Coronavirus Thread

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GCdaJuiceMan said:
My wife refuses to shave my head. I don’t think she understands the alternative of me shaving my own head.
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If I were a hair cutting person, I'd have set up a business in Facebook targeting ads to all the neighborhood pages and offering drive in service. Both parties wear a face mask, etc. You're not violating the stay at home or work order because you're at home. They're not violating the order because they left home to work. They get money, you stop looking like Tom Hanks in Cast Away. Win Win.
 

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bwelbo said:
If I were a hair cutting person, I'd have set up a business in Facebook targeting ads to all the neighborhood pages and offering drive in service. Both parties wear a face mask, etc. You're not violating the stay at home or work order because you're at home. They're not violating the order because they left home to work. They get money, you stop looking like Tom Hanks in Cast Away. Win Win.
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Or you could just go to the nets and find out how to trim your beard yourself. That's what I did and it worked. Not for a real trim - you need another eye for that - but for getting rid of the strays, it's fine.
 

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WreckinGT said:
So apparently there was a big anti stay at home protest in Michigan today designed to grid lock the city near the capitol. This also blocked traffic from ambulances going to the hospital.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...wn-protestors-swarm-michigan-capitol-n1184426

Im not sure what positive outcome anyone was hoping for here.
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Good story, I didn’t read about any ambulances being blocked. It’s in the constitution that we have a right to freely assemble. 1,000 people is a tiny fraction of what normal daily traffic looks like there. (Half a million people live on that area alone). This obnoxious “people touched gas station handles!” nonsense is too much. I mean the Governor did state that gathering to protest her orders was lawful.
 
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WreckinGT

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bwelbo said:
Good story, I didn’t read about any ambulances being blocked. It’s in the constitution that we have a right to freely assemble. 1,000 people is a tiny fraction of what normal daily traffic looks like there. (Half a million people live on that area alone). This obnoxious “people touched gas station handles!” nonsense is too much. I mean the Governor did state that gathering to protest her orders was lawful.
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There is a hospital a mile away from the capitol.
 

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Sadly, yesterday was another up day in the US for new cases, and looks to be heading that way again. It’s totally confounding to me. We’re at 25,000 cases today and still have quite a few hours left, especially on the west coast.
 

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, yesterday was another up day in the US for new cases, and looks to be heading that way again. It’s totally confounding to me. We’re at 25,000 cases today and still have quite a few hours left, especially on the west coast.
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While I certainly don’t like that cases aren’t trending down, I’m more interested in hospitalization rate and case fatality rate.
 

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684Bee said:
While I certainly don’t like that cases aren’t trending down, I’m more interested in hospitalization rate and case fatality rate.
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We set a new single day fatality record today. Sad as well.
 

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, yesterday was another up day in the US for new cases, and looks to be heading that way again. It’s totally confounding to me. We’re at 25,000 cases today and still have quite a few hours left, especially on the west coast.
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What's most disappointing about this is not the number of new positive cases, its that compared to last week testing is down 30% and the number of cases is still increasing.
simply put, we don't really have this under control on a national level yet.

We still have no plan on a Federal level to get through this which is going to negatively impact how quickly we can move forward.
 

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RamblinRed said:
What's most disappointing about this is not the number of new positive cases, its that compared to last week testing is down 30% and the number of cases is still increasing.
simply put, we don't really have this under control on a national level yet.

We still have no plan on a Federal level to get through this which is going to negatively impact how quickly we can move forward.
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It’s mind boggling to me how we can be getting this level of transmission during a shut down.
 

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bwelbo said:
It’s mind boggling to me how we can be getting this level of transmission during a shut down.
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Coronavirus is a crazy contagious virus. I saw a new study last week that suggested an R0 of 5.7. I can't imagine it is truly that high, but even something in the mid to high twos is going to be really difficult to control once it is spreading.

