Conference Realignment

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I just don’t see the ACC blowing up. There are not enough “factory” schools in the conference to do that. I cannot see UNC, NCSU, or UVA ever leaving the conference. I can see F$U and Clemson doing so, but there would still be 15 pretty good to good football programs in the ACC.

Just be ready to be shocked then. Just because some schools passed up opportunities to join a better conference doesn’t mean others will. The ACC as you perceive it only exists in your head.

 

[stinger 1957]

Anyone that thinks the ACC will be a factor in big time CFB as we move fwd to 2036 is absolutely fooling themselves. IMO we will be at best a good BB conference which is what the tobacco road mafia likes anyway. Personally I'm old and won't be around, but if I were younger I'm guessing my interest would drift to another program as I watched the agony of ACC and GTFB falling out of big time CFB. I would not be by myself I'm pretty sure. I've watched some Vandy alums do the same over the years.

 

[stinger78]

This has been happening for a long, long time. GT football, except for the odd year or two, is largely irrelevant in the national discussion. It has been this way as long as I can remember, and I’m old, too. In my lifetime as a GT fan/alum I have seen exactly 5 teams reach the top 10: 1966, 1990, 1998, 2009, and 2014.

We have lost many fans over the years. Look at that old photo of BDS floating around. The ACC will continue to play good college football if F$u and/or CU leave. Yes, it will struggle to compete at the top of the college football world, but all except 2 programs are already there. As for GT, we’ve been there a long time.

 

[stinger 1957]

This has been happening for a long, long time. GT football, except for the odd year or two, is largely irrelevant in the national discussion. It has been this way as long as I can remember, and I’m old, too. In my lifetime as a GT fan/alum I have seen exactly 5 teams reach the top 10: 1966, 1990, 1998, 2009, and 2014.

We have lost many fans over the years. Look at that old photo of BDS floating around. The ACC will continue to play good college football if F$u and/or CU leave. Yes, it will struggle to compete at the top of the college football world, but all except 2 programs are already there. As for GT, we’ve been there a long time.

I agree with you GT has been irrelevant for a long time, we've done it to ourselves, mostly IMO because the school has not wanted it for a long time and that has gradually eroded supporter and fan interest. What brought my excitement and optimism back was the school President making the commitment to the program, but for him to carry it out will be impossible IMO if we stay in the ACC.
I have to disagree with Jacketup about the Big not wanting to expand, I believe they most definitely want in the southeast and if they make a move it will trigger some moves by the SEC if just to protect their home turf.
Would not be shocked if the Big 10 first move was outside of ACC.
The player $ settlement situation may need to work itself out before realignment starts up again, it could put pressure on realignment ( smaller and/or poorer schools I'm guessing, but maybe even others ) just need to see what happens there IMO.
I hear too many people that you know are talking to insiders saying realignment will continue and that we are headed to something more along the lines of the NFL eventually, but they also say they don't know exactly how it all plays out. I'm guessing there is a plan in place for it to happen, but only a few know the plan.
In the meantime they're keeping the fans interest going with all the speculators like me

 

[57jacket]

I agree with you GT has been irrelevant for a long time, we've done it to ourselves, mostly IMO because the school has not wanted it for a long time and that has gradually eroded supporter and fan interest. What brought my excitement and optimism back was the school President making the commitment to the program, but for him to carry it out will be impossible IMO if we stay in the ACC.
I have to disagree with Jacketup about the Big not wanting to expand, I believe they most definitely want in the southeast and if they make a move it will trigger some moves by the SEC if just to protect their home turf.
Would not be shocked if the Big 10 first move was outside of ACC.
The player $ settlement situation may need to work itself out before realignment starts up again, it could put pressure on realignment ( smaller and/or poorer schools I'm guessing, but maybe even others ) just need to see what happens there IMO.
I hear too many people that you know are talking to insiders saying realignment will continue and that we are headed to something more along the lines of the NFL eventually, but they also say they don't know exactly how it all plays out. I'm guessing there is a plan in place for it to happen, but only a few know the plan.
In the meantime they're keeping the fans interest going with all the speculators like me

I just hope GT is in constant contact with BIG. That is our new home if ACC implodes, IMHO

 

[stinger78]

What would make the ACC implode? Here are the teams currently in conference:
Miami, F$u, GT, CU, UNC, NCSU, DU, WFU, UVA, VPI, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Louisville, Stanford, Cal, and SMU, and partially ND. That’s 17+1 teams.

