Here's a COVID thread for you

[MWBATL]

Because if others don't get vaccinated then nothing really slows down, people continue to die, you would still be required to wear a mask everywhere you go, your kids would likely keep doing virtual learning, Bobby Dodd stadium would remain at 25% capacity, etc. There are societal impacts from large numbers of people getting vaccines that you don't get from your own personal shot. You did your part, but if others don't do their part then there is a cost to you and everyone around you.

Only if idiots make the rules.

The proper response is that if you don't get vaccinated, only those who choose not to get vaccinated will die. And since it was their choice to take that risk....c'est la vie!

 

[MWBATL]

Walensksy strikes again.

yesterday when asked about the 223 vaccinated covid deaths she replied
" there's a difference between dying from covid and dying with covid"

Now that there is funny, I don't care who you are.....

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Im not stressing myself, I am happy with the momentum we have right now. I am just agreeing with the notion of the comic that some people are absolutely being dragged along in this while they do nothing to help. We are going to beat it without them. That I'm certain of. We still have a good bit of work to do but we will get there.

Well they may have already had it. If they haven't and aren't getting vaccinated, they still might get it. Its (natural immunity) a big critical piece that's being completely ignored by the media, the CDC and others. Somewhere around 80-100 million people have natural immunity and they're all acting like those people don't exist. What are we at, 35% of Americans being fully vaccinated? There's no way we'd be getting this herd immunity like effect without all the natural immunity. Ignoring that fact is really harming the message. Those people are not doing nothing to help (pardon the double negative). We're not beating it without them. If they've had covid, they're helping. If they haven't, but they're staying healthy and not getting it, that's helpful too.

 

[WreckinGT]

Well they may have already had it. If they haven't and aren't getting vaccinated, they still might get it. Its (natural immunity) a big critical piece that's being completely ignored by the media, the CDC and others. Somewhere around 80-100 million people have natural immunity and they're all acting like those people don't exist. What are we at, 35% of Americans being fully vaccinated? There's no way we'd be getting this herd immunity like effect without all the natural immunity. Ignoring that fact is really harming the message. Those people are not doing nothing to help (pardon the double negative). We're not beating it without them. If they've had covid, they're helping. If they haven't, but they're staying healthy and not getting it, that's helpful too.

How are we at 80-100 million people having natural immunity when only 33 million people have gotten the virus? What am I missing?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

How are we at 80-100 million people having natural immunity when only 33 million people have gotten the virus? What am I missing?

33 million people have tested positive. Two-thirds of cases are asymptomatic, so tons of people got it and never tested positive. Turns out my 80-100 million number is way outdated. The number of people who have had covid /= those who tested positive.

April 2021: CDC estimates 115 million Americans have had covid:

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

February 6th, 2021: Columbia University: Over 100 million people have had covid:

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think

Not everyone gets tested. A new model estimates how many infections are missed because of this and how many people are actively shedding the virus. The results lend urgency to the vaccine race.

www.npr.org

February 4th, 2021: 71 million have had it:

New machine-learning algorithm estimates number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

World health experts have long suspected that the incidence of COVID-19 has been higher than reported. Now, a machine-learning algorithm developed at UT Southwestern estimates that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began is nearly three times that of confirmed cases.

www.news-medical.net

A study last September estimated 60 million:

As Many As 60 Million Americans May Have Had A Coronavirus Infection, But That’s A Long Way From Herd Immunity

A lot of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Extrapolating from a new study suggests that the number may be as high as 60 million. Unfortunately, herd immunity is still a long way off.

www.forbes.com

This all makes sense though. If the CDC is correct in that 115 million Americans have had covid, then you'd expect us to be entering herd immunity right now at our level of vaccinations, and it sure looks that way.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

33 million people have tested positive. Two-thirds of cases are asymptomatic, so tons of people got it and never tested positive. Turns out my 80-100 million number is way outdated. The number of people who have had covid /= those who tested positive.

