CFP Discussion

orientalnc

orientalnc

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FSU survived the Duke threat when Duke QB Leonard reinjured his ankle in the Red Zone. But they survived and do not play another ranked team until the ACCCG. It looks like their opponent will UNC or Louisville. It looks like neither of them will be in the CFP even if they are ACC champions.

The SEC got interesting. Tennessee's loss to Bama pretty much takes them out of the SECCG unless something crazy happens. uga plays Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and the Vols the next four weeks. And they will be doing it without their Heisman candidate. That's just in the SEC East. Bama has the lead in the West right now, but still has LSU coming up. The Tigers have to play Ole Miss, so the possibility of a 3-way tie is real. It's hard to guess who might be in the championship game, much less their status as a CFP team.

The B1G is moving along as expected in the East and Penn State needs to beat Michigan and hope tOSU doesn't. Unless something strange happens, the B1G champ will be in the CFP.

In the B12, Oklahoma eeked out a 2-point win over UCF, but it still looks like the winner of their expected rematch with Texas will be the champion. If it's undefeated OU, they're in the CFP. If Texas wins, they are probably in if they have only one loss.

The PACn got interesting last night as undefeated Washington survived at home against woebegone Arizona State by scoring 12 of their 15 points in the 4th quarter. Utah pretty much eliminated USC from CFP discussion with a late FG, but lost their star LB Lander Barton for the season. Washington is the only remaining undefeated team in the PAC, but their are three one loss teams, plus USC, who could be in the PACCG.

All that aside, it looks like the CFP will have four of Michigan, uga, tOSU, Washington, FSU, and Oklahoma. At least that's what it looks like this morning.
 
Northeast Stinger

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orientalnc said:
FSU survived the Duke threat when Duke QB Leonard reinjured his ankle in the Red Zone. But they survived and do not play another ranked team until the ACCCG. It looks like their opponent will UNC or Louisville. It looks like neither of them will be in the CFP even if they are ACC champions.

The SEC got interesting. Tennessee's loss to Bama pretty much takes them out of the SECCG unless something crazy happens. uga plays Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss, and the Vols the next four weeks. And they will be doing it without their Heisman candidate. That's just in the SEC East. Bama has the lead in the West right now, but still has LSU coming up. The Tigers have to play Ole Miss, so the possibility of a 3-way tie is real. It's hard to guess who might be in the championship game, much less their status as a CFP team.

The B1G is moving along as expected in the East and Penn State needs to beat Michigan and hope tOSU doesn't. Unless something strange happens, the B1G champ will be in the CFP.

In the B12, Oklahoma eeked out a 2-point win over UCF, but it still looks like the winner of their expected rematch with Texas will be the champion. If it's undefeated OU, they're in the CFP. If Texas wins, they are probably in if they have only one loss.

The PACn got interesting last night as undefeated Washington survived at home against woebegone Arizona State by scoring 12 of their 15 points in the 4th quarter. Utah pretty much eliminated USC from CFP discussion with a late FG, but lost their star LB Lander Barton for the season. Washington is the only remaining undefeated team in the PAC, but their are three one loss teams, plus USC, who could be in the PACCG.

All that aside, it looks like the CFP will have four of Michigan, uga, tOSU, Washington, FSU, and Oklahoma. At least that's what it looks like this morning.
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Yep. I still hate it that uga has such an easy glide path and I still contend that there are at least four teams in the ACC that could beat them this year.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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Saw some talking heads discussing the best one loss team and it evolved into a CFP debate. One “expert” said the PAC might get two teams in and the other guy said it could be the BIG. Of course it’s all opinions at this juncture. I would love to see the pups at home after a loss to us.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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Does OU’s loss open the door for another conference getting two in? Don't see how OU gets in with that resume or Washington going 13-0.
 

Root4GT

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Oldgoldandwhite said:
Does OU’s loss open the door for another conference getting two in? Don't see how OU gets in with that resume or Washington going 13-0.
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You have issue with Washington? If they are undefeated they are in. Now only 4 conferences can have an undefeated champion. Who has a better win than beating Oregon that haven’t lost yet?
 

Root4GT

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orientalnc said:
Unless FSU loses they are in the CFP. Right now it looks like two B1G teams and the SEC champ. It could change. The PAC champ could push someone out.
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Is Washington is an undefeated PAC 12 champ they are in period. How anyone doesn’t see that is absurd. Try and explain how an undefeated Washington isn’t in?
 
