CFP Discussion

RamblinRed

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FWIW, I likely won't be on again until tonight or tomorrow so I wanted to give my predictions on what the committee will do. (We'll see how I do later).

I think the final Top 8 will be the following
1) Mich
2) Wash
3) FSU
4) TX
5) AL
6) UGA
7) Oh St
8) OR

I think the in-studio analyst at the halftime of the FSU-L'ville game said it best. Results on the field have to matter, otherwise just line up the teams outside the buses and pick the 4 prettiest.
It doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 30, it matters whether you win or lose. FSU found a way to win with a true FR 3rd team QB.
TX beat AL (at Bama) that has to count or why schedule the game.
They may look better, but that doesn't mean they will win. Most people thought OR was going to beat Wash and Wash largely dominated that game.
SMU beat Tulane, at Tulane, with their backup QB because they have a great defense.

I'm also intrigued to see what happens with the G5 bid. While the committee has no charge to pick the G5 team, it is ultimately decided based on their poll. Will they slide SMU in front of Liberty since their best win (on the road at a Top 25 opponent) is better than anything Liberty has?

FWIW, the 2 night games had some of the best defense between Mich, Iowa and FSU I have seen. Can't say the same about L'ville because they were playing a handcuffed FSU offense.
That was the only game all season that L'ville scored less than 13 points and one of only 2 (a 13-10 win over NC ST) where they scored fewer than 21.
Michigan did what it has done all season. It is like a boa, it just strangles you and its defense gets tighter and tighter as the game goes on.


Fans tend to get enamoured with the offensive output, but a great defense can keep you in a game against just about any team.
 

GT33

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Papa Foxtrot said:
I saw it reported that he repeated the Sesame Street analogy 3 times on GameDay.
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Apparently SEC clown didn't learn his numbers. 1 loss is more than 0 losses. The Tx beat Bama which beat mutt. One of those doesn't look like the others, maybe it's the didn't lose thing again? Too many dumbasses can't figure it out.
 

MWBATL

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grandpa jacket said:
I see Michigan, Washington,Texas and Alabama
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Can’t understand folks who put in Bama over unbeaten FSU. The SEC this year simply is weaker than in the past. The ACC went 6-4 against the SEC, and you would put in a 12-1 SEC Champ in over a 13-0 ACC Champ? And that SEC Champ needed a miracle against Auburn …

Some of y’all make no sense…
 
roadkill

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AugustaSwarm said:
They kinda do have it published. They value wins and conference champions. There's more, but those are the two biggest factors. So...yes, it should be 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Tex.

If not, then the CFP committee has made themselves into liars.
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Yes. Quoted from the CFP website (emphasis mine):
"...when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree...The selection committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  1. Conference championships won,
  2. Strength of schedule,
  3. Head‐to‐head competition,
  4. Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  5. Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."
Comparing FSU to Bama:
  1. Both won their conference
  2. Bama had a tougher schedule
  3. They didn't play each other
  4. They both beat LSU...FSU by 3 scores, Bama by 2, but margin doesn't count
  5. FSU's starting QB is out, Bama's is not.
Based on this criteria, it's Bama over FSU if there is a case to be made that both teams have"similar records". The main issue here is 13-0 vs. 12-1. In any case, if Bama is in, Texas must be in, leaving out uga.
 

GT33

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roadkill said:
The main issue here is 13-0 vs. 12-1. In any case, if Bama is in, Texas must be in, leaving out uga.
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Last I checked 13 was bigger than 12 but I didn't do the Sesame St thing so maybe that's new math. I took the regular old math back in the day.
 
roadkill

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GT33 said:
Last I checked 13 was bigger than 12 but I didn't do the Sesame St thing so maybe that's new math. I took the regular old math back in the day.
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You are correct in that 13 is bigger than 12. But are they similar?
 

CEB

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InsideLB said:
I would like to see Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama.

Probably the best 4 are Michigan, Washington, Ohio St, and one of either Alabama/Georgia.

FSU if they had Travis would be a lock. But I don't see them competing well without him. It is what it is.
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The whole point of a playoff is to decide it on the field. The moment we start stacking the deck because we think we don’t like the on field result or because we think we know a future result, it is no longer a playoff. It’s the “Annual College Football Post season Jamboree.”
 
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GT33

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roadkill said:
You are correct in that 13 is bigger than 12. But are they similar?
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The 13 conference is 6-4 against the 12 conference. Those numbers lie also? You'd think the NFL minor league would be able to do better against the most rank of all the ranked conferences.
 
RonJohn

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roadkill said:
You are correct in that 13 is bigger than 12. But are they similar?
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You are correct, they are most definitely not similar. FSU wasn't tied at half time with a 6-6 USF team. FSU wasn't losing the game with 30 seconds left to a 6-6 Auburn team. When you look at the actual games, sometimes it just sticks out that teams aren't dominant they way they used to be.
 

GT33

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RonJohn said:
You are correct, they are most definitely not similar. FSU wasn't tied at half time with a 6-6 USF team. FSU wasn't losing the game with 30 seconds left to a 6-6 Auburn team. When you look at the actual games, sometimes it just sticks out that teams aren't dominant they way they used to be.
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This is all ridiculous. All undefeated P5 Conferences Champions unless there are 5 should have automatic berths in the playoff. Teams with 1 loss should have head to head done. If multple teams have 1 loss mom-Conference Champions should be eliminated, it's head to head in that remaining group if they played each other, next should go to common opponents, then the mythical strength of schedule.

Let's see, there's 5 P5 Conference Champions. 3 have zero losses, 2 have a loss & low and behold they played each other. Pretty damn simple except now we want a roster review for player health. Where did that come from? Never existed until the SEC is about to be shut out of the playoffs. Why is that?
 
GTJake

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And what about geography for TV $$$ ? If FSU is in the Southeast is covered, Michigan covers the Midwest, Washington covers the West. Both UGAG and Alabama are in the SE, so maybe it'll be Texas who would cover the Southwest. The National map would be covered except for the NE ... TV ratings would soar.
 
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