Coronavirus Thread

[Techster]

 

[RamblinRed]

@bwelbo has been recommending the same common sense Bill Curry tweeted today for quite a long time.

As you said, these have been the same basic recommendations for months. That we as a country have largely ignored them is why we are where we are.
We have a few weeks to get this under control or it will impact the rest of our summer and our fall and I really would like to avoid that. My son has already lost a trip to the Robotics World Championships that was cancelled and had a birthday in quarantine, so it has definitely not been the planned year so far for him.

Texas actually rolling back into stronger restrictions is a real sign that this has gotten worse (closed bars - they can still do take-out and delivery, reduced capacity in restaurants from 75% to 50%, closed tubing and rafting companies, any outdoor event over 100 people has to have local approval). Houston went into surge capacity last night. AZ is at 12% hospital beds remaining statewide this morning, and their per capita case rate is the highest seen so far outside of NY/NJ. FL reported almost 9,000 cases today (Orange County is down to less than 17% of ICU beds available and less than 12% of all beds - NBA has to be looking at that and getting frustrated and concerned). Miami's mayor said this morning that if it doesn't improve there he will implement restrictions.

Disney has postponed opening Disneyland and California Adventure and some are asking it to do the same with WDW in FL.
I just wish we could kick the virus in its balls and knock it down to its knees.

 

[Techster]

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So now police officers are empowered to throw people in jail for not wearing masks. This will end well during a Defund The Police movement.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/03/which-deamany-black-men-fear-wearing-mask-more-than-coronavirus/

 

[RamblinRed]

Florida suspends on-premise alcohol consumption at all bars. Basically like TX they can do take-out and delivery but no in person drinking



Also, Mayor of Tuscon, AZ says they have 10 ICU beds left in the city.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

Florida suspends on-premise alcohol consumption at all bars. Basically like TX they can do take-out and delivery but no in person drinking



Also, Mayor of Tuscon, AZ says they have 10 ICU beds left in the city.

I'll be in Miami and Key West in 7 weeks. Hope they've opened back up by then

 

[Techster]

I'll be in Miami and Key West in 7 weeks. Hope they've opened back up by then

I have a Key West fishing trip with buddies that was scheduled in May, rescheduled for September. Right now I'm still planning to go (instead of flying, I'll be driving), but I"m not too optimistic given the events in FL right now.

 

[Techster]

Just my opinion, I think if everyone will wear a facemask in public and around others, and social distance for the next 4-6 weeks, we would see a precipitous dip in numbers. We don't need to shut down the economy. Just as quickly as this thing ramped up after opening, it can just as quickly go away. We can all have our sports, with possibly even majority attendance. The question is if people are willing to do what we need to.

 

[Gtbowhunter90]

I have a Key West fishing trip with buddies that was scheduled in May, rescheduled for September. Right now I'm still planning to go (instead of flying, I'll be driving), but I"m not too optimistic given the events in FL right now.

I hope you get to take your trip. As of now we are flying but that might change... we have already cancelled a Jamaica trip. Hopefully we can take this trip.

 

[dtm1997]

On a personal note, Dragon Con finally allowed people to roll their badges to 2021 this week and I wasted no time doing so.

 

[Techster]

On a personal note, Dragon Con finally allowed people to roll their badges to 2021 this week and I wasted no time doing so.

What are you dressing up as?

 

[dtm1997]

What are you dressing up as?

I don't dress up, but I do have a large quantity of comic book T-shirts.

Additionally, I've recently ordered masks that have the old Marriott Marquis carpet pattern on them. If you know, you know.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Today the CDC removed people 65 and older as a high risk group for COVID-19.

You just can't make this **** up.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0625-update-expands-covid-19.html

What they are saying now is that certain pre-existing conditions are more important than age, and just generically as you get older your risk goes up.

If you look at deaths here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku , 80% of deaths are those age 65 and older. 93% of deaths are those age 55 and older.

I mean, come on, LOL.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Today the CDC removed people 65 and older as a high risk group for COVID-19.

You just can't make this **** up.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0625-update-expands-covid-19.html

What they are saying now is that certain pre-existing conditions are more important than age, and just generically as you get older your risk goes up.

If you look at deaths here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku , 80% of deaths are those age 65 and older. 93% of deaths are those age 55 and older.

I mean, come on, LOL.

The CDC just can’t help themselves & stop playing politics. Really sad.

 

[Jim Prather]

Today the CDC removed people 65 and older as a high risk group for COVID-19.

You just can't make this **** up.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0625-update-expands-covid-19.html

What they are saying now is that certain pre-existing conditions are more important than age, and just generically as you get older your risk goes up.

If you look at deaths here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku , 80% of deaths are those age 65 and older. 93% of deaths are those age 55 and older.

I mean, come on, LOL.

