Bracketology - Let's Do This
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CINCYMETJACKET
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Just put me in the tournament, and we'll go from there. ACC POY, ACC DEF POY. They're seniors, so they know what's at stake. Just want them to go out and do their thing.
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We inched up ahead of UNC into 30th in KenPom and 37th in NET. That would imply a 7-9 seed. Lets win a couple games and skip the 8/9 seeds please and thank you.
RyanS12
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If we get sent home tomorrow then I think we end up at worst a 12 seed. Most likely an 11 which is probably the most favorable spot. Win Thursday w/ Friday loss - 9/10 seed. Win Thur and Friday w/ a Sat finals loss - 7-9 seed. Win the entire acc tournament - 5-6 seed
I’m a big fan of the 6/11 seed. Those two spots have a better shot at making a Sweet 16 run. Especially this year. There’s not a lot of separation from GT and what I’ve seen projected at the 3 and 6 seeds.
Whatever happens, I just hope we get at least one win in Gboro to keep the positive momentum going and at least one in the NCAA Tournament. I’d hate for us to finally get back to the big dance and exit day one.....
I’m a big fan of the 6/11 seed. Those two spots have a better shot at making a Sweet 16 run. Especially this year. There’s not a lot of separation from GT and what I’ve seen projected at the 3 and 6 seeds.
Whatever happens, I just hope we get at least one win in Gboro to keep the positive momentum going and at least one in the NCAA Tournament. I’d hate for us to finally get back to the big dance and exit day one.....
305jacket
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Obviously 1st round win % is higher for 8/9 than 10/11/12, but that 2nd round win % is much better for the group of 10/11/12.
As many have said, I think best case we get the "top" 11 seed, and matchup against a soft 6 seed and a beatable 3-seed. A 10 seed wouldn't be terrible, but there is a big drop-off this year between 2 seeds and 3 seeds I think. Really want to matchup against a 3 to get to sweet 16.
As many have said, I think best case we get the "top" 11 seed, and matchup against a soft 6 seed and a beatable 3-seed. A 10 seed wouldn't be terrible, but there is a big drop-off this year between 2 seeds and 3 seeds I think. Really want to matchup against a 3 to get to sweet 16.
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Clemson is ranked higher than us in their ratings, so a loss (unless its by 20 points and we just look awful) won't matter.
tsrich
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I think it could drop us into the playin game. We're not much above that right now.
Sucks that two 11s play in that round.
Northeast Stinger
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Just for fun, when we get to the big dance, assuming the right breaks, how far could the Jackets go? Sweet 16? Elite 8? Final Four?
Yes, I know we could get knocked out in the first game. Yes, realistically we will do well to win one game. But given how crazy this year is, how uneven the field is, and how you can’t account for who will have an off night and who will get hot, how far could Tech run?
Yes, I know we could get knocked out in the first game. Yes, realistically we will do well to win one game. But given how crazy this year is, how uneven the field is, and how you can’t account for who will have an off night and who will get hot, how far could Tech run?
D-man44
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Impossible to know before we see the bracket. If tech ends up a 9 in Gonzaga’s bracket well it’ll be over fast if you are an 11 and Nova gets the 3 in that region maybe a sweet 16. All about matchups
lv20gt
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If we're talking just straight could? Championship. Our defense is good enough where it should be able to do reasonably well against most teams. Obvious some bad match ups always exist but if you can avoid those.... Offensively, we can score from all 3 levels, and generate points off defense. If the three ball is falling we can compete with nearly any team. So with the help of a couple other upsets, and us going on a hot streak shooting, it's possible.
At all likely? No. More realistic I think we can understand losing game 1, expect to win 1 game, and have a reasonable hope for making the sweet 16. Anything beyond that could happen but isn't really a justifiable position to expect.
305jacket
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Sweet 16 is a great achievement, just having a whole week of knowing we won 2 games and have the anticipation to the 2nd weekend would be incredible. Elite 8 is likely our ceiling. I personally expect to win 1 game, we are a good team and should matchup very even (toss-up) with a 6-7 seed. 2nd game will determine how the season should be judged ...
