ACC Discussion

[Deleted member 2897]

Selection committee isn’t using KenPom specifically though so while those teams look good on that metric it may not matter.

True. The big mismatch is in traditional polling and how good some of these teams might actually be.

For example, Saint Mary's is ranked #22 in the polls. Their RPI puts them at #40. Their strength of schedule is #203.

So if they use any sort of balanced approach - RPI/KenPom/Polls/Strength of Schedule - I don't see how they leave out any of these 10 ACC teams.

At the end of the regular season last year, we were supposedly a bubble team at 17-14, 8-10 in the ACC. There will be a lot of butt hurt, that's for sure.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

One little detail you left out - the tourney doesn't select the best 64 teams. Never has. 32 teams are conference champions leaving 36 at large teams (yes that is 68 teams selected with play in games). So a fair number of the conference champions will be in the top 36 so the number goes a lot deeper than 36 for at large and I expect 36 on Ken Pom is probably OK - but it isn't as cut and dried as you let it out here.

I know, that's not was I was trying to imply. But there are typically about 44-48 teams every year who get in out of true merit. The number of teams who win their conference championships and would have never had a chance otherwise is not that large. For example, the last teams to get in on straight merit are typically #12 seeds. That leaves 16 teams below that who are all those conference championship types, 48 who get in off merit (plus some riff raff with those double play in games).

So my rhetorical question was how do you potentially leave out a team ranked in the mid 30s when there are somewhere around 44-48 open slots available.

 

[YlJacket]

Because I was an engineer at one point in time, I will comment that NC State at #39 is not "mid" 30's but beyond that snark (I guess that is snark), I do agree with you that NC State should be in with their Ken Pom rating - though I haven't looked at RPI or other stuff to see if they are a Ken Pom outlier.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Because I was an engineer at one point in time, I will comment that NC State at #39 is not "mid" 30's but beyond that snark (I guess that is snark), I do agree with you that NC State should be in with their Ken Pom rating - though I haven't looked at RPI or other stuff to see if they are a Ken Pom outlier.

Nah, not a snark. Valid point. But they are the only team out of the 10 who is not mid 30s or better. And NC State is the #5 team in the ACC out of 15. If NC State beats us tonight, they'll be tied for 3rd place in the conference (with #9 UNC and #18 Clemson). I have a hard time not seeing them get in. Now if they lose to us, it gets more murky. But any team that loses to us right now should get a black eye or two.

 

[slugboy]

Nah, not a snark. Valid point. But they are the only team out of the 10 who is not mid 30s or better. And NC State is the #5 team in the ACC out of 15. If NC State beats us tonight, they'll be tied for 3rd place in the conference (with #9 UNC and #18 Clemson). I have a hard time not seeing them get in. Now if they lose to us, it gets more murky. But any team that loses to us right now should get a black eye or two.

If you lose to PITT, I'd say it's a black eye. If you lose to Tech (even with Alvarado out), we've played tough enough against UVA, Clemson, etc. lately that observers will think that "Tech just had an upset game in them".

 

[RamblinRed]

In terms of RPI they go like this
UVA 1
Duke 4
UNC 6
Clemson 8
Miami 24 (Q1 5-5, Q2 2-2, 2 Sub 100 losses)
L'ville 38 (Q1 3-8, Q2 2-2, 0 sub 100 losses)
FSU 45 (Q1 5-5)
NC ST 46 (quadrant 1 record 5-6)
VT 47 (Q1 5-5)
Syracuse 49 (Q1 2-7, Q2 4-2, 2 sub 100 losses)
ND 69

Top 4 are absolute locks.
Miami, FSU, NC ST and VT are all relatively safe.
Syracuse and L'ville are probably the 2 most bubbly. Both lacking many good wins
ND is on the wrong side.

