Our destination really depends so much on what happens with the CFP. If two Big 10 teams get in we're probably going to get screwed and go to the Military or Independence. If only one Big 10 team gets in, then I can't see a scenario where a Big 10 team is not in the Orange Bowl.
My guess is this:
CFP: Bama, Clemson, OSU, Washington
Rose: Penn State/Wisconsin
Orange: FSU vs. Michigan (this opens up the Citrus Bowl for the ACC)
Citrus: Louisville
RA: VT
That leaves the Gator, Pinstripe, Sun, and Belk to divvy up Tech, UNC, Miami, and Pitt. Sun probably won't take us, and I think Belk takes UNC guaranteed...so really it'd be Pinstripe or Gator. My guess is:
Gator: Tech
Pinstripe: Pitt
Sun: Miami
Belk: UNC
What really screws this whole thing up is if Washington loses. In that scenario it's pretty much guaranteed that two Big 10 teams go to the CFP and a third goes to the Rose Bowl. At this point, I can't see a 3-loss Penn State or 3-loss Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl, so the ACC loses the Citrus. That would look like this:
Citrus: Big 10
RA: Louisville
Gator/Pinstripe/Sun/Belk: VT/Pitt/Miami/UNC
Tech falls to tier 2...probably first selection, so Military Bowl in Anapolis
So basically we are Husky fans this weekend boys and girls.
Clemson losing would also screw us, but I just don't see that happening.
Nightmare case...Clemson AND Washington lose:
CFP: Bama, OSU, Big10, Colorado
Rose: Big10
Orange: Clemson
Citrus: Big10
RA: FSU
Gator/Pinstripe/Sun/Belk: Louisbille/VT/UNC/Pitt/Miami...one of these teams falls to tier 2
The tier 2 bowls have a selection order, not an equal status, so we're probably the second team selected and end up in the Independence Bowl...this would suck