Conference Realignment

orientalnc

orientalnc

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L41k18 said:
Pure speculation, nothing more. You or I could post our opinions about the subject here and that would have the same relevance.
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I agree with this. Since I posted my comment initially there has continued to be speculation about which ACC teams might be targets for the B1G and SEC.

More speculation: If the SEC and B1G decide to break away from the other P4 conferences to form two "super" conferences with less, or no, control oversight by the NCAA, I think ND will be forced to make a hard decision. Currently they are bound to the ACC if they join a football conference. It will be interesting to see where and how that goes. Also, FSU and Clemson and UNC are just as bound to the ACC.
 

MWBATL

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L41k18 said:
Pure speculation, nothing more. You or I could post our opinions about the subject here and that would have the same relevance.
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I’ve had that same thought. So much of journalism, and especially sports journalism, is just some person spouting their opinions, which are often no better (and frequently much worse) than what is posted on these message boards.
 

L41k18

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Randy Carson said:
True. But when someone who is not an obvious Tech homer says it, it suggests that the idea has some merit.
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How?
I might think, say, Virginia would be a great add to the B1G. It means absolutely nothing because I have zero say, no influence and no clue whatsoever what the powers-that-be are actually thinking. Which is the case for all these folks throwing their opinions out for clicks.
 

CEB

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L41k18 said:
How?
I might think, say, Virginia would be a great add to the B1G. It means absolutely nothing because I have zero say, no influence and no clue whatsoever what the powers-that-be are actually thinking. Which is the case for all these folks throwing their opinions out for clicks.
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I’d be as thrilled as anyone to see GT to the BIG getting some real traction, but there’s not much to get excited about here. Even if there were merit to this list, we sit at #8. I highly doubt that BIG and SEC add four teams each. Our number doesn’t get called even if (big IF) this opinion actually comes to fruition.

This article seems to change themes throughout… I thought it was a “Top 10” list of candidates, but the 10th candidate is a “lock” although they sit five spots behind two de facto “basketball only” adds (Kansas and Duke). Duke is also apparently the 3rd and the 5th best candidate…hmmm. Good news there, I guess that actually moved GT into the 7th spot! But I still don’t see 7 more teams going to the BIG / SEC.

They kinda lost me right out of the gate with the assertion that the Big 12 will come-a-poaching. The BIG / SEC would have to take a REALLY deep cut to send schools scurrying to the B12, and I don’t see either of those happening.

I guess logic doesn’t drive clicks though…
 

stinger 1957

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CEB said:
When the dust settles, I’m not sure anyone will be choosing big 12 over the ACC either.
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I'm guessing that ESPN takes their out they have beginning in '27. They have to give notice to the ACC of their decision to exercise or not exercise their option by Feb '25, less than a year from now. My thoughts are that is where the s#*% hits the fan. If that is what actually happens I would expect those ACC schools that do not make it to the Big and SEC will go to the Big 12 (probably not all of remainder ACC schools) it will be the best money still available. I think GT ends up either in the BIG or Big 12 because of being in the 7th largest media mkt. My guess for sometime now has been the BIG. As you can see it's all guesses and speculation on my part, but I have felt for a long time that the ACC does not survive and I feel that very strongly. It might survive similar to the the Pac 2 , the ACC 4,5,6? Very little TV money if any. Remainder might end up merging with group of 5 or something like that just as is being talked about with the Pac 2 and Mountain West I believe it is.
 
stinger78

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stinger 1957 said:
I'm guessing that ESPN takes their out they have beginning in '27. They have to give notice to the ACC of their decision to exercise or not exercise their option by Feb '25, less than a year from now. My thoughts are that is where the s#*% hits the fan. If that is what actually happens I would expect those ACC schools that do not make it to the Big and SEC will go to the Big 12 (probably not all of remainder ACC schools) it will be the best money still available. I think GT ends up either in the BIG or Big 12 because of being in the 7th largest media mkt. My guess for sometime now has been the BIG. As you can see it's all guesses and speculation on my part, but I have felt for a long time that the ACC does not survive and I feel that very strongly. It might survive similar to the the Pac 2 , the ACC 4,5,6? Very little TV money if any. Remainder might end up merging with group of 5 or something like that just as is being talked about with the Pac 2 and Mountain West I believe it is.
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Doomsday scenario.
 

