AlabamaBuzz
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 4,051
- Location
- Hartselle, AL (originally Rome, GA)
Yes, I agree, but for many, they don't understand how few we get, and how much of a difference it can make to have a few.
BjS- am I wrong. He has never played .. Can u say player
- Thread starter iceeater1969
- Start date
Yes, I agree, but for many, they don't understand how few we get, and how much of a difference it can make to have a few.
AlabamaBuzz
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 4,051
- Location
- Hartselle, AL (originally Rome, GA)
It is NOT very hard. By every statistical measure, if you take 100 four star guys at random and 100 three star guys at random, more of the four stars will pan out into good or better college players. That is all I am saying. I'm not saying there isn't a significant amount of mistakes on the 4-star ratings - I am sure 20-40% of them are mistakes. But, with that said, if the 60-80% are correct, that is still better odds.
If 20-40% of the time prevents it from being the "norm", then I guess it is not the norm for a 4-star recruit to make a difference, but I would say that is good enough to call it the "norm".
- Messages
- 8,125
- Location
- Augusta, Georgia
Statistically, you are correct, but projective statistics don't always bear out when dealing with human performance. Again, not saying you are wrong, and I tend to agree with you, I was just asking if you knew of an actual study that shows this. We seem to operate so much on conventional wisdom, and I was just curious if there was an actual study to back said wisdom up.
iceeater1969
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 9,780
Would Alabama count as a study?
On a long term basis they seem to have a lo t o f both wins and hi **** guys? That's a large sample size unless Ala has superior coaching. IMO the players at A make the coaches look good.
I started the thread saying its amazing what a gifted athlete can accomolish and it centered around 12 BjS's game against Virginia.
If his performance is just the start, he will make those around him look good.
alentrekin
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 876
- Location
- California
See also...Dwyer, Morgan, Burnett, JT, Shamire, Parker, Bruce...
- Messages
- 8,125
- Location
- Augusta, Georgia
Again, this is all anecdotal. "It must be true because look at these examples." Again, I think the recruiting ranking are right more often than they are not, but what I was asking is if there was a study done where someone went back and tracked the success rate of athletes based on their recruiting records. How many 5*'s busted in college, or busted in the NFL. I am not arguing that the rankings are wrong, just asking if a scientific study has ever been done.
Techster
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 18,394
Deltajacket
Georgia Tech Fan
- Messages
- 71
According to PJ's radio show last night, the DE's are picked by Pelton based on how they grade out. There's a lot more to it than just how many sacks they get.
Philhutch80
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 221
Justin Thomas also says high. 4 star recruit. Which IMO, if we have a 4 star at QB and a handful of 4 stars on D it dynamically would change our team.
Philhutch80
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 221
That’s a pretty good read right there. Definitely shows the anecdotal ‘proof in the pudding’ at least.
- Messages
- 8,125
- Location
- Augusta, Georgia
In fairness, JeT was a 4* rated CB. Had he been rated by the services as a QB, he wouldn't have been 4*.
That being said, the JeT ranking should put to bed the guys who are arguing that TM is not a pure QB and should be moved back to AB. A good former HS QB with great athleticism can absolutely excel as a QB in our system. I'll take guys like JeT and TM every year.
InsideLB
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,915
Interestingly, there isn't much difference in value between 3 and 4 star based on this article. The big difference is between 4 and 5 and 2 and 3. Yet team rankings are heavily influenced by 3 vs 4 star.
Team rankings are also influenced by # of recruits you can take in a class (attrition is rewarded).
What I draw from this is the top classes that have 5-star guys are likely better classes and the bottom classes that have more 2-star guys are likely poorer classes. But in between these ends of the spectrum things get very murky.
- Messages
- 8,125
- Location
- Augusta, Georgia
Somewhat. I have always agreed that the rankings are more accurate than not, but it really only deals with the NFL draft. I've seen studies on the Pro Bowl/All Pro rosters and their recruiting rankings as high schoolers in the past as well. What I would really like to see is a comprehensive study that details not just draft and NFL awards, but NFL service time, by position, according to rankings. For instance, how many 5* QBs are still in the league after 5 years vs 4*, vs 3*, etc, not just how many get drafted. How many are starting vs getting meaningful minutes vs sitting a bench. I'd like to see if the prevailing wisdom holds true across the board, or if it differs by position. I have a feeling that we would see some positions where 5*s tend to be very successful, and others where 3*s and 4*s tend to hold sway.
Again, I think we all agree on the expected outcome, I'm just thinking that there are some areas where we will find unexpected results, that may help shed a light onto improvements in recruiting philosophies.
Skeptic
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,372
Well, ah, yes.
Philhutch80
Jolly Good Fellow
- Messages
- 221
I agree but it does not put the argument to bed due to TM's below average passing performance this year so far. Overall athletic talent is different than having arm talent as we are seeing with Taquon. Then the biggest difference I see is the 'clutch' or intangibles factor which is impossible to measure. JeT was very clutch period. TM has not found that space yet. I hope he does though! Too bad BJS was not a QB, lol.
Jacketman1
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 601
Was it as a CB? He was listed as an ATH in high school, and I know Bama offered him at CB, but I thought he only played QB in high school and was ranked as such.
- Messages
- 8,125
- Location
- Augusta, Georgia
A difference without much of a distinction. The point still holds he wasn't rated 4* as a QB. His height alone would have dropped him to 3* tops as a QB.
augustabuzz
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 3,412
He committed to UA as a QB.
Em_Jae20
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 3,913
He committed to Alabama as an ATH and was going to be moved to CB. He committed to us because we were one of the only schools to offer him as a QB.
Skeptic
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,372
Aren't you guys, regarding Thomas and 4-star rating/position, arguing about the size of midget? Makes no never-mind. Marshall is at QB because he's the best Johnson has, deficiencies and all. Johnson has dumbed down his offense to fit but yes, when it comes time to throw, then hello Tevin Washington, nice to see you again, Josh Nesbitt. Perhaps a ghost inhabits Dodd Stadium.