Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

On the effect of protests nationwide on COVID-19, see:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Usual caveats: this hasn't been peer reviewed and it's an early cut. Still, the cell phone data is indicative of an increase in social distancing (i.e. most people stayed home and away from protest locations) during the protests and, while the protests were quite large, the attendees were a very small proportion of the total population of the cities involved. Add in that a very substantial proportion of the protesters wore masks and that the demonstrations were all outside and usually moving and the situation becomes less threatening for the overall community picture of the virus. Not, mind, necessarily for the demonstrators themselves, though there's little evidence of spread there either. Yet.

This does not cover indoor events - there weren't any. So, the rallies or big indoor or outdoor sporting events/conventions are still a no-no. Oth, if attendance remains low at those there shouldn't be great fear of increased spread. Unless there are a lot of people from all over attending, of course.

Oh, and I wouldn't recommend going to see Notre Dame and Tech at MB under any circumstances, even if they turned off the AC and opened the roof. But if there is one game that will almost certainly be cancelled, that's the one.

LOL, so the nations brightest minds and most intelligent health experts were wrong again. LOL.

 

[takethepoints]

LOL, so the nations brightest minds and most intelligent health experts were wrong again. LOL.

No, they weren't. Some talking heads on tv thought the protests might lead to spikes in infections, but I never heard a single one say that they would. (Well, except for some folks around here.) The people who are experts on the virus expressed fears stemming from the way some demonstrations - like the one in the Michigan legislature - played out. But that's different from saying that there certainly would be dire consequences from mass outdoor protests.

What I don't understand about posts like this one is that the people who make predictions almost always hem them in by voicing uncertainty about what they are saying. This is standard science, especially when you are dealing with a brand new phenomena you know little about talking place in new situations where you don't have prior experience. What they do instead is say what they think might happen and give the cautions they can think of by extrapolating from present experience. That's a lot better then not saying anything; it isn't as if we haven't been learning. And now we have the data - at least a preliminary cut - and we know better what to advise people to do. It's that simple.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

As far as I know this is the most comprehensive data set for Florida. It gets down to the hospital level of available ICU beds. The woman that developed this site was fired by the State of Florida because she refused to ignore data as directed by her supervisors. I attach a link to the website, and a second link to an article that describes her motivation. You can form your own opinion about the quality of her numbers - I am not gonna force them down your throat. But they do paint a different picture than the official State of Florida website.

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/n...-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/

https://floridacovidaction.com/

I just read through her assumptions behind her data. She's doing things many on here have been critical of before.
1) She includes everyone who has tested positive with a test run in Florida, regardless of if they lived there or not. Note this is highly problematic, as an estimated 8-10,000,000 people who are residents of other states at any given time are estimated to be in Florida (this is the combination of snowbird type residents who visit for a couple months and tourists). In my state we also don't count positive states of people who live somewhere else, but notify those states. So she's in effect double counting positive results when she does this. Note due to Florida's nature of being a highly transient state, doing this will inflate her numbers for Florida by as much as 50%. So again, if a resident of Ohio tests positive in Florida while on vacation...1 week later they're back at home and get the result, they hit the hospital in Ohio, fight the disease for a month and then die - she counts that as a positive Florida test, a Florida hospitalization, and a Florida death.
2) She includes people who tested positive for antibodies to be positive cases.
3) It doesn't matter how many times someone tests negative or how many time they test positive (like they want a re-test for confirmation) - she only counts it as 1 test.

From what I can see, this is all interesting information and she's done a lot of good work. But its also data fraud. It is all good and real data, but its not Florida-specific data.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

talking heads on tv thought the protests might lead to spikes in infections

For as long as the pandemic has been around, we've all been advised to avoid large groups, because it could lead to spikes in infections. Absolutely correct - and yes, they've been proven wrong again. And we have enough data now from these gatherings of both people who wore masks and those who didn't (or many people there didn't) to wonder what the hell is going on with our health experts.