CEB

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stinger 1957 said:
I'm guessing that ESPN takes their out they have beginning in '27. They have to give notice to the ACC of their decision to exercise or not exercise their option by Feb '25, less than a year from now. My thoughts are that is where the s#*% hits the fan. If that is what actually happens I would expect those ACC schools that do not make it to the Big and SEC will go to the Big 12 (probably not all of remainder ACC schools) it will be the best money still available. I think GT ends up either in the BIG or Big 12 because of being in the 7th largest media mkt. My guess for sometime now has been the BIG. As you can see it's all guesses and speculation on my part, but I have felt for a long time that the ACC does not survive and I feel that very strongly. It might survive similar to the the Pac 2 , the ACC 4,5,6? Very little TV money if any. Remainder might end up merging with group of 5 or something like that just as is being talked about with the Pac 2 and Mountain West I believe it is.
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I heard ‘25 but not FEBRUARY of ‘25. Thanks for that info… that will be here quickly.
My opinion is that the ACC deal is undervalued… maybe just slightly, but undervalued. I think ESPN keeps it. I think it’s quality “cheap” programming. Not that FSU, UNC and even ND are rain makers as the deal is structured, but if ESPN punts, it’s highly likely that it loses them to BIG / Fox. Not a huge risk I grant you, but still a risk.
If the ACC naysayers are right and the ACC deal is so abhorrent that ESPN can’t wait to get out, I guess you’re right. I just dont think so. I think they stick through ‘36 and I think that the departures in ‘33-‘36 are no more than 4-5. The ACC will be viable as a conference, similar to B12 afterward. Hopefully it’s still a good debate as to whether we are 3rd or (distant) 4th.
 

yeti92

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Even if ESPN doesn't extend the option (whatever it may cover), I would expect them to want to negotiate a media rights contract with the ACC, there is still valuable media rights to be had, and they still have time slots to fill. Not extending also allows FOX/NBC/Apple/Amazon/etc to get in the mix and make offers on those media rights. There seems to be an idea floating around, perhaps more other places than here, that the ACC will just cease to have any media rights deal in 2027 if ESPN doesn't extend, and that's just not going to be the case.
 
UgaBlows

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I have a feeling that ESPN and FOX will agree under the table to divvy up the desirable ACC teams that they want added to the big 2 conferences- then the ACC/pac2/big12 leftovers will get combined into a mega-conf for espn to use to fill programing (Espn The Ocho etc) on the cheap.
 
iceeater1969

iceeater1969

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UgaBlows said:
I have a feeling that ESPN and FOX will agree under the table to divvy up the desirable ACC teams that they want added to the big 2 conferences- then the ACC/pac2/big12 leftovers will get combined into a mega-conf for espn to use to fill programing (Espn The Ocho etc) on the cheap.
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Liked this because i said it last fall??
Or
Its the one ADVERTISING EXECUTIVES WANT.
.The college presidents last stand- we are the acc. WE SAY WERE R top tier in academics but We REALLY ARE second tier in athletics. Thatcgives us cover for the slow decline
 

yeti92

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UgaBlows said:
I have a feeling that ESPN and FOX will agree under the table to divvy up the desirable ACC teams that they want added to the big 2 conferences- then the ACC/pac2/big12 leftovers will get combined into a mega-conf for espn to use to fill programing (Espn The Ocho etc) on the cheap.
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Why would ESPN agree to give up media rights of teams they already own at a very favorable rate, and allow them to go to a competitor?
 
Dman374

Dman374

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I'd love to see a proforma built comparing the current ACC deal as is, versus raiding the ACC of the best schools and promoting better weekly matchups in the SEC and BIG12 ESPN products. I bet Nick Dawson over at ESPN has already made up his mind, and I'd bet their proforma shows more marquee matchups = more $$$ than leaving the ACC as is. I mean no disrespect to those who think the ACC network will live on until 2036, but you have to understand these people in entertainment are cut throat. If ESPN is really in talks with Fox and Warner Brothers for a collective sports only streaming package, I would bet they've already discussed which properties go to which networks.

Here's where I have a wild thought. What about Warner Brothers?

Fox and ESPN currently have the chokehold on college sports broadcasting with CBS (excluding CBS Sports network) and NBC taking typically one primetime game. There's this rumored sports streaming package with Fox/ESPN/Time Warner for sports only. Could any of the Warner Brothers/Turner Networks play a role? I know Amazon, Apple, etc. etc. can bid as well, but could TruTV, that's now being repositioned for sports, acquire television rights for any college sports properties? I think it will, and I think it's no coincidence this reported joint streaming package is part of the reason why. I believe TruTV will sublease directly from FOX/ESPN in the short term, and I would bet dimes to donuts the revenue from TruTV for subleasing, is accounted for in ESPN's proforma for killing the current ACC deal.
 
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