Coronavirus Thread

[Techster]

It's hard to see concern, when thousands of people at a time are ignoring social distancing guidance and the majority of them not wearing masks. That's not a question of seeing what we want to see; that's seeing what is happening.

When did the youth ever listen to authority? I think you are mistaking the young demonstrators versus the health experts.

Also, and not to get political, but maybe this cause for the demonstrators goes beyond their concern for getting infected.

As I wrote earlier, I expect infections to SURGE soon. Hopefully hospitalizations don't surge with the infection rate.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So your solution is to ban expert opinion from news programs? Or maybe just to ridicule the experts on air? What are you hoping for here?

If health experts advocate social distancing and lawmakers limit maximum gatherings, but then they all endorse exceptions to it, then it shows they really don’t believe in it in the first place. It’s like Al Gote saying our planet is dying and we need to change our lifestyle, but you find out his mansion burns the electricity of 40 homes and he flies in private jets everywhere. The only logical conclusion is they can’t actually believe what they’re putting forth as science-based or else they wouldn’t ignore it.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

When did the youth ever listen to authority? I think you are mistaking the young demonstrators versus the health experts.

Also, and not to get political, but maybe this cause for the demonstrators goes beyond their concern for getting infected.

As I wrote earlier, I expect infections to SURGE soon. Hopefully hospitalizations don't surge with the infection rate.

I don’t think anybody here is discounting the legitimacy of the protests. What we’re pointing out is health experts have literally said in writing that social distancing and mass gatherings are vital and required by enforcement of law, but only for certain types of purposes for which they disagree. The virus doesn’t care why people are close together. So when experts push anti-science, it totally destroys their credibility.

 

[LibertyTurns]

You want public health experts to come out publicly and condemn black people for wanting to protest racial injustice? What exactly would that accomplish? You think tear gas and rubber bullets to the face aren’t slowing them down but concerns from public health experts will?

I didn’t realize only black people were protesting. Maybe you live in a different area of the country than me?

I want the health experts to define requirements not vacillate when they’re politically unacceptable.

I want the peaceful protests, I want real actions that deliver real results not lip service. This whole C19 health care experts puking out random BS with no underlying basis behind it has damaged their reputations significantly.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

When did the youth ever listen to authority? I think you are mistaking the young demonstrators versus the health experts.

Also, and not to get political, but maybe this cause for the demonstrators goes beyond their concern for getting infected.

As I wrote earlier, I expect infections to SURGE soon. Hopefully hospitalizations don't surge with the infection rate.

The concern should not be "getting infected", but infecting others. Regardless of the cause, other people should be protected, even if they are not interested in protecting themselves.

 

[ncjacket79]

I didn’t realize only black people were protesting. Maybe you live in a different area of the country than me?

I want the health experts to define requirements not vacillate when they’re politically unacceptable.

I want the peaceful protests, I want real actions that deliver real results not lip service. This whole C19 health care experts puking out random BS with no underlying basis behind it has damaged their reputations significantly.

Most “experts” are basically saying that social distancing is important but are recognizing in this environment that people are going to protest. The best course would probably have been to simply say that. But what do you think the outcome would have been if government had decided to enforce social distancing during this situation? You can call it hypocritical if you like but to me there is no other logical response. It would take military units in virtually every community and martial law. Your suggestion is that they should recommend that?

 

[ncjacket79]

The concern should not be "getting infected", but infecting others. Regardless of the cause, other people should be protected, even if they are not interested in protecting themselves.

I’ve had that conversation with a number of younger people. Most seem to get it but there are still those outliers who think those who are worried should just stay home.

 

[Techster]

The concern should not be "getting infected", but infecting others. Regardless of the cause, other people should be protected, even if they are not interested in protecting themselves.

I don't think anyone is arguing with you on that point. Like I said, when did the youth ever follow the rules?

We no longer have shelter in place, so they are not breaking any rules. Is it better for all those demonstrators to social distance and not form such large groups that are closely packed with respect to the virus? Every single health expert I've seen discuss this has resoundingly said they fear that the virus is spreading because of the demonstrations. No one argues that point.

