Coronavirus Thread

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We are considered an essential supplier because of a slice of our customer base. That being said, tourism/hospitality is a big part of our business and that sector has been hard hit from Charleston down to the Florida line because of the local/state mandates. Restaurants are takeout or delivery only. Bars/nightclubs have been closed. Tour companies have been closed. Schools/colleges are closed (home schooling doesn't require toilet paper, paper towels, etc). Local businesses that are considered essential have moved to teleworking so no need for janitorial services to clean offices. Customers that consist of multiple restaurant groups have decided that they need to close all groups (why they didn't remain open for takeout or delivery is beyond me because I know they are capable of doing that). We're having a problem with daily NSF checks that we more than likely won't be able to collect. We have customers that are requesting to pay in 90 days (as opposed to 30 days) or else. On top of all this, our vendors are now pushing for payment before invoices are even due. One vendor in California (new to us) required us to wire $7000 to them before we could even place an order for N95 masks.
My gut tells me that there will be additional cuts in the next couple of weeks. Our lawyer advised to go ahead & make deep cuts now because "death by a thousand cuts is extremely bad on employee morale". Unfortunately, the owners didn't have the guts to make all cuts needed now so...

I’ve wondered if the business loans in the stimulus would even be used much, despite the fact they could be forgiven completely if employees weren’t fired. I’ve wondered if the risk of being stuck with the loan is too high - because if things don’t change soon enough, the loan would run out and you’ll be right back in the same place, facing the reduction in force but now with a huge loan hanging around your neck. Any insight into the applicability of these loans to your business?
 

jwsavhGT

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I’ve wondered if the business loans in the stimulus would even be used much, despite the fact they could be forgiven completely if employees weren’t fired. I’ve wondered if the risk of being stuck with the loan is too high - because if things don’t change soon enough, the loan would run out and you’ll be right back in the same place, facing the reduction in force but now with a huge loan hanging around your neck. Any insight into the applicability of these loans to your business?
As our goal is to remain in business and continue serving our customers we will be applying for both loans. Each loan is designed to cover specific items: one covers accounts payable, rent/lease/mortgage interest, utilities; the other covers payroll, rent, & utilities. The Pay Protection loan is forgiveable up to the extent that you retain a certain percentage of your workforce for a specific period of time.

I've already started the application for the first loan and will do the Pay Protection loan application Friday when it opens up.
 

BuzzStone

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I could not agree more with this sentiment. I strongly believe science and christianity are completely compatible. God gave us brains and the freedom to make choices. Pastors who act like these to me are no different than the James Bakkers of the world. I haven't read anything in the Bible or learned in church that says we should walk out in front of a train or take cocaine or drive a car 150mph because God will save us. That's nonsensical. These people are like snake charmers and playing with the devil.

So you believe in God and Freewill?
 

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Since you guys mentioned it, I went and looked it up. They are indeed still open for business. Very few restrictions, but they are relying on an intelligent and conscientious population to self-quarantine if they feel symptoms. I am not sure that is enough based on everything else we have been told. There is an article in today's WSJ about their different approach. Apparently they are trying the "herd immunity" approach:
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and architect of the policy, says the approach, much like the original British one, is to let the virus spread as slow as possible while sheltering the elderly and the vulnerable until much of the population becomes naturally immune or a vaccine becomes available.

One can do anything with data and numbers, as we all know, here is Sweden's tack:
It is too early to assess whether Sweden’s approach will have a benign or catastrophic outcome, but so far, the virus hasn’t spread widely there. Sweden, with 10 million inhabitants, had 4,028 confirmed infections and 146 deaths by Monday, according to a tally compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Austria, a similarly-sized European country with about 8.8 million people that is under lockdown, had 9,200 cases and 108 deaths.

The article draws no conclusions, other than saying this will be interesting to watch. They did point out that Sweden's society had a much lower level of generational interaction than, say, Italy's. (Apparently, Swedish kids don't go visit their parents very often, at all.)

I have no idea how it will turn out, but I am glad to see someone trying a different approach. For better or ill, we will all learn from it.

The latest on Sweden is they are indeed on a timeline behind everyone else, but their restrictions seem to be no different to me on that timeline. For example, all colleges and universities are closed. Gatherings have been reduced to 50 people. Social distancing has been in place for awhile. It is recommended as many people as possible work from home. I suspect since it is getting progressively worse there, just like it did everywhere else, they will continue to clamp down just like everyone else did. This is Sweden's infection chart below. By the way, they had 4,400 cases in this chart from 1 day ago. They are now over 5,000.

FoyZBdS.png
 

RamblinRed

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Good article from an American living in China (teaches AP Psychology and English). Talking about how even after the quarantine ends things do not go back to 'normal'.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opin...quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html
But if there's anything I've learned after emerging from my own two-week quarantine in China, it's that we can't simply click our ruby slippers and return to life BC -- before Covid-19.

