CFP Discussion

[leatherneckjacket]

I don't doubt the media bias. I also don't doubt that if the SEC gets left out the media will howl. The playoff committee likely doesn't care what the media says. The difference is that for the first time in a while there is a legit chance that the SEC will not have a team in the top 4. It's a small chance, but it's a very real chance. If Bama, Washington, FSU and Michigan win then the SEC is likely out of the playoff picture. If Bama and FSU win, and one of either Washington or Michigan loses, then maybe Bama sneaks in.

I think you are overestimating the objectivity of the committee members. I would put the probability of the SEC being left out of the playoffs at .1%. If Bama wins, they will jump over FSU.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Scenario 1: Michigan, FSU, Uga, Washington and Texas all win. Michigan, FSU, uga, and Washington in playoffs.

Scenario 2: same as 1, but Oregon wins, then Oregon replaces Washington.

Scenario 3: Same as 1 or 2, but Bama wins, then Michigan, Washington/Oregon winner, Bama and Texas

Scenario 4: Same as 1 or 2, but FSU loses, Texas replaces FSU

Scenario 5: Same as 3, but both FSU and Texas lose, then Michigan, Washington/Oregon winner, Bama and uga

Scenario 6: Same as 1 or 2, but Michigan, FSU, and Texas all lose, then Michigan, Uga, Washington/Oregon winner and Ohio State

Michigan makes it in every other scenario in which they lose.

 

[Thwg777]

F$U / UL line just cruised through -3 with no resistance and now sits at -2.5. I’d be surprised if it goes any lower since it’s an excellent arbitrage opportunity for anyone that got UL +10 a couple weeks ago.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I think you are overestimating the objectivity of the committee members. I would put the probability of the SEC being left out of the playoffs at .1%. If Bama wins, they will jump over FSU.

IMO it's the opposite. I think that people here are over emphasizing the noise coming from the media. There is still a good chance that the SEC stays home this year.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

IMO it's the opposite. I think that people here are over emphasizing the noise coming from the media. There is still a good chance that the SEC stays home this year.

The SEC is averaging over 1.2 teams per playoff. The noise in the media is reflected in the teams selected. The SEC will have a team in the playoffs.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

Alabama was damn lucky to win at Auburn and really got outplayed. Georgia was 25-point favorite against us, and we took it to them pretty good. Running the ball down their vaunted defenses throat and coming within one possession of possibly tying the game. Now if Alabama beats UGA and Texas beats Okla. State, the committee will have no choice but to select Texas over Alabama since Texas beat them head-to-head. Now this would be a glorious outcome. The SEC shut out of the playoffs. ESPN will try to find a loophole to get an SEC team in but if the follow the written selection criteria under my scenario this can and will happen. I am assuming Michigan and Washington win their games as well.

Go Jackets!

 

[stinger78]

Alabama was damn lucky to win at Auburn and really got outplayed. Georgia was 25-point favorite against us, and we took it to them pretty good. Running the ball down their vaunted defenses throat and coming within one possession of possibly tying the game. Now if Alabama beats UGA and Texas beats Okla. State, the committee will have no choice but to select Texas over Alabama since Texas beat them head-to-head. Now this would be a glorious outcome. The SEC shut out of the playoffs. ESPN will try to find a loophole to get an SEC team in but if the follow the written selection criteria under my scenario this can and will happen. I am assuming Michigan and Washington win their games as well.

Go Jackets!

We get that onside kick at the end with over 2:00 left and their sphincters would have been puckering big time. A good friend of mine, who is a mutt, said that the last team with the ball was going to win.

 

[RonJohn]

.....The SEC shut out of the playoffs.....

They found a way to get 4-5 teams in the playoffs every year starting next year. I am sure that the SEC realized they were eventually going to be left out of a four team playoff. They were against expanded playoffs, then (it appears) when they knew they were going to add Texas and Oklahoma, they pushed hard for the expanded playoffs with very loose selection criteria past the first six teams.

 

[roadkill]

Scenario 1: Michigan, FSU, Uga, Washington and Texas all win. Michigan, FSU, uga, and Washington in playoffs.

Scenario 2: same as 1, but Oregon wins, then Oregon replaces Washington.

Scenario 3: Same as 1 or 2, but Bama wins, then Michigan, Washington/Oregon winner, Bama and Texas

Scenario 4: Same as 1 or 2, but FSU loses, Texas replaces FSU

Scenario 5: Same as 3, but both FSU and Texas lose, then Michigan, Washington/Oregon winner, Bama and uga

Scenario 6: Same as 1 or 2, but Michigan, FSU, and Texas all lose, then Michigan, Uga, Washington/Oregon winner and Ohio State

Michigan makes it in every other scenario in which they lose.

