Coronavirus Thread

[Wrecked]

The Office for National Statistics in England says that as of April 17th deaths in England and Wales due to COVID19 is undercounted by at least 54%.
Official number on the date was over 14K, actual number was over 22K.

Two recent polls suggest that support for stay at home measures is still strong right now.
Reuters/IPSOS poll last week has support for maintaining stay at home orders even if it negatively impacts the economy at 72%, 17% support re-opening even if cases and deaths increase.
The Reuters poll does show the support for stay at home measures starting to wane some among Republicans (55% in favor, 45% oppose, that's up from 24% of Republicans at the end of March)
Politico/Morning Consult poll released today puts support for the stay at home orders even if it negatively impacts the economy at 73% with opening even if deaths and cases increase at 15%.
In the Morning Consult poll 79% said it was very or somewhat likely there will be a second wave.

In the State of GA a poll released last night puts the numbers for the stay at home order as 52% favor, 24% somewhat favor, 15% neutral, 6% somewhat oppose, 3% oppose. In terms of businesses closing 51% favor, 26% somewhat favor, 14% neutral, 6% somewhat oppose, 4% oppose.
Approval for Gov Kemp's plan to re-open: 43% strongly oppose, 19% somewhat oppose, 14% neutral, 14% somewhat approve, 10% strongly approve
Measures taken by the Federal Government: 52% appropriate, 14% gone too far, 34% not gone far enough
Measures taken by the state government: 44% appropriate, 15% gone too far, 42% not gone far enough

The CDC website has 7 different models on its website currently. One looks at actual deaths due to mitigation compared to likely deaths if no mitigation was taken.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
It has likely actual deaths as of May 18th at 89,795 (range 63,719 - 127,002). Deaths if no mitigation measures had been taken in the US as of May 13th of 1,010,974 (range of 769,511-1,315,961)

Polls are about as useful to helping this situation as the original models are. Here is a number that nobody should ignore: GDP drops 4% in Q1 and is expected to drop 20% in Q2. Half that decline is the healthcare field, which we were supposed to be protecting with this lockdown.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

 

[684Bee]

The Office for National Statistics in England says that as of April 17th deaths in England and Wales due to COVID19 is undercounted by at least 54%.
Official number on the date was over 14K, actual number was over 22K.

Two recent polls suggest that support for stay at home measures is still strong right now.
Reuters/IPSOS poll last week has support for maintaining stay at home orders even if it negatively impacts the economy at 72%, 17% support re-opening even if cases and deaths increase.
The Reuters poll does show the support for stay at home measures starting to wane some among Republicans (55% in favor, 45% oppose, that's up from 24% of Republicans at the end of March)
Politico/Morning Consult poll released today puts support for the stay at home orders even if it negatively impacts the economy at 73% with opening even if deaths and cases increase at 15%.
In the Morning Consult poll 79% said it was very or somewhat likely there will be a second wave.

In the State of GA a poll released last night puts the numbers for the stay at home order as 52% favor, 24% somewhat favor, 15% neutral, 6% somewhat oppose, 3% oppose. In terms of businesses closing 51% favor, 26% somewhat favor, 14% neutral, 6% somewhat oppose, 4% oppose.
Approval for Gov Kemp's plan to re-open: 43% strongly oppose, 19% somewhat oppose, 14% neutral, 14% somewhat approve, 10% strongly approve
Measures taken by the Federal Government: 52% appropriate, 14% gone too far, 34% not gone far enough
Measures taken by the state government: 44% appropriate, 15% gone too far, 42% not gone far enough

The CDC website has 7 different models on its website currently. One looks at actual deaths due to mitigation compared to likely deaths if no mitigation was taken.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html
It has likely actual deaths as of May 18th at 89,795 (range 63,719 - 127,002). Deaths if no mitigation measures had been taken in the US as of May 13th of 1,010,974 (range of 769,511-1,315,961)

Yeah, it should surprise no one that, when you create a situation whereby many people are making more money sitting at home, and many more salaried people don’t have to dress up and commute to an office, that most of those folks would favor keeping things the way they are a little while longer. Pretty rational choice for those people.

