Coronavirus Thread

[RonJohn]

This is what we should have done - lock down from the outset - and now we would be ready to re-open. Sadly, we're re-opening but we are not ready.

When would the lock down have started? There was a story earlier this week that says they are studying cases from as early as December to see if it was already in the US at that point. Since nobody in the US was tested in December, we can't know for sure how widespread cases back then might have been. We can potentially find out using antibody tests if some of the people who were sick with mystery viruses last year did indeed have COVID-19. If the virus was already spreading as far back as December, then locking down in February wouldn't have been a 100% solution.

I am not trying to defend the President, nor anyone else. I am simply pointing out that there is so much information that is not known at this point that it is too early to assign blame. There will be plenty of time later, and once information is more complete. We should concentrate on solving issues, both health and economic instead of fighting over things that solve neither at this point.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

https://twitter.com/BioscienceAytu

It is still there...

Yeah, it is, and so are the ones about the doctors. Someone said they were initially removed and then restored. I have no idea.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Here's a good article about a neglected aspect of the pandemic and our response to it:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/learning-from-las-vegas-research-ethics-and-covid-19/

I think Gardner is right. It is obvious that, however silly some of her remarks are, Goodman is not a complete fool. What she is is a common breed of American: the person in authority who has never thought twice about the ethics of research. She isn't completely alone in this; you can read stories of researchers zooming IRBs fairly regularly and most of them don't feel at all bad about it until they are caught. This is because how to do research without screwing over people or misleading future researchers is something regularly ignored in course work and practical applications. (I (ahem) did two lectures on this in my methods course and touched on it regularly. Others don't.)

Well, now we are learning about how this can be a problem, big time. The hydroxycloroquine fiasco is a great example, but there are plenty of others.

The VA study of hydroxchloroquine is a good example of s study done completely wrongly, making it meaningless.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

As for forecasting doom and gloom, use this handy formula:

(Population in question * Infection rate) * Infection fatality rate = total deaths

As like for the US:

(330M * (say) 25%) * .0074% (the New York and Miami figure for IFR) = 610,500 deaths

Then remember we are only in the first phase of the epidemic. All this "flatten the curve" stuff was never meant to do anything except save the healthcare system from being swamped and losing lives due to lack of care, as in Italy. It doesn't have much to do with how many deaths we can expect over the course of the disease, barring successful therapies. The only thing that'll slow the course of the disease down is what we are doing right now and being careful about taking off the brakes. The only thing that will stop COVID-19 is a vaccine or, given the figures above, "herd immunity" purchased at a substantial price in lives. Hope we can get a vaccine ramped up soon.

We didn't get herd immunity or a vaccine for either HIV/AIDS, SARS, or MERS, nor did we institute any kind of lockdowns for them, and yet none of them are considered threats now, HIV/AIDS because significant preventive and protective measures were adapted.

 

[Milwaukee]

Spoke with one of my customers today and he sent me this:
“Unemployment in the state of Wisconsin is $963 a week after the $600 kick in from the fed's. That's more than I take home on a 50 hour check.”

That’s about 75k annually. Jesus what are we doing? So now you have machine operators, welders, grinders, fast food ee’s, etc all trying to get laid off on purpose. $963 take home, no tax. Up from $363, Gov Evers kicked in a $600 boost weekly. Wtf??

 

[bobongo]

When would the lock down have started? There was a story earlier this week that says they are studying cases from as early as December to see if it was already in the US at that point. Since nobody in the US was tested in December, we can't know for sure how widespread cases back then might have been. We can potentially find out using antibody tests if some of the people who were sick with mystery viruses last year did indeed have COVID-19. If the virus was already spreading as far back as December, then locking down in February wouldn't have been a 100% solution.

I am not trying to defend the President, nor anyone else. I am simply pointing out that there is so much information that is not known at this point that it is too early to assign blame. There will be plenty of time later, and once information is more complete. We should concentrate on solving issues, both health and economic instead of fighting over things that solve neither at this point.

Read the article on New Zealand. The lockdown would have started at a time comparable to theirs, which was before a single death. Had we done so, and had we done it right, we would be slowly back to opening up now with some reason to hope that we are not opening too soon. And why am I "fighting over things that solve neither" and not people who are touting the Swedish response? All I did was point out that the Swedish response was not optimal, in my opinion (although it is far more reasonable than the half measures we adopted, neither here nor there).

