Coronavirus Thread

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Sadly, it looks like our prediction a week ago when we were at 20-25k cases of hitting 100,000 by tomorrow will come true. We added 12k yesterday to hit 66k and so far have added another 14k today to get to 80k. Nobody's numbers anywhere are slowing. South Korea slowed theirs to about 100/day linear climb 2 weeks ago and they continue on in that trajectory. But everyone else is out of control. This is just nasty.

If we needed any further proof that China's numbers are just complete bull****, look no further. Those 50 million fewer active cell phone accounts than predicted is a sure sign of that.
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, it looks like our prediction a week ago when we were at 20-25k cases of hitting 100,000 by tomorrow will come true. We added 12k yesterday to hit 66k and so far have added another 14k today to get to 80k. Nobody's numbers anywhere are slowing. South Korea slowed theirs to about 100/day linear climb 2 weeks ago and they continue on in that trajectory. But everyone else is out of control. This is just nasty.

If we needed any further proof that China's numbers are just complete bull****, look no further. Those 50 million fewer active cell phone accounts than predicted is a sure sign of that.
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At some point, "they" (no idea who that is) need to remove China data completely.
 

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MWBATL said:
It raises the point that many of those who will die by this virus are going to die anyway within the next year.....it is not like we are talking about people dying in the prime of their lives. There *is* a difference and it is one that any rational society needs to take into its thinking....
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This is beside the point. The whole effort is to stop people from dying before their time by taking the most obvious and effective means to prevent it. By this sort of reasoning we shouldn't treat anyone for the disease; after all, we're all going to die, right? Besides, there is one Hell of a heroic statistical assumption in the article. But I'll read the actual report first. Newspapers are notorious for misreporting scientific studies. Like this:

https://xkcd.com/882/

That cartoon should be on the wall of every editorial office in the entire universe.
 

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, it looks like our prediction a week ago when we were at 20-25k cases of hitting 100,000 by tomorrow will come true. We added 12k yesterday to hit 66k and so far have added another 14k today to get to 80k. Nobody's numbers anywhere are slowing. South Korea slowed theirs to about 100/day linear climb 2 weeks ago and they continue on in that trajectory. But everyone else is out of control. This is just nasty.

If we needed any further proof that China's numbers are just complete bull****, look no further. Those 50 million fewer active cell phone accounts than predicted is a sure sign of that.
Click to expand...


The US just took the lead in the world at at 82,400 cases. We are #1
 
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MountainBuzzMan said:
The US just took the lead in the world at at 82,400 cases. We are #1
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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
I just heard that on the CBS evening news. Of course that "status" relies on believing the reports from China, and I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would believe them.
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The absolute number of cases is interesting, but not much else.

US is still way down on list of cases per capita & way down list on deaths per capita.
 
LibertyTurns

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GCdaJuiceMan said:
@LibertyTurns
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I never claimed they had a vaccine & would be astounded if they had a vaccine. Now they may have known which currently available drugs are most effective.

Still the most likely origin of Covid-19 is the Wuhan bioterror weapons lab, not a US soldier planted there releasing the virus to frame the Chinese. The most likely scenario is the virus was inadvertently leaked from the Wuhan lab, not purposefully deployed. The source is most like to have been an animal used in testing being sold at a local market then making the jump to humans, not a breach or infected worker spreading it.

The research is out there, some on here even posted claiming none of the above is even remotely possible when the articles they cited said that Wuhan-bioterror lab-animal the most likely scenario.
 
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I thought this was interesting. As people are probably watching more pandemic movies at the moment. A CDC ecologist breaks down pandemic scenes from movies:

 
Milwaukee

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Chili’s sent this out today. The majority of us will continue to dropkick this China Virus in the face. #Merica
1F95B15C-8D79-4109-BA5D-5409321FD911.jpeg
 

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bwelbo said:
Sadly, it looks like our prediction a week ago when we were at 20-25k cases of hitting 100,000 by tomorrow will come true. We added 12k yesterday to hit 66k and so far have added another 14k today to get to 80k. Nobody's numbers anywhere are slowing. South Korea slowed theirs to about 100/day linear climb 2 weeks ago and they continue on in that trajectory. But everyone else is out of control. This is just nasty.

If we needed any further proof that China's numbers are just complete bull****, look no further. Those 50 million fewer active cell phone accounts than predicted is a sure sign of that.
Click to expand...

Well, this didn’t age well. 4 hours later and we’re at 84,000+. We could hit 115,000 tomorrow. We could see some curve flattening in another few days, but a lot of areas don’t seem to be following directions. We could be sitting here at 300,000 next week - and that’s if we get some flattening and max our testing ability out. The math itself estimates much worse.
 

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takethepoints said:
This is beside the point. The whole effort is to stop people from dying before their time by taking the most obvious and effective means to prevent it. By this sort of reasoning we shouldn't treat anyone for the disease; after all, we're all going to die, right? Besides, there is one Hell of a heroic statistical assumption in the article. But I'll read the actual report first. Newspapers are notorious for misreporting scientific studies. Like this:

https://xkcd.com/882/

That cartoon should be on the wall of every editorial office in the entire universe.
Click to expand...
No, that is not the end result of the reasoning. All of this is a balancing act....balancing public health needs of a few individuals versus the economic health of the entire society. In that balancing (which is not easy and is always a fuzzy zone and tough call to make) it needs to be taken into account what part of society is being most effective.

The "obvious and effective means" to save lives can be a quite high cost for society as a whole.
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
Well, this didn’t age well. 4 hours later and we’re at 84,000+. We could hit 115,000 tomorrow. We could see some curve flattening in another few days, but a lot of areas don’t seem to be following directions. We could be sitting here at 300,000 next week - and that’s if we get some flattening and max our testing ability out. The math itself estimates much worse.
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What matters...in fact, almost the ONLY thing that matters...is the number who die. Not the number of cases.
 
LibertyTurns

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takethepoints said:
A sobering view of what it would take to "get Americans back to work". Without killing just a load more people, that is. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/returning-to-work-and-the-elderly/

It might be possible to get some of the workforce back on line within another 3 - 6 weeks, depending on how quickly the virus spreads, how many people are hospitalized and how quickly (more hospitalizations -> more stress on medical personnel and equipment -> drastic decisions on care -> more deaths). But, as Gardner points out, thinking we can go back to business as usual is a fool's paradise. Even with the stringent efforts he outlines, many - shoot, most - people will be reluctant to return to old consumption patterns. The only thing that can get the economy back on its feet for good is a vaccine. We're probably a year away from that, but maybe we'll get lucky.
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I understand many major cities are on lockdown but does anyone realize that 90% of the country is still at work? We’re all concerned that at some point you’re all going to start impacting us, but for now we’re plowing along as normal hoping you keep this crap to yourselves.
 

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MWBATL said:
What matters...in fact, almost the ONLY thing that matters...is the number who die. Not the number of cases.
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I think that is completely false. We don’t have the capacity in our hospitals for this. So all kinds of people could die who shouldn’t, and many people will be much worse off than they should have been. We are also hearing stories of possible permanent lung damage in some cases.
 
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