We still are basically blind in this country because we don't have the testing necessary yet to get in front of it at all. Until we do, it is unlikely we can bring it down much unless we go to a much stricter form of mitigation. The mitigation measures we are employing are generally among the most lax of the countries with big outbreaks. We aren't requiring people to stay in their homes, fining or imprisoning those who do not. We still have a decent amount of people going into workplaces. If you look at the Google mobility reports for US vs most European countries, our reduction in movement isn't nearly as much. As American's we tend to see what we are doing as a huge change (and it is), but having conversed with a number of European's online and comparing measures, they feel Americans aren't even close to the shelter in place restrictions they have in some Euro countries.

At the end of the day we have to get the testing working, until then nothing in terms of numbers is going to change all that much. Apparently on the call President Trump had with some of the business executives today, their biggest message to him was until we had robust testing and tracing, they were not going to be able to re-open much of anything.

Based on results from other countries until we are testing at a level where the positive cases are under 10% and preferrably in the 6-7% positive range, we aren't testing enough to control the virus without extreme mitigation. US has consistently been testing between a 20-25% positive rate for weeks. That level of positive suggests we haven't moved out far enough from just testing those who are already showing symptoms. The Morgan Stanley timeline document suggested we need to be testing 500K/wk by the end of April and 1M/wk by the end of May with widespread antibody testing available by early June in order for a first wave of workers to return sometime in June.

The good news is at least we aren't rising at an exponential rate anymore, but we may still be weeks on a National level before there is any significant decline. NY is leveling off and will hopefully start to decline soon, but other areas (like GA) are just starting to skyrocket and will do so for at least the next couple of weeks. The goal for the next couple of weeks is to keep the numbers flat and then hope in May you start to see decline. Based on trends from other countries, it takes longer for the decline to happen than the rise. I've seen articles where Epidimeologists believe that the one public model we get to see, IHME, seriously underestimates the tail on this so it makes it look like it is going to fade alot faster than is likely to actually happen.
 

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RamblinRed said:
Coronavirus is a crazy contagious virus. I saw a new study last week that suggested an R0 of 5.7. I can't imagine it is truly that high, but even something in the mid to high twos is going to be really difficult to control once it is spreading.

We still are basically blind in this country because we don't have the testing necessary yet to get in front of it at all. Until we do, it is unlikely we can bring it down much unless we go to a much stricter form of mitigation. The mitigation measures we are employing are generally among the most lax of the countries with big outbreaks. We aren't requiring people to stay in their homes, fining or imprisoning those who do not. We still have a decent amount of people going into workplaces. If you look at the Google mobility reports for US vs most European countries, our reduction in movement isn't nearly as much. As American's we tend to see what we are doing as a huge change (and it is), but having conversed with a number of European's online and comparing measures, they feel Americans aren't even close to the shelter in place restrictions they have in some Euro countries.

At the end of the day we have to get the testing working, until then nothing in terms of numbers is going to change all that much. Apparently on the call President Trump had with some of the business executives today, their biggest message to him was until we had robust testing and tracing, they were not going to be able to re-open much of anything.

Based on results from other countries until we are testing at a level where the positive cases are under 10% and preferrably in the 6-7% positive range, we aren't testing enough to control the virus without extreme mitigation. US has consistently been testing between a 20-25% positive rate for weeks. That level of positive suggests we haven't moved out far enough from just testing those who are already showing symptoms. The Morgan Stanley timeline document suggested we need to be testing 500K/wk by the end of April and 1M/wk by the end of May with widespread antibody testing available by early June in order for a first wave of workers to return sometime in June.

The good news is at least we aren't rising at an exponential rate anymore, but we may still be weeks on a National level before there is any significant decline. NY is leveling off and will hopefully start to decline soon, but other areas (like GA) are just starting to skyrocket and will do so for at least the next couple of weeks. The goal for the next couple of weeks is to keep the numbers flat and then hope in May you start to see decline. Based on trends from other countries, it takes longer for the decline to happen than the rise. I've seen articles where Epidimeologists believe that the one public model we get to see, IHME, seriously underestimates the tail on this so it makes it look like it is going to fade alot faster than is likely to actually happen.
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The only way testing matters is if all 300 million of us get tested like once a week. That way we can self islolate and trace contacts. That will never happen here. IIWII.
 

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, yesterday was another up day in the US for new cases, and looks to be heading that way again. It’s totally confounding to me. We’re at 25,000 cases today and still have quite a few hours left, especially on the west coast.
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Yep, yesterday finished at 30,000 new cases. Crazy.
 

