Coronavirus Thread

[Milwaukee]

A sad story for those who keep beating the young people are at little risk drum.

https://www.newswest9.com/amp/artic...arty/287-ea8960ea-4c3c-40c1-b75e-f4437fe6f836

A young person thought he had a slight cough that he got from working. He actually had Covid. He went to a birthday party for a family member that probably never should have happened. 7 family members at that party also got Covid and spread it to 10 more family members. One of the people who got it is fighting breast cancer and thankfully is recovering from Covid. Two others were elderly. Both are still being hospitalized and one is on life support. Yes, the young person is going to be fine. The rest of his family is not.

Was that supposed to be a point of some sort? Why in the hell was a person fighting cancer and 2 elderly people there to begin with? There’s a virus going around that kills those exact people. Stupid people gonna stupid people y’all.

 

[Techster]

 

[WreckinGT]

Was that supposed to be a point of some sort? Why in the hell was a person fighting cancer and 2 elderly people there to begin with? There’s a virus going around that kills those exact people. Stupid people gonna stupid people y’all.

They weren't at the party. Someone at the party spread it to others at the party who spread it to others not at the party. The point is that yes, young people are less likely to die or need critical care but they can pretty easily spread it to others who spread it to others, etc, and it eventually finds its way to someone who is not as lucky as they are. I thought that point would have been obvious. So when we talk about young people at bars or football players and their need to be safe, this is what we are talking about. I just wanted to post it to give a real life example of a concept that some here have been struggling with.

 

[Milwaukee]

They weren't at the party. Someone at the party spread it to others at the party who spread it to others not at the party. The point is that yes, young people are less likely to die or need critical care but they can pretty easily spread it to others who spread it to others, etc, and it eventually finds its way to someone who is not as lucky as they are. I thought that point would have been obvious. So when we talk about young people at bars or football players and their need to be safe, this is what we are talking about. I just wanted to post it to give a real life example of a concept that some here have been struggling with.

The vulnerable people need to take responsibility and be accountable for their actions. Quarantine and isolate. I’m sure it sucks, but remember “this isn’t easy we are all making sacrifices”.

 

[WreckinGT]

The vulnerable people need to take responsibility and be accountable for their actions. Quarantine and isolate. I’m sure it sucks, but remember “this isn’t easy we are all making sacrifices”.

You do realize that it is nearly impossible for some elderly people to live without the assistance of younger people, right? Even if they are fully capable of that, to say its completely the older peoples fault they got the virus from a younger irresponsible family member who visited them for whatever reason is a bit stupid. Maybe the younger people can take some responsibility for their actions as well.

 

[MWBATL]

I highly suggest you do some research before criticizing someone else. Of course, if you think praise for someone who hides data and obfuscates the truth is warranted, then that probably says something about you.

Florida...death rate of 15 per 100,000....NY death rate of 161 per 100,000. Connecticut death rate of 120 per 100,000. New Jersey death rate of 147 per 100,000.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Your two articles are nothing in the overall scheme of things. You seem to focus on little things instead of the over-arching issue....how have various states performed?

So many in the media fail (over and over again) to put data and statistics in perspective, leading to horrible conclusions. Headlines scream about how Florida's case count is spiking....yet it will take one heck of a jump to catch up to the other states who have already gone through serious problems.

We should continue to manage these things, but why you are choosing to single out one politician is beyond me, when so many have been horribly wrong about so many things in this time period. The fact that you seem to only single out politicians from one party strongly suggest your comments are meant as political comments, which is inappropriate for this thread. Cuomo's demanding 40,000 ventilators comes to mind as another example of horrible management which turned out to be terribly wrong, for example. And frankly, I can understand why Florida wouldn't want to count as deaths locally New Yorkers who fled the problems up north ub carried the virus with them to Florida.

 

[MWBATL]

I think the big problem now is that people have completely stopped listening. Political leaders in both parties have been polarizing. The media has been exploitative and polarizing. When all of the public discussion is basically people taking extreme positions and yelling at each other, why should people listen?

QFT!

 

[Milwaukee]

You do realize that it is nearly impossible for some elderly people to live without the assistance of younger people, right? Even if they are fully capable of that, to say its completely the older peoples fault they got the virus from a younger irresponsible family member who visited them for whatever reason is a bit stupid. Maybe the younger people can take some responsibility for their actions as well.

