Coronavirus Thread

[Milwaukee]

Take that back, Juice. I know you’re panicking from the media driven frenzy but lets not say anything we’ll regret. No need to slam Cheesecake Factory or Chili’s in times like these. #Merica

Guys I’m gonna go crush the waterrower for a couple hours, you fellas hold the fort down for me please.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Some recent articles by the "experts"

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...irus-death-projection-in-uk-remains-unchanged

Bottom line is that the estimates and opinions remain all over the map. Stanford states:
“A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health,” the article concluded.
and more....
“On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%,” the professors said. “Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.”

From the UK studies:
Ferguson, who tested positive for the coronavirus, said Wednesday the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower if lockdown measures in the U.K. stay in place, noting that he is “reasonably confident” that the health system can handle the burden of treating coronavirus patients.
He had previously projected over 500,000 deaths and still believes that figure of NO measures were taken to combat the outbreak.

Well here are a couple challenges with this line of thinking:
1) Every year tons of people get the Flu but are asymptomatic or don't get severe symptoms enough to get tested or go to the doctor.
2) Italy is seeing nearly as many deaths every day as they've had this entire season from the regular Flu.

So the best we can do is apples to apples. Or quasi-apples to quasi-apples. We can't do all this extrapolation for the Coronavirus and then not do the same for the regular Flu. Maybe the death rate for real is only 0.06%. But then if you do this for the regular Flu you might find its only 0.01%. All of these mental gymnastics ignore what we can see with our own eyes - this virus is much more contagious, results is much more severe illness, and its overwhelming the healthcare systems in the hot zones. There is no vaccine and no medicinal cure. And we're seeing these conditions despite unprecedented stay at home orders.

 

[GT_EE78]

Spain bought $500m of test kits and ventilators and supplies from China. They found out a lot of it came from companies not certified and faulty. Now they’re stuck having to test each item before use, making the situation even worse.

80% of Rapid COVID-19 Tests the Czech Republic Bought From China are Wrong

 

[Deleted member 2897]

80% of Rapid COVID-19 Tests the Czech Republic Bought From China are Wrong

The world needs to take a **** on China when this is over. The sooner the better.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

My 2 little personal pet projects I've been watching (Switzerland and Iceland) are both right at 500,000 positive COVID-19 cases on a US-population adjusted basis. 1/2 a percent of San Marino now has it - that's over 2 million positive cases on a US-adjusted population ratio. Incredible.

 

[Lotta Booze]

Take that back, Juice. I know you’re panicking from the media driven frenzy but lets not say anything we’ll regret. No need to slam Cheesecake Factory or Chili’s in times like these. #Merica

Guys I’m gonna go crush the waterrower for a couple hours, you fellas hold the fort down for me please.

I saw a softball setup and had to swing

You do you with the Chili's. I hear they got some bargains

 

[takethepoints]

I have a question regarding House rules. Why does a recorded vote require more more members to be present than a voice vote? That doesn't seem right.

It isn't a recorded vote that's the problem. It's the existence of a quorum.

What Massie might do - has he? - is suggest the absence of a quorum. Without 216 members present, the House can't do business. If 216 show up and answer present when the clerk calls the roll, then the Speaker can call for the bill (it's already on the calendar). Since the Speaker controls recognition, she (or he; could be a Speaker pro tem) can simply ignore calls from the floor and call for the ayes and nays; i.e. a voice vote. And, of course, the ayes will have it.

None of that can happen until a quorum has been established. That's what everybody is carping about. Given the divisions in the House, most members will show up; neither party will trust the other to go through with the vote otherwise.

But, I hear you ask, what if no quorum call is made and the House simply proceeds with the bill? That wouldn't violate the rules because it is always presumed that a quorum exists unless a member suggests it doesn't. (They usually do, btw.) You could have 10 members present, proceed to a voice vote, and pass the bill without a problem. But, apparently, that won't happen.

 

[MWBATL]

Passed! Massie got out-foxed!

 

[MWBATL]

Well here are a couple challenges with this line of thinking:
1) Every year tons of people get the Flu but are asymptomatic or don't get severe symptoms enough to get tested or go to the doctor.
2) Italy is seeing nearly as many deaths every day as they've had this entire season from the regular Flu.