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

https://twitter.com/BioscienceAytu

It is still there...

I am not sure how the videos are still there, but I just saw an interview on CNN of the Youtube CEO by Brian Stelter, in which she said that they would remove any medically unsubstantiated information that was not in accord with the "rulings" of WHO. So who at Youtube or Twitter or anybody at Google has the credentials to decide what is substantiated? And does she not realize that WHO provided false information early on about the spread of the virus to humans and the need for face masks? Sounds to me like anything from WHO should be removed because of non-medical substantiation.

 

[RonJohn]

(although it is far more reasonable than the half measures we adopted, neither here nor there).

Very productive statement. Really looking forward and attempting to solve problems.

I have called out people who try to say that we have done everything we could have. I have called out people who tout "miracle" cures based on extremely limited information. My skepticism hasn't been isolated to you or to any political allegiance. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that everyone should live by themselves in a cave. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that we should lift all restrictions and everybody act like nothing actually is happening. However, that is the argument that is going on. Your arguments aren't intended to find ways to move forward, they are intended to fight against those on the "other side". People who tout "miracle" cures aren't intending to find ways to move forward, they are intended to get at and fight against you and "your side". I don't think you guys even realize that you are doing it.

EDIT: The report earlier this week, I believe in the NYT, said that there are investigations into deaths as far back as December/Early January to see if they were COVID-19. Are you suggesting that we should have gone into lockdown in December? As I said in the earlier post, we won't know enough to accurately assign blame until much later. I highly suspect that there isn't any one person or group responsible for everything that could have been done better. I also highly suspect that when there is enough information that all "sides" will look for and express everything that the "other side" did wrong while ignoring everything that "their side" did wrong. It will all be for politics and not for understanding and getting better.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Very productive statement. Really looking forward and attempting to solve problems.

I have called out people who try to say that we have done everything we could have. I have called out people who tout "miracle" cures based on extremely limited information. My skepticism hasn't been isolated to you or to any political allegiance. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that everyone should live by themselves in a cave. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that we should lift all restrictions and everybody act like nothing actually is happening. However, that is the argument that is going on. Your arguments aren't intended to find ways to move forward, they are intended to fight against those on the "other side". People who tout "miracle" cures aren't intending to find ways to move forward, they are intended to get at and fight against you and "your side". I don't think you guys even realize that you are doing it.

EDIT: The report earlier this week, I believe in the NYT, said that there are investigations into deaths as far back as December/Early January to see if they were COVID-19. Are you suggesting that we should have gone into lockdown in December? As I said in the earlier post, we won't know enough to accurately assign blame until much later. I highly suspect that there isn't any one person or group responsible for everything that could have been done better. I also highly suspect that when there is enough information that all "sides" will look for and express everything that the "other side" did wrong while ignoring everything that "their side" did wrong. It will all be for politics and not for understanding and getting better.

Promoting "miracle cures" is not limited to the sources and webites you at least imply they are limited to. On the CBS evening news tonight, they presented a report that scientists in England have developed a Copid vaccine, now being tested, that should be available by August. REALLY? That would be a world-record for testing a vaccine. And yet it was on CBS, so I guess it must be true, right? HA !!!

 

[RonJohn]

Promoting "miracle cures" is not limited to the sources and webites you at least imply they are limited to. On the CBS evening news tonight, they presented a report that scientists in England have developed a Copid vaccine, now being tested, that should be available by August. REALLY? That would be a world-record for testing a vaccine. And yet it was on CBS, so I guess it must be true, right? HA !!!

My general point is that misinformation and misinterpretation are rampant.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

My general point is that misinformation and misinterpretation are rampant.