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JacketRacket
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Northeast Stinger
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Yeah, but my question was premised on “the right breaks,” and I was not asking for a prediction just a “what our the limits of a what-if run?”
I think under the right breaks, and I mean EVERYTHING going right, we make the final four. I think with everything going perfectly final four is as far as we could get.
If we get no breaks it’s one and done obviously.
lv20gt
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FWIW here is who UCONN faced on their run to the championship as a 3 seed but with us having to play a 6 in the first round (assuming we got a 11 seed) that difference is playing a 3 rather than a 14. Harder path, but nothing that makes it from it was done to can't be done. The important thing is more the path after SDSU.
14 - Bucknell
6 - Cinci
2 - SDSU
5 - Arizona
4 Kentucky
8 - Butler.
Miracle run, but some miracle luck. If those types of breaks go your way just about any team COULD win a championship (combined with getting hot themselves along the way).
14 - Bucknell
6 - Cinci
2 - SDSU
5 - Arizona
4 Kentucky
8 - Butler.
Miracle run, but some miracle luck. If those types of breaks go your way just about any team COULD win a championship (combined with getting hot themselves along the way).
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Just curious. We have an experienced (and quality) backcourt and the ACC POY inside. obviously we are great when we we are on from 3 point. But what kind of team/style of play WOULD be a bad matchup for us. An uptempo/pressing team that goes 8-9 players deep? Obviously we have gotten beat deep in the tourney by long, athletic teams like UConn or UNLV long ago, but those types of teams were bad matchups for all teams obviously as they were tourney champs. As a casual fan, I am extremely curious as to what TYPES of teams or styles of play do you NOT want to see us play. Let's exclude the #1 or #2 teams by default. I do think we are a type of team with the pieces to do damage providing we don't go cold in any game.
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I think that’s why we had trouble with FSU; uptempo, full court press, deep rotation gassed us
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That and everyone on their bench was 5”+ whoever we put on them to guard them.
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This could get really interesting. The ACC could have all 4 of the first 4 out. Clemson and Louisville and North Carolina are just inside the line and Duke and Syracuse can inch closer to it if they keep going and win a couple.
lv20gt
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IMO in basketball, styles are less about advantages over each other compared to football for a variety of reasons but mostly because in football, you can call designed plays a lot more often, where basketball is more concept oriented and you don't have nearly as much control over what's going on as a coach. For instance, our style this year is a turnover forcing style to try and get some transition points and build energy and momentum. IMO UVA is somewhat the opposite. They want to play more half court, more methodical and make the game less about emotion and energy and more about precision and discipline. BTW this is a very oversimplification so before you bring up that we are very disciplined on defense I agree but painting in broad strokes.
I don't think either style has an advantage over the others. It's a matter of who can force the issue into their style. I think GT and UVA are mutually bad match ups because both are really good at preventing things that the other one usually wants to do.
Instead I think you need to look individual aspects that would give our team trouble. The big one to me is a team with a truly great center. The ACC this year has a lot of really good forwards, Moses, Hurt, Aluma, Hauser, Champagnie, Sims, Guerrier, etc. But few have truely great centers. Huff is about the only one that comes to mind and he doesn't really assert himself in the way some other guys do. And I think that dynamic is why we have been able to get away with going small as our base thing. So a team like BYU with Haarms could really make it hard for Moses to do his thing. Then you could also look at Jose. A team that has a threat that really quires Jose to deal with can make him extend energy on the defensive end more than normal paired with a good defensive guard to make life hard on the other end can be a bad match up. Its why I think UVA is a bad match up for us. They have Huff to make life hard on Moses, and we want to put Jose on Hauser while they can stick Clark on Jose. Doesn't mean we can't win, but makes it harder to.
IMO the things I would like to avoid are teams with experience guards. I'd MUCH rather go up against Duke with their 5 star freshman guards than against Notre Dame with Hubb and Goodwin. Now overall I'd rather play ND because hurt scares me and Williams down low is a monster in the making, but talking just about guards. I would also like to avoid the aforementioned great centers. I trust Moses against great forwards. True centers scare me. Lastly, I would prefer we avoid grindy teams. Not so much because I think we'd struggle, but because I want to avoid our guys trying to force the issue if they feel the pressure of the tournament.