Coronavirus Thread

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armeck said:
I hope that Spring break was worth it!
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New Orleans after Mardi Gras having the highest growth rate in the world be like:

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MWBATL

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First of all, as a native Louisianan I can comment on my home state....

Most tourists who come to New Orleans for Mardi Gras go away with STD's, so getting Covid-19 is just another in the list of things they need to be careful of when they visit the City that Care Forgot. Only difference is the condom for cover-19 is a LOT bigger.

As far as that church is concerned, well, Louisiana has VERY different areas within its borders....southeastern Louisiana has Mardi Gras, drive-thru Daiquiri shops, and a very laissez-faire attitude left over from the French and Spanish days. Northern and some areas of western Louisiana have bible-totin', no alcohol drinking saints (or sinners) who look at life TOTALLY differently. Those folks don't recognize Jews as religious people, don't recognize Yankees as Americans, and don't recognize each other in the liquor store. We don't really claim them as kin where I come from.....what can I say?
 

takethepoints

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A sobering view of what it would take to "get Americans back to work". Without killing just a load more people, that is. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/returning-to-work-and-the-elderly/

It might be possible to get some of the workforce back on line within another 3 - 6 weeks, depending on how quickly the virus spreads, how many people are hospitalized and how quickly (more hospitalizations -> more stress on medical personnel and equipment -> drastic decisions on care -> more deaths). But, as Gardner points out, thinking we can go back to business as usual is a fool's paradise. Even with the stringent efforts he outlines, many - shoot, most - people will be reluctant to return to old consumption patterns. The only thing that can get the economy back on its feet for good is a vaccine. We're probably a year away from that, but maybe we'll get lucky.
 
flounder

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I think widespread antibody testing will be available sooner. If we can demonstrate that enough people are immune, we can get things started even without a vaccine. We need better data on how many people have been infected.
 

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I work for a small venture capital funded software company with about 100 employees. They said at a company meeting today that we have about 18 months of cash even if our revenue runs at 50% of plan. They don’t currently plan to lay anybody off. They are looking into the new law once it passes to see if they can take advantage of any money available. If they can get a $5 million grant which doesn’t have to be repaid and all they have to do is not fire anybody, that’s like a free round of funding without any equity. If that’s the way it works out, I’m thinking that the federal government or unintentionally funnel a bunch of money into well-funded start up’s.
 

MWBATL

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takethepoints said:
A sobering view of what it would take to "get Americans back to work". Without killing just a load more people, that is. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/returning-to-work-and-the-elderly/

It might be possible to get some of the workforce back on line within another 3 - 6 weeks, depending on how quickly the virus spreads, how many people are hospitalized and how quickly (more hospitalizations -> more stress on medical personnel and equipment -> drastic decisions on care -> more deaths). But, as Gardner points out, thinking we can go back to business as usual is a fool's paradise. Even with the stringent efforts he outlines, many - shoot, most - people will be reluctant to return to old consumption patterns. The only thing that can get the economy back on its feet for good is a vaccine. We're probably a year away from that, but maybe we'll get lucky.
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Meanwhile in The Times (London) comes this report, from the same gent who scared the pants off the government just 3 weeks ago:

The virus death toll could end up being “substantially lower” than 20,000, with most of the fatalities in people who would have died later this year anyway, a government adviser has said.Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist whose research precipitated tougher government measures last week, told MPs: “It [the deaths of those who would have died anyway] might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or who have underlying conditions.”

It raises the point that many of those who will die by this virus are going to die anyway within the next year.....it is not like we are talking about people dying in the prime of their lives. There *is* a difference and it is one that any rational society needs to take into its thinking....
 

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MWBATL said:
Meanwhile in The Times (London) comes this report, from the same gent who scared the pants off the government just 3 weeks ago:

The virus death toll could end up being “substantially lower” than 20,000, with most of the fatalities in people who would have died later this year anyway, a government adviser has said.Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London scientist whose research precipitated tougher government measures last week, told MPs: “It [the deaths of those who would have died anyway] might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or who have underlying conditions.”

It raises the point that many of those who will die by this virus are going to die anyway within the next year.....it is not like we are talking about people dying in the prime of their lives. There *is* a difference and it is one that any rational society needs to take into its thinking....
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That's the most UK government-run health system rationale ever: "They probably would have died this year anyway." I bet their health system actuaries are partying at the pubs every night right now.

The biggest problem is not that old people might die, although that's not good. Its the fact that tons of younger people are overwhelming the healthcare system.
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
That's the most UK government-run health system rationale ever: "They probably would have died this year anyway." I bet their health system actuaries are partying at the pubs every night right now.
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Then there's this (what would we do without experts, anyway?):
A separate team of researchers at Oxford University this week released their own model of the disease based on different but equally supportable assumptions about the virus’s transmissibility and lethality. Their analysis—which they believe fits with the course we know Covid-19 has followed to date in the U.K. and Italy—concludes at least 36% of Britons may already have contracted the disease as of last week with no or very mild symptoms.
The implication here is that the risk is MUCH smaller than other experts project.....

My take-away is....ultimately you have to make your own best decision...experts don't always reach the same conclusions (and even when it seems they do, they aren't always right). Otherwise, they wouldn't't have had the change all the signage at Glacier National Park which was erected back in 2010 and which announced that the glaciers you see up there will be gone by 2020.....oops, they're still there!
 

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takethepoints said:
A sobering view of what it would take to "get Americans back to work". Without killing just a load more people, that is. See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/returning-to-work-and-the-elderly/

It might be possible to get some of the workforce back on line within another 3 - 6 weeks, depending on how quickly the virus spreads, how many people are hospitalized and how quickly (more hospitalizations -> more stress on medical personnel and equipment -> drastic decisions on care -> more deaths). But, as Gardner points out, thinking we can go back to business as usual is a fool's paradise. Even with the stringent efforts he outlines, many - shoot, most - people will be reluctant to return to old consumption patterns. The only thing that can get the economy back on its feet for good is a vaccine. We're probably a year away from that, but maybe we'll get lucky.
Click to expand...

Yep. I'll never try to outguess the stock market, but right now is the single biggest disconnect I've ever seen in my lifetime between the behavior of the stock market and the state of the economy.
 

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MWBATL said:
Then there's this (what would we do without experts, anyway?):
A separate team of researchers at Oxford University this week released their own model of the disease based on different but equally supportable assumptions about the virus’s transmissibility and lethality. Their analysis—which they believe fits with the course we know Covid-19 has followed to date in the U.K. and Italy—concludes at least 36% of Britons may already have contracted the disease as of last week with no or very mild symptoms.
The implication here is that the risk is MUCH smaller than other experts project.....
Click to expand...

The problem is there is no way to differentiate between them, and my 36 year old cousin who is right now quarantined at home in the Leeds area of the UK. She is very sick with shortness of breath. She's right on the edge of going to the emergency room. They continue to tell her there are no tests available, but that it doesn't matter anyway. They will treat her assuming she has it. But they don't want her to infect tons of people by leaving the house to go to the hospital. 36 years old, no previous health issues.
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
The problem is there is no way to differentiate between them, and my 36 year old cousin who is right now quarantined at home in the Leeds area of the UK. She is very sick with shortness of breath. She's right on the edge of going to the emergency room. They continue to tell her there are no tests available, but that it doesn't matter anyway. They will treat her assuming she has it. But they don't want her to infect tons of people by leaving the house to go to the hospital. 36 years old, no previous health issues.
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As Stalin famously said:
A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.
 
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