April 2021: CDC estimates 115 million Americans have had covid:

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

February 6th, 2021: Columbia University: Over 100 million people have had covid:

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think

Not everyone gets tested. A new model estimates how many infections are missed because of this and how many people are actively shedding the virus. The results lend urgency to the vaccine race.

www.npr.org

February 4th, 2021: 71 million have had it:

New machine-learning algorithm estimates number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

World health experts have long suspected that the incidence of COVID-19 has been higher than reported. Now, a machine-learning algorithm developed at UT Southwestern estimates that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began is nearly three times that of confirmed cases.

www.news-medical.net

A study last September estimated 60 million:

As Many As 60 Million Americans May Have Had A Coronavirus Infection, But That’s A Long Way From Herd Immunity

A lot of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Extrapolating from a new study suggests that the number may be as high as 60 million. Unfortunately, herd immunity is still a long way off.

www.forbes.com

This all makes sense though. If the CDC is correct in that 115 million Americans have had covid, then you'd expect us to be entering herd immunity right now at our level of vaccinations, and it sure looks that way.

If this is accurate (No reason not to doubt it other than it came from the CDC) then this is truly worth celebrating

 

[WreckinGT]

33 million people have tested positive. Two-thirds of cases are asymptomatic, so tons of people got it and never tested positive. Turns out my 80-100 million number is way outdated. The number of people who have had covid /= those who tested positive.

April 2021: CDC estimates 115 million Americans have had covid:

Cases, Data, and Surveillance

Cases, data, and surveillance to track and analyze COVID-19.

www.cdc.gov

February 6th, 2021: Columbia University: Over 100 million people have had covid:

Why The Pandemic Is 10 Times Worse Than You Think

Not everyone gets tested. A new model estimates how many infections are missed because of this and how many people are actively shedding the virus. The results lend urgency to the vaccine race.

www.npr.org

February 4th, 2021: 71 million have had it:

New machine-learning algorithm estimates number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.

World health experts have long suspected that the incidence of COVID-19 has been higher than reported. Now, a machine-learning algorithm developed at UT Southwestern estimates that the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. since the pandemic began is nearly three times that of confirmed cases.

www.news-medical.net

A study last September estimated 60 million:

As Many As 60 Million Americans May Have Had A Coronavirus Infection, But That’s A Long Way From Herd Immunity

A lot of Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Extrapolating from a new study suggests that the number may be as high as 60 million. Unfortunately, herd immunity is still a long way off.

www.forbes.com

This all makes sense though. If the CDC is correct in that 115 million Americans have had covid, then you'd expect us to be entering herd immunity right now at our level of vaccinations, and it sure looks that way.

I can somewhat get behind the estimates, but you aren't accounting for any overlap in those who had COVID and got vaccinated, nor are you accounting for those who are likely well past the expiration date on their antibodies.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

I can somewhat get behind the estimates, but you aren't accounting for any overlap in those who had COVID and got vaccinated, nor are you accounting for those who are likely well past the expiration date on their antibodies.

What is the expiration date of the antibodies?

 

[WreckinGT]

What is the expiration date of the antibodies?

That has a lot of different answers depending on the study. You will get answers ranging from 3 months to 8 months to more depending on the case. Milder cases have shown sharp decreases in antibodies in the first three months in studies. Assuming that everyone who has gotten covid (including estimated people who never tested positive) in the last 15 months is still immune today seems like it is probably overshooting things by a good margin.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

That has a lot of different answers depending on the study. You will get answers ranging from 3 months to 8 months to more depending on the case. Milder cases have shown sharp decreases in antibodies in the first three months in studies. Assuming that everyone who has gotten covid (including estimated people who never tested positive) in the last 15 months is still immune today seems like it is probably overshooting things by a good margin.

I would bet that at least 90% of covid cases are still immune.

 

[WreckinGT]

I would bet that at least 90% of covid cases are still immune.

Based on what exactly?

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Based on what exactly?

Based on the limited number of reinfections.

 

[WreckinGT]

Based on the limited number of reinfections.

By that same logic I had natural antibodies the whole time.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I can somewhat get behind the estimates, but you aren't accounting for any overlap in those who had COVID and got vaccinated, nor are you accounting for those who are likely well past the expiration date on their antibodies.