For the conference to implode, there has to be a better place for a large number of those teams. Where will they go that is better?

Further, if the ACC implodes, it means that more than 4-5 teams have already moved to a better place. Today that is the SEC or B1G. If the ACC implodes those two will have already absorbed 4-5 ACC teams. Would there be room for more?

 

[forensicbuzz]

The more lawsuits that are lost, the more I become convinced that we are about to undergo a massive transformation (something like FCC --> BCT ) in college sports. The granting of a class in House v. NCAA is going to end up in the Supreme Court because of the implications. Both sides will appeal this all the way to the top.

So, the class action is to strike all forms of NIL restrictions (schools can and should pay players directly for their Name, Image, and Likeness, not their ability to play in a particular sport, but solely their NIL). Then, they want to make it retroactive (not sure how far back), thus allowing former players to look to be made whole. They will be looking for what they would have been able to make if there was no NIL ban. I think that's going to be a very difficult ask. What this could open up is direct payment for NIL from the schools to the players. Obviously, a huge money grab by the lawyers. The judge is the same Northern California judge who allowed Pandora's box to be opened in the first place.

In the end, football, basketball, swimming, track & field, tennis, gymnastics, and all other sports with a professional level, will become Academy sports. Everything else will drop to the club level. These academies may be loosely tied to universities (and some of the athletes may even matriculate to that university), but these will be professional organizations that compensate the players in their Academies. I think there will be players' unions and collective bargaining, including salary caps, so there will be more parity.

All of this will make the conferences non-existent. I think this will happen before 2036 and that there won't be any teams leaving the ACC before this happens.

 

[orientalnc]

The more lawsuits that are lost, the more I become convinced that we are about to undergo a massive transformation (something like FCC --> BCT ) in college sports. The granting of a class in House v. NCAA is going to end up in the Supreme Court because of the implications. Both sides will appeal this all the way to the top.

So, the class action is to strike all forms of NIL restrictions (schools can and should pay players directly for their Name, Image, and Likeness, not their ability to play in a particular sport, but solely their NIL). Then, they want to make it retroactive (not sure how far back), thus allowing former players to look to be made whole. They will be looking for what they would have been able to make if there was no NIL ban. I think that's going to be a very difficult ask. What this could open up is direct payment for NIL from the schools to the players. Obviously, a huge money grab by the lawyers. The judge is the same Northern California judge who allowed Pandora's box to be opened in the first place.

In the end, football, basketball, swimming, track & field, tennis, gymnastics, and all other sports with a professional level, will become Academy sports. Everything else will drop to the club level. These academies may be loosely tied to universities (and some of the athletes may even matriculate to that university), but these will be professional organizations that compensate the players in their Academies. I think there will be players' unions and collective bargaining, including salary caps, so there will be more parity.

All of this will make the conferences non-existent. I think this will happen before 2036 and that there won't be any teams leaving the ACC before this happens.

This is an interesting argument, but it seems to imply that Congress or the SCOTUS is willing to direct how colleges spend money on sports. Or don't spend it. I also don't see why players should be paid for the use of their NIL if it's not being used (and no one really wants to use it). If the current NIL rules were rigorously enforced I think the current system could last quite a while. But collectives are pooling money and paying athletes to play for State U instead of someone else. Granted, this is simply an above the table version of what was happening prior to legal NIL payments. Still, the play for pay environment will kill college sports. If that doesn't, the unlimited transfer portal will. If the Ga Tech teams become the Techwood Yellow Jackets because the Hill doesn't want a pro team under their umbrella, I probably won't be on Swarm bitching about it. I won't care.

 

[iceeater1969]

We are about to get left out in the cold. We might have to start a nerd conference for schools with higher academic requirements (Vandy, Duke, Wake, etc.).