Agree with your thinking on this. The only case where I think it could go differently is Scenario 3 where FSU crushes L'ville and Texas ekes out a close one to win their conference. The committee might think 13-0 FSU deserves to be in over 12-1 Texas. But your scenario is more likely.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

They are fine. No matter what happens this weekend, at least one will make the playoff. Bet on it.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, here are the CFP resumes for the 7 teams I think are in contention for a spot.
UGA - wins #9 Missou, #11 Ole Miss, #21 TN(@), remaining game #8 AL
Mich - wins #6 Oh ST, #10 Penn St(@), remaining game #16 Iowa
Wash - wins #5 OR, #15 AZ(@), #20 OR ST(@), remaining game #5 OR
FSU - wins #13 LSU(N), #23 Clemson(@), remaining game #14 L'ville
OR - wins #20 OR ST, loss #3 Wash(@), remaining game #3 WA
TX - wins #8 AL(@), #25 K ST, loss #12 OK(N), remaining game #18 OK St
AL - wins #11 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, #21 TN, loss #7 TX, remaining game #1 UGA

The best win is either TX @AL or Wash against OR.
Wash and FSU are the only teams with more than 1 road/neutral win.
AL is the only team without a road/neutral win.
Nobody has a loss to a team ranked lower than 12th.

There has never been a CFP with 4 undefeated teams. Will their be chaos this weekend or will we have the most chalky CFP for what has been one of the most chalky seasons ever in college football.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Michigan moves to No. 2, Florida State returns to field in new top 25

The penultimate top 25 rankings of the 2023 season have arrived from the CFP Selection Committee

www.cbssports.com

Some analysis of the current rankings from Jerry Palm.

"Do not get too worked up over where teams are right now. The CFP Rankings are not a poll. There are no conference champions yet, and the committee has a preference for conference champions in the playoff. That said, it is not intended to be strictly a tournament of champions. That is more of a tiebreaker, per se.

Another factor that the committee takes to heart is head-to-head results, especially involving one-loss teams. We have seen Texas ahead of Alabama all season in part because of the Longhorns' win in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It's also the best win any team has this season, and that will still be true on Sunday. The committee has been consistent all season with the relative placement of those teams. Alabama beating Georgia, should that happen, is unlikely to change that.

One more thing to keep in mind is that the committee does not care about the history of these programs or their conferences in this event. Their job is to evaluate these teams based on what they have done this season. That's it."


If you want to see UGA left out I think the road to that would be the following
Mich and FSU win.
AL beats UGA by a solid margin.oops up on OSU.
If all that happened then I think the final four would be Mich, WA/OR winner - preference would be Wash as they would be undefeated, FSU, TX.
That is probably the only scenario where UGA would fail to make the CFP at this point.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

FWIW, here are the CFP resumes for the 7 teams I think are in contention for a spot.
UGA - wins #9 Missou, #11 Ole Miss, #21 TN(@), remaining game #8 AL
Mich - wins #6 Oh ST, #10 Penn St(@), remaining game #16 Iowa
Wash - wins #5 OR, #15 AZ(@), #20 OR ST(@), remaining game #5 OR
FSU - wins #13 LSU(N), #23 Clemson(@), remaining game #14 L'ville
OR - wins #20 OR ST, loss #3 Wash(@), remaining game #3 WA
TX - wins #8 AL(@), #25 K ST, loss #12 OK(N), remaining game #18 OK St
AL - wins #11 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, #21 TN, loss #7 TX, remaining game #1 UGA

The best win is either TX @AL or Wash against OR.
Wash and FSU are the only teams with more than 1 road/neutral win.
AL is the only team without a road/neutral win.
Nobody has a loss to a team ranked lower than 12th.

There has never been a CFP with 4 undefeated teams. Will their be chaos this weekend or will we have the most chalky CFP for what has been one of the most chalky seasons ever in college football.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Michigan moves to No. 2, Florida State returns to field in new top 25

The penultimate top 25 rankings of the 2023 season have arrived from the CFP Selection Committee

www.cbssports.com

Some analysis of the current rankings from Jerry Palm.

"Do not get too worked up over where teams are right now. The CFP Rankings are not a poll. There are no conference champions yet, and the committee has a preference for conference champions in the playoff. That said, it is not intended to be strictly a tournament of champions. That is more of a tiebreaker, per se.

Another factor that the committee takes to heart is head-to-head results, especially involving one-loss teams. We have seen Texas ahead of Alabama all season in part because of the Longhorns' win in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It's also the best win any team has this season, and that will still be true on Sunday. The committee has been consistent all season with the relative placement of those teams. Alabama beating Georgia, should that happen, is unlikely to change that.

