CFP Discussion

[tomknight]

Way too early predictions but;
mutts, FSU, Texas, and one of PSU/Mich/OhSt will have to lose their way out.
Clemson, Bama, and several others can’t afford another loss. Good year for ND to be in the ACC. Don't see them getting in otherwise.

So you're assuming the late season loss on Thanksgiving weekend doesn't really hurt ugag's cfp campaign.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Obviously we all hate the mutts here, but you guys are in denial if you think a 12-1 mutts team isn’t getting in the playoff if there aren’t four other undefeated teams. They are the two-time defending champs. That will give them the benefit of the doubt over their weak schedule against any other 1 loss teams trying to get in.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

So you're assuming the late season loss on Thanksgiving weekend doesn't really hurt ugag's cfp campaign.

Not if they win the SEC. As much as I’d like to see them stay home, they would go as a 2 loss SEC champ.

 

[FredJacket]

Obviously we all hate the mutts here, but you guys are in denial if you think a 12-1 mutts team isn’t getting in the playoff if there aren’t four other undefeated teams. They are the two-time defending champs. That will give them the benefit of the doubt over their weak schedule against any other 1 loss teams trying to get in.

There are scenarios they should be left out as a 1 loss team. All of them involve UGA as a 1 loss SEC runner-up. Quite possible that loss could be to a 2 loss SEC champ (LSU or Alabama). Is UGA going in ahead of the 2 loss SEC champ that just beat them?

Then you could have 0 or 1 loss P5 champs. The ACC/B1G/P12/B12 version of that would have a markedly better resume than UGA. Plus ND... would have a better resume at 12-0 or 11-1.

I hear you on the defending champ thing... but that is nowhere in the criteria/guidance the committee claims they consider. My scenarios above are not assured & not a prediction from me... just a reasonable path where UGA is left out with 1 loss.

 

[cpf2001]

I'd be very curious to see how they judge ND on the "winning championships" part.

1-loss conference champ vs 1-loss conference champ-game loser? Seems pretty clear that they are saying they'd favor the former, not the latter. Probably also over a 1-loss division runner up, then.

But if you didn't have a championship game opportunity? Will they penalize ND specifically there or is it more about trying to keep out runners-up?

 

[TooTall]

ND HAS to be 12-0 and a convincing 12-0. Squeaking by 3 or teams is not good for them.

 

[FredJacket]

I'd be very curious to see how they judge ND on the "winning championships" part.

1-loss conference champ vs 1-loss conference champ-game loser? Seems pretty clear that they are saying they'd favor the former, not the latter. Probably also over a 1-loss division runner up, then.

But if you didn't have a championship game opportunity? Will they penalize ND specifically there or is it more about trying to keep out runners-up?

Depends... if the 1 loss is USC or OSU... ND needs both to win their respective conferences.. then they have win over a P5 champ & single loss v P5 champ. That would be their resume "ceiling" with a loss.

 

[Root4GT]

ND HAS to be 12-0 and a convincing 12-0. Squeaking by 3 or teams is not good for them.

If ND is 12-0 they are in. This is simple!

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

There are scenarios they should be left out as a 1 loss team. All of them involve UGA as a 1 loss SEC runner-up. Quite possible that loss could be to a 2 loss SEC champ (LSU or Alabama). Is UGA going in ahead of the 2 loss SEC champ that just beat them?

Then you could have 0 or 1 loss P5 champs. The ACC/B1G/P12/B12 version of that would have a markedly better resume than UGA. Plus ND... would have a better resume at 12-0 or 11-1.

I hear you on the defending champ thing... but that is nowhere in the criteria/guidance the committee claims they consider. My scenarios above are not assured & not a prediction from me... just a reasonable path where UGA is left out with 1 loss.

In 2016, a one loss Ohio State got in over a two loss Penn State that was both the Big Ten champion and the winner of the head to head matchup between both teams. The committee has shown number of losses is more important than conference championships. Add the fact I mentioned earlier being two time defending champs, I am confident a one loss UGA team gets in even if they lose to a 2-loss SEC Champion.

The only way it doesn’t happen would be if they lost to another one loss SEC team in the championship, but if there are less than three undefeated teams, that might cause two SEC teams to enter like 2017.

A three peat hasn’t happened in 80+ years(or at all, depending on who you ask). History is on our side. Even with a weak schedule, history tells us SOMEONE will get the better of them. Hopefully it’s us and then a second straight loss the next week in the SEC Championship for good measure. Hey, a guy can hope!

 

[FredJacket]

It's early; but I like the conversation....

WHAT IF....
All P5 conference champions end up with 1 (or fewer) loss.

Based on what you have seen to date, which conference is left out of the playoff?
Could any conference runner-up get in leaving 2 conference champs out?
Now... do it if ND is 11-1 (with a win(s) over conf champ OSU and/or conf champ USC)

I feel like this year is going to a ton of fun re playoffs. Fun (to me) is the situation where there 5-7 teams with legit resumes to be a top4 team.

 

[CEB]

It's early; but I like the conversation....

WHAT IF....
All P5 conference champions end up with 1 (or fewer) loss.

Based on what you have seen to date, which conference is left out of the playoff?
Could any conference runner-up get in leaving 2 conference champs out?
Now... do it if ND is 11-1 (with a win(s) over conf champ OSU and/or conf champ USC)

I feel like this year is going to a ton of fun re playoffs. Fun (to me) is the situation where there 5-7 teams with legit resumes to be a top4 team.