As for the small business guy, like me, I’d like to get the wheels of commerce turning again.

 

[takethepoints]

We didn't get herd immunity or a vaccine for either HIV/AIDS, SARS, or MERS, nor did we institute any kind of lockdowns for them, and yet none of them are considered threats now, HIV/AIDS because significant preventive and protective measures were adapted.

I've been over this before.

First, SARS and MERS. Both these diseases had easily discernible symptoms and those infected were only contagious when they were symptomatic. That meant that a contact/trace/isolate strategy - like what we should be doing now - could work. Isolate the infected, find their contacts and isolate them, then let the disease run its course. This was easier to do since a) both disease could only be transmitted by direct contact with an infected person and b) both were fairly hard to catch even then. That's why the diseases "burned out"; we didn't give the virus a chance to propagate and both are now minor problems. They are still out there, but it is very easy to stop their spread. The strategy also worked because both were more deadly: SARS had a IFR of 10%, MERS 36%(yikes). It was easy to get people's attention when the chance of dying was that high. Result = no vaccine yet, though efforts continue at a lower level of urgency.

Second, HIV. This one is also hard to catch; it demands very close contact with an infected person. It can be harder to do contact/trace/isolate with, however, because asymptomatic people can transmit it. There were big and pretty successful campaigns to reduce disease transmission though behavioral changes, much as with COVID, and, at first, there were sustained efforts for produce a vaccine. That proved difficult since HIV has a nasty tendency to mutate in the presence of antibodies and can "hide out" in the body for long periods before causing breakdowns in the immune system. But … it proved unnecessary because to the development of successful anti-viral drugs; now people with HIV can live full life spans with only minor problems. Once that happened, development of a vaccine - they're still trying - went on the back burner. Indeed, there's an active disincentive to develop a vaccine for HIV. If you are a pharma company and you produce anti-virals for HIV, the last thing you want to see is a vaccine. Ain't capitalism wonderful?

Now, COVID-19. This one is extremely contagious and spreads mostly through normal spittle or direct contact generated in interactions, just like the pneumonic plague did. It can also be spread by asymptomatic infected persons, another piece of bad news. And, while it isn't a bad as SARS/MERS in terms of IFR, it can - and has - infected much larger numbers of people. Hence, even with a lower IFR, you can still get more deaths. And, since it is a brand new virus among humans, there isn't any natural immunity to it. And there's no vaccine. Result = trouble; widespread, deep trouble. Again, the way to stop something like this is with contact/trace/isolate, just like with SARS/MERS. Problem = since it is so contagious we have to get as many people as possible away from others to have a fighting chance to keep transmission rates down so that we don't end up with an overwhelmed health system. We saw what moving slow on that could lead to in Italy and now, regrettably, here in the US. A vaccine will be developed for this, however; there are 8B customers for it and efforts are on the way everywhere. And since so many people are getting sick - and this isn't just any old jive sickness too boot - there's no way this could be handled by anti-virals, as with HIV. It would be prohibitively expensive, except as a clinical intervention. Soooooo … chances are we'll get one, thought how soon and how effective will await events.

Bottom line = you are comparing apples and oranges here. Locking down the country until we get ahead of this thing is a prudent measure. We'll have to partially open up, of course, but all we can hope for is that the virus doesn't re-ignite at a higher level. We need that vaccine.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I've been over this before.

First, SARS and MERS. Both these diseases had easily discernible symptoms and those infected were only contagious when they were symptomatic. That meant that a contact/trace/isolate strategy - like what we should be doing now - could work. Isolate the infected, find their contacts and isolate them, then let the disease run its course. This was easier to do since a) both disease could only be transmitted by direct contact with an infected person and b) both were fairly hard to catch even then. That's why the diseases "burned out"; we didn't give the virus a chance to propagate and both are now minor problems. They are still out there, but it is very easy to stop their spread. The strategy also worked because both were more deadly: SARS had a IFR of 10%, MERS 36%(yikes). It was easy to get people's attention when the chance of dying was that high. Result = no vaccine yet, though efforts continue at a lower level of urgency.