One more thing to keep in mind is that the committee does not care about the history of these programs or their conferences in this event. Their job is to evaluate these teams based on what they have done this season. That's it."


If you want to see UGA left out I think the road to that would be the following
Mich and FSU win.
AL beats UGA by a solid margin.oops up on OSU.
If all that happened then I think the final four would be Mich, WA/OR winner - preference would be Wash as they would be undefeated, FSU, TX.
That is probably the only scenario where UGA would fail to make the CFP at this point.

In your scenario, I think both Texas and Bama leapfrog FSU. The committee has them 4th and I imagine they would take the SEC winner over them regardless if FSU is undefeated and Bama is not. Since they would have Texas above Bama, both get in over FSU.

 

[Ash]

There is no way the SEC Champ is not in the CFP.

 

[RamblinRed]

In your scenario, I think both Texas and Bama leapfrog FSU. The committee has them 4th and I imagine they would take the SEC winner over them regardless if FSU is undefeated and Bama is not. Since they would have Texas above Bama, both get in over FSU.

I'll disagree on that one.
If Mich, FSU, TX and AL all win - FSU gets in. No way the committee is going to leave out a 13-0 conference champ that has 3 road/neutral wins over CFP Top 25 opponents.
I think Bama would actually be the one left out in that scenario.

FWIW, the Colley Bias Free rankings rank the conference as PAC, B1G, SEC, ACC, B12 this season. This is not a "normal" SEC season. SEC is 2-1 vs PAC, 1-2 vs B12 and 4-6 vs ACC.

 

[UgaBlows]

IMO it's the opposite. I think that people here are over emphasizing the noise coming from the media. There is still a good chance that the SEC stays home this year.

There is zero chance of that, zero.

 

[RamblinRed]

I also wanted to add that after reading an article I think there is 1 scenario (and only 1) where Ohio St could get in to the CFP.
UGA has to beat AL
Mich has to beat Iowa
Wash has to beat OR
L'ville has to beat FSU
OK St has to beat TX

If all those things happen then it is likely that you would have UGA, Mich, Wash and Oh St as the 4 teams in the CFP.

If all those things happen TX and OR both have 2 losses and FSU has one loss and none are conference champs. Would be pretty easy to slide Oh St into that last slot at that point as their only loss would be to the #2 team on the road and they would have 2 other Top 20 wins.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I'll disagree on that one.
If Mich, FSU, TX and AL all win - FSU gets in. No way the committee is going to leave out a 13-0 conference champ that has 3 road/neutral wins over CFP Top 25 opponents.
I think Bama would actually be the one left out in that scenario.

FWIW, the Colley Bias Free rankings rank the conference as PAC, B1G, SEC, ACC, B12 this season. This is not a "normal" SEC season. SEC is 2-1 vs PAC, 1-2 vs B12 and 4-6 vs ACC.

We shall see. I think both FSU and Bama will win. The question is Texas. If Uga wins or Texas loses, it makes the decision easy. But if FSU, Bama and Texas all win, then the committee either leaves the SEC out of the playoffs, which I do not see happening, or they drop FSU. I would bet on the latter. Six pack, winner's choice.

By the way, th Colley Bias Free rankings has FSU below two one loss teams, Texas and Ohio State. I am just saying.

 

[slugboy]

Maybe I’m succumbing to conspiracy theories, but I feel like all the undefeated teams will be getting a substantial benefit of the doubt from the refs on Saturday.

 

[bobongo]

Maybe I’m succumbing to conspiracy theories, but I feel like all the undefeated teams will be getting a substantial benefit of the doubt from the refs on Saturday.

Maybe you need a new tin foil hat.
In reality, they wouldn't be able to keep a lid on any such conspiracy. One ref talks and it's all over.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I'll disagree on that one.
If Mich, FSU, TX and AL all win - FSU gets in. No way the committee is going to leave out a 13-0 conference champ that has 3 road/neutral wins over CFP Top 25 opponents.
I think Bama would actually be the one left out in that scenario.

FWIW, the Colley Bias Free rankings rank the conference as PAC, B1G, SEC, ACC, B12 this season. This is not a "normal" SEC season. SEC is 2-1 vs PAC, 1-2 vs B12 and 4-6 vs ACC.

I will add that there is a HUGE gap between the top three conferences, PAC, B1G, and the SEC, and the ACC in the Colley conference rankings. It is large enough to justify taking a one loss conference champion in any of the top 3 over an undefeated ACC champ.

The same would be true for the B12, except Texas beat Bama which gives them immunity for their conference loss if Bama beats Uga.