Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

Is that 1M+ tests performed or 1M+ people tested? Every person tested positive is given a second test to confirm. Also, healthcare workers in some locations are being tested daily.

I believe it is over 1,000,000 tests.

 

[kg01]

Not sure why you are trying to pick a fight. I’m just looking for clarification and trying to make sense of all of these numbers.

Gotta forgive ol' b-elbow. I think you got caught in the middle of a political rock fight that's been going on for a couple weeks. A lot of folks say the mortality rate being low suggests the problem's not as bad, media is just sensationalizing, etc.

The math does suggest that, if we tested more people, the mortality rate would probably be lower. However, I don't think that means there's nothing to see here.

 

[RonJohn]

Not sure what any of this has to do with political beliefs. From what I can tell there are some people that just deny science and reality. I'll bet if you surveyed the millions of spring break kids running all over Florida recently you'd find a very small number that vote Republican. I just don't think politics has anything to do with it.

Well, maybe discussing the "reasons" for opening the school back up and that what other schools are doing is to: "push the problem off on other communities and sit there in their ivory towers" on conservative talk radio is an indication that it was at least in part political. Why go on political talk radio to discuss it in the first place? Why call a parent of students at the school a "dummy" for being concerned about their well being?

In my previous post, I said that people skew scientific data toward their biases. People don't even realize it when they do that. If Falwell had absolutely no biases and looked at the situation, he would not have done what he did. I'm sure he had "scientific" data that he pulled from here and there that "proved" to him he was doing the right thing. However, he did not look at all of the data and information. He excluded data that conflicted with what he wanted to believe. Therefore, I claim that his actions were based on his biases.

 

[LibertyTurns]

We get so much junk science thrown at us many of us just disregard the media even when they’re correct. Seeking good information is sometimes exhausting. It’s why you don’t do to media what we’ve done.

Judith Curry is a prime example. She got silenced by the radical majority pushing an extremely slanted view of reality sponsored by fake statistics designed to fuel the massive hoax perpetuated for decades now.

 

[stech81]

I'll bet if you surveyed the millions of spring break kids running all over Florida recently you'd find a very small number that vote Republican. I just don't think politics has anything to do with it.

I think you would find out most of them don't vote and have no idea who is the VP.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, maybe discussing the "reasons" for opening the school back up and that what other schools are doing is to: "push the problem off on other communities and sit there in their ivory towers" on conservative talk radio is an indication that it was at least in part political. Why go on political talk radio to discuss it in the first place? Why call a parent of students at the school a "dummy" for being concerned about their well being?

In my previous post, I said that people skew scientific data toward their biases. People don't even realize it when they do that. If Falwell had absolutely no biases and looked at the situation, he would not have done what he did. I'm sure he had "scientific" data that he pulled from here and there that "proved" to him he was doing the right thing. However, he did not look at all of the data and information. He excluded data that conflicted with what he wanted to believe. Therefore, I claim that his actions were based on his biases.

Absolutely Falwell's decisions were based on his biases. Just like all the spring breakers. And my guess is their political leanings are the polar opposite. A pastor in Tampa was arrested recently because he held a church service where 500 people showed up. They claimed they separated each family by 6 feet, but that violates the gathering size limits. And most importantly, its just idiotic. I've read numerous articles about black communities in areas like Detroit blowing up, because they have a general distrust of government, so they aren't following the recommendations and they also aren't coming into the hospitals until they are very sick. All these people vote differently. But they all have their own biases and reasons for ignoring recommendations and directions.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Chinese people have been caught multiple times trying to sneak novel viruses into the US.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/border-patrol-stopped-chinese-biologist-194214726.html

Surprised Yahoo would publish something like that.

 

[RamblinRed]

Today's update of the projection model didn't change much. As would be expected.
Right now the model projects the first day where the avg # deaths in the US drops below 100 is June 11. The first date where the upper confidence bound is below 100 is June 28th.

I think the ventilator issue is largely one of location and who owns the ventilators. I'm guessing the military actually owns alot of ventilators. also as you mentioned if they aren't in the right places when peak volumes hit then it doesn't matter. They have # ventilators by state and are doing the models at that lower level and then summing everything up from a state level to the Federal level.

 

[FredJacket]

It's also worth reading their daily update page
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

It gives you what has changed since the last model run. What analytical measures were changed or added. What updates they were able to make to assumptions based on new data and information.
One interesting note from that is they found out from Seattle area hospitals that 80% of COVID19 patients in ICU beds needed ventilators. Previous research suggested 54%. That has caused them to significantly increase the number of ventilators that will be needed, which means a greater difference between how many ventilators there are in the US and how many will be needed.

I have tried (sort of) to figure out why Virginia and Maryland are projected to peak so much later (last and next to last in US... in late May)... than the rest of the eastern seaboard. And a full month after neighbors like DC, NC, PA. Thoughts?

