Coronavirus Thread

[Techster]

 

[RonJohn]

This has some interesting implications:

I don't put much stock in that. The report hasn't been peer reviewed. The study studied samples across two years and found one small amount of the virus in one sample about in the middle. I would suspect that there was an issue with that sample instead or a very small outbreak.

 

[Dpjacket]

Question to the many of you who have followed this closely throughout: In the early stages and the beginnings of the mask wearing there was quite a bit of chatter that most masks — the hankies, bandanas, cheap Home Depot shop masks — were essentially worthless against Covid. Indeed I think there is still debate on that topic among experts.

Isn’t it quite possible that the mask wearing is by no means a protection against spread, or only marginally preventative in a case of encountering a carrier, but also that just “having a mask” has created a false sense of security and likewise increased peoples’ willingness to gather? It’s occurred to me that the emphasis to mandate masks is as much as a reaction — with both experts, politicians and pundants — of, “well, we’ve got to say and do something because we really got no other ideas” in order to give people some sense of control about all this, when in fact it may do very little.

Mostly though was curious about any demonstrated science on the effectiveness of the average material and cheap masks? thanks-

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, Miami is closing down the beaches for July 4th weekend

Beaches in Miami-Dade County in Florida will close over the Fourth of July weekend out of concerns for social distancing amid the pandemic.

Mayor Carlos A. Gimenez released a statement Friday saying that he will sign an executive order closing all county beaches starting July 3 through July 7 and will also restrict any gatherings and parades of more than 50 people during that time. In those situations, masks and social distancing are required, and five groups of no more than 10 people will be allowed.

Additionally, residents will be limited to their homes or parked vehicles for viewing fireworks shows, as parks will be off limits.

“As we continue to see more COVID-19 positive test results among young adults and rising hospitalizations, I have decided that the only prudent thing to do to tamp down this recent uptick is to crack down on recreational activities that put our overall community at higher risk,” Gimenez wrote in his statement.

Gimenez said the Miami-Dade Police Department will close establishments that are flaunting the social distancing and mask rules and capacity limits. Additionally, violators could face a second-degree criminal penalty of up to $500 and 180 days in jail.

“I have been seeing too many businesses and people ignoring these lifesaving rules,” Gimenez wrote in his statement. “If people are not going to be responsible and protect themselves and others from this pandemic, then the government is forced to step in and restore common sense to save lives.”


Also, wanted to respond to the Clay Travis tweet as while the news of the study with the additional infections in good in terms of lowering the death rate overall (and was completely expected) he has a tendency to lose the forest for the trees.
If you take the number of deaths as of today, 125K, and divide that by the the 11.2M people who have estmated to have contracted it in the US (2.5M counted plus the 8.7M from the study).
That gives you a death rate of 1.1%.
Now if you are going to take the 8.7M, that means you should also accept the excess deaths calculations which currently run at 50-60%, so let's take toward the lower end of that so you have 190K deaths against 11.2M cases. That gives you a death rate of 1.7%. That's probably a more realistic number, still alot better than the current computed rate.

I'll be conservative and stick with the 1.1% figure. If you apply that to the 330M Americans that gives you a total number of deaths of 3.66M Americans. I doubt many people are going to think that is an acceptable loss of Americans. Keep in mind as the hospitalizations and deaths rise the health system would eventually crash causing the death rate to skyrocket so it would be much larger.
Even before you got to that the economy would completely crash as people would no longer be willing to leave their houses - we saw that in March when the deaths were in the tens of thousands.
So for an infectious disease a 98.9% survival rate is an awful number. One out of every 100 people dying is not something that most humans will tolerate. Keep in mind that in NY and NJ roughly one out of every 600-625 people who live in the state have died from the virus. Not one out of every 600-625 who contracted the disease, one out of every 600-625 who live there.

One last note - if you take that 11.25M and divide it by 330M you get an overall infection rate of 3.4% in the US - which is right in the ballpark of what most models project right now (3-5%).
Also means you need a 20-25X increase before any sort of herd immunity - assuming we get herd immunity as that hasn't been determined yet.

 

[Techster]

LOLOLOL...legendary statement:

 

[forensicbuzz]

LOLOLOL...legendary statement:

Can't see the tweet.

Edit: Until I quoted your post and it showed up in the quote portion of mine. Weird.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Question to the many of you who have followed this closely throughout: In the early stages and the beginnings of the mask wearing there was quite a bit of chatter that most masks — the hankies, bandanas, cheap Home Depot shop masks — were essentially worthless against Covid. Indeed I think there is still debate on that topic among experts.

Isn’t it quite possible that the mask wearing is by no means a protection against spread, or only marginally preventative in a case of encountering a carrier, but also that just “having a mask” has created a false sense of security and likewise increased peoples’ willingness to gather? It’s occurred to me that the emphasis to mandate masks is as much as a reaction — with both experts, politicians and pundants — of, “well, we’ve got to say and do something because we really got no other ideas” in order to give people some sense of control about all this, when in fact it may do very little.

Mostly though was curious about any demonstrated science on the effectiveness of the average material and cheap masks? thanks-

I think the point of masks is they prevent you if you have it from spraying aerosols of the virus out around you. You should also maintain distance. PPE is medical grade material they use at hospitals to protect healthcare professionals who are within close contact to all these things so that is different.

