Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

Just got done reading a long NY Times article about how the ventilator emergency supply never got filled. So sad. Instead of going to companies that made ventilators and just ordering them, they (I think it was the FDA but can’t remember) embarked on a several years journey with a brand new company who had never made them before...and ultimately wasn’t ever able to deliver them. Ridiculous.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Well we have 160,000 cases. So roughly that’s a 16% positive test.

Also, that 16% positive test rate is based on a very select criteria for testing in the first place. Just imagine if that criteria was expanded to everyone with flu-like symptoms.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Also, that 16% positive test rate is based on a very select criteria for testing in the first place. Just imagine if that criteria was expanded to everyone with flu-like symptoms.

Yea, the whole world is struggling with supply. My cousin in the UK has their world famous NHS but “there are no tests”. For 10 days she’s had shortness of breath to where she’s almost had to go to the emergency room, “but there are no tests”. They advise her to stay home and wait it out unless it gets to be an emergency. The numbers all over the world are significantly worse than what’s reported. People want to act like we suck or something, but we don’t suck. All the numbers on testing and care I see are better than most.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

New quarantine drinking game:

 

[684Bee]

Yea, the whole world is struggling with supply. My cousin in the UK has their world famous NHS but “there are no tests”. For 10 days she’s had shortness of breath to where she’s almost had to go to the emergency room, “but there are no tests”. They advise her to stay home and wait it out unless it gets to be an emergency. The numbers all over the world are significantly worse than what’s reported. People want to act like we suck or something, but we don’t suck. All the numbers on testing and care I see are better than most.

So, y’all are saying you think MANY more people have it than what’s being reported?

If so, then I look for that mortality rate to drop big time, right?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So, y’all are saying you think MANY more people have it than what’s being reported?

If so, then I look for that mortality rate to drop big time, right?

100,000-200,000 deaths is the current best case scenario, but as long as the rate is low we should throw a party amirite???

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

So, y’all are saying you think MANY more people have it than what’s being reported?

If so, then I look for that mortality rate to drop big time, right?

Yes. The current 2% death rate in the US is based on the worst of the worst cases right now.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Chinese people have been caught multiple times trying to sneak novel viruses into the US.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/border-patrol-stopped-chinese-biologist-194214726.html

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

100,000-200,000 deaths is the current best case scenario, but as long as the rate is low we should throw a party amirite???

Do you know what duration that best case scenario is based on? 1 year?

 

[RamblinRed]

@RamblinRed Thanks for sharing the chart projection site. Good info.

It's also worth reading their daily update page
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

It gives you what has changed since the last model run. What analytical measures were changed or added. What updates they were able to make to assumptions based on new data and information.
One interesting note from that is they found out from Seattle area hospitals that 80% of COVID19 patients in ICU beds needed ventilators. Previous research suggested 54%. That has caused them to significantly increase the number of ventilators that will be needed, which means a greater difference between how many ventilators there are in the US and how many will be needed.

 

[RamblinRed]

Do you know what duration that best case scenario is based on? 1 year?

I believe the 100-200K estimate is the current best guess for the run of the virus (through next year) given that the models now suggest an avg of about 80K deaths through the end of July. Most of those happening in April and May and to some extent June as health care facilities get overwhelmed at peak times.

 

[684Bee]

100,000-200,000 deaths is the current best case scenario, but as long as the rate is low we should throw a party amirite???

Not sure why you are trying to pick a fight. I’m just looking for clarification and trying to make sense of all of these numbers.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

I believe the 100-200K estimate is the current best guess for the run of the virus (through next year) given that the models now suggest an avg of about 80K deaths through the end of July. Most of those happening in April and May and to some extent June as health care facilities get overwhelmed at peak times.

80K through this July, and 100K-200K through 2021? I think 1 of those is probably incorrect.

- Also, after this pandemic runs it's course, we also need to look at how many of those that died would probably have died during that time anyway to get an accurate account of how deadly the virus is.

 

[RamblinRed]

This is the type of headline every University President is going to be thinking about when they have to make a decision this summer on whether to allow students back on campus in the fall.
My belief is Presidents are going to have to feel very confident that they aren't going to see headlines like this before they approve having students return to campus.

https://www.ajc.com/news/liberty-un...s-have-covid-symptoms/zxL9i38SwSHBgLaTBki5pL/

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

New quarantine drinking game:

A 21 year old version of me would tell you there is nothing “new” about this game.

 

[RonJohn]

That has caused them to significantly increase the number of ventilators that will be needed, which means a greater difference between how many ventilators there are in the US and how many will be needed.

According to that report, ventilator need will peek at a maximum of 48,183 in the US. According to an NIH study in 2010, there were 62,188 full feature ventilators in the US, and about 98,738 less than full feature ventilators. The IMHE model could be wrong, but if it is correct there won't be a shortage of ventilators nationally. Whether the ventilators are in the place where they are needed is another question. Also of concern is that if a patient needs a ventilator, waiting 2 days for delivery from a few hundred miles away isn't an option. You either have it where you need it, when you need it or you don't have it.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Not sure why you are trying to pick a fight. I’m just looking for clarification and trying to make sense of all of these numbers.

Sorry, its just that same line of thinking is repeatedly used by the spring break crowd to say there's nothing to see here.

 

[RonJohn]

This is the type of headline every University President is going to be thinking about when they have to make a decision this summer on whether to allow students back on campus in the fall.
My belief is Presidents are going to have to feel very confident that they aren't going to see headlines like this before they approve having students return to campus.

https://www.ajc.com/news/liberty-un...s-have-covid-symptoms/zxL9i38SwSHBgLaTBki5pL/

That is what happens when you put political beliefs above science and medicine. I could see some liberal leaning universities cancelling on campus instructions in the fall even if the science says it is safe for political reasons. The best thing to do is to ignore political leanings and base decisions on pure science. However, that is difficult because people tend to skew scientific data towards their biases.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That is what happens when you put political beliefs above science and medicine. I could see some liberal leaning universities cancelling on campus instructions in the fall even if the science says it is safe for political reasons. The best thing to do is to ignore political leanings and base decisions on pure science. However, that is difficult because people tend to skew scientific data towards their biases.

Not sure what any of this has to do with political beliefs. From what I can tell there are some people that just deny science and reality. I'll bet if you surveyed the millions of spring break kids running all over Florida recently you'd find a very small number that vote Republican. I just don't think politics has anything to do with it.

 

[forensicbuzz]

We’ve now tested over 1,000,000 Americans.

Is that 1M+ tests performed or 1M+ people tested? Every person tested positive is given a second test to confirm. Also, healthcare workers in some locations are being tested daily.