The thing is, no one can stop these demonstrations, nor should they. Unfortunately, these demonstrations have the bad luck of coming at the time that the virus is still active without a vaccine.

I just think people want to fit the virus into whatever narrative that fits them, and they are using the demonstrations to whatever advantage they can get. Personally, I have ZERO doubt these demonstrations will have the curve going back up...but that is something that will have to be reckoned with.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

So we have 192,000 excess deaths compared to normal, but about 105,000 COVID-19 deaths. Deaths from other diseases like the Flu, gun deaths, etc are way down. So we have a gap of another probably 100,000+ unexplained deaths. Are those from COVID-19 but unreported? Or what are they do you think?

I see the disconnect.

We have 192,000 projected excess deaths (methodology in headers of first chart).

Currently there are only 100,000+ reported COVID deaths as the death certificate has to be filed in the appropraite State and the data brought into the database.

Just given the time it takes for death reports to get into the system, those dead people's certificates will find their way into the current data eventually. Looking at the first chart in the fifth column, see the number of death certificates which were recorded in the last week of data collection. We even had 88 added for the week ending 1 Feb 2020. My Mom's death certificate was an outlier but took about 6 months before it was recorded in Maryland.

Looking at the second chart, I have the comparison of currently reported excess deaths for the week and COVID related deaths for the week. There is getting to be better comparability on a weekly basis as our testing improves.

So no big "gap" when you look at only current numbers. But my big point is that when all the dead people are counted the number will be much higher - like 192,000 through May 23rd. But this is far too difficult a concept for the general public who just wants to believe what they want to believe.

 

[WreckinGT]

If health experts advocate social distancing and lawmakers limit maximum gatherings, but then they all endorse exceptions to it, then it shows they really don’t believe in it in the first place. It’s like Al Gote saying our planet is dying and we need to change our lifestyle, but you find out his mansion burns the electricity of 40 homes and he flies in private jets everywhere. The only logical conclusion is they can’t actually believe what they’re putting forth as science-based or else they wouldn’t ignore it.

Saying they don’t condemn it isn’t really endorsing it. They are just acknowledging the reality that these protests are more important than social distancing right now to a significant number of people.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I see the disconnect.

We have 192,000 projected excess deaths (methodology in headers of first chart).

Currently there are only 100,000+ reported COVID deaths as the death certificate has to be filed in the appropraite State and the data brought into the database.

Just given the time it takes for death reports to get into the system, those dead people's certificates will find their way into the current data eventually. Looking at the first chart in the fifth column, see the number of death certificates which were recorded in the last week of data collection. We even had 88 added for the week ending 1 Feb 2020. My Mom's death certificate was an outlier but took about 6 months before it was recorded in Maryland.

Looking at the second chart, I have the comparison of currently reported excess deaths for the week and COVID related deaths for the week. There is getting to be better comparability on a weekly basis as our testing improves.

So no big "gap" when you look at only current numbers. But my big point is that when all the dead people are counted the number will be much higher - like 192,000 through May 23rd. But this is far too difficult a concept for the general public who just wants to believe what they want to believe.

No there is a massive gap. The 105,000 COVID-19 deaths are reported deaths, not filed death certificates. The death certificate count for the disease is tens of thousands lower due to the lag in filings.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

We no longer have shelter in place, so they are not breaking any rules.

That’s not true - large gatherings are still against the law. But health experts are now on record saying (effectively) that the virus only spreads in large gatherings based on the purpose of the gathering. Which is sad. A real health expert relying on science would say they are breaking the rules and behaving dangerously with regards to virus spread. The protests are legitimate and understandable, but IIWII.

 

[684Bee]

Saying they don’t condemn it isn’t really endorsing it. They are just acknowledging the reality that these protests are more important than social distancing right now to a significant number of people.

Pre-protests, we were told anyone that went out in public in groups and/or without a mask was ignoring science. So, can we now acknowledge that people going out in mass gatherings to protest are ignoring statistics? I’m confused. Is ignoring science worse than ignoring statistics?