 

[Techster]

Buddy, I read the article. (Why do you always act like this?)

Again, there is no evidence I’ve seen anywhere that the numbers could be wildly incorrect. If there are other articles I’m missing or forgetting about, please let me know. But we’re comparing states whose death rates are 10x higher. That’s 1000%. A 10% error or even 20% or 30% isn’t material to the comparison. If the numbers are off by 50%, those states are still 800% higher.

A 10% error or even 20% or 30% isn’t material to the comparison.

You have lost the plot.

We both know how this discussion will end...neither of us is going to agree with each other.

I'm not wasting my time anymore.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

A 10% error or even 20% or 30% isn’t material to the comparison.

You have lost the plot.

We both know how this discussion will end...neither of us is going to agree with each other.

I'm not wasting my time anymore.

Scratching my head at why you always act like this.

Here are the 2 points I'm disputing, plus a third thought:
1) The people you guys are referencing as sources (that Florida is lying about their numbers) are saying the data they have is off by 10%. When states you're comparing Florida to are 1000% higher, how is 10% or anything even remotely similar to that material?
2) I read that lady's website who was fired. Her largest overarching beef is that Florida is not counting out of state visitors in their numbers. Florida is a unique state whose population at any given point in time is about a third who are residents of other states either on vacation or staying for a couple months for an extended vacation (like 'snowbirds'). This is not lying about numbers or being fraudulent. Other states count data the same way. If they don't, they'll be double counting them.
3) Above I listed a number of things she's doing with her numbers that seem questionable to me.

I boil all that down and I just don't see the reason for the outrage that Florida's numbers are fake or materially wrong any more than any other states are. Florida says there are 3,280 deaths. She counts non-residents too who were originally tested in Florida and estimates as of right now 3,500. That's about a 10% 'error' even if you take her approach to be your preferred method.

 

[takethepoints]

For as long as the pandemic has been around, we've all been advised to avoid large groups, because it could lead to spikes in infections. Absolutely correct - and yes, they've been proven wrong again. And we have enough data now from these gatherings of both people who wore masks and those who didn't (or many people there didn't) to wonder what the hell is going on with our health experts.

You missed the point of the article. It's gatherings outside and with people moving and wearing masks, a collection of new situations. Remember when the first warnings were given? When it was cold outside and people were gathering inside.

I think your problem is that you want infallible advice about new problems. I think you need to forget that and pay attention to people whose job is to find out about those problems.

 

[RamblinRed]

I 100% agree with the decision of the PGA Commisioner, I think it makes perfect sense - but keep in mind it is much easier to make his decision than most sports will have the ability to do.
The PGA is a very individual sport where the athletes don't play every week anyways. They play in large open spaces and they currently are not allowing fans. There is really no reason to shut things down. It is probably one of the easiest sports to play during this time. Decisions are going to be much more difficult for team sports.

i also liked RonJon's comment about 'freedom'. That's an analogy that has been used many times with swinging the fist. You do not have a right to do something that is potentially harmful to someone else, only harmful to yourself.
The mask debate is so unfortunate because it didn't have to be this way. France, which is probably the most Liberty loving country outside the US, has made mask wearing into a point of pride and patriotism. Their governmental leaders started wearing them early on (ones with the National Tri-Color on them) and it became something that most French ended up choosing to do because they saw their leaders doing it and saw it as part of National pride in fighting the virus.

The idea of people who are at risk just isolating and staying home is just such a false choice. If you take all Americans who are over 60 and all Americans under 60 with underlying conditions that comes to around 110M American adults. So first that is your rough number you have to isolate. But then, technically you need to isolate anyone who lives with one of those 110M Americans. There is just no reasonable way to do it.

