Coronavirus Thread

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GT_EE78 said:
I've read that from other sources too. Worldometers still reports a daily count for them. If accurate , they appear to be world leader for daily new cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/

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Funny timing - I just noticed the Brazil data was back online. They are now over 40,000 confirmed deaths (with their dire situation, lack of testing, and mass casualties, its likely significantly higher). I just read an article that said their daily new cases and daily deaths both doubled from one day to the next earlier this week. A week or so ago, I posted pictures and accounts of mass graves being dug to cover a hundred thousand dead and was ridiculed on here. This is all real. It is not fake news. And it is likely even worse than what we can see.
 

MWBATL

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Cases remains a very poor indicator of whether there is a surge or not....hospitalizations is probably a much better measure....here is an article putting much of the media hype into better perspective:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-second-wave-covid-scare-11591919250?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

As is so often the case, methinks the media doth protest too much!

(NB-It is interesting that the WSJ article does NOT mention South Carolina at all....)

In Arizona the weekly rolling average for new Covid-19 hospitalizations has been flat for a month. Emergency-room visits for Covid-19 have spiked this week, but the number of ER beds in use hasn’t changed since late April. Hospitals in Arizona (and California) have reported an increase in cases from U.S. citizens and green-card holders returning from Mexico where hospitals are overwhelmed. But with 22% of ICU beds and 62% of ventilators available, Arizona hospitals should have capacity to manage an increase in patients as it reopens.

Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes. The number of currently hospitalized patients per capita is still about 80% higher in New York City than in Texas. Mr. Abbott started reopening six weeks ago while Mr. Cuomo began letting manufacturing and construction resume in the Big Apple this week.
 

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MWBATL said:
Cases remains a very poor indicator of whether there is a surge or not....hospitalizations is probably a much better measure....here is an article putting much of the media hype into better perspective:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-second-wave-covid-scare-11591919250?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

As is so often the case, methinks the media doth protest too much!

(NB-It is interesting that the WSJ article does NOT mention South Carolina at all....)

In Arizona the weekly rolling average for new Covid-19 hospitalizations has been flat for a month. Emergency-room visits for Covid-19 have spiked this week, but the number of ER beds in use hasn’t changed since late April. Hospitals in Arizona (and California) have reported an increase in cases from U.S. citizens and green-card holders returning from Mexico where hospitals are overwhelmed. But with 22% of ICU beds and 62% of ventilators available, Arizona hospitals should have capacity to manage an increase in patients as it reopens.

Texas has also recently reported an uptick in Covid-19 hospitalizations, mostly in the Houston and Austin areas. Current Covid-19 hospitalizations are up about 20% since the state began to reopen, but Gov. Greg Abbott says hospitals aren’t overwhelmed and much of the increase is tied to nursing homes. The number of currently hospitalized patients per capita is still about 80% higher in New York City than in Texas. Mr. Abbott started reopening six weeks ago while Mr. Cuomo began letting manufacturing and construction resume in the Big Apple this week.
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SC for a couple months was seeing 75-175 new cases per day. About 10 days ago, we started increasing to 200, 250, 300...then 400s. Today we hit 770 new cases. I haven't found anything on COVID-19 specific hospitalizations. If anybody knows where to find that, please post it here as that is where the rubber meets the road. We are now about 10 days into the upward ramp of cases, so we should be seeing it hit there next unless its a bunch of young people.
 

takethepoints

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MWBATL said:
Cases remains a very poor indicator of whether there is a surge or not....hospitalizations is probably a much better measure....here is an article putting much of the media hype into better perspective:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-second-wave-covid-scare-11591919250?mod=opinion_lead_pos1

As is so often the case, methinks the media doth protest too much!
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I think most epidemiologists are using cases because the lag in reporting hospitalizations is substantial. With a disease this contagious, we need pretty much up to the minute data to see where outbreaks are developing. No doubt hospitalizations is a more valid indicator in the sense that it tells us about the serious cases, but it won't help us pounce on the thing in time.
 

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takethepoints said:
I think most epidemiologists are using cases because the lag in reporting hospitalizations is substantial. With a disease this contagious, we need pretty much up to the minute data to see where outbreaks are developing. No doubt hospitalizations is a more valid indicator in the sense that it tells us about the serious cases, but it won't help us pounce on the thing in time.
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Yes, and that's also going to be our challenge here in South Carolina at the same time. Because the younger people out protesting and hitting the bars and restaurants don't care about COVID-19. They're breaking all the health mandates and state rules. Many of them (most) don't wear masks, they congregate in large groups. I'm confident saying we are in an uncontrolled outbreak in my state. Our % of tests positive after months being 3% is at 15%. In other words, our higher cases is not because we are testing more (although we are). So even though we know what we have, telling the same people who are already not following the rules to start isn't going to change anything I don't think. The main thing is that the rest of us over the age of say 30 need to be just as vigilant as we always have been, if not more. In other words part two - we can't pounce on this I don't think - I don't think the people driving this bus will care. (The percentage of positive test results right now are heavily in the 20-24 age range.)
 