 

[Milwaukee]

You want public health experts to come out publicly and condemn black people for wanting to protest racial injustice? What exactly would that accomplish? You think tear gas and rubber bullets to the face aren’t slowing them down but concerns from public health experts will?

This original response was in poor taste. Wreckin is one of us, even though we don’t agree.

 

[Milwaukee]

Saying they don’t condemn it isn’t really endorsing it. They are just acknowledging the reality that these protests are more important than social distancing right now to a significant number of people.

lol. Can’t make this stuff up.

But I’ll still call you on this one Wreckin.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I’ve had that conversation with a number of younger people. Most seem to get it but there are still those outliers who think those who are worried should just stay home.

It doesn't matter whether a given person is worried or not, the FACT is that others are put in danger by the actions of those who are not worried, and that includes those who are not worried.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

No there is a massive gap. The 105,000 COVID-19 deaths are reported deaths, not filed death certificates. The death certificate count for the disease is tens of thousands lower due to the lag in filings.

How do you get a reported COVID death without a filed death certificate? Can't make this stuff up.

As of data for the weeks ended 5/30/2020, the COVID deaths in the CDC database total 91,558. The previous week ending 5/23/2020, there were 83,142 COVID deaths reported.

Next week for the week ending 6/5 at that rate of 8416 a week (=91,558-83,142), the total reported will be about 99,974. So as of two days ago, the current total reported can be expected to be in this data set to be about 100,000 which isn't far off from the current 105,000 or whatever being talked about in the press. The press is talking about filed current death certificates.

I realize it's hard to wrap our head around the reporting being so slow. But again, this reporting can't be, shouldn't be and apparently isn't being made up. Unless one has political motives for alternative facts being needed to show better or worse results.

 

[GT_EE78]

You want public health experts to come out publicly and condemn black people for wanting to protest racial injustice? What exactly would that accomplish? You think tear gas and rubber bullets to the face aren’t slowing them down but concerns from public health experts will?

Are you suggesting that that there should be different protest rules (as it relates to coronavirus) that are dependent on what one is protesting for or against?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

How do you get a reported COVID death without a filed death certificate? Can't make this stuff up.

As of data for the weeks ended 5/30/2020, the COVID deaths in the CDC database total 91,558. The previous week ending 5/23/2020, there were 83,142 COVID deaths reported.

Next week for the week ending 6/5 at that rate of 8416 a week (=91,558-83,142), the total reported will be about 99,974. So as of two days ago, the current total reported can be expected to be in this data set to be about 100,000 which isn't far off from the current 105,000 or whatever being talked about in the press. The press is talking about filed current death certificates.

I realize it's hard to wrap our head around the reporting being so slow. But again, this reporting can't be, shouldn't be and apparently isn't being made up. Unless one has political motives for alternative facts being needed to show better or worse results.

Im not saying the data is made up. 100% no, that’s not what I’m asserting. If someone does in a hospital today of COVID-19, it’s announced and included in the death count. When they say 1,000 people died today, that is not the death certificates being filed. I’m not in front of my computer, but that’s the way it’s always been. The CDCs count has never equaled the Johns Hopkins Type dash boards. Both are correct, one is just slower than the other essentially (although some people are included on the death count but it’s not on their death certificate) as they died with it and not of it.

This is a separate issue than what I originally pointed out. We’re 192,000 over average deaths, but COVID-19 deaths are 105,000. So there are either nearly 100,000 others who have died of it but aren’t recorded or a lot of people are dying of other things right now that we’re missing...or both...or the average death rate is way off as others have pointed out for their states.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Saying they don’t condemn it isn’t really endorsing it. They are just acknowledging the reality that these protests are more important than social distancing right now to a significant number of people.

That perspective is anti-science. If you are trying to stop the spread of the virus, the rules don’t change. Health experts and scientists shouldn’t be making political points. They should state unequivocally “these protests like any other mass gatherings risk dramatically increasing the spread of the disease. We are not passing judgment on whether these protests are valuable or important, as that is not our charter. We are only speaking to the science of the spread of the disease.”