 

[RonJohn]

Absolutely Falwell's decisions were based on his biases. Just like all the spring breakers. And my guess is their political leanings are the polar opposite. A pastor in Tampa was arrested recently because he held a church service where 500 people showed up. They claimed they separated each family by 6 feet, but that violates the gathering size limits. And most importantly, its just idiotic. I've read numerous articles about black communities in areas like Detroit blowing up, because they have a general distrust of government, so they aren't following the recommendations and they also aren't coming into the hospitals until they are very sick. All these people vote differently. But they all have their own biases and reasons for ignoring recommendations and directions.

Falwell also stated in the talk radio interview: “Shame on the media for trying to fan up and destroy the American economy. They’re willing to destroy the economy just to hurt Trump.” So his biases were indeed political. I'm sure some liberal people will do some stupid things and ignore what science actually indicates when things settle down.

My whole point, which I believe you agree with, is that people should look at this scientifically. Let scientists examine all of the data and determine what the data is telling us. Don't extract bits and pieces , or use things like graphs with widely varying scales to tilt the data to match what one wants it to show.

 

[Buzzrock]

Another wrinkle for you math heads: I read that flu tests are 50-70% accurate. Let’s assume C19 tests are 90% accurate and we test millions of people. What does that do to the numbers?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Another wrinkle for you math heads: I read that flu tests are 50-70% accurate. Let’s assume C19 tests are 90% accurate and we test millions of people. What does that do to the numbers?

And many people that have the Flu are asymptomatic or only have minimal symptoms too. Its a big bowl of unknown spaghetti!

 

[MWBATL]

Its a big bowl of unknown spaghetti!

Quoted for truth.

 

[armeck]

Absolutely Falwell's decisions were based on his biases. Just like all the spring breakers. And my guess is their political leanings are the polar opposite. A pastor in Tampa was arrested recently because he held a church service where 500 people showed up. They claimed they separated each family by 6 feet, but that violates the gathering size limits. And most importantly, its just idiotic. I've read numerous articles about black communities in areas like Detroit blowing up, because they have a general distrust of government, so they aren't following the recommendations and they also aren't coming into the hospitals until they are very sick. All these people vote differently. But they all have their own biases and reasons for ignoring recommendations and directions.

Speaking of that pastor, here's a guy trying to one up him:

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Speaking of that pastor, here's a guy trying to one up him:

Never heard of either one of them. I hope they enjoy large fines and cold jail cells.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Speaking of that pastor, here's a guy trying to one up him:

I am a committed believer in Christ, but men like this are not serving God, at least not in the way God intended them to. The Kingdom of God is not well served or well represented by not using the brains God gave us.

 

[FredJacket]

if anyone wants to have fun with numbers, here is the link for the COVID 19 Peak Projection model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. This is one of the models being used by the US Health professionals.

The model assumes that every state that hasn't instituted mitigation measures will do so in the next 7 days and that all mitigation measures will remain in effect through May 30th and that the mitigation factors will have their intended effects. if any of those assumptions are incorrect than obviously the numbers would increase.

it has nice interactive charts on Hospital resource use, deaths per day and total deaths for the US and each state. They are updating this daily as they get new data in every day.
Right not the confidence interval is pretty wide with the mean at around 82K deaths through August 4th with a lower bound of around 40K deaths and an upper bound of around 140K deaths. Obviously as they get new data each day the model will update and the lower and upper bounds should start to shrink.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

there is a link at the bottom to download data and a link at the top that will take you to a page where you can read the research paper.

I have tried (sort of) to figure out why Virginia and Maryland are projected to peak so much later (last and next to last in US... in late May)... than the rest of the eastern seaboard. And a full month after neighbors like DC, NC, PA. Thoughts?

Not trying to pester you; but clarifying my previous post.

Ok... I have same question; but latest projections by this group has MD in early May (earlier than previous) and VA around June 1st (later than previous). At this point I'm assuming something in the data for Virginia is skewing it to the right. They have nearly every state on east coast peaking in late April or early May. Yet, Virginia 3-4 weeks later.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am a committed believer in Christ, but men like this are not serving God, at least not in the way God intended them to. The Kingdom of God is not well served or well represented by not using the brains God gave us.

I could not agree more with this sentiment. I strongly believe science and christianity are completely compatible. God gave us brains and the freedom to make choices. Pastors who act like these to me are no different than the James Bakkers of the world. I haven't read anything in the Bible or learned in church that says we should walk out in front of a train or take cocaine or drive a car 150mph because God will save us. That's nonsensical. These people are like snake charmers and playing with the devil.

 

[RamblinRed]

I haven't looked into the data closely to try to figure that out. i had noticed that some states had peaks way later than others.

i do think some of it may be due to the mitigation measures being put in place by different states. States with stronger mitigation measures would be expected to have later peak periods. My other guess is just based on the data being received from the states they are seeing slower spread rates in some states than others.
Sorry, that's all I got right now.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I haven't looked into the data closely to try to figure that out. i had noticed that some states had peaks way later than others.

i do think some of it may be due to the mitigation measures being put in place by different states. States with stronger mitigation measures would be expected to have later peak periods. My other guess is just based on the data being received from the states they are seeing slower spread rates in some states than others.
Sorry, that's all I got right now.

I think that's a fair guess. Plus, people are fleeing the hot spots, so a defensible argument can be made that they will help create more spread and more hot spots like whack-a-mole.