The issues with this are that all the schedules would have been different, so all of the records would be different.
Pitt isn't that much different than Syracuse and Wake. VT and Duke are about equivalent to BC. No way to know how it would have actually worked out, but I think it is likely that GT would have only lost 2 ACC games. Likely that would have been good enough to win the Coastal, or go to a tie-breaker for the Coastal.
No question. Had we played a different schedule, we would have won every game we played. Well, at least we wouldn't have lost a single game we played.
I think BC would have been our normal rotation opponent for 2023. If so, that means Syracuse and Wake would have actually been Dook and VPI. Somewhat tougher opponents, for sure, but I think we would have a very good shot at beating both of them, too. Dook, 6-5 (3-4), and VPI, 5-6 (4-3) aren't juggernauts either.
For most of college football, this is absolutely critical. Having depth is one thing, but only the factories can truly be “next man up.” For everyone else, losing your first string anything is a significant setback. Losing a stud QB is nearly catastrophic unless you’re tOSU, Bama, UGA, etc.
Actually, I have read some commentators say that the transfer portal has hurt the factories more than lower teams for this reason. According to them, the factories used to be three to four deep at four star players who would wait until their JR or SR year to start. When they lost the four/five star DE to injury a four/five star DE took over. When he was injured or needed to rest, another four/five star DE took over. When he needed to rest, another four/five star DE replaced him. Those 3rd/4th string players are not waiting to start any longer and transferring to a place where they can start and get NIL money. Even 2nd strings in some cases.
It’s going to be interesting to watch…
I can see that.. and it makes sense intuitively. I don’t know if I’m buying yet, but it’s certainly plausible. I would think they could also go poach better developed guys who can be more rotational in nature than a true #2 or #3. It’s probably true that they can’t hold on to talent and develop it for 2-3 years as much as they could before, but I don’t know if it really hurts them.
I actually think it is the reverse.
Yes, the factories are bringing in starters from smaller schools to replace guys who couldn’t break the 2-deep and left
UGA, Bama, Ohio State, and Michigan don’t seem to have lost anything, and are probably ahead overall. Clemson may have lost out, but that’s mainly due to not participating; it’s probably even helped open some spots for other players. FSUs comeback probably ties somewhat to the portal.
I don't think those teams have lost anything with their starters. It is the depth that the articles I read were discussing. Several years ago in the championship game, Jalen Hurts wasn't effective in the first half. Saban decided to replace him with Tua Tagovailoa after the half. They had a QB starter who was selected in the second round. His backup was selected #5 overall in the draft. Hurts transferred out because he graduated and was able to get immediate eligibility. Now, a potential draft player can transfer out at any time if he sees that he isn't likely to be the starter. He doesn't have to wait until he graduates.
247sports.com
The perennial CFP contenders may have enough 4-5 star depth where a handful of transfers out don't make a material difference in team strength. If they do bring in some guys from the portal, they can be very selective. So I don't think the portal hurts them, and may help. And Blueblood + NIL money means they will likely stay a blueblood.I looked at Bama on 247 (first hit that came up on Google). At QB, they have four 4* and one 5* QB’s. They have 18 5* players in their roster, and I counted 56 4* players. I counted 23 seniors, with one 5* and a lot of 4*’s.
I looked at the Transfer Portal “scoreboard”, and aside from Colorado, it’s the usual suspects. Bama and UGA aren’t on there, but they’re loaded.
2023 Transfer Football Team Rankings
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
Bama only brought in 5 while 21 left, but they had the #1 class of high school recruits and #1 overall (including transfers). As far as I can see, the big factories just reload.
This all just a new version of what Coach Dodd deplored about the SEC in his day. He hated what he called the "free tryout" the factories were creating by cutting players who didn't pan out to make room for more recruits. He wouldn't do it and so it created a competitive disadvantage. In my mind, of course it creates an advantage for the team that can stockpile top talent year after year, let their non-contributors go, and then stockpile some more. In that system, we'll get the factories' castoffs, who are good enough to help us, but will still leave us behind the factories since they are just piling up more and more top talent. So, it helps both. How much relative to one another, I don't know. That would be hard to determine, but it seems likely it's helping them more.I looked at Bama on 247 (first hit that came up on Google). At QB, they have four 4* and one 5* QB’s. They have 18 5* players in their roster, and I counted 56 4* players. I counted 23 seniors, with one 5* and a lot of 4*’s.
I looked at the Transfer Portal “scoreboard”, and aside from Colorado, it’s the usual suspects. Bama and UGA aren’t on there, but they’re loaded.
2023 Transfer Football Team Rankings
In order to create the most comprehensive Team Recruiting Ranking without any notion of bias, 247Sports Team Recruiting Ranking is solely based on the 247Sports Composite Rating.
Bama only brought in 5 while 21 left, but they had the #1 class of high school recruits and #1 overall (including transfers). As far as I can see, the big factories just reload.
In the talent composite, no one seems to be catching up to the big factories—maybe there’s rearranging
Also, good lord Auburn, Michigan State, South Carolina, Nebraska, and Florida. There are some theoretically “loaded” teams that might not make bowls.
I don't think that there is any question that this is the correct take. The elite factories are getting whoever they want and the rest are getting shafted with former 4 and 5 stars that became busts. The gulf is therefore becoming ever wider between the elite dozen or so teams and the also rans. IIWII