Second, HIV. This one is also hard to catch; it demands very close contact with an infected person. It can be harder to do contact/trace/isolate with, however, because asymptomatic people can transmit it. There were big and pretty successful campaigns to reduce disease transmission though behavioral changes, much as with COVID, and, at first, there were sustained efforts for produce a vaccine. That proved difficult since HIV has a nasty tendency to mutate in the presence of antibodies and can "hide out" in the body for long periods before causing breakdowns in the immune system. But … it proved unnecessary because to the development of successful anti-viral drugs; now people with HIV can live full life spans with only minor problems. Once that happened, development of a vaccine - they're still trying - went on the back burner. Indeed, there's an active disincentive to develop a vaccine for HIV. If you are a pharma company and you produce anti-virals for HIV, the last thing you want to see is a vaccine. Ain't capitalism wonderful?

Now, COVID-19. This one is extremely contagious and spreads mostly through normal spittle or direct contact generated in interactions, just like the pneumonic plague did. It can also be spread by asymptomatic infected persons, another piece of bad news. And, while it isn't a bad as SARS/MERS in terms of IFR, it can - and has - infected much larger numbers of people. Hence, even with a lower IFR, you can still get more deaths. And, since it is a brand new virus among humans, there isn't any natural immunity to it. And there's no vaccine. Result = trouble; widespread, deep trouble. Again, the way to stop something like this is with contact/trace/isolate, just like with SARS/MERS. Problem = since it is so contagious we have to get as many people as possible away from others to have a fighting chance to keep transmission rates down so that we don't end up with an overwhelmed health system. We saw what moving slow on that could lead to in Italy and now, regrettably, here in the US. A vaccine will be developed for this, however; there are 8B customers for it and efforts are on the way everywhere. And since so many people are getting sick - and this isn't just any old jive sickness too boot - there's no way this could be handled by anti-virals, as with HIV. It would be prohibitively expensive, except as a clinical intervention. Soooooo … chances are we'll get one, thought how soon and how effective will await events.

Bottom line = you are comparing apples and oranges here. Locking down the country until we get ahead of this thing is a prudent measure. We'll have to partially open up, of course, but all we can hope for is that the virus doesn't re-ignite at a higher level. We need that vaccine.

You miss my point entirely, or maybe I didn't state it well. The fact is that there is absolutely no guarantee that we will ever develop a vaccine for Copid. We have been told over and over again that it will be at least 1 year, although CBS reported last night on a vaccine already in testing in England, if I remember correctly, that will be ready in August. Yeah, right; that would be the fastest ever in history. If you don't think sexually active people would like to have a vaccine for HIV, then you are apparently happily married and monogamous. Way too many people in this world are not in that position, and they would give anything for a vaccine. The fact that it has been 30+ years without finding one, and, as already said, 10+ years without finding one for SARS and MERS, in spite of the lack of similarity to Copid, is not encouraging. Obviously, we all hope one is found; but we simply cannot stop living while waiting on one.

 

[bobongo]

So do you believe that South Carolina should have the exact same restrictions as downtown Chicago? Should farmers in the middle of Nebraska stay locked in their bedrooms like people in studio apartments in NYC?

For one thing, no one is locked in their bedroom, and obviously there is no comparison between downtown Chicago and a farm in Nebraska.

Of the 50 states, not a single one of them qualifies for re-opening under guidelines set forth by the White House. When these guidelines were released, I said they were reasonable, as long as we have adequate testing and the 14-day decline in cases is substantial. I still think they're reasonable.:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-state-met-14-day-230252981.html

"Even as the U.S. hit the grim milestone of more than 1 million cases Tuesday — one-third of the world's total — Georgia, Minnesota and other states are pushing to reopen businesses, even though new infection rates are still rising."