I have now been out of quarantine for almost 40 days -- and life is far from normal.

Just as I thought "normal" was beginning to see daylight, on March 28, China closed its borders to most foreigners to avert a resurgence of Covid-19 imported from returning residents.

What will "normal" be like when it arrives? The short answer is that it will be like a roller coaster and Ferris wheel: progress will be both volatile and slow.

She also mentions that even now there are still guards posted that take your temperature. If you are 'free and clear' you get a 'green code' for your cell phone that you show as you go places. If you turn off your phone's GPS or go out of town you get a red code. She says the temperature taking and having to show the codes has become more relaxed but are still in place. Only about 1/2 the stores are open with reduced hours and most restaurants that are open are still take out only (there are a few that have been cleared to have customers eat in the restaurant at the tables that are socially distanced apart.

Also, here is an article where Dr. Fauci talks about his relationship with 5 US Presidents. The link to the podcast that it is taken from is in the article. His discussion on US Presidents begins at min 8. If you have time to listen to the whole podcast (27 min) it is well worth listening to for his insights into infectious diseases.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/fauci-very-different-relationships-presidents/index.html
He makes it very clear in the podcast if you can get outside without being within 6 feet of other people it is important to do so.
 
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Good article from an American living in China (teaches AP Psychology and English). Talking about how even after the quarantine ends things do not go back to 'normal'.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opin...quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html
But if there's anything I've learned after emerging from my own two-week quarantine in China, it's that we can't simply click our ruby slippers and return to life BC -- before Covid-19.

I have now been out of quarantine for almost 40 days -- and life is far from normal.

Just as I thought "normal" was beginning to see daylight, on March 28, China closed its borders to most foreigners to avert a resurgence of Covid-19 imported from returning residents.

What will "normal" be like when it arrives? The short answer is that it will be like a roller coaster and Ferris wheel: progress will be both volatile and slow.

She also mentions that even now there are still guards posted that take your temperature. If you are 'free and clear' you get a 'green code' for your cell phone that you show as you go places. If you turn off your phone's GPS or go out of town you get a red code. She says the temperature taking and having to show the codes has become more relaxed but are still in place. Only about 1/2 the stores are open with reduced hours and most restaurants that are open are still take out only (there are a few that have been cleared to have customers eat in the restaurant at the tables that are socially distanced apart.

Also, here is an article where Dr. Fauci talks about his relationship with 5 US Presidents. The link to the podcast that it is taken from is in the article. His discussion on US Presidents begins at min 8. If you have time to listen to the whole podcast (27 min) it is well worth listening to for his insights into infectious diseases.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/fauci-very-different-relationships-presidents/index.html
He makes it very clear in the podcast if you can get outside without being within 6 feet of other people it is important to do so.
Interesting that China closes its borders, and nobody says anything, but when Trump tries to do the same here in the US, the left immediately screams that he is RACIST and XENOPHOBIC. SHEESH !!!
 

WreckinGT

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Interesting that China closes its borders, and nobody says anything, but when Trump tries to do the same here in the US, the left immediately screams that he is RACIST and XENOPHOBIC. SHEESH !!!
There is a bit of a difference in criticizing government leaders in China vs criticizing government leaders in the US.
 

LibertyTurns

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@RamblinRed Can you summarize Fauci’s take on the Presidents? I’m interested but for some reason that podcast will not load. Maybe the Deep State took it out or Trump 86’d it?
 

MWBATL

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I’ve wondered if the business loans in the stimulus would even be used much, despite the fact they could be forgiven completely if employees weren’t fired. I’ve wondered if the risk of being stuck with the loan is too high - because if things don’t change soon enough, the loan would run out and you’ll be right back in the same place, facing the reduction in force but now with a huge loan hanging around your neck. Any insight into the applicability of these loans to your business?
I can tell you my business is going for those loans. They are meant to cover only 8 weeks of payroll, rent and utilities form the day you get the funds. If you borrow in excess of that you will have to pay that back, but if you keep staff and provide documentation to that effect, the loans will be forgiven. That's a deal!
 

MWBATL

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The latest on Sweden is they are indeed on a timeline behind everyone else, but their restrictions seem to be no different to me on that timeline. For example, all colleges and universities are closed. Gatherings have been reduced to 50 people. Social distancing has been in place for awhile. It is recommended as many people as possible work from home. I suspect since it is getting progressively worse there, just like it did everywhere else, they will continue to clamp down just like everyone else did. This is Sweden's infection chart below. By the way, they had 4,400 cases in this chart from 1 day ago. They are now over 5,000.

FoyZBdS.png
FYI, their social distancing is still much more relaxed than ours (or many others in EU). Restaurants are still open for service (although tables have been distanced) and a crowd of 50 is still far more than most nations are allowing these days. Plus they simply have not shut down their businesses the way the other nations have. No national or even city-wide stay-at-home orders of any kind.

