th in 2019. Currently 3-5.

Miami: 2 ranked finishes. 13th in 2017 and 22nd in 2020. Currently 4-4

Tennessee: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently undefeated and #1 or #3 in the country. Man, it’s unreal what getting a competent coach can do for you. Almost like recruiting isn’t everything

Florida State: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently 5-3

USC: 2 ranked finishes. 12th in 2017, 22nd in 2020. New coach has the at 7-1 currently looking to be CFP contenders

Washington: 2 ranked finishes in 2017 and 2018

Nebraska: ZERO ranked finishes. Currently 3-5

North Carolina: 1 ranked finish. 18th in 2020

Mississippi State: 1 ranked finish. 19th in 2017

So what do these numbers and figures tell us? Well, about half of the best recruiting schools in the country are not finishing their seasons ranked in the top 25 consistently. All of the teams I mentioned finished ranked in 2 or fewer of the 5 seasons looked at.

Three schools NEVER finished a seasons ranked over a 5 year period. With 22 schools listed, that’s about 14%.

Five schools finished ranked one time or less. That’s about 23%.

Let’s break it down a little further. Only 6 of those 22 have finished every season ranked: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma. At least 2 of those 6 have been featured in every single iteration of the CFP. But, 2 of those changed coaches this year and effectively have no shot to finish ranked this year. (Hmmmm seems to be so weird that when teams change coaches they get different trends. Almost like recruiting isn’t everything). Let’s also be very clear, 5 of those 6 are in the top 6 in average recruit rankings. There is a very clear distinction in the teams who recruit in the top 5 consistently and everybody else. Once you get outside the top 15, your recruiting ranking doesn’t really matter that much anymore.

So @stigs02jrt in order for Georgia Tech to achieve the success you’re looking for based solely on recruiting, we’re going to have to recruit consistently in the top 15. We’ve never signed a top 15 class, yet you think our best path forward is to somehow start doing that on a consistent basis? Based on the figures, you have just as much of a chance to only be ranked once over a 5 year period as you are to be ranked all 5 years. And nobody outside a select group has even been ranked for 5 consecutive years anyway.

Your reply was better than mine, and I’m totally biased.

 

[RonJohn]

This discussion back in 2019:

Was our staff this big before?

I'm not going to look it up since I already know it to be fact. Not trying to be snarky, but I followed his recruiting closely, and 2 services changed him from 4 to 5 after he left GT. He signed and was recruited as a 4. I don't know what you're talking about when you mention pooping on coaches...

gtswarm.com

Still not quite convinced.

That appears to be a copied article from Scout to 247. 247 didn't purchase Scout until somewhere around 2017. If the original Scout content was archived on the WayBackMachine, then I would be convinced. Unfortunately it used some Flash content that will no longer load. The only access to the Scout content is through 247, so it can't actually be verified.

 

[Techster]

Still not quite convinced.

That appears to be a copied article from Scout to 247. 247 didn't purchase Scout until somewhere around 2017. If the original Scout content was archived on the WayBackMachine, then I would be convinced. Unfortunately it used some Flash content that will no longer load. The only access to the Scout content is through 247, so it can't actually be verified.

It is available for you to read. For a price, you can pay 247 to access the old Scout content. The 5 star Scout rating and 4 Star Rivals rating disparity is actually discussed a few post down the thread in the ACC-SEC blog link. I think they did away with the site, but the summary of the 4/5 star rating disparity is quoted. They also Tweeted it out:



Here's a tweet of a screenshot of the ACTUAL Scout recruting page for Calvin:




If you're still not convinced, that's your perogative.

This a good example of the problem with discourse now. Regardless of what facts you show someone, they either try to diminish (Scout wasn't a major recruiting service!) or they come up with an excuse to disparage it. This information is easily available, but I guess if it proves someone wrong they would rather turn a blind eye to it.

 

[RonJohn]

It is available for you to read. For a price, you can pay 247 to access the old Scout content. The 5 star Scout rating and 4 Star Rivals rating disparity is actually discussed a few post down the thread in the ACC-SEC blog link. I think they did away with the site, but the summary of the 4/5 star rating disparity is quoted. They also Tweeted it out:



Here's a tweet of a screenshot of the ACTUAL Scout recruting page for Calvin:




If you're still not convinced, that's your perogative.

This a good example of the problem with discourse now. Regardless of what facts you show someone, they either try to diminish (Scout wasn't a major recruiting service!) or they come up with an excuse to disparage it. This information is easily available, but I guess if it proves someone wrong they would rather turn a blind eye to it.

But you haven't posted indisputable "facts". The claim is that Scout retroactively changed their ranking. A screen shot from 2016 doesn't indicate one way or another about that claim. A forum post from 2012 doesn't provide any evidence of what things were in 2003-2004. The best evidence was the article supposedly from 2003, but that is a repost on a different website and the formatting of the original website makes it impossible to verify. That is decent evidence, but I still don't trust how Scout and 247 have retroactively modified things.