As a country we largely chose to go a very easy route in terms of combatting the virus. Our stay at home orders were not much different than what Sweden did (look at the mobility reports - they basically were moving around about 5-10% more than we were), a lite lockdown was probably the best description. we had so many 'essential workers' carved out compared to other Western countries. Even then we could have reopened pretty successfully if we were just careful and took our time. Wait until you hit certain numbers before moving into the next phase, if the metrics aren't being hit pause where you are until they do, but that's not what we did. We basically rushed into reopening. As i said a month ago I was pretty happy at that time because when you looked at the numbers people were being pretty careful. They were sort of dipping their toes in the water, but once the week before Memorial Day started it just look like all the brakes came off.

This post from another board I visit by a conservative Canadian I thought summed it all up quite well.
Issue is these states could have reopened.

They just went from closing everything to have nightclubs opened overnight.

Here in Ontario
-first Garden Centres were opened
-Then curbside delivery for stores.
-Then stores that are outside malls opened.
-Restaurants have now opened but they can only do outdoor patios.
This process was done over 2 months.

The failure was not continuing the lockdown.

The failure was assuming Corona came and went like a movie with bad box office legs.


I'm still happy that the death numbers have been slowly declining and none of the models are showing huge spikes up, but the deaths are likely to increase in the next 7-10 days as hospitalizations nationally have been rising for 4-5 days now. The models have actually been pretty good, especially if you have either an ensemble model like they use for Hurricanes or if you take a number of models and use the median. The death numbers from those have been really on track. As my neighbors said, everything goes in phases. The first phase is an increase in cases, then comes an increase in hospitalizations, then finally comes an increase in deaths. Looking back at the data from this spring the peak death date came about 11 days after the peak hospitalization date and about 2 weeks after peak cases. How bad the death rate is depends upon how overwhelmed the health system becomes.

This whole topic I just take very personally, I have 2 couples in my cul-de-sac who are health care workers - 3 work in hospitals and 1 of them is an ICU nurse who spent 17 days fighting the virus after she contracted it. Fortunately she is doing great now and just had a beautiful baby boy 2 weeks ago. But what they have gone through is hell. Beyond the ICU nurse I have 2 other people I know who had the virus, including one of my wife's relatives. One had a mild case, one had a case similar to the ICU nurse. I just don't think it is a big deal to do the small things so we can have a more normal existence (even if it isn't the normality we had 6 months ago). I basically do the same things they do. If we are outside separated by more than 10 ft or so we don't use masks. If we are all sitting on the patio together we do. When I am out walking/running I am not wearing a mask unless I see people that I am not going to be able to keep more than 6 feet of distance from, then I put the mask on for a short time. If i'm in my car, in my house, with my immediate family, i'm not wearing a mask. If i'm going to any indoor public place I do wear a mask. I also always have a bottle of hand sanitizer on me in case I need it.

I just want to get the numbers to start coming back down so we don't have to face more restrictions. health systems don't get overwhelmed leading to higher death tolls, and the summer sort of gets lost.

 

[forensicbuzz]

It seems you struggle with logic. From Statista:

Data are based on reports by states and counties at the time of publication. Local governments may revise reported numbers as they get new information.

If a state has been proven to hide numbers and obfuscate the truth...that is not conjecture, but verified and even admitted to by the DeSantis himself, why would you try and use their numbers AGAIN to try and prove your point. What sense does it make to use false numbers? You're just using the same false numbers they're putting out. You're not proving anything.

From our conversations, you're a business owner. If one of your managers hid numbers to make his division look better than what it really is, what would you do? What if he hid numbers in such a way that you couldn't even grasp the full picture of what the heck was going on in the division he was responsible for? That is the gist of what DeSantis is doing.

Read this:

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/h...eaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

Infections are up, but they have to cobble hospitalization information together because DeSantis team is still hiding information:

Cases are climbing, but what about hospitalizations?

Unfortunately, the state isn’t very transparent when it comes to a trend of new hospitalizations, especially if they’re COVID-19 related. The Agency for Healthcare Administration (AHCA) does update hospital bed and ICU availability by county, but there’s not a way to backdate the data on this dashboard.