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takethepoints said:
Bolsonaro has joined a large group of heads of state around the world who are unable to understand what an exponential increase is. Too bad for his country.

Btw, when did you post links to the pictures and accounts of the mass graves in Brazil? Do it again, if you would.
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I did after I was questioned on it. You can google and see drone videos and pictures from around the country.

https://www.google.com/search?sourc...wLjEuMZgBAKABAbABDw&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp
 

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Clemson brought athletes back to start practicing and tested them all. 2 football players tested positive and 1 basketball player. Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead. Good for them.
 

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dtm1997 said:

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Where I am, the huge spike in cases is being lead by young people - out to bars and restaurants and protesting. They should have a near zero risk of serious health consequences. So good for them. They just need to make sure they aren’t spreading it to other people...of course their careless behavior is how they picked it up, so trying to get them to change so they don’t spread it won’t work either. It’s a two way street - so long as older people are careful they shouldn’t be at risk while the younger population gets herd immunity.
 

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NBC held a backward looking hours long COVID-19 special. They didn’t interview any current health experts. Of course they interviewed tons of previous health experts, who were desperate to cover their ***. They should have called the show “Hours Of Butthurt”. What a sorry excuse for journalism that was. For example, one suggestion/complaint was that we should have shut down 100% of international travel in January. Keep in mind we had less than 30 cases nationwide going into MARCH. Those suggestions would have been impossibilities, which is why at the time NOBODY WAS ADVOCATING THAT. A real journalist would challenged these people at every turn - why didn’t you call for that back then? Why didn’t you request that back then? Why didn’t you raise your hand back then? Idiots.
 
slugboy

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GoldZ said:
Yeah, but it's closed?
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GoldZ said:
Yeah, but it's closed?
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No, but it’s in the opt-in politics forum. You might need to go through the settings in John’s pinned post at the top of the Swarm Lounge to go to that forum.

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Saw this report this morning: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article.

They tracked the superspreader sites where 5-10 or more people were infected at one time in Japan. The study is Japanese, the CDC is sharing it in the US.

1. Healthcare facilities (30%) was the strongest source
2a. Nursing homes and day care centers were number 2 at 16%, tied with...
2b. Restaurants and bars
4. Offices and workplaces at 13% were next. Lots of time indoors next to others.
5. Music events (concerts/choir/karaoke) were fifth at 11%
6. Gyms were next at 8%. Possibly the saving grace is that people don’t spend 8 hours at a gym, usually.
7. Next came ceremonial occasions (birthdays, funerals, etc.) at 3%, and finally
8. Transportation (airplanes, etc.)

To make it short, being indoors in a crowd is bad. Breathing heavy in a shared space is risky (singing, exercising, etc.)

I haven’t put together the numbers to compare COVID infections vs. hang gliding, but while hang gliding may be riskier, it isn’t contagious.

Another factor is that a number of people have been saying “young people don’t have much or anything to worry about”. However, the strongest spreaders of COVID 19 in the study were in the 20-29 age range, and 30-39 was right behind them.


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Deleted member 2897

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slugboy said:
No, but it’s in the opt-in politics forum. You might need to go through the settings in John’s pinned post at the top of the Swarm Lounge to go to that forum.

———-
Saw this report this morning: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article.

They tracked the superspreader sites where 5-10 or more people were infected at one time in Japan. The study is Japanese, the CDC is sharing it in the US.

1. Healthcare facilities (30%) was the strongest source
2a. Nursing homes and day care centers were number 2 at 16%, tied with...
2b. Restaurants and bars
4. Offices and workplaces at 13% were next. Lots of time indoors next to others.
5. Music events (concerts/choir/karaoke) were fifth at 11%
6. Gyms were next at 8%. Possibly the saving grace is that people don’t spend 8 hours at a gym, usually.
7. Next came ceremonial occasions (birthdays, funerals, etc.) at 3%, and finally
8. Transportation (airplanes, etc.)

To make it short, being indoors in a crowd is bad. Breathing heavy in a shared space is risky (singing, exercising, etc.)

I haven’t put together the numbers to compare COVID infections vs. hang gliding, but while hang gliding may be riskier, it isn’t contagious.

Another factor is that a number of people have been saying “young people don’t have much or anything to worry about”. However, the strongest spreaders of COVID 19 in the study were in the 20-29 age range, and 30-39 was right behind them.


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Yup, young people don’t have much to worry about, but unfortunately they’re terrible at following directions and thinking about others based on their behavior during the pandemic.
 
LibertyTurns

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bwelbo said:
Yup, young people don’t have much to worry about, but unfortunately they’re terrible at following directions and thinking about others based on their behavior during the pandemic.
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There’s plenty of things people do that impact others & we don’t get all outraged about it. People overeat, smoke, etc. If I’m old & feeble I can stay at home & your behavior impacts me by restricting my freedom. You smoke, are obese, smoke dope, are an alcoholic, etc which are also things under your personal control & you drive my healthcare costs up to the point I can no longer afford coverage for myself and I get sicker/die sooner that I would have otherwise, well all of that is ok. I can’t avoid that by staying home, you’re screwing me 24 hrs a day everyday.
 
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