Bracketology - Let's Do This

CuseJacket

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Perhaps worth putting this near the top of the thread.

For those less familiar with the NCAAT projections and bubblicious talk, one of the best sites to reference is http://bracketmatrix.com/

You'll see where we stack up across a number of major Bracketology projections. What it says right now is, we're about a dozen spots from making the tournament based on the aggregate projection across all of the sites.

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lv20gt

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In all seriousness, with the way we started the season we'll always be playing catchup, and in many people's eyes it's just a matter of waiting for the bubble to pop for us.


This next three game stretch is big. Winning 2 out of the three would do wonders, but winning all three would really generate a level of buzz we haven't had since probably 2010? when we went to the ACC finals.
 

presjacket

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Could Duke miss the tournament if they are eligible? I would imagine the number of TV sets they would command would put them in no matter what.
 

RamblinCharger

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Per usual with Pastner teams we have no room for error. If we win the GAST and Mercer games we are probably firmly in the tournament as a 6-9 seed and sitting at 10-4 right now. Now we have to win about 70% of our remaining games to get in. Really unfortunate that this is the best chance we have had to make the tournament under his watch. Next year we could see a similar team if we have several guys come back, but I would expect another .500 finish next year. Hopefully we can get on a run and win 4 of the next 5 to put us at 12-7, which should give us a shot at making the tourney down the stretch. If we finish 14-9 or 15-8 we could win a game or 2 in the ACCT and probably be in, anything less than 14-9 and losing in the ACCT quickly and we are out.

Are we going to make up the Pitt or NCST games?
 

MidtownJacket

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Per usual with Pastner teams we have no room for error. If we win the GAST and Mercer games we are probably firmly in the tournament as a 6-9 seed and sitting at 10-4 right now. Now we have to win about 70% of our remaining games to get in. Really unfortunate that this is the best chance we have had to make the tournament under his watch. Next year we could see a similar team if we have several guys come back, but I would expect another .500 finish next year. Hopefully we can get on a run and win 4 of the next 5 to put us at 12-7, which should give us a shot at making the tourney down the stretch. If we finish 14-9 or 15-8 we could win a game or 2 in the ACCT and probably be in, anything less than 14-9 and losing in the ACCT quickly and we are out.

Are we going to make up the Pitt or NCST games?
I would hope we are on the horn all day and night with the league doing whatever we can to get Pitt and NCST rebooked. We took it on the chin against UofL now help us out a bit.. c'mon man, we just need some love right?
 

YlJacket

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Curiosity - we lose to #45 Louisville at their place and lose 6 slots to 61.
Duke loses to #162 Miami at their place and loses 4 slots to 66.

I have to admit I don't get the math on that one. Especially since the big losses holding us back are to 114 and 115 GSU and Mercer.
 

CuseJacket

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Curiosity - we lose to #45 Louisville at their place and lose 6 slots to 61.
Duke loses to #162 Miami at their place and loses 4 slots to 66.

I have to admit I don't get the math on that one. Especially since the big losses holding us back are to 114 and 115 GSU and Mercer.
Yea, it's strange. My guess is it probably has as much to do with other teams beyond the four teams you mentioned (how others performed and their SOS/NET was impacted).

There is also a margin of victory variable, though the weighting of that component is not public. Last I saw it is capped at 10 points to avoid teams running up the score. So effectively it looks like we lost to Louisville by 10 whereas Duke lost to Miami by 2. I really have to believe this is one of the more insignificant variables, but it's a thing.
 

GTNavyNuke

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YlJacket

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Again, I don't get the NET rankings/methodology. GT beats #70 ND at home and stays flat at 62. ND loses 2 slots to 72.

Clemson beats #46 Syr at home and gains 7 slots to 47. Syr loses 8 slots to 54.

UNC beats #66 Duke away game and gains 6 slots to #50 while Duke loses 4 to #70.

Fair amount of movement there - especially UNC for beating a team reasonably close to the GT/ND matchup. Hell, FSU and LV both gained 3 slots yesterday and they didn't even play. I don't understand the lack of any movement for GT but I also don't claim to be a NET methodology junkie.
 

GT_EE78

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20% sounds about right.
9 games remaining if if no more makeups.
but only 3 opportunities for quality wins VA,@Clem,@VaTech
maybe Duke if they get their act together
we may need 2of those 3, none are easy but all remaining seem winnable
 

GT_EE78

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Again, I don't get the NET rankings/methodology. GT beats #70 ND at home and stays flat at 62. ND loses 2 slots to 72.

Clemson beats #46 Syr at home and gains 7 slots to 47. Syr loses 8 slots to 54.

