Deleted member 2897
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We're still on track for > 300,000 cases in the US by close of business Friday.
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This always reminds me of my favorite joke in terms of believing in God and using your head.
Man is on his front porch and the water is rising through his yard. Police come by- 'Sir we need you to evacuate, the water is going to rise and get worse', man replies 'don't worry, God will provide'. Later the water is lapping his front door and a fire truck comes by - 'Sir we are here to rescue you from the rising water', 'don't worry, God will provide', finally as the man is on his roof a boat from the National Guard comes by - 'Sir please get in the boat before your house is under water', 'don't worry, God will provide' the man replies. As the water rises the man drowns.
As he approaches the Pearly Gates, he asks - 'I've been a good Christian all my life, Why did you not save me'. God replies - 'I sent you the police, the fire department, and the National Guard, what else do you need me to provide?"
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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AMEN !!!
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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Good one. I've got to remember that.
Deleted member 2897
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Another good Meme:
"Americans Excitedly Anticipate Getting Paid With Their Own Money"
https://babylonbee.com/news/americans-excitedly-anticipate-getting-paid-with-their-own-money
Where would we be without these Onion type sites...
"Americans Excitedly Anticipate Getting Paid With Their Own Money"
https://babylonbee.com/news/americans-excitedly-anticipate-getting-paid-with-their-own-money
Where would we be without these Onion type sites...
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Two good places to follow numbers.
On a US basis CNN has a really good webpage.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/
This site is updated multiple times a day as they get info from state Health Agencies. They have the number of positive cases by state, the number of positive cases per 10K people per state and the number of deaths per state.
The second site is if you would like to follow the numbers just for the state of GA. AJC has an excellent site for that
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/
This has all their articles on it as well as updated numbers on the very first link that are updated twice a day (GA reports at noon and 7).
On the update page there is an interactive map where you can click on any county and see how many positive cases they have, how many deaths, and the positive cases by day.
in GA the biggest hotspot is still around Albany. More cases and more deaths than anywhere else in the state. They obviously got in a bunch of test results this morning as the number of new positive cases for Dougherty Co for Mar 31st at noon is 177 (which is the same as the last 6 days combined). Neighboring Lee county had 41 new positive cases this morning which is the equivalent of their last 10 days combined.
One last link. I'm a big fan of Fivethirtyeight.com. If you like Political or Sports modeling it is a great site to go to.
This link is one on COVID19. The most interesting chart in it and why I am including it, is because this article has a chart showing testing per 10K people in a state. It makes clear how uneven the amount of testing per state is. For example, NY at the time of this article (Mar 27) had tested 62.8 of every 10000 people in its state. For Georgia that number was 8.4.
It just shows how inaccurate it is to compare positive cases by state when the testing levels are so different.
The only number that is remotely comparable and even that is likely not 100% comparable is # of deaths.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-coronavirus-isnt-just-a-blue-state-problem/
FWIW, GA became the 7th state to reach 100 deaths yesterday.
A couple of interesting stats i've seen in the last 24 hours. The CDC Director spoke this morning. Said they are seeing about a 25% rate of asymtomatic cases. Also, people are contagious for roughly 48 hours before they start showing any symptoms. The other stat I saw is that the avg hospital stay for someone with COVID19 right now is around 18 days - so once someone goes into the hospital, they are taking a bed for a long period of time.
On a US basis CNN has a really good webpage.
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/
This site is updated multiple times a day as they get info from state Health Agencies. They have the number of positive cases by state, the number of positive cases per 10K people per state and the number of deaths per state.
The second site is if you would like to follow the numbers just for the state of GA. AJC has an excellent site for that
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus/
This has all their articles on it as well as updated numbers on the very first link that are updated twice a day (GA reports at noon and 7).
On the update page there is an interactive map where you can click on any county and see how many positive cases they have, how many deaths, and the positive cases by day.
in GA the biggest hotspot is still around Albany. More cases and more deaths than anywhere else in the state. They obviously got in a bunch of test results this morning as the number of new positive cases for Dougherty Co for Mar 31st at noon is 177 (which is the same as the last 6 days combined). Neighboring Lee county had 41 new positive cases this morning which is the equivalent of their last 10 days combined.
One last link. I'm a big fan of Fivethirtyeight.com. If you like Political or Sports modeling it is a great site to go to.
