Coronavirus Thread

[CHE90]

This.

First of all, the way I heard Fauci describe it was that there was tremendous uncertainty about the death toll and that it is just a model and that it MIGHT be 100,000-200,000.

Secondly, if the CDC estimated that deaths would only be 20,000 vs 100,000, and then actual deaths turned out to be 30,000.....they would be roundly criticized. This way they will look like heroes instead.

Even the horrible Italian experience so far has fewer deaths than the 2016-2017 Italian Flu season per Bloomberg News. So for those pointing to the Italy experience, so far it has not eclipsed a bad flu season for them. It's all about perspective and the narrative.

 

[GTRX7]

Thank you for sharing all this information.

We don't have the nurse-power in the ERs to test everyone. Or everyone that wants a test. I have a cousin who works in an ER and she seems to post once a week to tell people to get pre-screened first and stay out of the ER. It sucks up all their resources just proving people don't need to be tested. New York has 75,000 cases. They have multiple hours long lines down the street of sick people waiting to get tested. Georgia has what - 3,000 cases? So it would make sense they would be testing 25x more people in New York. The real testing multiple is 8x. Hot spots will continue to have huge testing demand and PPE demand for sure.

Anecdotally, which is worth about zero, my cousin in the UK has been sick for 2 weeks. She's just now starting to feel a little better, but its been a real booger to get through. And she's totally healthy and 36 years old. It can be a long slog for those people that get hit with it.

Glad to hear your cousin is starting to feel better!

 

[LibertyTurns]

My county decided last night to keep restaurants, etc closed & follow Desantis’ guidance. No finger given.

 

[GTRX7]

Even the horrible Italian experience so far has fewer deaths than the 2016-2017 Italian Flu season per Bloomberg News. So for those pointing to the Italy experience, so far it has not eclipsed a bad flu season for them. It's all about perspective and the narrative.

And Italy instituted a pretty severe and extensive national lockdown three weeks ago, when total deaths were less than a thousand (new deaths per day were less than 50). Pretty scary to imagine what would have happened had Italy gone on business as usual like they do with the normal flu! I think that is kind of the point.

 

[CHE90]

I don't get what I'm missing. The investment houses are forecasting around $2T deficits this year. We were already pushing $1T before the coronavirus. We just passed a $2.3T spending bill. Corporate and individual tax revenue will collapse. Add all that up and to me it smells like $4T for a deficit. To estimate a $2T deficit, you'd basically have to say tax revenue doesn't change (insane assumption), and only half their stimulus bill gets spent (insane assumption). I guess we will have to see if they revise it, but they haven't so far.

maybe. or maybe we have 2 quarters of an incredibly shrinking economy followed by 4 quarters of exponential growth like we had in 1957-1958 on the back of the Asian Flu recession. If we have 4 quarters of exponential growth, tax receipts will rebound. Why does everyone fall for the sky is falling scenario? Oh, that's right because no one thinks for themselves.
Bloomberg qoq GDP at an annualized rate:

 

[CHE90]

It may be just an unfounded rumor, but I have heard that the CDC is already tracking cell phones here.

Probably true.

 

[CHE90]

Latest Fed estimates for unemployment is 32%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/cor...-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

OMG. the sky is falling!

 

[CHE90]

100,000-200,000 deaths is the current best case scenario, but as long as the rate is low we should throw a party amirite???

Base case according to one scenario. Stop falling for this crap!

 

[Milwaukee]

And Italy instituted a pretty severe and extensive national lockdown three weeks ago, when total deaths were less than a thousand (new deaths per day were less than 50). Pretty scary to imagine what would have happened had Italy gone on business as usual like they do with the normal flu! I think that is kind of the point.

Yea, pretty scary...

 

[CHE90]

Today my company terminated 2 positions in the Accounting Department (33% of my department), 2 drivers (18% of that department), and 1 temp. We have 5 people in our warehouse who volunteered to work 4 days a week just to keep their job. Our March 2020 sales are down 50% from the same period as last year.

And so it begins....

And don't forget your government did this to you.

 

[CHE90]

And Italy instituted a pretty severe and extensive national lockdown three weeks ago, when total deaths were less than a thousand (new deaths per day were less than 50). Pretty scary to imagine what would have happened had Italy gone on business as usual like they do with the normal flu! I think that is kind of the point.

Go look at Sweden and Japan, two countries that did not lock down.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Go look at Sweden and Japan, two countries that did not lock down.

Sweden has almost the same number of cases as us per capita. The book is yet to be fully written on this virus.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

OMG. the sky is falling!

That’s almost 50% worse on a relative basis than the Great Depression.

 

[CHE90]

Sweden has almost the same number of cases as us per capita. The book is yet to be fully written on this virus.

And yet they have kept schools, bars and restaurants open. Use your brain.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

And yet they have kept schools, bars and restaurants open. Use your brain.

Oh their exponential growth in cases looks so admirable.

 

[jwsavhGT]

What kind of distribution are you in? What markets do you serve?

We are a wholesales distributor of paper, packaging, food service disposables, janitorial supplies & chemicals, etc. We are located in Savannah and serve SE Georgia & South Carolina up to Charleston. Our customer base is heavy in the hospitality sector (restaurants, bars, hotels), local/state governments, schools (local & colleges), janitorial cleaning companies, some industrial sector.

 

[jwsavhGT]

Please don't attack each other. Just as I've issued the final warning on political posts in this thread consider this the last warning that will be issued as to personal attacks. I've removed several posts but the next time Warnings will be issued.

 

[GTRX7]

And yet they have kept schools, bars and restaurants open. Use your brain.

Some perspective here. Not every country is on the exact same timeline. Italy didn't initiate its nationwide lockdown until it already had over 10,000 confirmed cases. At that point, they knew things were about to blow up exponentially -- and they did. Hopefully the lockdown is slowing that growth.

For comparison, Sweden does not yet even have 5,000 confirmed cases. So, even during the "control" time before either country locked down, Italy was seeing more infections. As for whether Sweden's story has been written yet, here is a chart of their "daily increase" in confirmed cases. Notice which direction it is starting to trend?

 

[GTRX7]

Some perspective here. Not every country is on the exact same timeline. Italy didn't initiate its nationwide lockdown until it already had over 10,000 confirmed cases. At that point, they knew things were about to blow up exponentially -- and they did. Hopefully the lockdown is slowing that growth.

For comparison, Sweden does not yet even have 5,000 confirmed cases. So, even during the "control" time before either country locked down, Italy was seeing more infections. As for whether Sweden's story has been written yet, here is a chart of their "daily increase" in confirmed cases. Notice which direction it is starting to trend?

FYI, Japan's "daily increase" in confirmed cases. Almost like all the countries have the same early trend. I am sure it is just a strange coincidence.

 

[Milwaukee]

We are a wholesales distributor of paper, packaging, food service disposables, janitorial supplies & chemicals, etc. We are located in Savannah and serve SE Georgia & South Carolina up to Charleston. Our customer base is heavy in the hospitality sector (restaurants, bars, hotels), local/state governments, schools (local & colleges), janitorial cleaning companies, some industrial sector.

I’m a distributor as well; I’m fortunate enough to service the manufacturers that are all exempt from this whole “shutdown”. I wish you guys the best to get through.