Ceiling of the Program

[Vespidae]

Ya know, if you go to a conference championship and bowl, you can get to 10 wins with 3 losses. CPJ did it twice.

Maybe you guys think UNC and Miami are insurmountable competition.

I did financial analysis when I was younger and companies always had to explain why their net earnings were less than their operating earnings.

“Oh”, they would say, “We had special non-recurring issues.” The implication was that if they just fixed that issue, the gap would close.

But it never did. When you have special charges EVERY year, they are no longer special. They’re systemic.

And that’s Tech. Systemic issues happen whether it’s injuries, schedule, grades, whatever ... that prevents the big season.

So perhaps Tech would beat UNC and Miami. Only to lose to ... The Citadel.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Top 25 is 8-4 btw. Which is what I’ve maintained from the git go.

You can’t go 8-4 in a 12 game season unless you’re on NCAA probation.

We beat 3 SEC teams in 2016 and went 9-4 and were unranked. 10-3 is needed for Top 25 ranking. You’re not going to go 8-5 with a single Top 25 win & be ranked ever again.

 

[Madison Grant]

Yeah. I honestly think Auburn is within sight. I know that’s not an opinion most agree with but that to me is who we should be gunning for. We need to get to the point that we win our fair share of recruiting battles against them. They wore us out this year but we did go head to head for many recruits.

Yeah, you get the wails of "But they have more faaans!" Miami and USC, two urban schools, have done great without 'SEC' attendance. There is a sell for kids who want the cosmopolitan city experience in college. Name another city besides Atlanta that is begging to host a big time college football team? Man, I love and respect Bobby Dodd and our history as a program, but evolve and think forward. I feel like Lee Iaccoca trying to argue over Leo Beebe in Ford v Ferrari.

 

[Vespidae]

You can’t go 8-4 in a 12 game season unless you’re on NCAA probation.

We beat 3 SEC teams in 2016 and went 9-4 and were unranked. 10-3 is needed for Top 25 ranking. You’re not going to go 8-5 with a single Top 25 win & be ranked ever again.

Last time I checked, 8 +4 = 12. I wasn’t counting bowl games, but ok ... 9-4.

 

[HouseDivided]

Ya know, if you go to a conference championship and bowl, you can get to 10 wins with 3 losses. CPJ did it twice.

Maybe you guys think UNC and Miami are insurmountable competition.

Never said that, so spare me the strawman please. We are coming off a 3-9 season with very little positives and need a whole lot of help in key areas that will take some time to translate into results. That's not to say there isn't anything to be positive about however.

 

[Vespidae]

Yeah, you get the wails of "But they have more faaans!" Miami and USC, two urban schools, have done great without 'SEC' attendance. There is a sell for kids who want the cosmopolitan city experience in college. Name another city besides Atlanta that is begging to host a big time college football team? Man, I love and respect Bobby Dodd and our history as a program, but evolve and think forward. I feel like Lee Iaccoca trying to argue over Leo Beebe in Ford v Ferrari.

A strong fan base is important for fundraising and merchandising.

 

[Southpawmac]

You can’t go 8-4 in a 12 game season unless you’re on NCAA probation.

We beat 3 SEC teams in 2016 and went 9-4 and were unranked. 10-3 is needed for Top 25 ranking. You’re not going to go 8-5 with a single Top 25 win & be ranked ever again.

USCw and OK St. are 8-4 in the top 25 right now. If they win they won’t drop out. So 10-3 isn’t necessary. This is also with the strongest group of five field ever. I agree 8-5 wouldn’t be top 25.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Last time I checked, 8 +4 = 12. I wasn’t counting bowl games, but ok ... 9-4.

8+4 indeed equals 12, but again you play 13 games unless you’re on probation. 9 wins would be outside the Top 10, 2016 is a recent example of that.

If GT does not win 10 games and probably beat 2 Top 25 teams, well our chances of being ranked are slim.

 

[Madison Grant]

Never said that, so spare me the strawman please. We are coming off a 3-9 season with very little positives and need a whole lot of help in key areas that will take some time to translate into results. That's not to say there isn't anything to be positive about however.

We survived a transition in which we had ZERO OL and QBs who were fits to run our offense. On top of that, we got SCORCHED by injuries, almost the level CPJ faced in 2015. And yet, we have the #19 ranked recruiting class according to Rivals. If everyone signs who is expected eventually (may be February for at least one), we'll finish around 25. That is an important positive.

 

[Madison Grant]

Never said that, so spare me the strawman please. We are coming off a 3-9 season with very little positives and need a whole lot of help in key areas that will take some time to translate into results. That's not to say there isn't anything to be positive about however.

Actually the strawman is yours. You're trying to argue about where we were this year, and the thread is entitled 'Ceiling of the Program'.

 

[HouseDivided]

We survived a transition in which we had ZERO OL and QBs who were fits to run our offense. On top of that, we got SCORCHED by injuries, almost the level CPJ faced in 2015. And yet, we have the #19 ranked recruiting class according to Rivals. If everyone signs who is expected eventually (may be February for at least one), we'll finish around 25. That is an important positive.