The hospital bed availability in Florida is at 28 percent as of June 22. The ICU availability is at 27 percent, up from the 22 percent we saw at one point last week, which was tied for the lowest in the country, according to covidexitstrategy.org.

Again, that doesn’t exactly tell the entire story either.

Miami-Dade County, which has seen 26 percent of the state’s cases, has been more open about COVID-19 hospitalizations. From June 9 to June 21, COVID-19 admitted patients were up at Miami-area hospitals.

As a business owner, would you trust any data coming out of Florida? Would have any confidence making business altering decisions based on their reported data?

The thing that the article doesn't touch upon is even the numbers they cobble together is made worse by the fact that DeSantis has changed hospitalization and death categories to the benefit of keeping those numbers down.

I am not singling out DeSantis as much as I'm telling you the numbers you're trying to hold up would fail any scientific study because it's manipulated. The media had to literally sue the state to even get the manipulated data even though those numbers should be made public for the good of Florida residents and the country.

I'm not adverse to your opinions on here, so don't take this that way. But, you were using the Johns Hopkins numbers to make a statement early, using the numbers (accurate as they were) to make a point about the US. Although the numbers were accurate as they were reported, they weren't accurate as you were using them. I didn't chime in because you guys were going back and forth and probably should have taken it to DM's, but whatever.

Using the Johns Hopkins numbers to put forward that we're responsible for 24% of the reported cases in the World is disingenuous because we all know that other countries are wildly underreporting. In the same vein, you're chastizing others for doing the same thing.

I think we're all smart enough to see through the obfuscation (at least most of us). Just struck me odd, so I thought I'd kibitz on your dialogue. Sorry for the interuption. Carry on.

 

[LibertyTurns]

could be 10x the amount of infections that whats known

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...xHC78jlR2lLmzcASFxQPf3rOH5kGUcS6VixALAwRaihS4

Hey somebody posted something worth reading. I hope to know tomorrow, but I suspect we’re now testing people that are largely asymptomatic when before that population would not have gotten a test. Those asymptomatic folks are generally younger, better health, less susceptible to hospitalization & death.

Now a person with C19 can spread it & there’s a multiplier effect as it migrates generating a higher number of positives. Not sure it’s a bad thing as we need to get to herd immunity. This does not change the fact that the very old, immunocompromised, diabetics, morbidly obese, etc are still at extreme risk and should not be out tromping around. Also, safe practices are unchanged- don’t go out if you’re sick, stay at home if you’re high risk, temp checks at work keep ill people out, wash your hands, wear masks in close proximity, distance as best possible, etc.

Some people are just not going to get it regardless of how many times it’s repeated on here.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Hey somebody posted something worth reading. I hope to know tomorrow, but I suspect we’re now testing people that are largely asymptomatic when before that population would not have gotten a test. Those asymptomatic folks are generally younger, better health, less susceptible to hospitalization & death.

Now a person with C19 can spread it & there’s a multiplier effect as it migrates generating a higher number of positives. Not sure it’s a bad thing as we need to get to herd immunity. This does not change the fact that the very old, immunocompromised, diabetics, morbidly obese, etc are still at extreme risk and should not be out tromping around. Also, safe practices are unchanged- don’t go out if you’re sick, stay at home if you’re high risk, temp checks at work keep ill people out, wash your hands, wear masks in close proximity, distance as best possible, etc.

Some people are just not going to get it regardless of how many times it’s repeated on here.

I still see pictures all over Facebook of my friends hanging out with their 80 year old parents having a jolly old time - no masks or distancing. We’ve known what we’ve known for months now. It’s getting to the point where IIWII.

 

[dtm1997]

This strategy should've been implemented sooner. A lot more people in the South would wear masks if it helps towards a college football season happening, whether you get to the stadium or watch at home.



ETA: CGC encouraged these common sense behaviors, but when it was just people's health, who cares? When it's college football season at risk, people might use common sense and wear masks.