In short, i think a 1 loss conf champ from the ACC is out, unless that 1 loss champ is FSU, avenging a loss to someone (maybe Clemson) in the ACCCG. They would probably need LSU to win the SECW, too.

In a way, it feels like the ND / USC game is also an elimination game for either the PAC or ND. If USC beats the Irish, the PAC winner (whether USC, Oregon or Utah) will be elevated and the Irish would likely have two losses. Conversely, an Irish win over USC knocks the PAC down a peg and makes a 1 loss Irish team pretty compelling.

I feel like the Big Ten winner is in, even with 1 loss. A 2 loss Big ten champ gets interesting.
Same for SEC, champ is in, but a two loss champ is interesting.

A Texas sized collapse in the Big 12 would open a spot for ND / PAC / ACC, but I suspect the horns lock it up.

ACC is only in if it’s FSU, unfortunately. No one else moves the needle this year. Clem would have to beat ND and FSU (probably twice) to be a 1 loss conf champ and nothing I’ve seen suggests they can do that.

There are just too many scenarios, but I suspect the BIG and SEC champs are in with a single loss. The one caveat to that is that it looks plausible (if not probable) to have an unbeaten ACC champ (with two SEC wins), and an unbeaten Big 12 champ (with an SEC win). if ND were to somehow run the gauntlet and be undefeated with wins over Big champ OSU and PAC champ USC…. Oh what FUN!

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

If ND is 12-0 they are in. This is simple!

Most likely. But it always depends on the other teams. While I highly doubt more than one team goes undefeated, if 4 conference champs do, ND would be out.

 

[Thwg777]

I’d love to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team excluded from CFP to send them a message that it’s unacceptable to be too prideful from not joining a conference.

But I doubt it would happen.

 

[CEB]

I’d love to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team excluded from CFP to send them a message that it’s unacceptable to be too prideful from not joining a conference.

But I doubt it would happen.

For it to happen, I think you’d need to have a Big Ten champ not named Ohio State and an undefeated PAC champ (which wouldn’t be USC). If ND has wins over Ohio St and USC and either of them win their conferences, you can’t keep Irish out.
But an undefeated Texas and FSU would also help….

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I’d love to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team excluded from CFP to send them a message that it’s unacceptable to be too prideful from not joining a conference.

But I doubt it would happen.

Won't hurt them in the long run anyways. Next year the CFP moves to 12 teams and there will be a lot of conference also rans looking for a spot. A one loss ND team will almost always make the playoffs and a 2 loss ND team will likely be in the conversation depending on the other competing teams.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

I’d love to see a 12-0 Notre Dame team excluded from CFP to send them a message that it’s unacceptable to be too prideful from not joining a conference.

But I doubt it would happen.

I’ve never understood the disdain for ND when it comes to not joining a conference. Unlike GT, they’ve made smart decisions for decades and put themselves in a great position no matter how the future shakes out. Why are folks mad at them for doing what is best for them?

 

[Thwg777]

I’ve never understood the disdain for ND when it comes to not joining a conference. Unlike GT, they’ve made smart decisions for decades and put themselves in a great position no matter how the future shakes out. Why are folks mad at them for doing what is best for them?

It’s as simple as I view them as routinely overrated and can’t help but think some of the overrated-ness comes from the air time they get from talking heads speak about the mysticism of their independence.

And Rudy was offside.

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

It’s as simple as I view them as routinely overrated and can’t help but think some of the overrated-ness comes from the air time they get from talking heads speak about the mysticism of their independence.

And Rudy was offside.

I get all that but don’t you see how they created all that by making smart decisions. I understand not liking them as a school not named Georgia Tech, but everyone acts like all their success in marketing is just given to them. It’s not. They made all that happen by decades of good decision making. Meanwhile, we are upset that our own flagship radio station won’t even discuss us. I agree ND is perennially over rated which makes their marketing job even better in my mind. And they are positioned beautifully for the future. I sure wish GT had parlayed their success in the 1950’s to become in the south what ND became in the Midwest.

 

[Thwg777]

I get all that but don’t you see how they created all that by making smart decisions. I understand not liking them as a school not named Georgia Tech, but everyone acts like all their success in marketing is just given to them. It’s not. They made all that happen by decades of good decision making. Meanwhile, we are upset that our own flagship radio station won’t even discuss us. I agree ND is perennially over rated which makes their marketing job even better in my mind. And they are positioned beautifully for the future. I sure wish GT had parlayed their success in the 1950’s to become in the south what ND became in the Midwest.

In all seriousness, I agree with your points. In my time as a fan 7-5 seasons were bases for being fired; now it’s hard to even fathom getting there. Hell after watching last night’s game, I’m not even convinced we’re the best college team in Atlanta… Since cheering for Tech and whoever’s playing Georgia hasn’t been fulfilling, I’ve switched to full on schadenfreude of teams I dislike.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Is it time to stick a fork in ND because they’re done? They would still have a shot if they were in the ACC. If a one loss Alabama beats an undefeated Gaggers, do they both go? Or two BIG teams if the loser has only one loss. Way too early, but I hope neither happens. Going to be an interesting ride.