Coronavirus Thread

[armeck]

I'm afraid that my area (Georgia Coastal Heath Department) is about to blow up, same as what happened over in Albany. A notice went out yesterday to the residents of Long, Liberty, and Wayne counties that a symptomatic person went to church services in Midway April 5th & 8th,, funeral in Jesup on the 9th, and to post-funeral event at a private home in Midway. It seems the man who died had several adult children from the Atlanta area so my assumption is one was already sick but chose to come see their family before the man died. The man had recently "found his way to God", possibly explaining the church exposure.

Reading the obituary indicates the man had several siblings plus a large extended family. The service was supposed to be limited to immediate family and close co-workers (?). Interment was to be a private affair where someone could pay their respects later, BUT visitation and services would be held at the funeral home in Jesup from 11-1 on April 9th.

The scary part is it all starts around April 5th but the Coastal Health Department doesn't send out official warning until the 15th. I'm not blaming the health department for delaying notification, just acknowledging slow incubation period along with contract tracing means multiple exposures brings on hot spots. All because someone made the concience decision to not stay at home.

It only takes one infected person to wreak havoc, this is a perfect case in point and good reason to continue the social distancing guidelines.

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

NY is leveling off and will hopefully start to decline soon, but other areas (like GA) are just starting to skyrocket and will do so for at least the next couple of weeks.

Its hard for me to look at this website https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report and understand how you come to that conclusion. Serious curiosity, am I interpreting the data on this page incorrectly? Are the graphs misleading? Is the testing so bad in GA that its out of control and we just don't know about it? I saw somewhere that drive-thru testing was now available to anyone showing symptoms.

Thanks!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Its hard for me to look at this website https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report and understand how you come to that conclusion. Serious curiosity, am I interpreting the data on this page incorrectly? Are the graphs misleading? Is the testing so bad in GA that its out of control and we just don't know about it? I saw somewhere that drive-thru testing was now available to anyone showing symptoms.

Thanks!

I continue to be totally confused. New cases in Georgia continues to decline significantly. Same where I am - they are down 75%. But total cases nationwide dropped only about 10-15% off their highs and now have gone back up, remaining near their peak. I just don't understand how that's even physically possible given we've been shut down for a month. That implies significant major hotspots.

 

[MWBATL]

I continue to be totally confused. New cases in Georgia continues to decline significantly. Same where I am - they are down 75%. But total cases nationwide dropped only about 10-15% off their highs and now have gone back up, remaining near their peak. I just don't understand how that's even physically possible given we've been shut down for a month. That implies significant major hotspots.

Or does it just mean differences in testing quantities and methodologies? I know here in the Atlanta area they are now relaxing the guidelines of who can be tested. For so long, it was ONLY if you had been in contact with someone who tested positive, and now they have expanded it to allow for referrals from a private physician (like your GP).

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

Or does it just mean differences in testing quantities and methodologies? I know here in the Atlanta area they are now relaxing the guidelines of who can be tested. For so long, it was ONLY if you had been in contact with someone who tested positive, and now they have expanded it to allow for referrals from a private physician (like your GP).

Maybe this is why Red believes we’ll see numbers increase dramatically. Curious how our test/100k residents stacks up against the states with the largest outbreaks.

 

[RonJohn]

It’s mind boggling to me how we can be getting this level of transmission during a shut down.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Go about 2/3 of the way down that page to a chart titled: COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset. There you can see a definite change about the last week in March. That data is only good until about April 4, because what has happened in the last 10 days is still unknown.

 

[Milwaukee]

Is anyone else’s Costco taking advantage of the China Virus with zero food items on sale from 4/15 to 5/15? All sale items are non food items; they’re taking advantage of grocery sales being up across the nation 35%. Seems a little crooked.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

followed Mods and moved this one myself to here: https://gtswarm.com/threads/the-politics-of-covid-19.21397/page-6#post-710204

 

[Deleted member 2897]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Go about 2/3 of the way down that page to a chart titled: COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset. There you can see a definite change about the last week in March. That data is only good until about April 4, because what has happened in the last 10 days is still unknown.