This link is one on COVID19. The most interesting chart in it and why I am including it, is because this article has a chart showing testing per 10K people in a state. It makes clear how uneven the amount of testing per state is. For example, NY at the time of this article (Mar 27) had tested 62.8 of every 10000 people in its state. For Georgia that number was 8.4.
It just shows how inaccurate it is to compare positive cases by state when the testing levels are so different.
The only number that is remotely comparable and even that is likely not 100% comparable is # of deaths.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-coronavirus-isnt-just-a-blue-state-problem/
FWIW, GA became the 7th state to reach 100 deaths yesterday.
A couple of interesting stats i've seen in the last 24 hours. The CDC Director spoke this morning. Said they are seeing about a 25% rate of asymtomatic cases. Also, people are contagious for roughly 48 hours before they start showing any symptoms. The other stat I saw is that the avg hospital stay for someone with COVID19 right now is around 18 days - so once someone goes into the hospital, they are taking a bed for a long period of time.
Milwaukee
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Buy one get one wings at B-Dubs today fellas, don’t forget. #Merica.
Deleted member 2897
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Thank you for sharing all this information.
We don't have the nurse-power in the ERs to test everyone. Or everyone that wants a test. I have a cousin who works in an ER and she seems to post once a week to tell people to get pre-screened first and stay out of the ER. It sucks up all their resources just proving people don't need to be tested. New York has 75,000 cases. They have multiple hours long lines down the street of sick people waiting to get tested. Georgia has what - 3,000 cases? So it would make sense they would be testing 25x more people in New York. The real testing multiple is 8x. Hot spots will continue to have huge testing demand and PPE demand for sure.
Anecdotally, which is worth about zero, my cousin in the UK has been sick for 2 weeks. She's just now starting to feel a little better, but its been a real booger to get through. And she's totally healthy and 36 years old. It can be a long slog for those people that get hit with it.
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Today my company terminated 2 positions in the Accounting Department (33% of my department), 2 drivers (18% of that department), and 1 temp. We have 5 people in our warehouse who volunteered to work 4 days a week just to keep their job. Our March 2020 sales are down 50% from the same period as last year.
And so it begins....
And so it begins....
LibertyTurns
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There’s absolutely no reason the Counterproliferation of WMD people are on these fine Chinese people’s butts. Just a vast right wing conspiracy. Move along people.
Deleted member 2897
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I am so sorry to hear this. For you and all those folks who have families too. I sure hope the changes to unemployment work right so people can make a substantial portion of their regular wages. Most people don’t save any money, so they have rent, mortgages, car payments, utilities, and everything else. Love from the community here to you and to everyone else out there struggling.
FredJacket
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I listened to press conference of Virginia governor announcing the statewide "stay at home" order yesterday. During Q&A, (paraphrasing) they asked if everyone in Va that needed to be tested was getting a test. The answer was a very honest "No... they are not" Followed by a very generic explanation regarding problems "with the supply chain".
MWBATL
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An interesting op-ed in the WSJ reflecting upon what all of us know by now, which is how variable and uncertain the "experts''" models are....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-models-of-uncertainty-11585609865?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx said its assessment of how the pandemic would unfold closely mirrors the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the so-called Murray model. That group last week estimated 81,114 deaths over the next four months, with 95% confidence that the number would be between 38,242 and 162,106.
That remains a HUGE spread in the estimate of deaths!
Further...
For instance, New York will need an estimated 35,000 more hospital and 7,300 ICU beds next week when demand for care is projected to peak. That’s a lot, but blessedly fewer than the 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds and 18,000 to 37,000 ICU beds that public health officials had said a week or so ago could be needed. This shows how projections can vary and quickly change.
Again, the numbers are changing rapidly, and people who hang their hats on those numbers or argue about them as if they were "facts" are not being honest (either with themselves, or with others, I cannot tell...).
Their bottom line?
April is going to be a brutal month for America, and the next two weeks especially. But as the bad news arrives, it’s important to understand that the worst-case-scenarios that many in the media trumpet are far from a certain fate.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-models-of-uncertainty-11585609865?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
White House coronavirus coordinator Deborah Birx said its assessment of how the pandemic would unfold closely mirrors the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the so-called Murray model. That group last week estimated 81,114 deaths over the next four months, with 95% confidence that the number would be between 38,242 and 162,106.