Augusta_Jacket

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Let me clarify what I posted. As it stands right now, we have undefeated ACC, B1G, $EC, and Pac-12(-10) champion possibilities. If we finish the season with FSU, Washington, uga, and an undefeated B1G champion, then those 4 will be in the CFP. I highly doubt we will be chaos free for the rest of the season which is why I stated that the B1G and possibly the $EC in the scenario I presented as possibilities for two teams.
 
BleedGoldNWhite21

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I’m starting to think things are lining up for the SEC to miss out entirely. Call it a weird hunch, but despite looking less impressive all year, I have this gut feeling that Alabama will beat UGA in the SEC championship. How often does someone beat Saban twice in a row? He lost his last game against them. Let’s say Michigan, Washington and FSU win out and finish undefeated. Now, let’s say Texas wins out. If Texas and Alabama are both one loss teams, regardless of SEC bias, I do not see them picking Alabama over Texas with Texas winning the head to head. Maybe if it was a lesser “named” program, but I think Texas would get the, correctly IMO, edge there.

The most interesting scenario would be if all of that happened except Washington loses a rematch to a 1 loss Oregon team. In that case, would Oregon get in as the champion of what is clearly the best conference this year, or Alabama? Probably Alabama.


I also don’t think my weird hunch regarding UGA and Bama is wishful thinking. I said they would win it all after the Clemson game in ‘21 and early on in ‘22. I just really think Saban beats them.
 

yeti92

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BleedGoldNWhite21 said:
I’m starting to think things are lining up for the SEC to miss out entirely. Call it a weird hunch, but despite looking less impressive all year, I have this gut feeling that Alabama will beat UGA in the SEC championship. How often does someone beat Saban twice in a row? He lost his last game against them. Let’s say Michigan, Washington and FSU win out and finish undefeated. Now, let’s say Texas wins out. If Texas and Alabama are both one loss teams, regardless of SEC bias, I do not see them picking Alabama over Texas with Texas winning the head to head. Maybe if it was a lesser “named” program, but I think Texas would get the, correctly IMO, edge there.

The most interesting scenario would be if all of that happened except Washington loses a rematch to a 1 loss Oregon team. In that case, would Oregon get in as the champion of what is clearly the best conference this year, or Alabama? Probably Alabama.


I also don’t think my weird hunch regarding UGA and Bama is wishful thinking. I said they would win it all after the Clemson game in ‘21 and early on in ‘22. I just really think Saban beats them.
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They would pick Alabama over Texas because a loss to Texas is better than a loss to Oklahoma #secMath
 

takethepoints

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orientalnc said:
Unless FSU loses they are in the CFP. Right now it looks like two B1G teams and the SEC champ. It could change. The PAC champ could push someone out.
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I agree and I think FSU has an good chance to win against that lineup. I will depend on who plays Ugag first. If it is Michigan/OSU, then there's a good chance that the Dwags will be eliminated. I don't think FSU could beat Ugag, but they could beat Michigan/OSU and, if they get in, Washington.

Btw, I hated writing this. I have only contempt for the Crimnoles.
 

CEB

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There are five undefeated teams in the top 5 and two of them play each other. “Win and in” applies to all of them.

That said, OSU / Mich could play twice. What could also be fun… how about Michigan losing to PSU, then beating OSU. All three with one loss in conference and someone gets left out of the championship. That someone is probably the most likely to sneak into CFP if any of the other undefeated stumble.

Washington has a really tough three game stretch coming… then a rivalry game… then probably Oregon again. I am not sold on them really making noise in the CFP yet, but there would be zero doubt they earned a spot if they run that table. I don’t see them doing it… and Oregon looks like a buzz saw. I think Washington is a two loss team with no conf championship. A 1 loss Oregon would be pretty compelling, but I suspect overlooked.

FSU has their best chance to lose this weekend, I think. They will not lose to Miami and they will not lose to Florida but they might be just flat enough to lose at Pitt. They might also survive the loss if they win out. But not if Washington runs the table.

Big 12 hopes took a big hit. Texas has to run the table and hope Bama does too. They also need FSU or Wash to lose. Wouldn’t hurt for the big ten champ to have a loss also
 
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