Coronavirus Thread

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MWBATL

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GTRX7 said:
The UK followed the same exact strategy. As far as I understand it, before March 20th, they were only implementing the same "recommended" social distance strategies that Sweden has implemented. On that date, March 20th, the UK only had 3,983 confirmed cases and 177 deaths (similar to Sweden's current totals of 5,000 confirmed cases and 252 total deaths). Less than 2 weeks later, the UK currently has 29,474 cases, including 2,352 fatalities. Sweden looks like it could be on the same path. Maybe they won't change their policies soon, but I would be surprised. Also, like the UK, I don't think there is much basis to believe that their current strategy is going to work.
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My suspicion is that you are correct, but I am curious to follow it. Iceland has also apparently followed this strategy. Although it is a MUCH smaller nation and therefore may not be meaningful as an example for larger countries to study....
 

RamblinRed

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MWBATL said:
My suspicion is that you are correct, but I am curious to follow it. Iceland has also apparently followed this strategy. Although it is a MUCH smaller nation and therefore may not be meaningful as an example for larger countries to study....
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The original plan for UK was your basic 'herd immunity' strategy. It was after the Government was shown projections of how many people in the UK might die with no restrictions that the UK Government changed course. it was the same model with the 1.7-2.2M deaths in the US if no actions were to take place. I believe in the UK it was like 250,000.
You show any politician with even a few brain cells a chart like that and they are likely to change their plans.
 

RamblinRed

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This is a great article on why it is so hard to create a good model for infectious diseases (like COVID 19).
if all you do is look at the pretty charts you will be better off.
But i think the final statement in the article is very helpful
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless.

“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir said.

We’re hungry, so somebody has to do some baking. But be sure to ask what ingredients went into that pie and in what quantities.
 

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GTRX7 said:
The UK followed the same exact strategy. As far as I understand it, before March 20th, they were only implementing the same "recommended" social distance strategies that Sweden has implemented. On that date, March 20th, the UK only had 3,983 confirmed cases and 177 deaths (similar to Sweden's current totals of 5,000 confirmed cases and 252 total deaths). Less than 2 weeks later, the UK currently has 29,474 cases, including 2,352 fatalities. Sweden looks like it could be on the same path. Maybe they won't change their policies soon, but I would be surprised. Also, like the UK, I don't think there is much basis to believe that their current strategy is going to work.
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You'll notice the UK has almost 3,000 deaths. That's a 10% mortality rate - 100x higher than the Flu. Which means its not real - they aren't hardly testing anybody. My cousin over there has it, and is now 2 days into the third week fighting it and still has a fever. Every day she speaks with her doctor and is told "there aren't any tests". Their data is woefully lacking in the UK.
 

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MWBATL said:
My suspicion is that you are correct, but I am curious to follow it. Iceland has also apparently followed this strategy. Although it is a MUCH smaller nation and therefore may not be meaningful as an example for larger countries to study....
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Iceland has a population density 1/10th the United States, and is on an island, which you would think both would make travel control and disease control easier. And they are now pushing 700,000 cases on a US population equivalent basis.
 
GT_EE78

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bwelbo said:
Iceland has a population density 1/10th the United States, and is on an island, which you would think both would make travel control and disease control easier. And they are now pushing 700,000 cases on a US population equivalent basis.
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It sounds disastrous (and it is) , but Iceland's infection rate is 0.36% (double that of Italy)
 
GTRX7

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As long as a country has a hospital system that is able to handle the peak stress of a herd immunity approach, that is a reasonable strategy. I do not know about Iceland, but I suspect most countries do not have a hospital system anywhere near that robust. That is why flattening the curve is so critical. I will be interested to watch Sweden for sure.
 
FredJacket

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GT_EE78 said:
> Only in LA
Locomotive Engineer Derailed Train to Wreck Navy Hospital Ship Mercy Over Coronavirus
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/...over-coronavirus-suspicions-feds-say/2339287/
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What a dummy. Not diminishing what the idiot did and 20 years seems about right for endangering people and destroying property in this manner; but ......once again, the headline here is fake news. The reported confession does not indicate he thought for a second he'd "wreck" the Mercy.
 

MWBATL

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RamblinRed

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Not great news here. Experts told the White House yesterday that the virus can not only spread through coughing or sneezing, but just through talking (and possibly breathing) - through the spread of bioaeresols.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/health/aerosol-coronavirus-spread-white-house-letter/index.html

His letter explains that research at a hospital in China shows the virus can be suspended in the air when doctors and nurses remove protective gear, or when floors are cleaned, or when staff move around.

Research by the University of Nebraska shows that genetic material from the virus was found in patients' rooms more than 6 feet away from the patients, according to the letter.

Fineberg said it's possible that aerosolized coronavirus droplets can hang in the air and potentially infect someone who walks by later.

He added, however, that coronavirus is not as infectious as measles or tuberculosis.

How long coronavirus lingers in the air depends on several factors, including how much virus an infected individual puts out when breathing or talking, and also on the amount of circulation in the air, he said.

"If you generate an aerosol of the virus with no circulation in a room, it's conceivable that if you walk through later, you could inhale the virus," Fineberg said. "But if you're outside, the breeze will likely disperse it."
 
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