That remains a HUGE spread in the estimate of deaths!
Further...
For instance, New York will need an estimated 35,000 more hospital and 7,300 ICU beds next week when demand for care is projected to peak. That’s a lot, but blessedly fewer than the 55,000 to 110,000 hospital beds and 18,000 to 37,000 ICU beds that public health officials had said a week or so ago could be needed. This shows how projections can vary and quickly change.
Again, the numbers are changing rapidly, and people who hang their hats on those numbers or argue about them as if they were "facts" are not being honest (either with themselves, or with others, I cannot tell...).
Their bottom line?
April is going to be a brutal month for America, and the next two weeks especially. But as the bad news arrives, it’s important to understand that the worst-case-scenarios that many in the media trumpet are far from a certain fate.
Deleted member 2897
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Good grief, Italy just had yet another almost 1,000 death day. Their new daily cases have slowed. I can't remember when they went into lockdown, but it feels like a month ago.
Rough spitball, about 1/4 of the European countries I just looked up are showing the beginnings of a slowing of new cases too, just here recently.
Rough spitball, about 1/4 of the European countries I just looked up are showing the beginnings of a slowing of new cases too, just here recently.
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I'm not sure if i've shared this story, my apologies if I have.
COVID came to our cul-de-sac last weekend.
2 houses down from us we have a young couple who are nurses. The wife is an ICU nurse in metro Atlanta.
I saw her husband out on their front stoop last Saturday so I asked them how they were holding up. He mentioned that his wife had been quarantined at the house for the last 8 days with symptoms. Third nurse at the hopsital to have it.
The tough part and why my wife and I had been thinking alot about them is that the wife is 30 weeks pregnant.
As i told my wife, at least she is doing well enough to be at home recovering, rather than in really bad shape where she has to be in the hospital.
But i feel for them.
COVID came to our cul-de-sac last weekend.
2 houses down from us we have a young couple who are nurses. The wife is an ICU nurse in metro Atlanta.
I saw her husband out on their front stoop last Saturday so I asked them how they were holding up. He mentioned that his wife had been quarantined at the house for the last 8 days with symptoms. Third nurse at the hopsital to have it.
The tough part and why my wife and I had been thinking alot about them is that the wife is 30 weeks pregnant.
As i told my wife, at least she is doing well enough to be at home recovering, rather than in really bad shape where she has to be in the hospital.
But i feel for them.
takethepoints
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Some of you may have heard of Richard Epstein's recent essays on COVID-19 and death predictions. The responses to them has already pretty much zero'd out Epstein's creds as a commentator, but here's the ultimate critique:
https://rexdouglass.github.io/TIGR/...s_Instead_of_Contrarian_About_Covid19.nb.html
Would that all writers on the predictions made concerning the disease were as energetic and smart as Douglass. And as dedicated to getting at the truth of the matter and making it understandable. But, of course, that would require a much better understanding of science then is current in this country among either pundits or the population in general. Too bad, that.
I strongly recommend reading this. It will change the way you read everything else on the subject.
https://rexdouglass.github.io/TIGR/...s_Instead_of_Contrarian_About_Covid19.nb.html
Would that all writers on the predictions made concerning the disease were as energetic and smart as Douglass. And as dedicated to getting at the truth of the matter and making it understandable. But, of course, that would require a much better understanding of science then is current in this country among either pundits or the population in general. Too bad, that.
I strongly recommend reading this. It will change the way you read everything else on the subject.
Deleted member 2897
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Caveat I haven't read the whole thing yet, but it continues to frustrate me when people include China as if any of their data can be trusted. We have enough anecdotal evidence that we should just not include them in any analysis anymore.
Deleted member 2897
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Dr Birx said today at the press briefing that they don’t have a report of a single patient needing a ventilator in the US who didn’t get one. She was very non-Trumpian. Whereas he would have spouted off at the mouth, she was very empathetic of governors calls (think Cuomo) and panic. She said it’s a very stressful situation where hour by hour and day by day they’re trying to manage supply and dissemination. So people are rightly under a lot of stress.
Deleted member 2897
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We are now running almost 100,000 tests a day. Wow.
Milwaukee
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What kind of distribution are you in? What markets do you serve?
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