CFP Discussion

Thwg777

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
360
Thwg777 said:
Assuming Michigan wins, I think it’s Michigan - 1, Washington -2 and Texas -3. 4 seed is free shoes if they win. But I think free shoes loses and Bama is 4.

I think ugag gets in as 4 seed if both Michigan and free shoes lose (ugag over an OSU) so Washington, Texas, Bama and ugag in this very unlikely scenario.
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FWIW, betting markets this morning imply this.

Michigan, Washington, and Texas all have small national championship odds.

Odds are shorter on Bama than FSU. But both of those odds are longer than the other three I mention above. Implied odds look to be about 30% Bama / 70% FSU as the 4th team in.

Dwags are 50-1 to win the natty. Ohio State isn’t even offered anymore.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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1,120
GT33 said:
This is all ridiculous. All undefeated P5 Conferences Champions unless there are 5 should have automatic berths in the playoff. Teams with 1 loss should have head to head done. If multple teams have 1 loss mom-Conference Champions should be eliminated, it's head to head in that remaining group if they played each other, next should go to common opponents, then the mythical strength of schedule.

Let's see, there's 5 P5 Conference Champions. 3 have zero losses, 2 have a loss & low and behold they played each other. Pretty damn simple except now we want a roster review for player health. Where did that come from? Never existed until the SEC is about to be shut out of the playoffs. Why is that?
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roadkill said:
Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."
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Again, it's been published on the CFP website. Possibly since 2012, but certainly before UGA lost.
 
roadkill

roadkill

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RonJohn said:
You are correct, they are most definitely not similar. FSU wasn't tied at half time with a 6-6 USF team. FSU wasn't losing the game with 30 seconds left to a 6-6 Auburn team. When you look at the actual games, sometimes it just sticks out that teams aren't dominant they way they used to be.
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F$U is my hometown team and I'd like nothing more than to see them get into the playoffs over Bama and uga. I'm simply pointing out published criteria that the playoff committee can use to justify putting in Bama over FSU. Personally, I think "undefeated" should trump the other factors, but the committee has left themselves wriggle room.
 
stech81

stech81

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LongforDodd said:
Perhaps but my eyeballs say otherwise.
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take these off
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RonJohn

RonJohn

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4,545
roadkill said:
F$U is my hometown team and I'd like nothing more than to see them get into the playoffs over Bama and uga. I'm simply pointing out published criteria that the playoff committee can use to justify putting in Bama over FSU. Personally, I think "undefeated" should trump the other factors, but the committee has left themselves wriggle room.
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Also published on the CFP website "Every FBS team has equal access to the playoff based on its performance." If a P5 team goes undefeated and wins the conference championship while scheduling two SEC teams isn't an example of "performance", then I don't know what is. Apparently many people believe that struggling with 6-6 teams is a sign of strong performance.

Going by the published criteria of the committee, the entirety of the season should count. That means that you don't only compare the games from Saturday, you have to compare the games from earlier in the season. Alabama hasn't looked good for the entire season. Compare the FSU-Louisville game (with the third string QB) to the Bama-USF game (with the starting QB). I have heard some say that FSU should be dinged because Louisville lost to Kentucky a week ago. Well, compare the FSU-Louisville game to the Bama-Auburn game. Auburn lost to NMSU the week before that game.

FSU went undefeated, apparently that doesn't matter. FSU played better against common opponents, apparently that doesn't matter. FSU did not have games where it struggled as badly as Bama did against bad teams, apparently that doesn't matter. Bill Hancock is either a shill or he is a spinmaster. He does not ever explain why/how the committee reached their decision. His job is to offer excuses for why they decided the way they did.
 
RonJohn

RonJohn

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LongforDodd said:
With ugag? I can see how you’d say that but they are extremely talented and I believe can beat anyone on any given Saturday
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Is that the measure of a best team? They can beat anyone on a given Saturday? That probably fits 20-30 teams. The mutts are not as strong a team this year as they have been in the past. The majority of the teams they played to this year, they could have lost on a given Saturday. The SEC is under .500 against other P5 conferences this year. The entire conference is down. Alabama has shown that they are beatable. The mutts have shown that they are beatable. They should not just get the benefit of the doubt this year just because of ........ SECSECSECSECSECSECSEC
 
stinger78

stinger78

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Top 25 SEC OOC Games - 2023

Week 1: Utah 24 - UF 11; UNC 31 - USCe 17; FSU 45 - LSU 24; UGAg 48 - UT-Martin 7; Bama 56 - MTSU 7; UT 49 - UVA 13; TAMU 52 - NM 10
Week 2: Texas 34 - Bama 24; UGAg 45 - Ball St 3; UT 30 - Austin Peay 13; LSU - 72 - Grambling 10; Ole Miss 37 - Tulane 20
Week 3: Bama 17 - USF 3; Mizzou 30 - KSU 27; Ole Miss 48 - GT 23
Week 4: UGA 49 - Ball St 21; UT 45 - UTSA 14; UF 22 - Charlotte 7
Week 10: UT 59 - UConn 3
Week 12: Bama 66 - Chattanooga 10; Ole Miss 35 UL-Monroe 3; LSU 56 - GA St 14
Week 13: FSU 24 - UF 15; Clemson 16 - USCe 7; UGAg 31 - GT 23; UK 38 - UL 31

Of these games, 10 were against other P5 programs. The SEC Top 25 teams were 4-6 against P5 opponents and the ACC was 4-4.
FSU was 2-0 [LSU and Florida]
UNC was 1-0 [South Carolina]
Clemson was 1-0 [South Carolina]

Tennessee was 1-0 [ UVA]
Ole Miss was 1-0 [GT]
UGAg was 1-0 (GT]
Kentucky was 1-0 [Louisville]
 
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