I know, that's what has me absolutely baffled. Its great that we peaked and went linear instead of exponential, but I still can't wrap my head around how we can have the same number of daily cases a month after the shutdown. Also, that chart is incorrect - we've been at 25,000 - 30,000+ cases per day for 2-3 weeks. That chart from the CDC is off by a factor of 2. I tried to look for fine print to explain what data they're using and I couldn't find any. But that chart isn't even close to being accurate. The one above it shows the accurate total count...and that linear trend is confounding. If you look at sites like https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 to see the true daily case total, its twice the quantity of that lower CDC chart and there is no tail.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Video of Round 1 of the USA versus Coronavirus:

 

[RamblinRed]

Maybe this is why Red believes we’ll see numbers increase dramatically. Curious how our test/100k residents stacks up against the states with the largest outbreaks.

The last time I saw that number (which was about a week ago) GA had the 4th lowest testing rate per capita in the country ahead of only KS, VA, TX. Per Capita testing in GA is 1/4 that of testing in NY, LA, and RI the 3 states with the highest per capita testing.
Your numbers will not look like they are going up if you are not testing enough. Also testing numbers have declined nationally this week rather than increased which is a really negative sign.

The models being used suggest peak in GA will not occur until the beginning of May. I know from talking to the ICU nurse in our cul-de-sac that the hospitals in Atlanta don't believe we are at peak utilization yet, they are pretty nervous about the next couple of weeks. They are seeing hospitalizations go up, not down. They have been running basically full in their ICU ward since early March. They don't expect that to recede until sometime in June (and that is only if we stay primarily sheltered) due partially to how long people spend in the hospital. The avg stay for someone with COVID19 who requires an ICU bed or a ventilator is 20 days. For those that don't require that level of care the avg hospitalization is 7-8 days. As a comparison, the avg hospitalization for the flu is 4-5 days (and they require ICU or ventilators at much lower rates).

One other note that addresses something bwelbo mentions. If you look at the IHME model (which is the only one that is being made publicly available right now), an article I read with epidimeologists believe that that model seriously underestimates the tail of what happens (basically they believe it predicts a decline in numbers much more quickly than they are seeing in reality). They feel it is relying on some assumptions for this virus based on past viruses that aren't holding so far. They believe the tail (decline) is going to take much longer than the ramp up. They do not expect it to be in serious decline in May - they believe it will be at least June before we see any significant drop. This is based on what they are seeing in this country along with the trends in Italy, Spain, France and the UK.

The biggest issue is the lack of testing. We are not seeing things until the hotspots get out of control (and right now so much media focus is on NYC that other hotspots are barely being talked about).
My understanding right now is the hope is to largely to keep the cases and deaths level for the next 2-3 weeks and then hopefully start to see a slow decline in May and finally really get our hands around it in June.

Testing in this country, even within states, is highly disseparate with only a few areas (mainly around NYC) performing enough testing.
Based on results from other countries, if you want to get an idea of how much testing needs to be done, it looks like the positive result rate that gets you to the point where you have your arms around the virus and can contain it is positive test rate of 7%. The US has been testing consistently in the 20-25% positive rate for weeks. So we likely need to at least triple the testing we are doing before we are going to get really good useful data that can be used to knock this thing down.

My belief based on analyzing what numbers we have is that in GA in particular and the US as a whole we are significantly undercounting number of cases and also likely number of deaths.

This virus is the first one since 1918 to combine three major factors needed for a huge breakout.
First, it has to have a certain threshhold of mortality rate (this is what makes it more dangerous than the flu or swine flu)
Second, it has to have a high transmission rate (this is what makes it more dangerous than SARS, MERS or Ebola)
Third, it has a really long incubation phase (this along with its ability to transmit without symptoms makes it harder to see coming until it is too late)
Those 3 things make this the most dangerous infectious disease since the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
It's not as transmittable as measles so that shows where we can get eventually if we can find an effective vaccine.