The bond holder on our debt( 1/4 billion ) says , "what about me"? The NCAA cutting per team deal to settle lawsuit - says "you owe 30 million ? Nil wants money? The tv guys say no one wants to see your nerd conference but if you pay us an up front a cover fee, we will put games on tv.

We are buikding a nez gtaa office and player complex, reworking the petters park, Southern end zone .
That tells me they trust alumni to donate, to come, to promote gtaa. Our Leader are out front.

Go Jackets.

 

[g0lftime]

The bond holder on our debt( 1/4 billion ) says , "what about me"? The NCAA cutting per team deal to settle lawsuit - says "you owe 30 million ? Nil wants money? The tv guys say no one wants to see your nerd conference but if you pay us an up front a cover fee, we will put games on tv.

We are buikding a nez gtaa office and player complex, reworking the petters park, Southern end zone .
That tells me they trust alumni to donate, to come, to promote gtaa. Our Leader are out front.

Go Jackets.

Isn't that what DRad thought?

 

[jgtengineer]

Isn't that what DRad thought?

DRad did not have hill backing liek Cabrera backs Batt.

 

[g0lftime]

DRad did not have hill backing liek Cabrera backs Batt.

He sure added a lot of buildings and debt.

 

[LT 1967]

I was surprised to see the two attached articles concerning Penn State and the status of their NIL program. It Indicates that they are not competitive at the Championship level. Gist of the articles indicates that Penn State does not have the "Whale" or "Rainmaker" type donors like some other universities. The articles do indicate they are receiving more support by their Administration.

GT is not the only one who could use some Multi Billionaires or large companies like Fed Ex to support our NIL!

 

[gtbb]

So, what is our "worst case"? I'm wondering if it's being stuck in a conference with mostly small'ish fanbase private schools, and a few other public schools. Maybe the leftovers of the ACC are the following:

Tech, Duke, Wake, Miami, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Louisville....maybe we pick up Tulane and Rice....or maybe VT & NC State are still in it.

Is this a conference that can maintain a presence in the CFP world? I'll still attend games and support the program, no matter what. We'll have a football team and we'll play games against other schools.

Anyway, if FSU & Clemson leave, I really hope that UNC, UVA, NC State, and VT all stay, to give us some big state-schools to help anchor the remaining ACC.

 

[forensicbuzz]

None of this matters anymore. I’ve convinced myself the next 5-10 years will be transformative and conferences will be gone.

 

[yeti92]

So, what is our "worst case"? I'm wondering if it's being stuck in a conference with mostly small'ish fanbase private schools, and a few other public schools. Maybe the leftovers of the ACC are the following:

Tech, Duke, Wake, Miami, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Louisville....maybe we pick up Tulane and Rice....or maybe VT & NC State are still in it.

Is this a conference that can maintain a presence in the CFP world? I'll still attend games and support the program, no matter what. We'll have a football team and we'll play games against other schools.

Anyway, if FSU & Clemson leave, I really hope that UNC, UVA, NC State, and VT all stay, to give us some big state-schools to help anchor the remaining ACC.

I would rather stay in that version of the ACC than move to the Big 12. Retain some semblance of continuity and probably still gets a better media deal too just because of the number of media markets covered - remember, the Big 12 was just now able to negotiate an equal payout to the deal the ACC made basically a decade ago, and Clemson wasn't anything special then either (Clemsoning anyone?). I think Tech could be the top team in that conference on a regular basis too.

 

[stinger78]

So, what is our "worst case"? I'm wondering if it's being stuck in a conference with mostly small'ish fanbase private schools, and a few other public schools. Maybe the leftovers of the ACC are the following:

Tech, Duke, Wake, Miami, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Louisville....maybe we pick up Tulane and Rice....or maybe VT & NC State are still in it.

Is this a conference that can maintain a presence in the CFP world? I'll still attend games and support the program, no matter what. We'll have a football team and we'll play games against other schools.

Anyway, if FSU & Clemson leave, I really hope that UNC, UVA, NC State, and VT all stay, to give us some big state-schools to help anchor the remaining ACC.