 

[dtm1997]

@bwelbo has been recommending the same common sense Bill Curry tweeted today for quite a long time.

 

[slugboy]

I found some good posts at https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/. The writer was a drug researcher (and maybe still is).

On COVID-19 antibodies not lasting very long: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...ghts-on-antibody-persistence-and-the-pandemic.
TL;DR—“too early to tell, unfortunately”

I have a few more to read up on.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[MWBATL]

@bwelbo has been recommending the same common sense Bill Curry tweeted today for quite a long time.

It’s only sensible to follow precautions.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

@bwelbo has been recommending the same common sense Bill Curry tweeted today for quite a long time.

Thank you for your kind words. But really there are probably 10 (just guessing) regular site members who have been saying the exact same thing, and for a long time. It is indeed common sense.

 

[Techster]

I'm not adverse to your opinions on here, so don't take this that way. But, you were using the Johns Hopkins numbers to make a statement early, using the numbers (accurate as they were) to make a point about the US. Although the numbers were accurate as they were reported, they weren't accurate as you were using them. I didn't chime in because you guys were going back and forth and probably should have taken it to DM's, but whatever.

Using the Johns Hopkins numbers to put forward that we're responsible for 24% of the reported cases in the World is disingenuous because we all know that other countries are wildly underreporting. In the same vein, you're chastizing others for doing the same thing.

I think we're all smart enough to see through the obfuscation (at least most of us). Just struck me odd, so I thought I'd kibitz on your dialogue. Sorry for the interuption. Carry on.

Let's back up for a second. Let's all concede that ALL data reported on Covid doesn't reflect the true extent. If you go back to my earliest posts on this topic (now 300+ pages), you'll see that it was a point I made early: No one knows the true extent.

My error wasn't using the Johns Hopkins site, my error was not putting the caveat that there are untold cases that haven't and never will be identified. Given how too many us (myself included) love to argue about anything, I should have led off with that caveat.

So now let's get to the 24% on the Johns Hopkins site. Since we all agree (I hope) that reported numbers are not accurate, how do we at least get some picture of what's out there? How can we quantify and measure the extent of the events in the United States versus the rest of the world? IMO, and many may disagree, is to at least use a reputable site that measures C19. The overall point was not the "24%", but given the audience, of course that's what they latched onto. The overall point was the US it doing a terrible job and the numbers bear that.

Are other nations under reporting this? Yes, but guess what? So is the United States. We literally have a sitting president (PRESIDENT!) flat out telling the nation (and the world) that he slowed down the testing so the numbers wouldn't look so bad. @wrmathis linked to a report that the US most likely has ten times the amount of infections than what's reported. Which implies we have 20+ MILLION infected running around the country. Even if it's half that number is true does it mean the US has more infections than the rest of the world combined? Most likely not, but no one knows for sure do we?

The whole "the rest of world is under reporting" versus "the United States is under reporting" negates each other out and you use the best available data you can get.

If you think I'm being disingenuous by using the John Hopkins numbers the way I did, that's your perogative. However, information being reported everyday doesn't refute my point, does it? We can't prove the US doesn't have 24% of the world's infection any more than we can prove the US does (though the numbers I used give me better evidence to my point than yours)...and now given the CDC's report that the US probably TEN times the amount of reported cases I think my point is made.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Let's back up for a second. Let's all concede that ALL data reported on Covid doesn't reflect the true extent. If you go back to my earliest posts on this topic (now 300+ pages), you'll see that it was a point I made early: No one knows the true extent.

My error wasn't using the Johns Hopkins site, my error was not putting the caveat that there are untold cases that haven't and never will be identified. Given how too many us (myself included) love to argue about anything, I should have led off with that caveat.