Completely agree. What kind of idiot, young or old, would be visiting vulnerable people at this point. Stupid people gonna stupid people. Young people are stupid as well.

 

[Techster]

Florida...death rate of 15 per 100,000....NY death rate of 161 per 100,000. Connecticut death rate of 120 per 100,000. New Jersey death rate of 147 per 100,000.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Your two articles are nothing in the overall scheme of things. You seem to focus on little things instead of the over-arching issue....how have various states performed?

So many in the media fail (over and over again) to put data and statistics in perspective, leading to horrible conclusions. Headlines scream about how Florida's case count is spiking....yet it will take one heck of a jump to catch up to the other states who have already gone through serious problems.

We should continue to manage these things, but why you are choosing to single out one politician is beyond me, when so many have been horribly wrong about so many things in this time period. The fact that you seem to only single out politicians from one party strongly suggest your comments are meant as political comments, which is inappropriate for this thread. Cuomo's demanding 40,000 ventilators comes to mind as another example of horrible management which turned out to be terribly wrong, for example. And frankly, I can understand why Florida wouldn't want to count as deaths locally New Yorkers who fled the problems up north ub carried the virus with them to Florida.

It seems you struggle with logic. From Statista:

Data are based on reports by states and counties at the time of publication. Local governments may revise reported numbers as they get new information.

If a state has been proven to hide numbers and obfuscate the truth...that is not conjecture, but verified and even admitted to by the DeSantis himself, why would you try and use their numbers AGAIN to try and prove your point. What sense does it make to use false numbers? You're just using the same false numbers they're putting out. You're not proving anything.

From our conversations, you're a business owner. If one of your managers hid numbers to make his division look better than what it really is, what would you do? What if he hid numbers in such a way that you couldn't even grasp the full picture of what the heck was going on in the division he was responsible for? That is the gist of what DeSantis is doing.

Read this:

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/h...eaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

Infections are up, but they have to cobble hospitalization information together because DeSantis team is still hiding information:

Cases are climbing, but what about hospitalizations?

Unfortunately, the state isn’t very transparent when it comes to a trend of new hospitalizations, especially if they’re COVID-19 related. The Agency for Healthcare Administration (AHCA) does update hospital bed and ICU availability by county, but there’s not a way to backdate the data on this dashboard.

The hospital bed availability in Florida is at 28 percent as of June 22. The ICU availability is at 27 percent, up from the 22 percent we saw at one point last week, which was tied for the lowest in the country, according to covidexitstrategy.org.

Again, that doesn’t exactly tell the entire story either.

Miami-Dade County, which has seen 26 percent of the state’s cases, has been more open about COVID-19 hospitalizations. From June 9 to June 21, COVID-19 admitted patients were up at Miami-area hospitals.

As a business owner, would you trust any data coming out of Florida? Would have any confidence making business altering decisions based on their reported data?

The thing that the article doesn't touch upon is even the numbers they cobble together is made worse by the fact that DeSantis has changed hospitalization and death categories to the benefit of keeping those numbers down.

I am not singling out DeSantis as much as I'm telling you the numbers you're trying to hold up would fail any scientific study because it's manipulated. The media had to literally sue the state to even get the manipulated data even though those numbers should be made public for the good of Florida residents and the country.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It seems you struggle with logic. From Statista:

Data are based on reports by states and counties at the time of publication. Local governments may revise reported numbers as they get new information.

If a state has been proven to hide numbers and obfuscate the truth...that is not conjecture, but verified and even admitted to by the DeSantis himself, why would you try and use their numbers AGAIN to try and prove your point. What sense does it make to use false numbers? You're just using the same false numbers they're putting out. You're not proving anything.

From our conversations, you're a business owner. If one of your managers hid numbers to make his division look better than what it really is, what would you do? What if he hid numbers in such a way that you couldn't even grasp the full picture of what the heck was going on in the division he was responsible for? That is the gist of what DeSantis is doing.

Read this:

https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/h...eaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

Infections are up, but they have to cobble hospitalization information together because DeSantis team is still hiding information:

Cases are climbing, but what about hospitalizations?

Unfortunately, the state isn’t very transparent when it comes to a trend of new hospitalizations, especially if they’re COVID-19 related. The Agency for Healthcare Administration (AHCA) does update hospital bed and ICU availability by county, but there’s not a way to backdate the data on this dashboard.

