Atlanta Braves News

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
I’m probably the biggest Riley fanatic on here. I’ve defended keeping him away from the eighth spot. Having him in the lineup now vs. any lefty. Saying all that, however...
....he should be on the 25 as a reserve.

Acuna, Inciarte, Kakes.
Freddie, Ozzie, Dans., Rain Man, McCann.
Reserves: Culberson, Camargo, Riley, Joyce, Flowers, Cervelli.

Dallas, Soroka, Maxy, Julio.
Long Relief: Folty, Tomlin OR Martin.
Short Relief: Melon Man ripe, Greene as money, Swarzak, Luuuke, Newk.
 

BonafideJacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
201
I’m probably the biggest Riley fanatic on here. I’ve defended keeping him away from the eighth spot. Having him in the lineup now vs. any lefty. Saying all that, however...
....he should be on the 25 as a reserve.

Acuna, Inciarte, Kakes.
Freddie, Ozzie, Dans., Rain Man, McCann.
Reserves: Culberson, Camargo, Riley, Joyce, Flowers, Cervelli.

Dallas, Soroka, Maxy, Julio.
Long Relief: Folty, Tomlin OR Martin.
Short Relief: Melon Man ripe, Greene as money, Swarzak, Luuuke, Newk.

3rd catcher (3.5 if you count Culberson) and Riley over Hamilton, Duvall, or Ortega? You may see one of them in lieu of Ender for the NLDS if he is just making it back. I'm assuming Hechavarria is out since he hasn't played in a week I don't think.

I think Martin is definitely in. Probably need Blevins too, otherwise Newk is the only lefty out of the pen.

Good problems to have, that's for sure.
 

Southpawmac

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,111
You can have my beer. I don’t drink. Well(and that’s a deep subject), in 39 years.

Could happen this week.

Magic number is 6 for playoffs. Right now, any combo. of Braves wins, Cubs losses.
Magic number is 11 for Eastern Division. Combo. of Braves wins, Nats. losses.

@Milwaukee, they asked me. Don’t chastise the researcher. :cautious:
One minor thing on the magic number for playoffs. It's Braves wins, Diamondback losses because they are third place team (right now) in the WC race. When you are calculating what the Braves need to do to make the playoffs, you are looking at the closest team on the outside that would replace the Braves. The Cubs overtaking the Braves would just leave the Braves as the 2nd WC and the Nationals as the NL East Champs. The third wildcard team overtaking the Braves would mean the Braves miss the playoffs.

Here is a good explanation from last year by a Red Sox fan.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
3rd catcher (3.5 if you count Culberson) and Riley over Hamilton, Duvall, or Ortega? You may see one of them in lieu of Ender for the NLDS if he is just making it back. I'm assuming Hechavarria is out since he hasn't played in a week I don't think.

I think Martin is definitely in. Probably need Blevins too, otherwise Newk is the only lefty out of the pen.

Good problems to have, that's for sure.
Didn’t Cox and don’t most Skippers keep 3 catchers? Remember you can’t replace an injured player until the NEXT series. Culberson is needed at too many other positions. He most likely doesn’t catch or pitch in the postseason.

I won’t pull the Riley numbers up, but he was still at .238 during the weekend. Power numbers still ranking high including doubles. The other guys you mentioned are too one dimensional. Coaches rave over Austin’s defense. That sliding catch made, RW said was the best of the year.

If they keep Blevins(and he has been passed over many times this week), who would he take the place of? I agree they want lefties, but you can’t trust Minter either.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
One minor thing on the magic number for playoffs. It's Braves wins, Diamondback losses because they are third place team (right now) in the WC race. When you are calculating what the Braves need to do to make the playoffs, you are looking at the closest team on the outside that would replace the Braves. The Cubs overtaking the Braves would just leave the Braves as the 2nd WC and the Nationals as the NL East Champs. The third wildcard team overtaking the Braves would mean the Braves miss the playoffs.

Here is a good explanation from last year by a Red Sox fan.

No, it’s the Cubs at 10 over, Snakes at 7 over. Like I stated, Cubs, right now. The Magic number with the D’Backs right now is less than 6. Think about it. Cubs are the second place WC today. Remember we’re talking Atl. magic number for playoffs. Today!
 
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BonafideJacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
201
Didn’t Cox and don’t most Skippers keep 3 catchers? Remember you can’t replace an injured player until the NEXT series. Culberson is needed at too many other positions. He most likely doesn’t catch or pitch in the postseason.

I won’t pull the Riley numbers up, but he was still at .238 during the weekend. Power numbers still ranking high including doubles. The other guys you mentioned are too one dimensional. Coaches rave over Austin’s defense. That sliding catch made, RW said was the best of the year.

If they keep Blevins(and he has been passed over many times this week), who would he take the place of? I agree they want lefties, but you can’t trust Minter either.

I think the rules were changed to allow for injury subs during a postseason series, you just can't use the injured player during the next series. Though I can certainly see the utility in a 3rd catcher, especially since both McCann and Cervelli are not just defensive specialists, they can both provide pop as a PH. (I'll leaving my commentary on Flowers out of this ;)).