UNC beats #66 Duke away game and gains 6 slots to #50 while Duke loses 4 to #70.

Fair amount of movement there - especially UNC for beating a team reasonably close to the GT/ND matchup. Hell, FSU and LV both gained 3 slots yesterday and they didn't even play. I don't understand the lack of any movement for GT but I also don't claim to be a NET methodology junkie.
agree about the NETflix rankings.unfortunately NCAAT uses them.
I always put Drake and Colgate in my top 20,don't you?
 

GT_EE78

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Perhaps worth putting this near the top of the thread.

For those less familiar with the NCAAT projections and bubblicious talk, one of the best sites to reference is http://bracketmatrix.com/

You'll see where we stack up across a number of major Bracketology projections. What it says right now is, we're about a dozen spots from making the tournament based on the aggregate projection across all of the sites.

View attachment 9823
Great link, thanks
who could have even guessed that 93 websites do their own bracketology
great to see we be considered by 3 of them (1 more than Ky)
 

YlJacket

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agree about the NETflix rankings.unfortunately NCAAT uses them.
I always put Drake and Colgate in my top 20,don't you?
Colgate really rubs me the wrong way with this ranking system. Only 7 wins. No OOC wins so everything is in the Patriot league and they have a loss to Army. Ridiculous that they are still at 15 and went up one yesterday without playing. Wouldn't bother me except this is the nonsense the committee is using for who is in/out of the tourney.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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Again, I don't get the NET rankings/methodology. GT beats #70 ND at home and stays flat at 62. ND loses 2 slots to 72.

Clemson beats #46 Syr at home and gains 7 slots to 47. Syr loses 8 slots to 54.

UNC beats #66 Duke away game and gains 6 slots to #50 while Duke loses 4 to #70.

Fair amount of movement there - especially UNC for beating a team reasonably close to the GT/ND matchup. Hell, FSU and LV both gained 3 slots yesterday and they didn't even play. I don't understand the lack of any movement for GT but I also don't claim to be a NET methodology junkie.

I assume that the NET rankings take into account who we have played, as well as what we do today. Warren Nolan's RPI has our non-conference strength of schedule at #306. That's with a win over Kentucky RPI 118/NET 80 and losses at home to Georgia State RPI 59/NET 129 and Mercer RPI 111/NET 127. So those teams lose, we lose. Kentucky lost their last game to Tennessee. Georgia State lost their last game to Appalachian State. And Mercer lost their last game to ETSU. So, unless we beat Virginia, we're going to continuously get hammered by having played teams (and losing to some of them) that keep losing. And that's not to mention the Delaware States of the world...
Colgate really rubs me the wrong way with this ranking system. Only 7 wins. No OOC wins so everything is in the Patriot league and they have a loss to Army. Ridiculous that they are still at 15 and went up one yesterday without playing. Wouldn't bother me except this is the nonsense the committee is using for who is in/out of the tourney.

If Colgate does not win their conference, they will not get an at large bid. So don't worry about Colgate. Worry about the other teams we need to beat on our schedule. And is Colgate's loss to Army really any worse than our losses to Georgia State and Mercer?
 

slugboy

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Great link, thanks
who could have even guessed that 93 websites do their own bracketology
great to see we be considered by 3 of them (1 more than Ky)
The trick to it (to me) is that we're not getting a 13, 14, 15, or 16 seed. Those are going to small conference auto-qualifiers. We need to get ahead of Stanford, Maryland, Colorado State, Seton Hall, and similar teams.
 

YlJacket

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If Colgate does not win their conference, they will not get an at large bid. So don't worry about Colgate. Worry about the other teams we need to beat on our schedule. And is Colgate's loss to Army really any worse than our losses to Georgia State and Mercer?

I am not worried about Colgate per se as I agree they have to win the Patriot League to get in. I am just put off by a system that is supposed to be at least a key metric or "the" key metric for determining who gets into the tourney having Colgate as the #15 team in the country. Makes me wonder how legit the rest of the NET analysis is. Not that I can do anything about it - but having Colgate at #15 with 7 wins and no real legit wins doesn't inspire confidence.
 

g0lftime

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Those two early losses are going to really hurt our chances in the NCAA unless we really win a majority of our remaining games. Those make our record look worse than the caliber of this team.
 

RamblinCharger

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Won the ND game, just have to keep winning. Hopefully we get to reschedule NCST or Pitt that we missed. Maybe NCST since we still have Pitt on the schedule> That would give us 10 games left. At 9-6 we would need to go 7-3 most likely and finish 16-9. 15-10 with 2 ACCT wins might do it too. Need to get every win we can. I know we'd all love to go dancing.
 
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