The hospital bed availability in Florida is at 28 percent as of June 22. The ICU availability is at 27 percent, up from the 22 percent we saw at one point last week, which was tied for the lowest in the country, according to covidexitstrategy.org.

Again, that doesn’t exactly tell the entire story either.

Miami-Dade County, which has seen 26 percent of the state’s cases, has been more open about COVID-19 hospitalizations. From June 9 to June 21, COVID-19 admitted patients were up at Miami-area hospitals.

As a business owner, would you trust any data coming out of Florida? Would have any confidence making business altering decisions based on their reported data?

The thing that the article doesn't touch upon is even the numbers they cobble together is made worse by the fact that DeSantis has changed hospitalization and death categories to the benefit of keeping those numbers down.

I am not singling out DeSantis as much as I'm telling you the numbers you're trying to hold up would fail any scientific study because it's manipulated. The media had to literally sue the state to even get the manipulated data even though those numbers should be made public for the good of Florida residents and the country.

Huh? From your own references, Florida deaths may be off by up to 10%.

New York and New Jersey’s death rates are 161 and 147 per 100,000.

So if Florida’s 15 per 100,000 is off by 10%, it might then be 16.5 per 100,000.

So............HUH?

 

[wrmathis]

could be 10x the amount of infections that whats known

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...xHC78jlR2lLmzcASFxQPf3rOH5kGUcS6VixALAwRaihS4

 

[Techster]

Huh? From your own references, Florida deaths may be off by up to 10%.

New York and New Jersey’s death rates are 161 and 147 per 100,000.

So if Florida’s 15 per 100,000 is off by 10%, it might then be 16.5 per 100,000.

So............HUH?

Buddy, I highly suggest you read the article again. It didn't say the actual covid deaths are off by 10%, it said the period they studied was off by 10%. That was not representative of the Covid situation as a whole, it was a snapshot of how inaccurate the data is.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242552796.html

For a while, death counts released by the medical examiner’s commission were about 10 percent higher than the totals released by the health department. When the Tampa Bay Times reported the discrepancy last month, health regulators insisted that the commission stop disclosing the data, the Times reported.

Are you confident that the real numbers are only off by 10%?

That's the point. The fact that we're discussing manipulated numbers doesn't concern you? How far are we going to lower the bar?

 

[MWBATL]

Huh? From your own references, Florida deaths may be off by up to 10%.

New York and New Jersey’s death rates are 161 and 147 per 100,000.

So if Florida’s 15 per 100,000 is off by 10%, it might then be 16.5 per 100,000.

So............HUH?

Bingo....that was my point earlier in posting out that the variations he was complaining about were immaterial. He seemed to miss that point.

 

[Techster]

could be 10x the amount of infections that whats known

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...xHC78jlR2lLmzcASFxQPf3rOH5kGUcS6VixALAwRaihS4

It wouldn't shock anyone...I hope. There's evidence that the virus was around since last August, which is 3-4 months earlier than previously thought. How fast can spread occur in 3-4 months? People don't realize this, but Wuhon is a major business hub for China with over 11 million people. When it comes to infectious diseases, by the time you notice it's a problem, it's already too late.

 

[TampaBuzz]

As far as I know this is the most comprehensive data set for Florida. It gets down to the hospital level of available ICU beds. The woman that developed this site was fired by the State of Florida because she refused to ignore data as directed by her supervisors. I attach a link to the website, and a second link to an article that describes her motivation. You can form your own opinion about the quality of her numbers - I am not gonna force them down your throat. But they do paint a different picture than the official State of Florida website.

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/n...-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/

https://floridacovidaction.com/

 

[Techster]

As far as I know this is the most comprehensive data set for Florida. It gets down to the hospital level of available ICU beds. The woman that developed this site was fired by the State of Florida because she refused to ignore data as directed by her supervisors. I attach a link to the website, and a second link to an article that describes her motivation. You can form your own opinion about the quality of her numbers - I am not gonna force them down your throat. But they do paint a different picture than the official State of Florida website.

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/n...-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/

https://floridacovidaction.com/

The information her dashboard reports comes from publicly available state data, much of which is not reported front and center on state websites, but buried in thousand-page reports or scattered PDF files. It includes hard-to-find hospital capacity information provided by another state agency, the Agency for Health Care Administration.

