Northeast Stinger
Helluva Engineer
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This is probably “rat poison”, and certainly doesn’t take into consideration that we’re
If 2023 Georgia Tech played 2023 Georgia State, we’d expect GT to win about 8 times out of 10 (this projection is ~90% and a 16 point spread):
- banged up and
- Ga State has film on us and
- We’re a different defense than last year, and Ga State is a different team than last year
There’s also the FEI game projection, which has roughly an 11 point spread in our favor. It’s not a blowout, empty the benches forecast.
BCF Toys - 2024 Game Projections
www.bcftoys.com
ESPN’s preview is similar—about 80%. They report the point spread as 21 points.
There’s a simple stats-based preview at http://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401634302.
Last year, Georgia State ran a lot, and it was the strength of their game, but not by a ton. We couldn’t defend the run. Last year, you’d expect them to run and run often. This year, who knows?
Georgia State Offense vs Georgia Tech Defense #53 0.07 EPA/Pass -0.04 #42 #69 0.01 EPA/Rush 0.11 #111 #69 45.8% Available Yards % 50.2% #105 #59 Own 28 Starting Field Position Own 28 #57 #90 -0.04 Early Downs EPA/Play 0.02 #85 #22 48.5% 3rd/4th Down Success 47.1% #103 #40 6.80 Avg 3rd Down Distance 7.26 #55
Last year, Georgia State had a terrible pass defense. We were better on the ground, but we could pass it.
I think we’ll be more balanced this weekend compared to last, but honestly I’m not sure. You would think that FSU has a better secondary than Georgia State, and a better overall defense.
Ga State Defense vs Ga Tech Offense #117 0.15 EPA/Pass 0.01 #68 #40 -0.04 EPA/Rush 0.13 #14 #104 50.2% Available Yards % 52.4% #28 #64 Own 28 Starting FP Own 30 #26 #58 -0.02 Early Downs EPA/Play 0.05 #45 #126 50.8% 3rd Down Success 42.4% T-#69 #27 7.61 Avg 3rd Down Distance 6.93 #52
For those of you thinking “trap game”, Syracuse is our next game after Georgia State.
Syracuse. Otherwise known as that “out of town business trip.”
Yeah, we’re all nervous as kittens. Maybe this year IS different.