So now let's get to the 24% on the Johns Hopkins site. Since we all agree (I hope) that reported numbers are not accurate, how do we at least get some picture of what's out there? How can we quantify and measure the extent of the events in the United States versus the rest of the world? IMO, and many may disagree, is to at least use a reputable site that measures C19. The overall point was not the "24%", but given the audience, of course that's what they latched onto. The overall point was the US it doing a terrible job and the numbers bear that.

Are other nations under reporting this? Yes, but guess what? So is the United States. We literally have a sitting president (PRESIDENT!) flat out telling the nation (and the world) that he slowed down the testing so the numbers wouldn't look so bad. @wrmathis linked to a report that the US most likely has ten times the amount of infections than what's reported. Which implies we have 20+ MILLION infected running around the country. Even if it's half that number is true does it mean the US has more infections than the rest of the world combined? Most likely not, but no one knows for sure do we?

The whole "the rest of world is under reporting" versus "the United States is under reporting" negates each other out and you use the best available data you can get.

If you think I'm being disingenuous by using the John Hopkins numbers the way I did, that's your perogative. However, information being reported everyday doesn't refute my point, does it? We can't prove the US doesn't have 24% of the world's infection any more than we can prove the US does (though the numbers I used give me better evidence to my point than yours)...and now given the CDC's report that the US probably TEN times the amount of reported cases I think my point is made.

Well you went off the rails again after making so many good points to pollute the thread with false political statements. Sad.

I've been called a liar, demanded to give links to support my assertions, and then despite all that here we are again. Most countries aren't testing like we do - their death rates bare that out despite many people (like you) probably believing their healthcare system is better than ours. Some countries have mass graves by the tens and tens and tens of thousands. First world countries have publicized that 'thousands and thousands' of people died at home, uncounted as COVID-19 cases and deaths because they didn't have enough hospital room and ventilators available. Do you see ANY of that here? No. I even did the math correcting death rates of other first world countries to show how many likely untested cases there are. To believe that a quarter of the entire world's cases are here in the United States is to disavow of all this type of news and information. You are of course free to ignore all that and just throw your hands up and say "we just can't really know".

 

[Techster]

Well you went off the rails again after making so many good points to pollute the thread with false political statements. Sad.

I've been called a liar, demanded to give links to support my assertions, and then despite all that here we are again. Most countries aren't testing like we do - their death rates bare that out despite many people (like you) probably believing their healthcare system is better than ours. Some countries have mass graves by the tens and tens and tens of thousands. First world countries have publicized that 'thousands and thousands' of people died at home, uncounted as COVID-19 cases and deaths because they didn't have enough hospital room and ventilators available. Do you see ANY of that here? No. I even did the math correcting death rates of other first world countries to show how many likely untested cases there are. To believe that a quarter of the entire world's cases are here in the United States is to disavow of all this type of news and information. You are of course free to ignore all that and just throw your hands up and say "we just can't really know".

No, I saw your links. You literally threw crap against the wall thinking that you made some point. I actually let it go because I didn't want to "pollute" this thread anymore than we both have. It just wasn't worth it.

Now you're just taking everything personally. I've tried to back away from our discussions, but you seem to want to ramp up the negativity with every reply. Go for it...for the sake of this thread and discourse, I won't reply to anything from you anymore.

Have a good day.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No, I saw your links. You literally threw crap against the wall thinking that you made some point. I actually let it go because I didn't want to "pollute" this thread anymore than we both have. It just wasn't worth it.

Now you're just taking everything personally. I've tried to back away from our discussions, but you seem to want to ramp up the negativity with every reply. Go for it...for the sake of this thread and discourse, I won't reply to anything from you anymore.

Have a good day.

Huh? Why do you always act like this? I don’t get how you get so upset at everything. Why can’t you just have a conversation.

I listed situations in major countries like the U.K., Spain, Italy, Brazil and others who publicly documented mass graves, thousands of people dying uncounted at home, and many other situations which we do not have here. You are welcome to call that “throwing crap against a wall”. Most people with an open mind would acknowledge that those countries had serious problems which we haven’t faced here. IIWII.