I understand completely how this seems absurd on its face, but from a mathematical perspective it's not unreasonable. In statistics, one of the things you are always on the lookout for are correlated variables. These are always tricky because your dependent variable (In this case Covid risk) may only depend on one of the two correlated variables, but due to the very nature of correlated variables, it looks like it depends on both.
It is possible that they finally got the math worked out to account for the correlation and found that the statistically significant variable is the underlying condition and not age itself.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I understand completely how this seems absurd on its face, but from a mathematical perspective it's not unreasonable. In statistics, one of the things you are always on the lookout for are correlated variables. These are always tricky because your dependent variable (In this case Covid risk) may only depend on one of the two correlated variables, but due to the very nature of correlated variables, it looks like it depends on both.
It is possible that they finally got the math worked out to account for the correlation and found that the statistically significant variable is the underlying condition and not age itself.

Yea exactly - when you turn 55 or 65 or whatever, there is nothing magical that suddenly makes you extremely vulnerable. But the death rates for the elderly are undeniable. 80% of our deaths are found in 15% of the population (> 65). The mortality rates of those people once they get the disease are sky high, compared to about 0 for younger people.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

It just seems hilariously bizarre to look at this data and these charts and say age is not a risk factor. I guarantee you if you compare a 30 year old obese person to a 70 year old obese person both with COVID-19 that the hospitalization and mortality rates are wildly different.

 

[takethepoints]

Just my opinion, I think if everyone will wear a facemask in public and around others, and social distance for the next 4-6 weeks, we would see a precipitous dip in numbers. We don't need to shut down the economy. Just as quickly as this thing ramped up after opening, it can just as quickly go away. We can all have our sports, with possibly even majority attendance. The question is if people are willing to do what we need to.

See:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/06/locking-down-too-late-but-ending.html

This is Simon Wren-Lewis on why they are having trouble with keeping demand up in the UK, but the logic applies everywhere. The countries that locked down until they had things under control and had really lowered R are now sporting (approximately) normal economies. Those who didn't - like some countries we know - continue to have problems. Unless people feel safe when they are out and about, they won't consume. That drives up savings and depresses already spotty economic activity. The big takeaway = the hit is so tremendous that no amount of fiscal stimulus that is feasible will do more then help. The way to get things back to normal is to suppress the virus. Now.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

See:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/06/locking-down-too-late-but-ending.html

This is Simon Wren-Lewis on why they are having trouble with keeping demand up in the UK, but the logic applies everywhere. The countries that locked down until they had things under control and had really lowered R are now sporting (approximately) normal economies. Those who didn't - like some countries we know - continue to have problems. Unless people feel safe when they are out and about, they won't consume. That drives up savings and depresses already spotty economic activity. The big takeaway = the hit is so tremendous that no amount of fiscal stimulus that is feasible will do more then help. The way to get things back to normal is to suppress the virus. Now.

Yep, and the answer is not shutting down - it’s people being responsible by wearing masks, using good hygiene, and keeping your distance. Unlike many other countries, we are too stupid to do that. My wife and I went out to dinner (not takeout) for our anniversary for the first time in months. None of the staff wore masks and there wasn’t much separation. We aren’t going back out again to eat in (to your point). People aren’t out because they don’t feel safe, and they don’t feel safe because the disease is still active and people aren’t behaving. I honestly don’t know what it’s going to take for people to figure that out.

 

[RonJohn]

Yea exactly - when you turn 55 or 65 or whatever, there is nothing magical that suddenly makes you extremely vulnerable. But the death rates for the elderly are undeniable. 80% of our deaths are found in 15% of the population (> 65). The mortality rates of those people once they get the disease are sky high, compared to about 0 for younger people.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

It just seems hilariously bizarre to look at this data and these charts and say age is not a risk factor. I guarantee you if you compare a 30 year old obese person to a 70 year old obese person both with COVID-19 that the hospitalization and mortality rates are wildly different.

As people get older, they usually have more underlying conditions I believe, I haven't looked it up. Just from recollection, and maybe not accurate: As people get older they have more: Heart and blood circulatory conditions, more diabetes, more cancer, etc.

The new statements from the CDC might be to stress that it isn't age, it is the other underlying conditions that are more prevalent at older ages. I wouldn't think that a 62 year old who is healthy and runs marathons is probably at less risk than a 45 year old who doesn't eat well and works at a desk every day.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

As people get older, they usually have more underlying conditions I believe, I haven't looked it up. Just from recollection, and maybe not accurate: As people get older they have more: Heart and blood circulatory conditions, more diabetes, more cancer, etc.

The new statements from the CDC might be to stress that it isn't age, it is the other underlying conditions that are more prevalent at older ages. I wouldn't think that a 62 year old who is healthy and runs marathons is probably at less risk than a 45 year old who doesn't eat well and works at a desk every day.

Yep, I guarantee you that you compare a 30 year old and a 70 year old with the same health issue (Let’s say 40 pounds overweight as an example) and the 70 year old is at a much more significant risk of adverse health effects from COVID-19.