FWIW, quadrants work like this.
Q1 - Top 30 RPI win at home, Top 50 RPI win neutral, Top 75 RPI win road
Q2 - 31-75 Home, 51-100 Neutral, 76-135 away
Q3 - 76-150 Home, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Q4 - 151+ Home, 201+ neutral, 241+ away

 

[Peacone36]

Here is what drives me crazy, too heavy of a reliance on any of the metrics.

Watch. Them. Play.

Watch NC State play in the games they have Markel Johnson and tell me they arent a tournament team.

Watch Syracuse play and tell me they have any upside more than 1 and done.

Notre Dame is interesting but they also have 13 losses. They might not need to win Saturday but they have to at least look good in a loss an then do some serious damage in teh ACCT.

Louisville controls their own destiny as the only bubble team with 2 games remaining albeit against very good teams. 10 ACC wins should get them in. If they go 0-2 they, like Notre Dame, need to do damage in the ACCT.

FSU should probably finish at 9-9 but I think they still have to win one in the ACCT. They have lost 4 of their last 6 and are living very dangerously. Saturday is a big day for a lot of teams.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, Jerry Palm updated his bracket this morning.
He has L'ville as one of the last 4 in, Syracuse is the first team out in his bracket right now.
ND he doesn't list and the other 8 all have seeds that suggest they are pretty safe at this point (VT, FSU, NCST, Miami all are 7-9 seeds)

Lunardi also has an updated bracket this morning.
It has L'ville in the last 4 in and Syracuse as the #2 team out. ND is the #8 team out in his bracket.

I agree with ND. With Colson back they need to win a few games.

 

[Peacone36]

FWIW, Jerry Palm updated his bracket this morning.
He has L'ville as one of the last 4 in, Syracuse is the first team out in his bracket right now.
ND he doesn't list and the other 8 all have seeds that suggest they are pretty safe at this point (VT, FSU, NCST, Miami all are 7-9 seeds)

Lunardi also has an updated bracket this morning.
It has L'ville in the last 4 in and Syracuse as the #2 team out. ND is the #8 team out in his bracket.

I agree with ND. With Colson back they need to win a few games.

You think FSU remains safe with a loss to BC? I cant imagine that being the case. They have not looked good lately.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

FWIW, Jerry Palm updated his bracket this morning.
He has L'ville as one of the last 4 in, Syracuse is the first team out in his bracket right now.
ND he doesn't list and the other 8 all have seeds that suggest they are pretty safe at this point (VT, FSU, NCST, Miami all are 7-9 seeds)

Lunardi also has an updated bracket this morning.
It has L'ville in the last 4 in and Syracuse as the #2 team out. ND is the #8 team out in his bracket.

I agree with ND. With Colson back they need to win a few games.

It never ceases to amaze me how Syracuse is listed as a bubble team every year, when they are hot garbage every year. They're in 11th place in the ACC, and 7-10 and 18-12. It is highly likely they lose to Clemson in their final game, to finish at 7-11 and 18-13. If that happens and Boston College wins, Syracuse will finish 12th in the ACC. They're #53 in KenPom and #48 in RPI. They don't have a single win against a ranked team.

 

[Peacone36]

It never ceases to amaze me how Syracuse is listed as a bubble team every year, when they are hot garbage every year. They're in 11th place in the ACC, and 7-10 and 18-12. It is highly likely they lose to Clemson in their final game, to finish at 7-11 and 18-13. If that happens and Boston College wins, Syracuse will finish 12th in the ACC. They're #53 in KenPom and #48 in RPI. They don't have a single win against a ranked team.

SOS is 16.

Yes I know, you actually have to win some of those for that to matter, I agree.

Buffalo is considered a quadrant 1 win for the Orange, or at least it was until recently. Also of note, 4 of their 7 ACC wins are Pitt twice, Wake and BC. I haven’t seen them as a dance team for a long time and yet on the blind resume tests on Twitter I pick them almost every time

 

[Deleted member 2897]

SOS is 16.

Yes I know, you actually have to win some of those for that to matter, I agree.

