Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

Not great news here. Experts told the White House yesterday that the virus can not only spread through coughing or sneezing, but just through talking (and possibly breathing) - through the spread of bioaeresols.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

His letter explains that research at a hospital in China shows the virus can be suspended in the air when doctors and nurses remove protective gear, or when floors are cleaned, or when staff move around.

Research by the University of Nebraska shows that genetic material from the virus was found in patients' rooms more than 6 feet away from the patients, according to the letter.

Fineberg said it's possible that aerosolized coronavirus droplets can hang in the air and potentially infect someone who walks by later.

He added, however, that coronavirus is not as infectious as measles or tuberculosis.

How long coronavirus lingers in the air depends on several factors, including how much virus an infected individual puts out when breathing or talking, and also on the amount of circulation in the air, he said.

"If you generate an aerosol of the virus with no circulation in a room, it's conceivable that if you walk through later, you could inhale the virus," Fineberg said. "But if you're outside, the breeze will likely disperse it."

To me this is another proof point that the CDC is largely useless. Honestly, THEY HAVE ONE JOB. How have they not known with these viruses that this type of thing is at least possible and say so? Why didn’t they at least ask our Korean and Japanese friends why they all wear masks during any even small outbreak of flu type diseases? Silly really.

 

[RamblinRed]

Incredible. I'd be curious to know the nature and origin of the threats.....even though it probably doesn't matter...there are crazy folk out there on the fringes of society on all sides...

The original article was in the Washington Post. Not surprisingly, officials won't comment much on it (they won't specify where the threats are coming from, who is making them) other than he has received death threats and that he has a security detail both at work and at home.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Around the world, tests are so hard to come by, that the data on deaths is completely unreliable, as tons of people are dying every day and never tested.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179

The UK stands out like a sore thumb - 10% mortality rate. There is no telling how many people have it and who all is dying without ever being tested to confirm it. Mortality rate could be 2% because 100,000 people have it untested. Death count could be double because of untested people. What a mess. My cousin is over there and is on day SIXTEEN feeling sick. Fever came back 2 days ago. Sigh. She’s 36 and healthy. She speaks to her doctor by phone every morning and evening to check in. “There are no tests” he says, so there’s no point to come in. He just checks to see if she needs to hit the emergency room or not.

 

[GT_EE78]

nm

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Spain has now passed Italy in number of cases.

The UK had several hundred people die yesterday. They and Germany are hot on Italy and Spain's heels to be the next war zone. Germany is closing in on 100,000 cases too. The UK continues to have an extreme test shortage, so their official numbers are way low - but the death count tells the story. They're only about 1 week behind Spain.

 

[RamblinRed]

Spain has now passed Italy in number of cases.

The UK had several hundred people die yesterday. They and Germany are hot on Italy and Spain's heels to be the next war zone. Germany is closing in on 100,000 cases too. The UK continues to have an extreme test shortage, so their official numbers are way low - but the death count tells the story. They're only about 1 week behind Spain.

And the death rates in the US right now basically split the different between Spain and Italy. That's what we are fighting to avoid.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

And the death rates in the US right now basically split the different between Spain and Italy. That's what we are fighting to avoid.

Going off reported numbers (and the caveats therein):
Italy has an 11.8% death rate.
Spain has a 9.0% death rate.
USA has a 2.3% death rate.

Total deaths on a US-population equivalent basis:
Italy: 71,500
Spain: 71,700
USA: 5,100

We are roughly 2 weeks behind Italy, so a more accurate analysis (again, given the reporting caveats) would be to compare ourselves to where they were 2 weeks ago and Spain about 1 week ago.

 

[GT_EE78]

And the death rates in the US right now basically split the different between Spain and Italy. That's what we are fighting to avoid.

Nah , thats what you get from reading fake news. deceit and lies and wrong facts.
I was about to post what bwelbo just did
since i'm not a fan of population equivalent basis, i'll add it this way
deaths/1M pop (as %)
Italy o.o2%
Spain o.o2%
USA 0.0016 %

so in approximate numbers our mortality rate is about 10x better than either of them so far
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Going off reported numbers (and the caveats therein):
Italy has an 11.8% death rate.
Spain has a 9.0% death rate.
USA has a 2.3% death rate.

Total deaths on a US-population equivalent basis:
Italy: 71,500
Spain: 71,700
USA: 5,100

We are roughly 2 weeks behind Italy, so a more accurate analysis (again, given the reporting caveats) would be to compare ourselves to where they were 2 weeks ago and Spain about 1 week ago.

Well, that didn't age well. Italy's data just updated. They had almost 1,000 deaths again yesterday, and are at 13,900 deaths, not the 13,000 I used in my calculations.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Hospitals continue to be feast or famine.

My wife just got home from a shift at hers. Her hospital is a couple hundred bed facility here in a 100,000 person town that's a part of a 1,000,000 person metro area. Does about $750m per year in revenue.

She said since all elective surgeries (their cash cow) are shut down and everything else not an emergency, there are only 20 patients in the entire hospital right now. Hospitals are hemorrhaging money right now. Lots of nurses and doctors and staff getting pay cuts, hour cuts, and laid off around the country. And in the hot spots they don't have enough resources.

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

Well, that didn't age well. Italy's data just updated. They had almost 1,000 deaths again yesterday, and are at 13,900 deaths, not the 13,000 I used in my calculations.