As far as Riley goes, I just haven't seen any indication he's turning it around (admittedly a small sample size). 0 for 6 with 4 Ks since returning from the IR. Since the All Star break, he's slashing .164/.217/.255 with 1 HR and 25 Ks in 60 PA. Not sure his OF/IF defensive utility offsets that. Hopefully we'll see an improvement over next couple of weeks. Otherwise, I'd be tempted to go with Hamilton purely for his D and disruption on the basepaths, or use the slot for another arm for the 'pen.
 

Southpawmac

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,111
No, it’s the Cubs at 10 over, Snakes at 7 over. Like I stated, Cubs, right now. The Magic number with the D’Backs right now is less than 6. Think about it. Cubs are the second place WC today. Remember we’re talking Atl. magic number for playoffs. Today!
The Braves magic number for the playoff is 6. This is calculated by taking 163 - 89 (Braves wins) - 68 (Arizona loses) = 6. Doing the magic number using the Cubs is 163 - 89 - 68 (Cub loses) = 8. The Cubs ending up with a better record than the Braves doesn't matter because a playoff team passing another playoff team are still two playoff teams just in different positions. The Braves missing the playoffs is dependent on the closest team that is currently out of the playoffs overtaking the Braves.
 

Southpawmac

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,111
The Braves playoff magic number actually won't change unless the Braves win or Arizona, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia all lose because they all have 68 losses right now. So if Arizona were to lose tonight but the Phillies and Brewers both win, the magic number would still be 6 because the Phillies and Brewers would be tied as the first team out of the WC race. 163 - 89 - 68 = 6.
 

Southpawmac

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,111
The Braves magic number for the playoff is 6. This is calculated by taking 163 - 89 (Braves wins) - 68 (Arizona loses) = 6. Doing the magic number using the Cubs is 163 - 89 - 68 (Cub loses) = 8. The Cubs ending up with a better record than the Braves doesn't matter because a playoff team passing another playoff team are still two playoff teams just in different positions. The Braves missing the playoffs is dependent on the closest team that is currently out of the playoffs overtaking the Braves.
I put the wrong number for the Cubs loses. They have 66 loses. 163 - 89 - 66 = 8.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
I want to make this less complicated because I think you are overthinking.
If the Braves go 6-14, they clinch 1st W.C., no matter what any team in the N.L. does.
They can all go hypothetically and impossibly be undefeated. If you look at the original post you are taking me to task with, I said 6 games for making playoffs, 11 with Nationals for Eastern. It can never go higher than that, only less, depending on Braves wins and other contenders losses. Cubs could get passed, magic # will be less than 6 for Atlanta vs. the/those team(s) taking over in the W.C. Standings.

Close your eyes Fred(time to dream). The Nats. would need to go 16-4(.800 pct.)if Atlanta only wins 6 games, to take the Division. 15-5(.750 pct.)would allow the Braves to win the East.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
I put the wrong number for the Cubs loses. They have 66 loses. 163 - 89 - 66 = 8.
The Cubs are ahead of the other teams in the loss column, other than Washington for the W.C. Standings. Atlanta is less than 6 in magic # with the other teams other than Nats. and Cubbies.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
Does the Red Sox firing their POBO make it more or less likely Betts becomes a Brave (along with Rendon) this offseason?

I'll hang up and listen. :cool:
I’m going to pass on this one. My headache needs a nap. Matter of fact, please everyone refer magic # questions to @Southpawmac. I’ve spent so much time figuring it out originally and now defending my math. Thank you.
 

kg01

Get-Bak! Coach
Featured Member
Messages
15,372
Location
Atlanta
I’m going to pass on this one. My headache needs a nap. Matter of fact, please everyone refer magic # questions to @Southpawmac. I’ve spent so much time figuring it out originally and now defending my math. Thank you.


wthayta.gif


Ohhhh, you're talkin' about all that magic number talk I've been skipping over all day.
 

Buzzbomb

Mello Yellow-Jacket
Messages
12,014
I think the rules were changed to allow for injury subs during a postseason series, you just can't use the injured player during the next series. Though I can certainly see the utility in a 3rd catcher, especially since both McCann and Cervelli are not just defensive specialists, they can both provide pop as a PH. (I'll leaving my commentary on Flowers out of this ;)).

As far as Riley goes, I just haven't seen any indication he's turning it around (admittedly a small sample size). 0 for 6 with 4 Ks since returning from the IR. Since the All Star break, he's slashing .164/.217/.255 with 1 HR and 25 Ks in 60 PA. Not sure his OF/IF defensive utility offsets that. Hopefully we'll see an improvement over next couple of weeks. Otherwise, I'd be tempted to go with Hamilton purely for his D and disruption on the basepaths, or use the slot for another arm for the 'pen.
Your going to need the third catcher. Mac and Cervelli have had injuries.

Riley will make the roster. My contacts that work for the Braves tell me how much the Coaching Staff loves his attitude, humbleness, defense and flexibility. You don’t realize he’s played hurt since before the Break. It was kept under wraps. Did it for the team. The guy has been married and a very responsible man for his age. Most people don’t hear that stuff behind the scenes.
 
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