I think a lot of these bowl projections (at least once they get past the top dozen or so game) is someone just plugging in the order of conference pick. In reality, the bowls look at various intangibles like proximity, fan base, etc. Every year there is some speculation that "X bowl could be a rematch of Y and Z" and it never comes to fruition.
IMO, the possibility of Annapolis-Paul Johnson storyline is strong. They have the first pick among tier 2 bowls, eliminating the options like Detroit and Shreveport.