Conference Realignment

[stinger78]

TV in general holds all the cards for College Football, period. Until folks stop caring about money (in other words, never) the TV folks will dictate what the shape of college sports is.

All it takes is for the rest of the CFB world to stop enabling the elites. They’ll make plenty of money along the way.

 

[gtjackets930]

I posted this in the other thread about the playoffs, looking back over the prior fourteen seasons:

How does this impact Notre Dame?: ND would have qualified for a 14-team playoff 6 times by ranking - a bit over 40% of the time. Had they been in the ACC, they would have picked up one extra playoff spot in 2019 as the second auto-qualifier. I thought the proposed format might be an inducement for them to join the conference, but history doesn’t offer a compelling reason.

I have to imagine ND would still have gotten an at-large big in 2019, right? They were 2nd place in the ACC that year, but even had they not been, they still would have been a top 12 team if I am not mistaken.

 

[roadkill]

I have to imagine ND would still have gotten an at-large big in 2019, right? They were 2nd place in the ACC that year, but even had they not been, they still would have been a top 12 team if I am not mistaken.

In 2019 ND was ranked 15th going into bowl season. So they would not have qualified for a playoff spot based on rank. However, they would have still ranked second in the ACC, so would have gotten the second auto-bid spot had they been in the conference, whereas without the conference affiliation, they would not have qualified.

They would have been ranked high enough to qualify anyway for the at-large spots based on overall rank, for several other seasons.

edit to add: ND would have just missed getting an auto-bid last year despite their mid-teen ranking, as they were just one spot behind Louisville in the CFP ranks, despite being one spot ahead of them in the AP poll.

 

[orientalnc]

In 2019 ND was ranked 15th going into bowl season. So they would not have qualified for a playoff spot based on rank. However, they would have still ranked second in the ACC, so would have gotten the second auto-bid spot had they been in the conference, whereas without the conference affiliation, they would not have qualified.

They would have been ranked high enough to qualify anyway based on overall rank, for several other seasons.

I understand your points, but the next few years will be very different than the past few. Don't be surprised if four or five SEC and B1G teams are in the 14 team playoff. Two each from the ACC and B12, plus one G5. ND should be worried.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

This 14-team model should be VERY alarming to ND. With only three at large teams their chances at the CFP as an independent shrink dramatically. But, as a member of the ACC, especially if they announce it soon, the ACC suddenly looks much better when compared to the SEC.

Not really. ESPN or whatever network bids for the games will just manipulate the polls to get ND in. What many posters have yet to grasp is the polling system dictates all of it and the SEC/BIG/ESPN triumvirate have controlled it for years. It‘s a total sham system. It’s why you won’t see a single ACC team ranked in the preseason top 15 and why you’ll see the SEC/BIG ranked in the top 10. They can’t risk 2 ACC teams being ranked inside the top 12 this coming season.

They know preseason polls set the narrative. And no one questions it. It’s a media blackout on this topic. Has anyone asked why the polling was so wrong last season having UGA ranked #1 ALL SEASON and then they don’t even make the playoffs. That shows how wrong the system was but they did it to reserve a spot for the SEC by doing it. It’s an amazingly smart way to manipulate the entire sport. Team A starts off 3-0 and is ranked 18th because they started out unranked while Team B starts off 2-1 and is ranked 6th because they started out ranked 2nd. We always see teams with 2 losses still ranked inside the top 12 while “outsider” teams who are undefeated or have 1 loss are barely in the top 20.

What they should do is just have a playoff for teams with recruiting rankings in the top 15 since that’s all the preseason polls are anyway. Forget about the actual coaching and maturity of players.

 

[orientalnc]

In 2023, the 14-team playoff (using the 2024 conference alignment) would have been Michigan, Washington, tOSU, PSU, & Oregon from the B1G, Bama, uga, Missouri, Ole Miss from the SEC, FSU & UL from the ACC, AZ & Okla St from the B12, and Liberty. The problem ND has to overcome is that somewhere between three and five teams potentially ranked lower than them have guaranteed spots.

Maybe ND believes they can consistently finish in the top 10, which they will have to do. That could be much more difficult when the B1G and SEC expand their conference schedules to nine games (which they are almost certain to do). Finding ranked teams willing to have one of their three OOC games against ND will be a challenge. Most likely it be Michigan and Ohio State in the coming years. Right now I do not see a team on their 2024 schedule I am think will be in the preseason top 10. The best games for them in 2024 are ACC games.

 

[roadkill]

In 2023, the 14-team playoff (using the 2024 conference alignment) would have been Michigan, Washington, tOSU, PSU, & Oregon from the B1G, Bama, uga, Missouri, Ole Miss from the SEC, FSU & UL from the ACC, AZ & Okla St from the B12, and Liberty. The problem ND has to overcome is that somewhere between three and five teams potentially ranked lower than them have guaranteed spots.

Maybe ND believes they can consistently finish in the top 10, which they will have to do. That could be much more difficult when the B1G and SEC expand their conference schedules to nine games (which they are almost certain to do). Finding ranked teams willing to have one of their three OOC games against ND will be a challenge. Most likely it be Michigan and Ohio State in the coming years. Right now I do not see a team on their 2024 schedule I am think will be in the preseason top 10. The best games for them in 2024 are ACC games.