I suspect you are correct that as inflections grow they will become more stringent, but they are trying a different approach...
 

LibertyTurns

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I would encourage any of you in a leadership position to look hard at the business loans. If you really believe you have viability with a 2 month stop gap which will evaporate if manning levels are sustained, I say go for it.

However, I’d look very hard at what you’re signing up for. This is not going to be a V shape recovery. We’re probably 3 years from working our way out of this, longer if we elect a moron in November. We saw why happened last time we asked a moron to dig us out of a crisis. 8 years of complete misery doubling down on one bad policy after the next.
 
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Remember The Young Woman Who Died While Waiting For A Coronavirus Test In New Orleans? The media went crazy reporting this and blaming Trump for it having happened. BUT it turns out that post-mortem testing indicated she did not have the virus, and that she had in fact been suffering for the last TWO years from an undiagnosed intestinal condition that her boyfriend lied about, saying she was perfectly healthy.
 

RamblinRed

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@RamblinRed Can you summarize Fauci’s take on the Presidents? I’m interested but for some reason that podcast will not load. Maybe the Deep State took it out or Trump 86’d it?

Below is what was in the CNN article that accompanied the podcast. So you can get some of the direct quotes there. From listening to it I would say that he had his highest praise for the 2 Bush's. He also had strong words of praise for Obama. He mentioned that Clinton was smart and had his head in the right place but was more formal. He largely tried to avoid saying anything about Trump positive or negative, partially because I think he doesn't want to say much while we are in the middle of a crisis. He did mention that one thing to remember is this will end, it will get better - but right now we are right in the middle. He also expects there to be multiple waves. And the more we social distance the better outcomes we will have.

The veteran doctor spoke in glowing terms about his relationships with earlier presidents. He highlighted his close relationship with President George H.W. Bush, noting that "just by accident I developed a really close friendship with him because he came to the (National Institute of Health) in the late 80s when he was vice president and was thinking of running for president, and he sincerely wanted to learn about HIV."
"He was a very modest, unbelievable human being. And he came in, he says, 'I want to learn,'" Fauci said, adding that he introduced Bush to patients at NIH and "gave him a bit of a tutorial on HIV."
"And all of a sudden he decided he was going to be my friend, thank goodness, and he invited me to the White House ... we had a very warm, personal type relationship," Fauci added.
His relationship with President Bill Clinton "was different," Fauci said.
"Clinton had all the right vibes about what to do. I had a good relationship with him, but it was quite formal, as you would have with respect to the presidency," he said.
Fauci said that he got to know President George W. Bush amid the crises of 9/11 and the 2001 anthrax attacks before he "had the privilege of being close to him and developing PEPFAR," or the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
Fauci considers Bush's PEPFAR -- an unprecedented, $3 billion-a-year program to help the world fight AIDS -- "one of the most important things any American president has ever done," he said, noting that "it saved millions of lives."
President Barack Obama was "a very easy person to get along with and a really good, good human being," Fauci said, highlighting the "marathon" of outbreaks at the time, including Ebola and Zika.
"He didn't joke about it because he was serious, but I remember once he walked into the into the Situation Room and we were sitting around and he just put his hand on his head," Fauci said.
"He said, 'I got children at the border, I got wars going on, and I'm spending all my time with these diseases. Would you guys please do something about this?' It was it was sort of like almost tongue in cheek, but it was serious," Fauci recalled.

One other note. Dr. Gupta asked him about a speech he gave at Georgetown early in 2017 where he said the US would likely have to face a pandemic soon and how he came to that conclusion. Fauci responded that every American President starting with Reagan has had to face an unexpected health crisis (or multiple) during their Presidency so it seemed natural to think it would happen again and a pandemic was a likely health crisis. He mentioned AIDs/HIV with Reagan and Bush, can't remember what it was with Clinton, anthrax with Bush, Swine Flu with Obama. There were a couple of others he mentioned that I can't remember off the top of my head.
 

GTRX7

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FYI, their social distancing is still much more relaxed than ours (or many others in EU). Restaurants are still open for service (although tables have been distanced) and a crowd of 50 is still far more than most nations are allowing these days. Plus they simply have not shut down their businesses the way the other nations have. No national or even city-wide stay-at-home orders of any kind.

I suspect you are correct that as inflections grow they will become more stringent, but they are trying a different approach...

The UK followed the same exact strategy. As far as I understand it, before March 20th, they were only implementing the same "recommended" social distance strategies that Sweden has implemented. On that date, March 20th, the UK only had 3,983 confirmed cases and 177 deaths (similar to Sweden's current totals of 5,000 confirmed cases and 252 total deaths). Less than 2 weeks later, the UK currently has 29,474 cases, including 2,352 fatalities. Sweden looks like it could be on the same path. Maybe they won't change their policies soon, but I would be surprised. Also, like the UK, I don't think there is much basis to believe that their current strategy is going to work.
 
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