 

[bobongo]

This from mid-April makes a case for under reported deaths.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...igher-than-reported-infographic/#635fec9a5437

Indeed, excess deaths are probably a more accurate appraisal of the total number.:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...tens-of-thousands/ar-BB13moSl?ocid=spartandhp

"Left out of the tally are people who died without being tested and those who died at home or some other non-healthcare facilities before they could seek medical care."

 

[takethepoints]

You miss my point entirely, or maybe I didn't state it well. The fact is that there is absolutely no guarantee that we will ever develop a vaccine for Copid. We have been told over and over again that it will be at least 1 year, although CBS reported last night on a vaccine already in testing in England, if I remember correctly, that will be ready in August. Yeah, right; that would be the fastest ever in history. If you don't think sexually active people would like to have a vaccine for HIV, then you are apparently happily married and monogamous. Way too many people in this world are not in that position, and they would give anything for a vaccine. The fact that it has been 30+ years without finding one, and, as already said, 10+ years without finding one for SARS and MERS, in spite of the lack of similarity to Copid, is not encouraging. Obviously, we all hope one is found; but we simply cannot stop living while waiting on one.

No, I took your point. I don't think you are right.

I'm sure that everybody would like a vaccine for HIV, but … well, let's take my situation. I'm subject to attacks of the gout. It's a genetic disorder, but I once asked my doctor if, with the new emphasis on genetic medicine, there was anyway they could inoculate me against gout. He said it was theoretically possible, but that since they already had drugs - I take one - that inhibit uric acid production (that's what causes it) that it would never be done. "But," I said, "that means I'll take allopurinol for the rest of my life!" He smiled and said, "Now you know why they won't develop another treatment."

As to COVID-19: most of the vaccines now getting ready for tests are, in fact, using techniques already developed by labs looking for a SARS/MERS vaccine. That's why so many experimental vaccines are on track so quickly; we already have substantial experience based on the other diseases. That - and the truly enormous financial incentives - is why I think we'll get one.

As to not waiting around for a vaccine, we agree. Once we get a downward trend in the admissions/deaths, we should think about a phased re-opening of the service industries. Problem = we haven't seen that yet. I was encouraged over the weekend by a decrease in deaths; yesterday it's back over 2K dead. Until that goes down consistently over a substantial amount of time, we are simply asking for it if we take our foot off the brake. And, believe me, the virus will accommodate us.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

No, I took your point. I don't think you are right.

I'm sure that everybody would like a vaccine for HIV, but … well, let's take my situation. I'm subject to attacks of the gout. It's a genetic disorder, but I once asked my doctor if, with the new emphasis on genetic medicine, there was anyway they could inoculate me against gout. He said it was theoretically possible, but that since they already had drugs - I take one - that inhibit uric acid production (that's what causes it) that it would never be done. "But," I said, "that means I'll take allopurinol for the rest of my life!" He smiled and said, "Now you know why they won't develop another treatment."

As to COVID-19: most of the vaccines now getting ready for tests are, in fact, using techniques already developed by labs looking for a SARS/MERS vaccine. That's why so many experimental vaccines are on track so quickly; we already have substantial experience based on the other diseases. That - and the truly enormous financial incentives - is why I think we'll get one.

As to not waiting around for a vaccine, we agree. Once we get a downward trend in the admissions/deaths, we should think about a phased re-opening of the service industries. Problem = we haven't seen that yet. I was encouraged over the weekend by a decrease in deaths; yesterday it's back over 2K dead. Until that goes down consistently over a substantial amount of time, we are simply asking for it if we take our foot off the brake. And, believe me, the virus will accommodate us.

Again, it's a matter of IF we even get a vaccine. I'm sure work will continue, as it should, in looking for one, but there is no guarantee that they will ever find one. Remember, even flu vaccines don't work for everyone, and some are even negatively affected by them. So who knows how universally effective what they find will be, at least on the first stab. On a side note, prior to all this mess, the flu season for this year was projected to be as bad as it was in 2018. Why don't we hear anything about flu deaths now? How do they currently stand up to projections and in comparison to Covid deaths?