Buffalo is considered a quadrant 1 win for the Orange, or at least it was until recently. Also of note, 4 of their 7 ACC wins are Pitt twice, Wake and BC. I haven’t seen them as a dance team for a long time and yet on the blind resume tests on Twitter I pick them almost every time

Yup, they haven't beat a single ranked team. Their losses also include Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest who are the 10th, 12th, 13th, and 14th place teams (Syracuse is 11th). LOL.

Yea, SOS is pointless if you don't beat anybody. We have the #24 SOS this year, and that's including a largely dumpster fire worthless out of conference schedule. Up until about 3 weeks ago, I could have made a defensible argument that we were a stronger bubble team than Syracuse was, based on the ranked teams we'd beat and our injuries/suspensions. And that's sad really that you could actually argue that against any supposed bubble team.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, SI.com updated their bracket as well.
They have L'ville in the Final Four in. Syracuse as the #2 team out, ND as #5 team out.

L'ville could really solidify its position by winning one of its last 2.

I think FSU is relatively safe - not completely safe, but relatively so. They could probably use 1 more win - but alot of teams would have to go on big runs to knock them out.

 

[KeystoneJacket]

 

[Deleted member 2897]

He should look at USCe - they love taking suspended and ineligible players. #GoSEC

 

[dtm1997]

He should look at USCe - they love taking suspended and ineligible players. #GoSEC

Also, he's from South Carolina

 

[lauraee]

Wonder what he did to be suspended?

 

[CuseJacket]

Yup, they haven't beat a single ranked team. Their losses also include Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest who are the 10th, 12th, 13th, and 14th place teams (Syracuse is 11th). LOL.

Yea, SOS is pointless if you don't beat anybody. We have the #24 SOS this year, and that's including a largely dumpster fire worthless out of conference schedule. Up until about 3 weeks ago, I could have made a defensible argument that we were a stronger bubble team than Syracuse was, based on the ranked teams we'd beat and our injuries/suspensions. And that's sad really that you could actually argue that against any supposed bubble team.

Welp, I'll dive into this with orange colored glasses.

First, I acknowledge Syracuse looks like crap offensively and is a marginal bubble team. Every bubble team every year has proven they can lose to pretty much anyone, and it comes down to big wins. Syracuse doesn't have any marquee wins. Not going to argue whether they should or should not be in.

That said.....

GT's best wins: vs. Miami, vs. ND w/out Colson
'Cuse's best wins: @Miami, @Louisville, vs. VT

Are you suggesting we count GT's win vs. Miami as a win over a ranked team, whereas Syracuse's was not?

Why do we ignore the last 3 weeks? Because GT now has fewer scholarship players available (yet still more than Syracuse)?

GT beat Syracuse at home. On that same date, imo, GT loses to Syracuse on a neutral court or @ Syracuse. Would have been my prediction at that time and now.

The Orange will be a pick 'em at home vs. Clemson this Saturday. Clemson is still overrated, and Syracuse is much better at home. But I actually don't think winning that will get them in. I think they need 1-2 more in the ACC tournament, where they have literally never won a game.

I wish the quadrant system was used last year, and 'Cuse would have gotten in. Instead wins at home vs. Duke, UVA, FSU, and Miami were ignored as they didn't have a good road win. I don't think 'Cuse would have done much with a bid anyway, but I didn't think so in 2016 either.

 

[CuseJacket]

It never ceases to amaze me how Syracuse is listed as a bubble team every year, when they are hot garbage every year. They're in 11th place in the ACC, and 7-10 and 18-12. It is highly likely they lose to Clemson in their final game, to finish at 7-11 and 18-13. If that happens and Boston College wins, Syracuse will finish 12th in the ACC. They're #53 in KenPom and #48 in RPI. They don't have a single win against a ranked team.

*Hot garbage Final Four team

 

[Deleted member 2897]

*Hot garbage Final Four team

That is just so fantastic.