Pretty insane that the data has to be researched into the minutia when pretty much every state makes it readily available. Even then, it's still not fully accurate because some of her data relies on data reported by state agencies that are under order to only report data according the governors requirements.

I mean, people are literally arguing percentages when the real story is the governor is out and out manipulating data or hiding it. We have lost the plot.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Buddy, I highly suggest you read the article again. It didn't say the actual covid deaths are off by 10%, it said the period they studied was off by 10%. That was not representative of the Covid situation as a whole, it was a snapshot of how inaccurate the data is.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242552796.html

For a while, death counts released by the medical examiner’s commission were about 10 percent higher than the totals released by the health department. When the Tampa Bay Times reported the discrepancy last month, health regulators insisted that the commission stop disclosing the data, the Times reported.

Are you confident that the real numbers are only off by 10%?

That's the point. The fact that we're discussing manipulated numbers doesn't concern you? How far are we going to lower the bar?

Buddy, I read the article. (Why do you always act like this?)

Again, there is no evidence I’ve seen anywhere that the numbers could be wildly incorrect. If there are other articles I’m missing or forgetting about, please let me know. But we’re comparing states whose death rates are 10x higher. That’s 1000%. A 10% error or even 20% or 30% isn’t material to the comparison. If the numbers are off by 50%, those states are still 800% higher.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The information her dashboard reports comes from publicly available state data, much of which is not reported front and center on state websites, but buried in thousand-page reports or scattered PDF files. It includes hard-to-find hospital capacity information provided by another state agency, the Agency for Health Care Administration.

Pretty insane that the data has to be researched into the minutia when pretty much every state makes it readily available. Even then, it's still not fully accurate because some of her data relies on data reported by state agencies that are under order to only report data according the governors requirements.

I mean, people are literally arguing percentages when the real story is the governor is out and out manipulating data or hiding it. We have lost the plot.

So then you’ll have to assert that if the governor is hiding data, he’s instructed 1,000 hospitals to all obfuscate their data, as well as those state agencies to obfuscate their data. They’d all on unison have to agree to do that, or else they would protest. Since they have the real data, they could easily publicize the discrepancies. This is like when Paul Krugman accused the bureau of labor and statistics of doctoring the jobs numbers because they were in the tank for the current administration. His colleagues and friends rightly called him out on it, noting that there were thousands and thousands of employees, and the notion that they could all be corrupted was paranoid and obscene and impossible.

If you’re saying the numbers are hard to find, that’s one thing. But what you’ve been saying here is that the numbers are false. There is no way for a governor to fake numbers over the tops of thousands of employees, hospitals, and state agencies.

 

[takethepoints]

On the effect of protests nationwide on COVID-19, see:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408.pdf

Usual caveats: this hasn't been peer reviewed and it's an early cut. Still, the cell phone data is indicative of an increase in social distancing (i.e. most people stayed home and away from protest locations) during the protests and, while the protests were quite large, the attendees were a very small proportion of the total population of the cities involved. Add in that a very substantial proportion of the protesters wore masks and that the demonstrations were all outside and usually moving and the situation becomes less threatening for the overall community picture of the virus. Not, mind, necessarily for the demonstrators themselves, though there's little evidence of spread there either. Yet.

This does not cover indoor events - there weren't any. So, the rallies or big indoor or outdoor sporting events/conventions are still a no-no. Oth, if attendance remains low at those there shouldn't be great fear of increased spread. Unless there are a lot of people from all over attending, of course.

Oh, and I wouldn't recommend going to see Notre Dame and Tech at MB under any circumstances, even if they turned off the AC and opened the roof. But if there is one game that will almost certainly be cancelled, that's the one.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

As far as I know this is the most comprehensive data set for Florida. It gets down to the hospital level of available ICU beds. The woman that developed this site was fired by the State of Florida because she refused to ignore data as directed by her supervisors. I attach a link to the website, and a second link to an article that describes her motivation. You can form your own opinion about the quality of her numbers - I am not gonna force them down your throat. But they do paint a different picture than the official State of Florida website.

https://www.tcpalm.com/story/news/n...-dashboard-to-rival-floridarsquos/3174482001/

https://floridacovidaction.com/

So using her dashboard, Florida has 3,000 COVID-19 deaths. New York, with less than half as many elderly people, has a Florida-population-adjusted death count of 28,000.

So again, data integrity is important, but even under the most strident critics of Florida, the data is in a completely different galaxy.