 

[bobongo]

Again, it's a matter of IF we even get a vaccine. I'm sure work will continue, as it should, in looking for one, but there is no guarantee that they will ever find one. Remember, even flu vaccines don't work for everyone, and some are even negatively affected by them. So who knows how universally effective what they find will be, at least on the first stab. On a side note, prior to all this mess, the flu season for this year was projected to be as bad as it was in 2018. Why don't we hear anything about flu deaths now? How do they currently stand up to projections and in comparison to Covid deaths?

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

From the article, U.S. numbers:
COVID-19: 58,355 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 29, 2020.
Flu: 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

COVID-19 has already killed just about as many as flu kills in its worst year.

 

[RamblinRed]

Again, it's a matter of IF we even get a vaccine. I'm sure work will continue, as it should, in looking for one, but there is no guarantee that they will ever find one. Remember, even flu vaccines don't work for everyone, and some are even negatively affected by them. So who knows how universally effective what they find will be, at least on the first stab. On a side note, prior to all this mess, the flu season for this year was projected to be as bad as it was in 2018. Why don't we hear anything about flu deaths now? How do they currently stand up to projections and in comparison to Covid deaths?

The total deaths reported due to flu as of Jan 20th was 8200. Since then I believe another 2,000 or so have been added. That is a really bad flu season. Keep in mind when the CDC provides flu estimates those are only done on the backend and are much higher than the actual tracked deaths - usually by a multiple of 4-6. This is why you cannot compare flu death estimates to COVID19 actual counts. They are apples and oranges. You can compare flu death counts to COVID19 counts (so roughly 10K to currently more than 50K), or wait for backend analysis to be done to determine COVID19 estimates (which will end up much higher than the current actual) to flu death estimates.
There is also some concern that some of the deaths attributed to flu late in the season may be COVID related and not flu related as we did not realize it was already here and circulating.

My belief is that long term the most likely answer for COVID19 is a flu like vaccine that we have to get every few years. We are starting to see news from multiple countries - SK and Germany to start, that antibodies may not give you full immunity. It may depend upon how many antibodies you have,which is often a reflection of how serious a case you had. Someone who was asymptomatic or had a mild case, may not have immunity, or only have limited immunity where that individual could get infected again and either get a much more serious case and/or pass it along to others. Way too early to know any of that for sure though.

On the medical front, some good news today as it appears Remdesivir may have some positive theraputic effects. In the first controlled study it reduced the time in the hospital by about 4 days compared to a placebo group (11 days vs 15). This is no miracle drug, but would at least help a little. It may also have a minor effect in terms of deaths, but that is really too early to tell. This result will be enough for it to get emergency approval from the FDA to be used in hospitals. 2 other studies released today were more mixed on its effectiveness. if nothing else it may be enough to get more people to be willing to take part in studies on it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171

This article does a good job of explaining in layman terms why COVID19 is so much more dangerous than other infectious diseases -even ones with much higher mortality rates. Basically it hits the sweet spot between high transmitability, fairly deadly, and can spread silently (through asymptomatic people who are contagious) that make it really difficult to get in front of and contain.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...for-covid-19-but-not-ebola-sars-or-swine-flu/

 

[RamblinRed]

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

From the article, U.S. numbers:
COVID-19: 58,355 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 29, 2020.
Flu: 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

COVID-19 has already killed just about as many as flu kills in its worst year.

Amd keep in mind you are comparing actual counts to estimates which is not really comparing apples to apples. The 10 yr avg estimate for flu deaths in the US is 32K per yr.
If you used estimates for COVID19 rather than actual counts the estimate would likely already be approaching or over 100K as of today.