Curious what site you use to look at data? I've been looking at WorldOMeter

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Curious what site you use to look at data? I've been looking at WorldOMeter

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

I visit this one: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Don't know how often its updated. It used to be very regular throughout the day. I think there's just so much activity out there around the world that people are probably only sending them in blocks.

 

[GT_EE78]

I visit this one: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Don't know how often its updated. It used to be very regular throughout the day. I think there's just so much activity out there around the world that people are probably only sending them in blocks.

i never could find their updating and counting rules either but i still like their map.
worldometer also updates continuously but has a toggle button so one can go back to yesterday's stats for an apples to apples comparison
they reset their counter at 8pm est or 00GMT

 

[takethepoints]

Here's a useful short video about testing and why we can find ourselves with a lot of tests ready and still have a hard time with a) delivery and b) analysis. See:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/...ast-as-south-korea/?cid=referral_taboola_feed

So … short 538: The Koreans were ready with the infrastructure necessary and we weren't. Also, the big hold up now is that the chemicals used in the tests are in short supply. Further, the plethora of new tests being approved is probably not helping things along; the new tests also require the chemicals. And, of course, nobody is directing the flow of supplies between manufacturers.

To put this another way, we've apparently forgotten everything we learned about how to ramp up production in WW2.

 

[GT_EE78]

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, we crossed 1,000 deaths in a single day today in the US (the high points for seasonal flu are around 500 deaths in a day). The World crossed 1,000,000 confirmed cases (one month ago there was less than 90,000 confirmed cases).
This growth is the definition of an exponential function. Right now our deaths are doubling at a rate of about every 3 days. it took 1 month to go from 1 death to 1,000 in the US. It took 2 days to go from 1,000 to 2,000. It took 3 days to go from 2,000 to 4,000. We are on pace to hit 8,000 cumulative deaths in 3 days from hitting 4,000.

If you want an interesting thought experiment on exponential growth, this is a great one for a sports board
https://modernsurvivalblog.com/pandemic/mindblowing-exponential-growth-of-a-pandemic/
What's interesting is it was being used to talk about pandemics three months before COVID19 appears, though this example has existed for years. i think i actually may have heard of this or a similar example in Grad School

It’s 1pm. Imagine a normal sized football or baseball stadium. You are sitting in a seat at the very top of the stadium. You are overlooking the bowl of the whole stadium.
To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight.
The question is, if a single drop of water is added to the stadium, and then one minute later it doubles and two more drops are added, and then one minute after that it doubles again to 4 drops, and so on.. the water volume doubling in size every minute, how much time do you think you have to leave your seat and get out of the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top?
Think about it for a moment. It seems like you would have plenty of time to get out, right? Especially given that you can see it rising and could judge for yourself when to leave?
The first drop of water lands right in the middle of the field, at 1pm. Tick-Tock goes the clock…

How long before you drown?
49 minutes.

 

[FredJacket]

To put this another way, we've apparently forgotten everything we learned about how to ramp up production in WW2.

Please expound on this. But make sure you compare the first couple of months of WW2 (or something close). You may have a point... but to make my point, you totally lost me with this WW2 analogy.

 

[GT_EE78]

Washington Post has the best political reporters in the country and it isn't even close.

 

[Milwaukee]

FWIW, we crossed 1,000 deaths in a single day today in the US (the high points for seasonal flu are around 500 deaths in a day). The World crossed 1,000,000 confirmed cases (one month ago there was less than 90,000 confirmed cases).
This growth is the definition of an exponential function. Right now our deaths are doubling at a rate of about every 3 days. it took 1 month to go from 1 death to 1,000 in the US. It took 2 days to go from 1,000 to 2,000. It took 3 days to go from 2,000 to 4,000. We are on pace to hit 8,000 cumulative deaths in 3 days from hitting 4,000.

If you want an interesting thought experiment on exponential growth, this is a great one for a sports board
https://modernsurvivalblog.com/pandemic/mindblowing-exponential-growth-of-a-pandemic/
What's interesting is it was being used to talk about pandemics three months before COVID19 appears, though this example has existed for years. i think i actually may have heard of this or a similar example in Grad School

It’s 1pm. Imagine a normal sized football or baseball stadium. You are sitting in a seat at the very top of the stadium. You are overlooking the bowl of the whole stadium.
To make things more interesting, imagine the stadium is completely water-tight.
The question is, if a single drop of water is added to the stadium, and then one minute later it doubles and two more drops are added, and then one minute after that it doubles again to 4 drops, and so on.. the water volume doubling in size every minute, how much time do you think you have to leave your seat and get out of the stadium before the water reaches your seat at the very top?
Think about it for a moment. It seems like you would have plenty of time to get out, right? Especially given that you can see it rising and could judge for yourself when to leave?
The first drop of water lands right in the middle of the field, at 1pm. Tick-Tock goes the clock…

How long before you drown?
49 minutes.

The problem with this math is the numbers eventually stop. They don’t continue for infinity.
Take that into account, just a suggestion. Based on these numbers the world would come to an end, you realize that?

You and Belbo should take a Xanax and have a nice glass of wine. It’s going to be okay.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The problem with this math is the numbers eventually stop. They don’t continue for infinity.
Take that into account, just a suggestion. Based on these numbers the world would come to an end, you realize that?

You and Belbo should take a Xanax and have a nice glass of wine. It’s going to be okay.

You're trolling again, which is against the site rules. Sad.