Agreed there. Lots to improve upon. We got our work cut out for us but thankfully GC has the energy and passion to see if through!

 

[Boaty1]

A strong fan base is important for fundraising and merchandising.

True, as is local talent.

 

[HouseDivided]

Actually the strawman is yours. You're trying to argue about where we were this year, and the thread is entitled 'Ceiling of the Program'.

No. I commented on a post directly related to this year. The thread took a turn from the original intent many posts ago lol.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Since we joined the ACC we have been a borderline top 25 program. I believe we should expect to return to that as these last 5 years have been a disaster.

We have a lot of resources here. I think Collins is doing a solid job selling this program a can return us to a consistent threat to win the division. I don’t see any reason why we can’t consistently recruit in the top 20 once we start to field competitive teams.

Our biggest advantage over UVA, Virginia Tech, Duke, and UNC is our location. The emphasis on the 404 is valid given the tremendous number of quality recruits within 50 miles of the campus. Unfortunately, 5 stars and many 4 stars who are only interested in showcasing their talent for the NFL are not going to be interested in Tech. I believe our ceiling as the OP put it is top 25 with an occasional exceptional year into the top 10 but even this is only possible with more support form the Hill and a consistent influx of talent like what we had in 2007. It is vital that we get a quarterback that can run this offense and put pressure on defenses. He will have to be a very special talent akin to Joe Ham. The opportunity is there for someone to establish a mini dynasty controlling the Coastal. Will it be UNC? Miami? Why not us?

 

[HouseDivided]

Hopefully what GC does is hone in on the fact that many kids around metro Atlanta have no ties to UGA or any top program around the southeast. We have become a very transient metro area and we can use that to our advantage.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

5 straight top 25 seasons with a top 10 finish is what the last 5 years of the O’Leary years were. With the way he had us recruiting there was no reason to believe we were going anywhere.

With the way Collins has recruited in his first year it seems we are heading in the right direction. This is the way we SHOULD recruit but one hads to believe in the program to get these results. Thank God we have someone who does believe in what this program can be. I wish more of our fans would get on board because this negative mindset does have an impact on our program.

A negative mindset does indeed have an influence, however subtle it may be, on the public and recruit perception of a football program. What also has an influence are losing seasons. One or two should not matter as long as the perception remains that the program is improving through recruiting and player development. After year two or so, the wins must start coming. Willie T did not even get two years at FSU and is now banished to the Outer Mongolia of Florida Atlantic. I don't think that will happen to Coach Collins but impatient fan bases are a constant bane to athletic directors. All that said, I would rather be in our shoes than say Rice, Kansas, or even Vanderbilt. All programs best known as perennial homecoming opponents. Many of our fans suffer from negative mindsets, there are a lot of fan bases that if they were mental patients they would be diagnosed as manic depressive or suicidal.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Gailey won between 7-9. I don’t think Chan Gailey represents our ceiling.

Chan should be close to our floor given the talent that abounds in metro Atlanta.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Avg wins are a bit deceiving with the extra game (plus championship games) now than when O’Leary coached. Our regular season win percentages for our last 3 coaches are:

George O’Leary: .612
Chan Gailey: .579
Paul Johnson: .580

If the current coaching staff can keep recruiting this way there is no reason they shouldn’t be striving to beat O’Leary’s win percentage. Per Rivals we’ve only been better than 39 once since 2002. Right now we are #19 on Rivals. Better players should yield a higher ceiling for the program. I’m enjoying it for now but they will have to prove it on the field.

Only one recruiting class since 2002 have we been better than 39th? Seems about right and that was the class of 2007. Actually makes our success under Coaches Johnson and Gailey an outlier of sorts. Georgia Tech probably gets about as much out of its limited talent as any program in the country with but few exceptions such as Wisconsin. Other programs are the opposite: Tennessee, Texas, and Miami have been where talent goes to die although Texas is doing much better lately. We should be able to get the talent and develop it to where we can do better than O'Leary, Gailey and Johnson did.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

Atlanta metro in 1962 didn't have 1/5th of the population it does now, or 1/10th of the local football talent. Glad CGC has more vision than you guys stuck in the past.

No it did not. Georgia as a whole was not a great state for football talent which is why UGA struggled some in those years. Dodd was adept at getting players, really good players mind you, out of Tennessee, Alabama, Florida and even Mississippi. No need for that now. We have plenty of talent right here in the 404 and a little bit down here in the 229 as well. The only question I have is whether or not we need to cast a wider net for linemen. I suspect that we do and should devote recruiting resources accordingly.

 

[WreckinGT]

First there is a big difference between saying we should average 7 wins a season and saying we should win 10 every season. Probably some middle ground in there that should be our expectations.

Yeah, I shouldn’t have stated a range in the beginning. It confused things. If I were to pick a yearly win total as our ceiling I go back and forth between 8-4 and 9-3. So I’ll just say 8.5 wins average is around our ceiling with a coach who excels in recruiting and coaching. My response there was to someone who claimed winning 10 games consistently is achievable and I simply disagree with that.