The transmission of this thing is a b*tch. Back in early March they traced 71 cases to one person in Westchester Co. All it takes is literally one person in a group of people to have it and transmit it and all of a sudden in 2-3 weeks you have a hotspot. Albany and Cartersville are examples of that. The counties around Albany have a higher per capita case rate and death rate than NYC

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, this is a really good article on actions that 4 countries that have done a good job of controlling the outbreaks in their country and what they did. The bad news is we are basically too late on most of this, the one we can still do is to test the crap out of this once we do get to a point of relaxing mitigation measures.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/world/coronavirus-response-lessons-learned-intl/index.html
This was written by individuals based in London so it has a European focus but it applies everywhere. It focuses on Taiwan, Iceland, South Korea, and Germany (where there are alot of cases but a small death toll per capita - though that might be changing).

The biggest takeaways are this
1. You have to be aggressive before it gets bad (unfortunately we are way too late for that). You have to have a plan and implement it before your cases skyrocket.
2. You have to test like madmen. Test and trace.
3. You have to quarantine (not just self quaratine, we are talking about monitoring) anyone who tests positive. You must quarantine people who are traveling.
4. When you do start to ease up on restrictions you have to test even more.

FWIW, the article has 12 lessons.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Also testing numbers have declined nationally this week rather than increased which is a really negative sign.

The transmission of this thing is a b*tch.

I cut out a few comments of yours to reply to. Think about that, our net new cases nationally is actually trending back up a bit...certainly holding pat depending on the timeframe you look at, despite testing volume dropping a bit. That's a double negative. Yes, it is ridiculously contagious.

And on another side remark, I wouldn't highlight those 4 countries via that chart if I were that author. It doesn't correct for population. Iceland for example, if you correct for population, lands right on our line. Its also an island in the middle of an ocean, which should give them added advantages. Germany corrected for population would actually be worse than us. South Korea has an Orweilian police state right now. Much of Europe if you correct for population is significantly worse off than we are on deaths.

 

[RamblinRed]

Talking about age and why so many are still prepared to wait this out.
Here are the COVID19 death rates by age range based on 2 recent studies.
80+ - 14.8%
70-79 - 8%
60-69 - 3.6%
50-59 - 1.3%
40-49 - 0.4%
30-39 - 0.2%
20-29 - 0.2%
< 20 - 0.1%

Also, as an FYI, here is data from NYC of the ages of people of who died from COVID19
0-17 - 0.04%
18-44 - 4.5%
45-64 - 23.1%
65-74 - 24.6%
75+ - 47.7%

Roughly 2/3 had underlying health conditions, but the US is also the most unhealthy nation of the Western countries so that is an issue in every age range.

I'm in that 50-59 group as is my wife. My wife had surgery last year for breast cancer so that puts her in a higher risk category. Even if the rate for someone healthy in my age group is say 0.5%, that's 1 out of every 200. That's not a death odds I am thrilled about. More importantly, when it comes to mortality rates there is lots of research that shows people are not rational in their decision making when it comes to death.

 

[GT_EE78]

We set a new single day fatality record today. Sad as well.

it may no longer be an apples to apples comparison. NY added 3700 who were never tested which is consistent with CDC saying:
>(this explains the two day jump)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced this week that it would begin including "probable" cases of the coronavirus in its count of cases in the U.S.
Citing a statement by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists urging it to do so, the CDC said in a statement on its website that the agency's totals as of Tuesday would reflect "both confirmed and probable cases and deaths."
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...coronavirus-deaths-now-included-in-cdc-totals

 

[Deleted member 2897]

it may no longer be an apples to apples comparison. NY added 3700 who were never tested which is consistent with CDC saying:
>(this explains the two day jump)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced this week that it would begin including "probable" cases of the coronavirus in its count of cases in the U.S.
Citing a statement by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists urging it to do so, the CDC said in a statement on its website that the agency's totals as of Tuesday would reflect "both confirmed and probable cases and deaths."
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...coronavirus-deaths-now-included-in-cdc-totals

The new record each of the last 2 days was independent of that accounting-type change. Those big totals were interspersed into numbers from history in the past and not added into yesterday's (or the day before's) numbers.