So the best we can do is apples to apples. Or quasi-apples to quasi-apples. We can't do all this extrapolation for the Coronavirus and then not do the same for the regular Flu. Maybe the death rate for real is only 0.06%. But then if you do this for the regular Flu you might find its only 0.01%. All of these mental gymnastics ignore what we can see with our own eyes - this virus is much more contagious, results is much more severe illness, and its overwhelming the healthcare systems in the hot zones. There is no vaccine and no medicinal cure. And we're seeing these conditions despite unprecedented stay at home orders.

Yes, but how would your opinion change if we determine that the virus has been in the US since early December? There is some evidence which suggests that and it would imply we are near the peak right now

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Not sure if his is appropriate for this thread, but it's the latest news. The House has passed the stimulus bill and passed it on to Trump.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/house-gives-final-passage-2-172726606.html

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yes, but how would your opinion change if we determine that the virus has been in the US since early December? There is some evidence which suggests that and it would imply we are near the peak right now

My opinion wouldn’t change if it has been here since last July or only since March.

 

[CuseJacket]

From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
Demand for hospital beds in US will peak by mid-April, analysis finds

1. Excess demand for hospital beds and intensive care unit beds will peak in the U.S. in the second week of April.

3. There will be an estimated 81,114 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 over the next four months, and there will be more than 2,300 deaths daily by the second week of April.

5. "Demand for health services rapidly increases in the last week of March and first 2 weeks of April and then slowly declines through the rest of April and May, with demand continuing well into June," according to the study.

Full read: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def.../covid_paper_MEDRXIV-2020-043752v1-Murray.pdf

 

[takethepoints]

From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
Demand for hospital beds in US will peak by mid-April, analysis finds




Full read: http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def.../covid_paper_MEDRXIV-2020-043752v1-Murray.pdf

Well … until the virus roars back in the fall, that is. See:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/how-we-beat-coronavirus/608389/

If we are smart about this - and we had better hope we are - then the fall resurgence won't catch us with our pants down and we'll be able to ramp things back up without major delays. Then we can hold it back until we get a vaccine. Nothing else will actually fix the problem. But in the mean time we need to be ready for what's coming down the track and build the extra capacity we will need. That's what the Koreans did after they were scared by the MERS epidemic. It worked for them; it can work for us.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Anything to get by in a crisis. This is cute ---
https://www.iheart.com/content/2020...-to-store-with-note-for-cheetos-dog-delivers/

 

[MWBATL]

My opinion wouldn’t change if it has been here since last July or only since March.

It should. The longer it has been in this country, the more people have already had it with very mild symptoms. This would reduce considerably the number still out there who are at risk.

 

[GT_EE78]

3rd covid-19 US County map
Data is now from https://infection2020.com/
No claims of the use or accuracy of these maps is implied.
http://7lstv.com/covid19/covid-03-27-20.png

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well … until the virus roars back in the fall, that is. See:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/how-we-beat-coronavirus/608389/

If we are smart about this - and we had better hope we are - then the fall resurgence won't catch us with our pants down and we'll be able to ramp things back up without major delays. Then we can hold it back until we get a vaccine. Nothing else will actually fix the problem. But in the mean time we need to be ready for what's coming down the track and build the extra capacity we will need. That's what the Koreans did after they were scared by the MERS epidemic. It worked for them; it can work for us.

When the dust settles from the outbreak the spring, we’re going to have 800 million ventilators and 427 trillion masks.

 

[takethepoints]

When the dust settles from the outbreak the spring, we’re going to have 800 million ventilators and 427 trillion masks.

That might do it.

This thing is probably going to be like the flu, a seasonal virus. Any spare capacity will be useful.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That might do it.

This thing is probably going to be like the flu, a seasonal virus. Any spare capacity will be useful.

Yea. I think the way out of this is that the rest of the world is so much more aggressive with vaccines and new medicines than we are, that they're going to get some things done this summer, and then we'll be able to use that.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Italy blew through its previous record high and had 919 deaths in the last day.

We predicted 100,000 cases here by end of today. We're at 98,000 as of a few hours ago, so we'll surely surpass that.

Most of the rest of Europe also had their single worst days on record. Spain blew through 5,000 deaths, France 2,000 deaths. Switzerland blew through 500,000 US-population equivalent cases. Given that Europe is about 2 weeks ahead of us, its pretty darned sad they show no signs of peaking out anywhere.

South Korea, who went linear a couple weeks ago and has been averaging about 100 new cases per day, has continued along that path for weeks, unable to put an end to it. Still, that's probably the goal, a moderate predictable regular increase. That would be like 500 new cases a day here in the US over and over. We'd surely love to have something like that right now.