Looks like you have Clemson, F$u, UNC, NCSU, UVA, and VPI all leaving. That’s 6 teams. Where will they all go?

The SEC will have 16 teams and the B1G will have 18 teams in 2024. Would they both go to 20? Would the SEC sit idly by and allow the B1G to scoop up two or more of those teams and claim a major stake in southern football? How would those conferences offset the missing media rights for so many and still maintain current per team payouts?

Finally, would the ACC add any schools, or would they keep those 6 programs’ media rights and divide it among 6 fewer schools? Irony of ironies… could the ACC schools end up making more in that scenario? At ~$40M per school that’s an additional $240M to be divided now among 11 programs, or over $20M per school more.

 

[iceeater1969]

Looks like you have Clemson, F$u, UNC, NCSU, UVA, and VPI all leaving. That’s 6 teams. Where will they all go?

The SEC will have 16 teams and the B1G will have 18 teams in 2024. Would they both go to 20? Would the SEC sit idly by and allow the B1G to scoop up two or more of those teams and claim a major stake in southern football? How would those conferences offset the missing media rights for so many and still maintain current per team payouts?

Finally, would the ACC add any schools, or would they keep those 6 programs’ media rights and divide it among 6 fewer schools? Irony of ironies… could the ACC schools end up making more in that scenario? At ~$40M per school that’s an additional $240M to be divided now among 11 programs, or over $20M per school more.

In 84 when i started my engr company i learned money in business is accounted for based on CASH or ACCURAL and banks / irs frown on mixing them. I went cash basis, paid taxes, never borrowed because the other method took to much management effort away from always imporving company


Do we really think those demanding divorce won't tie up the cash in court? Yes we could need to do the lawyer route if the future is very bleak, but if we are law nerds , clients ( tv) want to hire us. .


I like negotiate and move on.
Hold nose, cut deal w big 12, left overs pac 8, organize in way that requires schools to promote new conference or get expelled( no free ride- like USMC officer promption). GO COAST TO COAST.
MAKE IT TILL BLOOM OFF SEC AND BIG 13!

 

[WreckinGT]

So, what is our "worst case"? I'm wondering if it's being stuck in a conference with mostly small'ish fanbase private schools, and a few other public schools. Maybe the leftovers of the ACC are the following:

Tech, Duke, Wake, Miami, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Louisville....maybe we pick up Tulane and Rice....or maybe VT & NC State are still in it.

Is this a conference that can maintain a presence in the CFP world? I'll still attend games and support the program, no matter what. We'll have a football team and we'll play games against other schools.

Anyway, if FSU & Clemson leave, I really hope that UNC, UVA, NC State, and VT all stay, to give us some big state-schools to help anchor the remaining ACC.

Just my best guesses here. I think likely FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA go to the P2 conferences. I think if that happens Louisville goes to the B12. The interesting group after that is Miami, NC State, and VT. If they all leave then you have a conference with GT, Duke, Wake, BC, Pitt, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Syracuse. Likely some more get added (Memphis, Tulane, UConn, etc.). There are too many ACC teams that will have nowhere to go for the ACC to fall apart completely. It will effectively turn into an upper tier G5 conference though.

 

[g0lftime]

Just my best guesses here. I think likely FSU, Clemson, UNC, and UVA go to the P2 conferences. I think if that happens Louisville goes to the B12. The interesting group after that is Miami, NC State, and VT. If they all leave then you have a conference with GT, Duke, Wake, BC, Pitt, Stanford, Cal, SMU, Syracuse. Likely some more get added (Memphis, Tulane, UConn, etc.). There are too many ACC teams that will have nowhere to go for the ACC to fall apart completely. It will effectively turn into an upper tier G5 conference though.

There is a move in North Carolina to force UNC, NCSU to play at least one of these teams, ECU, App State, or UNCC, each year. Legislature is talking like they will force UNC and NCSU to be tied to the same conference regardless. Sorta like UVA and VT deal. May have already happened.
Conference realignment is getting state governments and the legal system more in control and more involved. NIL is another example of how the courts are changing college football.