 

[takethepoints]

Protesting and fighting for our God-given right to assemble is not "meaningless shenanigans". The government has overstepped greatly in all this and needs to be put in check. I say, Bravo, to their efforts.

Read the First Amendment. You have a right to peacefully assemble. What constitutes peaceful assembly is a decision made by governments themselves. You can take them to court - and, no doubt, someone will - but you can't assemble in a way that disturbs the peace. The government in Mississippi decided to ban all gatherings of <your favorite limit here> people and that such things as drive-in church services had the potential to do just that. There's nothing unconstitutional about this. As a federal district judge will tell a plaintiff one day soon.

 

[takethepoints]

Is anyone else’s Costco taking advantage of the China Virus with zero food items on sale from 4/15 to 5/15? All sale items are non food items; they’re taking advantage of grocery sales being up across the nation 35%. Seems a little crooked.

Your lack of faith in free enterprise is shocking.

 

[Techster]

Here's an interesting scenario in terms of the affects of the Covid-19 virus if social distancing and shelter in place policies weren't implemented.

https://www.georgia-demographics.com/counties_by_population

In GA, the three counties with the most reported infection cases are Fulton, Dekalb, and Dougherty. Fulton (1+ million) and Dekalb (740,00+)rank 1st and 4th, respectively, in terms of population size. Dougherty? 27th with 90,000+ residents.

Covid-19 cases:

Fulton:
Population - 1,021,902
Infection Cases - 1,844
Deaths - 62

Dekalb:
Poplution - 743,187
Infection Cases - 1,191
Deaths - 15

Dougherty:
Poplution - 91,049
Infection Cases - 1,308
Deaths - 83 (EDIT)

If you've been to Dougherty, you know it's not anywhere near as dense as Fulton or Dekalb. Albany is the "big city" in that county. Their infection rate is 1.4% (2nd highest in the US currently).

Now extrapolate the infection rate of Dougherty to Fulton and Dekalb. Fulton would have 14,306 cases, and Dekalb would have 10,404 cases. Remember, the density of Fulton and Dekalb is far more than Dougherty.

Doing some tracing, the two events that triggered the large outbreak were a funeral and court case that called for jury duty:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html
https://www.law.com/dailyreportonli...read-through-the-dougherty-county-courthouse/

Something to also keep in mind about the numbers above: The infection numbers are for today, AFTER the shelter in place and social distancing orders were put into place and the events that spread the virus in Dougherty county happened a month ago.

So why is this of any concern. Resources (it was always about resources). More specifically, hospital beds:

https://www.ahd.com/states/hospital_GA.html

According to that survey, the state of GA has 22,000+ staffed hospital beds. If you model the Covid 19 after the US seasonal flu rate, and extrapolate it using just Fulton County numbers it becomes quite scary:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

US Total Population: 328+ Million
2018-2019 Flu cases: 35.5+ Million
Flu Rate: 10.82%

Fulton County Extrapolated Cases using 2018-2019 Flu Rate: 110,569

Furthermore, something to keep in mind:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

It's estimated that around 40% of the US population receives the seasonal flu vaccine every year. There is currently NO vaccine for the Covid 19. The Covid 19 virus has proven to be far more infectious than the seasonal flu.

So if you think about the impact, and not even in terms of death, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that this virus can quickly overwhelm hospitals, and in turn, quickly shutdown parts of everyday society even without our Shelter in Place directives. Remember, during this time, people are still getting other illnesses or getting hospilized for current illnesses (Cancer, strokes, heart attacks, etc.) or accidents so they will also take up beds and time from nurses and doctors.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Is anyone else’s Costco taking advantage of the China Virus with zero food items on sale from 4/15 to 5/15? All sale items are non food items; they’re taking advantage of grocery sales being up across the nation 35%. Seems a little crooked.

These businesses have been completely disrupted. Our Costco, for example, only allows a certain number of shoppers at a time. All these grocery stores' supply chains are creaking and their labor costs have increased substantially. All the personal shoppers, drive throughs, and deliveries are not cheap. I don't think they can really cover their costs with just a few dollar delivery charge.