I always marveled about even during the shutdown we had 30,000 new cases per day. In hindsight, I think it was because people weren’t wearing masks and keeping distance. So whether you are shut down or not, you need to keep your distance and wear masks.

 

[Milwaukee]

Bankhead ATL last night. Not exactly distancing during a full on freak-nik.

 

[Techster]

Bankhead ATL last night. Not exactly distancing during a full on freak-nik.

Bankhead is trending on Twitter. There's a Korean buffalo wings place that's amazing off of Bankhead. Those people better not have brought the Covid to that restaurant...

 

[bobongo]

Interesting chart here - Comparison of the stark difference in coronavirus cases, U.S. vs. E.U.:

https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-two-different-pandemics-eu-vs-us

The United States and the European Union have comparable population sizes, but the trajectories of their COVID-19 outbreaks have been vastly different. New data released by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows that while there are around 4,000 new COVID cases in the EU each day, the United States is now recording more than 30,000 new cases of the virus each day – eight times higher than Europe.

 

[GT_EE78]

Mostly though was curious about any demonstrated science on the effectiveness of the average material and cheap masks? thanks-

Try post #41 in the protective mask thread. https://gtswarm.com/threads/protective-masks.21417/page-3
Cotton (by itself) is worthless for protecting the wearer from airborne particles, but many if not most come with a pocket so a filter material can be inserted.

 

[RamblinRed]

Interesting chart here - Comparison of the stark difference in coronavirus cases, U.S. vs. E.U.:

https://www.gzeromedia.com/the-graphic-truth-two-different-pandemics-eu-vs-us

The United States and the European Union have comparable population sizes, but the trajectories of their COVID-19 outbreaks have been vastly different. New data released by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention shows that while there are around 4,000 new COVID cases in the EU each day, the United States is now recording more than 30,000 new cases of the virus each day – eight times higher than Europe.

This is one of my favorite charts as it adjusts for both population and time (it starts when cases reach 1 per million people) - US's outbreak started weeks after Europe so this puts them on the same scale.
On a per capita basis cases in the US after we stopped the rise we never dropped below the peak of Europe's curve.

 

[bobongo]

This is one of my favorite charts as it adjusts for both population and time (it starts when cases reach 1 per million people) - US's outbreak started weeks after Europe so this puts them on the same scale.
On a per capita basis cases in the US after we stopped the rise we never dropped below the peak of Europe's curve.

Just after the peak, when the U.S. started a slight downward trend, was when the economy started to ease restrictions and open back up way too soon - and now we're paying the price.

 

[Techster]

Just after the peak, when the U.S. started a slight downward trend, was when the economy started to ease restrictions and open back up way too soon - and now we're paying the price.

The insane thing is there are people who disagree the United States did a poor job of handling this. That graph is a pretty stark display of how things are going off the rails for us.

 

[bobongo]

The insane thing is there are people who disagree the United States did a poor job of handling this. That graph is a pretty stark display of how things are going off the rails for us.

Europe is gradually opening up now, when the time is right:

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52575313

Meanwhile, in America we're going to have to shut it down again - either that or see a spike going higher than hell.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This has some interesting implications:

Yeah, traced to Spain. But probably started in Kansas like the last one. We better get ready to pay reparations (tic as we never did the first time)

Bankhead is trending on Twitter. There's a Korean buffalo wings place that's amazing off of Bankhead. Those people better not have brought the Covid to that restaurant...

Isn't this is the Kung Flu not the Kor Flu?

This is one of my favorite charts as it adjusts for both population and time (it starts when cases reach 1 per million people) - US's outbreak started weeks after Europe so this puts them on the same scale.
On a per capita basis cases in the US after we stopped the rise we never dropped below the peak of Europe's curve.

So why should the EU allow people from the US?

Europe is gradually opening up now, when the time is right:

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52575313

Meanwhile, in America we're going to have to shut it down again - either that or see a spike going higher than hell.

Hell is generally thought of as being down. Ask Dante.

PS - I'm suffering from no college baseball and trying to kill any possible COVID with beer (rather than clorox or UV light inserted into orifices).

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This is one of my favorite charts as it adjusts for both population and time (it starts when cases reach 1 per million people) - US's outbreak started weeks after Europe so this puts them on the same scale.
On a per capita basis cases in the US after we stopped the rise we never dropped below the peak of Europe's curve.

We didn’t have the hell on earth that Italy, Spain, the U.K., etc had. New York City did - compare their trend to Europe and you’ll see a good match.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Europe is gradually opening up now, when the time is right:

https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-52575313

Meanwhile, in America we're going to have to shut it down again - either that or see a spike going higher than hell.

The correlating factor is - how many idiots are out and about in close contact and not wearing masks.

We had 30,000 new cases per day DURING THE SHUTDOWN. The same issue we’ve always had we still have...it just depends how prevalent they are.

 

[bobongo]

The correlating factor is - how many idiots are out and about in close contact and not wearing masks.

We had 30,000 new cases per day DURING THE SHUTDOWN. The same issue we’ve always had we still have...it just depends how prevalent they are.

Exactly, which is why we should have continued with the shutdown until we got that number down around where Europe's is now.

 

[684Bee]

Exactly, which is why we should have continued with the shutdown until we got that number down around where Europe's is now.

Europe doesn’t work for much of the Summer anyway, so a shutdown is nothing new to them. Part of the reason why they are Europe and we are the United States.