 

[bobongo]

On the medical front, some good news today as it appears Remdesivir may have some positive theraputic effects. In the first controlled study it reduced the time in the hospital by about 4 days compared to a placebo group (11 days vs 15). This is no miracle drug, but would at least help a little. It may also have a minor effect in terms of deaths, but that is really too early to tell. This result will be enough for it to get emergency approval from the FDA to be used in hospitals. 2 other studies released today were more mixed on its effectiveness. if nothing else it may be enough to get more people to be willing to take part in studies on it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/heal...remdesivir-shows-promise-large-trial-n1195171

Nicotine patches may be the answer. Amazingly few smokers seem to get seriously ill enough to go to the hospital with COVID-19.:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ng-tested-on-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB133Qmk

I quit smoking 28 years ago. If I get sick with coronavirus, nicotine patches may re-ignite my addiction. How's that for irony?

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Nicotine patches may be the answer. Amazingly few smokers seem to get seriously ill enough to go to the hospital with COVID-19.:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ng-tested-on-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB133Qmk

I quit smoking 28 years ago. If I get sick with coronavirus, nicotine patches may re-ignite my addiction. How's that for irony?

Funny that initially, smokers were said to have a high risk of contracting Covid, and now they are saying the opposite. Good reason not to quit smoking, if you do, I guess. LOL

 

[takethepoints]

Well, here's what I'm sure everyone was waiting for: another admonition from an epidemiologist! See:

https://metropole.at/open-letter-yale-epidemologist/

So why post it? Two reasons. First, this wasn't written for a general audience; Smith wasn't trying to pump his academic rep. He wrote this for his neighbors to get them up to speed on what they needed to do and why. Good advice. Second, the post is full of useful links to other work. My favorite:



To really learn what this is saying, scroll back to the beginning and run the whole thing.

Update: when you click through, you get an ad for The Epoch Times. This is an outfit associated with Falun Gong, the Chinese "spiritual movement". No need to feed that particular beast.

 

[cyclejacket]

It wouldn't have worked as well, but it would have worked a helluva lot better than what we tried. What we tried was something in-between Sweden and New Zealand - a no-man's land of half-measures too little too late with inadequate testing - the worst possible "strategy", if you could even call it that. In a reasonable world the states would have gotten together, listened to the scientists, and agreed to make the sacrifice early on. We would be recovering now instead of indulging in wishful thinking.

Looking forward to your data to support this assertion. It's amazing that you never get tired of posting the same damn thing. Orange man bad, a fifth grader would have done better, I have a paycheck so damn those people who don't, etc.

 

[GT_EE78]

> Yup , a case of corona,double order fries and plenty of cigs will keep that chinese virus away
Belgium faces massive potato surplus; trade association asks citizens to eat more fries
Belgapom, a trade association for Belgium’s potato industry, is asking the country’s residents to double their tater intake to help make use of a massive potato surplus that has only been building up since restaurants began closing, or limiting service to takeout, due to the coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/belgium-potato-surplus-asking-citizens-eat-fries-coronavirus

 

[GT_EE78]

> there will likely be more of these, it's time for most to get back to work
Judge Rules Against Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s Lockdown Extension
https://abc14news.com/2020/04/27/judge-rules-against-illinois-gov-j-b-pritzkers-lockdown-extension/

 

[GT_EE78]

> I'd take the US data times 4 for population adjustment to guestimate what happened in China
US Intel Officials Believe 45,500 Corpses Were Incinerated In One Fortnight In Wuhan
It is believed that US intelligence has in its possession satellite images showing funeral homes in Wuhan overwhelmed by dead bodies. Officials believe that incinerators have been in constant use for 24 hours a day since the outbreak began.
https://summit.news/2020/04/28/us-i...s-were-incinerated-in-one-fortnight-in-wuhan/

 

[GT_EE78]

> I dunno but its an interesting thought and it's time to move out on reopening
Bipartisan Coalition Pushing $46 Billion Plan to Reopen U.S.
The former health officials recommend breaking down the funding into three public health areas: $12 billion to expand the contact tracing workforce, $4.5 billion for use of vacant hotels for infected and exposed individuals to self-isolate, and $30 billion for 18 months of income support for individuals who volunteer to isolate themselves. .https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...lition-pushing-46-billion-plan-to-reopen-u-s/

 

[FredJacket]

How will contact tracing work here in US as it relates to privacy rights?