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RamblinRed said:
Coronavirus is a crazy contagious virus. I saw a new study last week that suggested an R0 of 5.7. I can't imagine it is truly that high, but even something in the mid to high twos is going to be really difficult to control once it is spreading.

We still are basically blind in this country because we don't have the testing necessary yet to get in front of it at all. Until we do, it is unlikely we can bring it down much unless we go to a much stricter form of mitigation. The mitigation measures we are employing are generally among the most lax of the countries with big outbreaks. We aren't requiring people to stay in their homes, fining or imprisoning those who do not. We still have a decent amount of people going into workplaces. If you look at the Google mobility reports for US vs most European countries, our reduction in movement isn't nearly as much. As American's we tend to see what we are doing as a huge change (and it is), but having conversed with a number of European's online and comparing measures, they feel Americans aren't even close to the shelter in place restrictions they have in some Euro countries.

At the end of the day we have to get the testing working, until then nothing in terms of numbers is going to change all that much. Apparently on the call President Trump had with some of the business executives today, their biggest message to him was until we had robust testing and tracing, they were not going to be able to re-open much of anything.

Based on results from other countries until we are testing at a level where the positive cases are under 10% and preferrably in the 6-7% positive range, we aren't testing enough to control the virus without extreme mitigation. US has consistently been testing between a 20-25% positive rate for weeks. That level of positive suggests we haven't moved out far enough from just testing those who are already showing symptoms. The Morgan Stanley timeline document suggested we need to be testing 500K/wk by the end of April and 1M/wk by the end of May with widespread antibody testing available by early June in order for a first wave of workers to return sometime in June.

The good news is at least we aren't rising at an exponential rate anymore, but we may still be weeks on a National level before there is any significant decline. NY is leveling off and will hopefully start to decline soon, but other areas (like GA) are just starting to skyrocket and will do so for at least the next couple of weeks. The goal for the next couple of weeks is to keep the numbers flat and then hope in May you start to see decline. Based on trends from other countries, it takes longer for the decline to happen than the rise. I've seen articles where Epidimeologists believe that the one public model we get to see, IHME, seriously underestimates the tail on this so it makes it look like it is going to fade alot faster than is likely to actually happen.
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With regards to testing, watch this video. My apologies to the Mods, because the title will seem political, but the content of the video is not political at all. Its a clickbait title and has nothing to do with Trump or politics. It’s Governor Cuomo saying he’s looked into the wide-scale testing issue quite a bit, and it’s going to be impossible to test everyone at a reasonable enough frequency to use that as a crutch while re-opening the economy. The entire world is trying to ramp up testing - there aren’t enough supplies, labor, and so on to test everyone at the frequency necessary. I think the correct avenue is to isolate those at risk. 99% of the workforce isn’t in the group at high risk of dying from the disease. Sure there are some at risk and they don’t know it, but they’re also at risk if picking up cancer, getting hit by a car, or being shot. We are nearing the end of the runway for living like this. 30 million out of work in just 1 month of this.

 
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I'm afraid that my area (Georgia Coastal Heath Department) is about to blow up, same as what happened over in Albany. A notice went out yesterday to the residents of Long, Liberty, and Wayne counties that a symptomatic person went to church services in Midway April 5th & 8th,, funeral in Jesup on the 9th, and to post-funeral event at a private home in Midway. It seems the man who died had several adult children from the Atlanta area so my assumption is one was already sick but chose to come see their family before the man died. The man had recently "found his way to God", possibly explaining the church exposure.

Reading the obituary indicates the man had several siblings plus a large extended family. The service was supposed to be limited to immediate family and close co-workers (?). Interment was to be a private affair where someone could pay their respects later, BUT visitation and services would be held at the funeral home in Jesup from 11-1 on April 9th.

The scary part is it all starts around April 5th but the Coastal Health Department doesn't send out official warning until the 15th. I'm not blaming the health department for delaying notification, just acknowledging slow incubation period along with contract tracing means multiple exposures brings on hot spots. All because someone made the concience decision to not stay at home.
 
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