But according to many on the left Fox News is the only one guilty of that. Last night, although I don't remember exactly what was said, Tucker Carlson made some comments about the death rate due to Copid-19 in this country, and California representative Ted Lieu called him out on it, saying that he was "ignoring science", and saying that the current case fatality rate in the US is over 5.6%. Tonight, Carlson called out Lieu for ignoring science, perhaps willfully, and reported actual statistic, which say that nowhere where widespread testing is available is the death rate even higher than 1%, with the death rate in Denmark being 0.8%, Scotland 0.04%, The Netherlands 0.8%, Chelsea, Mass 0.3%, Los Angeles 0.1%. Ted Lieu, as expected, refused to appear on Carlson's show to discuss it. The Hill yesterday reported a death rate in Connecticut is now 7.6%, a death rate even higher than that of Yellow Fever, a disease that killed 100s of millions of people around the world over the years. So Tucker Carlson "ignores science", and the numbers provided by Ted Lieu and The Hill are scientific numbers? Yeah, right !!!

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Read the article on New Zealand. The lockdown would have started at a time comparable to theirs, which was before a single death. Had we done so, and had we done it right, we would be slowly back to opening up now with some reason to hope that we are not opening too soon. And why am I "fighting over things that solve neither" and not people who are touting the Swedish response? All I did was point out that the Swedish response was not optimal, in my opinion (although it is far more reasonable than the half measures we adopted, neither here nor there).

From what I have heard, NZ also CLOSED THEIR BORDERS, something that was very popular with the people as a whole, but not popular at all with the NZ globalists. Trump has tried to close the borders, and he is constantly barraged with cries of racism and xenophobia from the left, when that is obviously a very important factor, as NZ has proven, in controlling spread of the virus.

 

[RonJohn]

But according to many on the left Fox News is the only one guilty of that. Last night, although I don't remember exactly what was said, Tucker Carlson made some comments about the death rate due to Copid-19 in this country, and California representative Ted Lieu called him out on it, saying that he was "ignoring science", and saying that the current case fatality rate in the US is over 5.6%. Tonight, Carlson called out Lieu for ignoring science, perhaps willfully, and reported actual statistic, which say that nowhere where widespread testing is available is the death rate even higher than 1%, with the death rate in Denmark being 0.8%, Scotland 0.04%, The Netherlands 0.8%, Chelsea, Mass 0.3%, Los Angeles 0.1%. Ted Lieu, as expected, refused to appear on Carlson's show to discuss it. The Hill yesterday reported a death rate in Connecticut is now 7.6%, a death rate even higher than that of Yellow Fever, a disease that killed 100s of millions of people around the world over the years. So Tucker Carlson "ignores science", and the numbers provided by Ted Lieu and The Hill are scientific numbers? Yeah, right !!!

One side says "this", the other side says "that", is exactly what I am complaining about. Not taking sides, just pointing out that the argument over who can win the argument is more important that whether any of the information is actually correct. "Oh listen to what a stupid thing this person on the other side said." At this point, nobody actually knows and all sides are arguing over nothing other than animosity. It leaves very little room for discussion about things like what should actually open or even should have been opened long ago. One "side" says absolutely nothing should open, while the other "side" marches with AR-15s in close proximity to each other. I don't believe that either of those "sides" represents the feelings of the majority of people, but you don't see people who aren't at the extreme. It bleeds into this forum. People look to win the forum argument, not to find or discuss actual information or ideas.

 

[RonJohn]

Spoke with one of my customers today and he sent me this:
“Unemployment in the state of Wisconsin is $963 a week after the $600 kick in from the fed's. That's more than I take home on a 50 hour check.”

That’s about 75k annually. Jesus what are we doing? So now you have machine operators, welders, grinders, fast food ee’s, etc all trying to get laid off on purpose. $963 take home, no tax. Up from $363, Gov Evers kicked in a $600 boost weekly. Wtf??

A high school kid who works part time at a bicycle store would get less than $100 in unemployment, but would also get the $600 federal boost. They could go from $130 a week working to $730 a week on unemployment. You have to balance schedule, cost, and quality. The stimulus package was necessarily done quickly, but cost and quality suffered greatly.

EDIT: It wouldn't be $730, it would only be $652.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

One side says "this", the other side says "that", is exactly what I am complaining about. Not taking sides, just pointing out that the argument over who can win the argument is more important that whether any of the information is actually correct. "Oh listen to what a stupid thing this person on the other side said." At this point, nobody actually knows and all sides are arguing over nothing other than animosity. It leaves very little room for discussion about things like what should actually open or even should have been opened long ago. One "side" says absolutely nothing should open, while the other "side" marches with AR-15s in close proximity to each other. I don't believe that either of those "sides" represents the feelings of the majority of people, but you don't see people who aren't at the extreme. It bleeds into this forum. People look to win the forum argument, not to find or discuss actual information or ideas.