This is a valid point that I did not fully consider. There are a lot of variables. The potential scenario for ND to miss out would be to rank 11th - 14th, and then have two SEC or B1G (and/or ACC or B12) teams in that same range that auto-qualified. I don't know the likelihood of that happening, but it's not zero.

Should this occur more than once we might see ND start making moves to join a conference.

 

[awbuzz]

TV in general holds all the cards for College Football, period. Until folks stop caring about money (in other words, never) the TV folks will dictate what the shape of college sports is.

"liked" because it is true, not because I like it.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

What Notre Dame knows is as long as they are decent the TV networks who carry the playoffs will want them in. That’s all that matters. Conferences do not matter to ND. That way of thinking is over. Just be decent and ESPN will control the polls and narrative to get them in.

 

[Root4GT]

What Notre Dame knows is as long as they are decent the TV networks who carry the playoffs will want them in. That’s all that matters. Conferences do not matter to ND. That way of thinking is over. Just be decent and ESPN will control the polls and narrative to get them in.

They better win 10 games every year to be in the Top 10. Of course with 5 ACC games they have nearly 5 auto wins. They are 45-9 vs the ACC since 2014 when they partially joined the ACC.

As an aside that does strengthen the narrative the ACC is a weak football conference.

 

[orientalnc]

They better win 10 games every year to be in the Top 10. Of course with 5 ACC games they have nearly 5 auto wins. They are 45-9 vs the ACC since 2014 when they partially joined the ACC.

As an aside that does strengthen the narrative the ACC is a weak football conference.

Didn't they lose to UL and Clemson last year?

 

[Root4GT]

Didn't they lose to UL and Clemson last year?

They did and they were not in serious consideration for the CFP. However 45-9 screams loudly the ACC has not been a good football conference on the whole the past decade.

ND seems to be slipping as well. When their very successful HC leaves to go to LSU that also screams there are issues.

As I said they better be no worse than 10-2 any year or they are not in the CFP.

 

[orientalnc]

As I said they better be no worse than 10-2 any year or they are not in the CFP.

I wonder if this is the case for everyone. I can't see a three loss SEC team in the playoffs.

 

[57jacket]

What's the historic high comments on a topic? This must be near it.

 

[orientalnc]

What's the historic high comments on a topic? This must be near it.

Interesting. I started this thread almost two years ago when my neighbor texted me with a tweet saying USC and UCLA might be going to the Big Ten. Things have moved on from that initial post.

 

[TooTall]

I wonder if this is the case for everyone. I can't see a three loss SEC team in the playoffs.

But those were 3 quality losses to teams in the best conference in the land....gotta be ranked top 10!

 

[stinger78]

I wonder if this is the case for everyone. I can't see a three loss SEC team in the playoffs.

Not often, but it is a non-zero probability, especially now with so many at-large teams.

 

[L41k18]

I wonder if this is the case for everyone. I can't see a three loss SEC team in the playoffs.

If the new proposal passes the SEC will have 3 auto bids, so yes it is extremely likely at least one 3 loss SEC team will be in every year after 2025.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

You guys aren’t seeing that the entire paradigm has changed, yet you are using old thinking. They will get in whatever teams they want in. Throwing records around is a fools errand and is no longer a variable. Just ask FSU. Yes, teams with 2-3 losses will get in because they will simply rank them higher in the polls and give us reasons as to why, and just like in the FSU scenario, many posters here will agree. It’s the same reason we always see teams with 1 loss in October and November ranked behind 2 loss teams.

ND has no need to join any conference. In years they are good they will be pushed up in the polls by the TV execs and a similarly situated teams like an Arkansas or Georgia Tech will be pushed down to make room. They just pushed down an undefeated team to make room for two 1 loss teams and since it worked so well with zero pushback they’ll gladly push down 1-2 loss teams for 2-3 loss teams that TV wants. This is exactly why no other sport uses a polling system, otherwise the NBA Finals and Super Bowl would always be a NY team vs. a Cali team.

 

[yeti92]

You guys aren’t seeing that the entire paradigm has changed, yet you are using old thinking. They will get in whatever teams they want in. Throwing records around is a fools errand and is no longer a variable. Just ask FSU. Yes, teams with 2-3 losses will get in because they will simply rank them higher in the polls and give us reasons as to why, and just like in the FSU scenario, many posters here will agree. It’s the same reason we always see teams with 1 loss in October and November ranked behind 2 loss teams.

ND has no need to join any conference. In years they are good they will be pushed up in the polls by the TV execs and a similarly situated teams like an Arkansas or Georgia Tech will be pushed down to make room. They just pushed down an undefeated team to make room for two 1 loss teams and since it worked so well with zero pushback they’ll gladly push down 1-2 loss teams for 2-3 loss teams that TV wants. This is exactly why no other sport uses a polling system, otherwise the NBA Finals and Super Bowl would always be a NY team vs. a Cali team.

Zero pushback? Were you in a coma there for a bit?