 

[Techster]

But you haven't posted indisputable "facts". The claim is that Scout retroactively changed their ranking. A screen shot from 2016 doesn't indicate one way or another about that claim. A forum post from 2012 doesn't provide any evidence of what things were in 2003-2004. The best evidence was the article supposedly from 2003, but that is a repost on a different website and the formatting of the original website makes it impossible to verify. That is decent evidence, but I still don't trust how Scout and 247 have retroactively modified things.

Believe what you want. There's ample proof that CJ's grade wasn't retroactively changed. CJ's grade has been discussed for decades now, and you can go to other GT forums to see it rehashed.

Anyhow, this is my last post on this.

 

[yeti92]

Believe what you want. There's ample proof that CJ's grade wasn't retroactively changed. CJ's grade has been discussed for decades now, and you can go to other GT forums to see it rehashed.

Anyhow, this is my last post on this.

Until someone brings it up again in another 6 months, as is tradition.

 

[ibeattetris]

For what it's worth, for as long as I've been a fan I had always heard "GT has never recruited a 5 star, including Calvin Johnson".

I don't know the truth of things, but I know for a fact that scout did a retroactive regrade. Whether he was a 4-5 before that, I don't really know or care.

Interestingly, we've been discussing this basically since the site existed as well (and I ensure others as well).

Star Debate/Ratings thread

In addition to what I've already said, I also think there are times when a kid gets bumped up a star because of who he's committed to. Calvin Johnson would've been a concensus five star if he'd committed to u(sic)ga, and Chad Simmons' piccolo-playing *** knows it. That's another reason I don't...

gtswarm.com

IIRC Calvin was in fact a 5 Star and after committing to us fell to a 4 star.

I think at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter. Recruiting rankings in the early 2000's were pretty terrible.

 

[ibeattetris]

For what it's worth, for as long as I've been a fan I had always heard "GT has never recruited a 5 star, including Calvin Johnson".

I don't know the truth of things, but I know for a fact that scout did a retroactive regrade. Whether he was a 4-5 before that, I don't really know or care.

Interestingly, we've been discussing this basically since the site existed as well (and I ensure others as well).

Star Debate/Ratings thread

In addition to what I've already said, I also think there are times when a kid gets bumped up a star because of who he's committed to. Calvin Johnson would've been a concensus five star if he'd committed to u(sic)ga, and Chad Simmons' piccolo-playing *** knows it. That's another reason I don't...

gtswarm.com

I think at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter. Recruiting rankings in the early 2000's were pretty terrible.

Going back and looking at old posts on stingtalk in the 2003/2004 range, many people were saying Calvin was a 5 star. It is what it is.

 

[Skeptic]

For what it's worth, for as long as I've been a fan I had always heard "GT has never recruited a 5 star, including Calvin Johnson".

I don't know the truth of things, but I know for a fact that scout did a retroactive regrade. Whether he was a 4-5 before that, I don't really know or care.

Interestingly, we've been discussing this basically since the site existed as well (and I ensure others as well).

Star Debate/Ratings thread

In addition to what I've already said, I also think there are times when a kid gets bumped up a star because of who he's committed to. Calvin Johnson would've been a concensus five star if he'd committed to u(sic)ga, and Chad Simmons' piccolo-playing *** knows it. That's another reason I don't...

gtswarm.com

I think at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter. Recruiting rankings in the early 2000's were pretty terrible.

If Johnson was not a five star, what does that tell us about recruiting services? So Johnson turns out to be right about that. too.

 

[bobongo]

Doesn't prove anything, but I found this stroll down memory lane written in 2017 about Tech's highest ranked recruits since 2000:

Georgia Tech Football: A Look Back at the Highest Rated Georgia Tech Recruits Since 2000 | FOX Sports

With the Georgia Tech coaching staff putting it's finishing touches on the 2017 recruiting class with just two weeks till national signing day, there's no better way to look at the Yellow Jackets top ten recruits since 2000.National Signing Day is just two weeks away which means soon 14 ...

www.foxsports.com

"Johnson, was a five-star recruit coming out of high school and considered the 23rd best prospect in the 2004 recruiting class. Johnson was also ranked as the fifth best wide receiver prospect and the third best in the state of Georgia."

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

What's my agenda? The truth? I've been following recruiting since I was kid, and Scout was one of the major recruiting services...why do you think 247 bought them out?

Like I said, look at the time stamp from the link I quoted in @RonJohn reply. It's from 2003. I have no skin in this game but letting the facts speak for themselves. It's always been known that CJ was a 5 star, but NOT a CONSENSUS 5 star.

My apologies. The agenda part wasn't aimed at you. It was more a reflection on how abysmal the Scout ranking systems were back then. People would throw out Scout rankings to prove a recruit was better than he was. It was a poor choice of words on my part, and for that I apologize.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Like I said, look at the time stamp from the link I quoted in @RonJohn reply. It's from 2003. I have no skin in this game but letting the facts speak for themselves. It's always been known that CJ was a 5 star, but NOT a CONSENSUS 5 star.

I don't know what you mean by it's always been known when it seems all but one questionable source says 4*

By the numbers: The remarkable career of Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson announced his retirement Tuesday after nine seasons.

www.mlive.com