Yes I was, you just assumed I wasn’t. About 50% have had 1 shot. About 35% according to the CDC have had it. I’ve never asserted that 85% of Americans have immunity. I’ve always gone off of what health experts like MUSC have offered. They say it’s 66% in South Carolina.

There is no known expiration date on the antibodies, so I’m not sure where you’re getting that from. probably from inside a hiney. Remember we are also long past when many people have had their shots - clinical trials started long ago. Nobody In Clinical trials is reporting illness.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That has a lot of different answers depending on the study. You will get answers ranging from 3 months to 8 months to more depending on the case. Milder cases have shown sharp decreases in antibodies in the first three months in studies. Assuming that everyone who has gotten covid (including estimated people who never tested positive) in the last 15 months is still immune today seems like it is probably overshooting things by a good margin.

Those are all guesses. In reality in the wild, the number of reinfections is infinitesimally small.

 

[WreckinGT]

Yes I was, you just assumed I wasn’t. About 50% have had 1 shot. About 35% according to the CDC have had it. I’ve never asserted that 85% of Americans have immunity. I’ve always gone off of what health experts like MUSC have offered. They say it’s 66% in South Carolina.

There is no known expiration date on the antibodies, so I’m not sure where you’re getting that from. probably from inside a hiney. Remember we are also long past when many people have had their shots - clinical trials started long ago. Nobody In Clinical trials is reporting illness.

Im not claiming that there is a particular expiration date for everyone just that many of these people are likely to not have antibodies anymore 15 months after being infected. If we believe the 115 million estimate then you have to believe that the majority of the 82 million that never tested positive likely had mild cases. According to a study at UCLA, antibodies fall dramatically in the first three months for those with mild cases (https://www.uclahealth.org/u-magazi...n-first-3-months-after-mild-cases-of-covid-19). Most studies among those even with non mild cases show antibodies fading around the 8 month mark. There is nothing that I have seen to suggest that recovering from mild cases protects you for years, and I haven't seen any experts claim that they do.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Im not claiming that there is a particular expiration date for everyone just that many of these people are likely to not have antibodies anymore 15 months after being infected. If we believe the 115 million estimate then you have to believe that the majority of the 82 million that never tested positive likely had mild cases. According to a study at UCLA, antibodies fall dramatically in the first three months for those with mild cases (https://www.uclahealth.org/u-magazi...n-first-3-months-after-mild-cases-of-covid-19). Most studies among those even with non mild cases show antibodies fading around the 8 month mark. There is nothing that I have seen to suggest that recovering from mild cases protects you for years, and I haven't seen any experts claim that they do.

Years? Do you have evidence that any of the vaccines last for years? Not sure why you even brought that straw man up.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Im not claiming that there is a particular expiration date for everyone just that many of these people are likely to not have antibodies anymore 15 months after being infected. If we believe the 115 million estimate then you have to believe that the majority of the 82 million that never tested positive likely had mild cases. According to a study at UCLA, antibodies fall dramatically in the first three months for those with mild cases (https://www.uclahealth.org/u-magazi...n-first-3-months-after-mild-cases-of-covid-19). Most studies among those even with non mild cases show antibodies fading around the 8 month mark. There is nothing that I have seen to suggest that recovering from mild cases protects you for years, and I haven't seen any experts claim that they do.

I know what people think, I’ve read those same guesses about antibodies. But the reality is that almost nobody has reported getting Covid twice. Likewise, we’re not too far away from a year since clinical trials started, and none of them are reporting getting Covid.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I know what people think, I’ve read those same guesses about antibodies. But the reality is that almost nobody has reported getting Covid twice. Likewise, we’re not too far away from a year since clinical trials started, and none of them are reporting getting Covid.

With the way testing was done, many Covid cases were not actually Covid. At some point some of those false positives are going to come home to roost. On the other hand, it may have overstated the prevalence of Covid & there’s really not much out there to catch. Would be good to have some real reliable science & statistics out there instead of the headline grabbing BS we’ve been fed for more than a year.

 

[JacketRacket]