After this year we only lose Banks and Phillips (obviously early departures are possible but I don't think you can really predict that about any of our players). Phillips provides some depth but with the addition of Parham I don't see his loss as being overly significant barring unpredictable events. Banks is obviously a big loss and would make a glaring hole at the 5 spot, but we'd be returning a lot of experience elsewhere and tremendous experience at PG especially which is a huge reason for optimism. The situation also sets up nicely for recruiting either a one and done center and backup combination similar to what we did with Favors and Miller, or a grad transfer and freshman combo, due to playing time available on a team otherwise poised to return to the NCAAT. Even if we have to do something like play a big who would really be better spent having a year coming off the bench it's not the end of the world as the experience around him should limit how much we have to rely on the 5 spot on offense. I'd argue that there is pretty good reasons to be optimistic both for this year and for 2020.
The big concern is the 2021 year. We're on pace to lose Jose, Parham (if he gets a waiver), Usher, Wright, and Cole. If we decide to go the grad transfer route or one and done route that could be another loss and it's not unreasonable that Devoe could go pro. So 2021 is likely a major rebuilding year which seems to be going back to where we were when Pastner is hired but the major difference is that he'd not be bringing in a transition class, and he'd be recruiting off the back of two NCAAT appearances which should make things easier. In that sense there would have been major improvement from where we were when he was hired.
The major counterpoint would be those who argue that it would rely on recruiting to make that worthwhile and that Pastner has been a terrible recruiter. The thing I don't understand about those arguments though is that they try to only look at recruiting in isolation and don't look at other additions, or try to just handwaive them away. For instance, in the 2019 recruiting cycle what were our biggest needs? We needed 3 point shooting, a guard to help give Alvarado and Devoe a breather, and production at the 3 spot. We added a guy who was 12th in the nation in 3PA and converted at a 40% clip. We also added a former 4* wing player with experience in a P5 conference. While those weren't recruiting additions, and so people pretend that they didn't happen, they were pretty good solutions to our biggest problems. And Pastner has done a pretty good job of that in his time here. The biggest issue we had for a long time was poor PG play. Pastner brought in a guy who was able to step up and be pretty good immediately, then a top 100 PG, and finally Parham to give them a rest. We've gone from starting a SF at PG to having one of the better PG situations we've had in the last couple decades. Last year the biggest forseable problem was replacing Lammers and we brought in a former 5* center. The biggest hole we had that wasn't addressed was due to Okogie leaving early, and when your best player leaves early during the middle of a rebuilding job it's likely you're going to have a big hole that is very hard to fill. You can't just look at recruiting because it doesn't paint the full picture of what total team you have put together. Right now next year's team has one major hole and that is at Center. Based on past performances I fully expect Pastner to find a good solution to that. 2021 is a situation with many issues present but it'll also be, if things go well, a very different recruiting situation than he has faced while here so far.
It is by no means a certainty but there is plenty of reason for optimism for the next two years on the court, and thus long term on the back of that.