When one side presents provably false information that contradicts what the other side said, then there is a clear winner to the argument. And when a representative of the other side, or the source for the provably false claims REFUSES to be interviewed, then that tells you not just how little we know about the disease, but how unwilling some are even to learn about it.

 

[bobongo]

Very productive statement. Really looking forward and attempting to solve problems.

I have called out people who try to say that we have done everything we could have. I have called out people who tout "miracle" cures based on extremely limited information. My skepticism hasn't been isolated to you or to any political allegiance. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that everyone should live by themselves in a cave. I don't think there are many people who actually believe that we should lift all restrictions and everybody act like nothing actually is happening. However, that is the argument that is going on. Your arguments aren't intended to find ways to move forward, they are intended to fight against those on the "other side". People who tout "miracle" cures aren't intending to find ways to move forward, they are intended to get at and fight against you and "your side". I don't think you guys even realize that you are doing it.

EDIT: The report earlier this week, I believe in the NYT, said that there are investigations into deaths as far back as December/Early January to see if they were COVID-19. Are you suggesting that we should have gone into lockdown in December? As I said in the earlier post, we won't know enough to accurately assign blame until much later. I highly suspect that there isn't any one person or group responsible for everything that could have been done better. I also highly suspect that when there is enough information that all "sides" will look for and express everything that the "other side" did wrong while ignoring everything that "their side" did wrong. It will all be for politics and not for understanding and getting better.

The whole point is that we sort, kind of, shut down for the purpose of getting a handle on it so that we could open back up again. But we never got a handle on it because the shutdown was piecemeal and chaotic. We are opening, ready or not. We need to go back and try again, and this time do it right. You don't like it, I don't like it, nobody likes it. But like it or not it is the only way. Opening now is to engage in wishful thinking that it will just disappear, apropos of nothing. Pretending that this disaster of a response will work is pure folly.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The whole point is that we sort, kind of, shut down for the purpose of getting a handle on it so that we could open back up again. But we never got a handle on it because the shutdown was piecemeal and chaotic. We are opening, ready or not. We need to go back and try again, and this time do it right. You don't like it, I don't like it, nobody likes it. But like it or not it is the only way. Opening now is to engage in wishful thinking that it will just disappear, apropos of nothing. Pretending that this disaster of a response will work is pure folly.

Are you willing to completely close all the borders like NZ apparently did?

 

[Milwaukee]

A high school kid who works part time at a bicycle store would get less than $100 in unemployment, but would also get the $600 federal boost. They could go from $130 a week working to $730 a week on unemployment. You have to balance schedule, cost, and quality. The stimulus package was necessarily done quickly, but cost and quality suffered greatly.

EDIT: It wouldn't be $730, it would only be $652.

lol it’s ridiculous.

 

[bobongo]

Are you willing to completely close all the borders like NZ apparently did?

Under the present circumstances of this virus, yes. And I have never said otherwise. But that is only one tiny part of what needs to be done.

 

[RonJohn]

The whole point is that we sort, kind of, shut down for the purpose of getting a handle on it so that we could open back up again. But we never got a handle on it because the shutdown was piecemeal and chaotic. We are opening, ready or not. We need to go back and try again, and this time do it right. You don't like it, I don't like it, nobody likes it. But like it or not it is the only way. Opening now is to engage in wishful thinking that it will just disappear, apropos of nothing. Pretending that this disaster of a response will work is pure folly.

So do you believe that South Carolina should have the exact same restrictions as downtown Chicago? Should farmers in the middle of Nebraska stay locked in their bedrooms like people in studio apartments in NYC? Things have been somewhat chaotic, but federalism works pretty well when you have situations in different areas that are completely different.

Going back to the way things were isn't appropriate. However, why should self-entry storage facilities be "locked down". Why should someone be prevented from walking on the beach by themselves? Sure we don't want people dancing in large mosh pits, and we don't want Spring Break on the beach, but there are things that are prohibited in some areas that have extremely little to absolutely no chance of spreading infection. What we need are non-partisan, non-ideological, and rational discussions about what to do.