ACC Discussion

orientalnc

orientalnc

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Given my error, I wondered what does it take for us to get a bye on Tuesday. And what that means.

The bottom four teams are set. It's the next two up that are still uncertain. Plus the scramble for seeds 2-4.

Wake, at 7-9 will likely lose at home to UL and @VT to finish 7-11. They could beat VT and finish 8-10.
VT at 8-7 plays @BC and home vs Miami and Wake. They will likely win all three to finish 11-7 (or 10-8 or 9-9).
Cuse at 9-7 plays @UL and home against GT. They are hoping to beat us to finish 10-8. Winning in Louisville is a stretch.
UVA at 9-7 plays UNC and Pitt at home. It's hard to see them losing both, so they are likely ending at 10-8.

For us, at 7-8, it means we really have to beat at home Pitt plus win at Syracuse or ND to finish at 9-9. On the plus side, Pitt's only road win was at BC. But, ND is battling for the double bye with FSU, Duke, and Louisville (they play UL on the road next weekend to end the ACC season). A loss to us tomorrow likely ends their chances of being off until Thursday. If we lose to ND while beating Pitt and Cuse, and the Orange also loses to UL, we could be tied with Cuse at 9-9. Using the 2016 tiebreaker rules, we would have the advantage over Cuse and finish as the #9 seed.

The reason winning at Pitt is so important is that losing probably slips us to the #11 seed, as we lose the tiebreaker to Wake. In fact, Cuse is the only team in this bunch where we hold the tiebreaker advantage.

From a practical standpoint, I wonder if the #9 seed is a lot better than #11, but our record will be a lot better as the #9 than as the #11. And, if we lose on Tuesday as the #10 or #11, the NIT may be out the question for us.
 

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lv20gt said:
Okogie outplayed him in the last game but Smith outplayed Okogie in the first.
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The reason I said Okogie outplayed him in the first game too is that Tech had 5 guys in double figures and we won going away. Smith simply hogged the shots. They each made 10 FG. Smith had a few more rebounds and what not, but he didn't help his team do what they needed to in order to win.

I would vote for him for ROY though.
 
jeffgt14

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orientalnc said:
Given my error, I wondered what does it take for us to get a bye on Tuesday. And what that means.

The bottom four teams are set. It's the next two up that are still uncertain. Plus the scramble for seeds 2-4.

Wake, at 7-9 will likely lose at home to UL and @VT to finish 7-11. They could beat VT and finish 8-10.
VT at 8-7 plays @BC and home vs Miami and Wake. They will likely win all three to finish 11-7 (or 10-8 or 9-9).
Cuse at 9-7 plays @UL and home against GT. They are hoping to beat us to finish 10-8. Winning in Louisville is a stretch.
UVA at 9-7 plays UNC and Pitt at home. It's hard to see them losing both, so they are likely ending at 10-8.

For us, at 7-8, it means we really have to beat at home Pitt plus win at Syracuse or ND to finish at 9-9. On the plus side, Pitt's only road win was at BC. But, ND is battling for the double bye with FSU, Duke, and Louisville (they play UL on the road next weekend to end the ACC season). A loss to us tomorrow likely ends their chances of being off until Thursday. If we lose to ND while beating Pitt and Cuse, and the Orange also loses to UL, we could be tied with Cuse at 9-9. Using the 2016 tiebreaker rules, we would have the advantage over Cuse and finish as the #9 seed.

The reason winning at Pitt is so important is that losing probably slips us to the #11 seed, as we lose the tiebreaker to Wake. In fact, Cuse is the only team in this bunch where we hold the tiebreaker advantage.

From a practical standpoint, I wonder if the #9 seed is a lot better than #11, but our record will be a lot better as the #9 than as the #11. And, if we lose on Tuesday as the #10 or #11, the NIT may be out the question for us.
Click to expand...
#9 is a death trap. #10 and we're golden.
 

lv20gt

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bwelbo said:
The reason I said Okogie outplayed him in the first game too is that Tech had 5 guys in double figures and we won going away. Smith simply hogged the shots. They each made 10 FG. Smith had a few more rebounds and what not, but he didn't help his team do what they needed to in order to win.

I would vote for him for ROY though.
Click to expand...

Wait, Smith simply hogged the shots? He's the one who had 6 assists compared to Okogie's 1. He also only took 31% of his team's shots compared to Okogie taking 29% of ours. Smith also shot 10% better than the rest of his team combined. Come on man.

Anyways, looking at the ACC only stats, most of the stats are fairly close. The biggest thing going against Okogie is that Smith is scoring more per game and also leads the ACC in assists, and has a much higher ATO ratio. The biggest thing working in Okogie's favor is GT is still in the hunt for the NCAAT and has 3 games left. If he can string together 3 high level games, 20+ points, and have us win at least two then there is a pretty good argument for him over Smith. Pretty similar situation to use making the NCAAT actually. Long shot but reasonable chance.
 

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lv20gt said:
Wait, Smith simply hogged the shots? He's the one who had 6 assists compared to Okogie's 1. He also only took 31% of his team's shots compared to Okogie taking 29% of ours. Smith also shot 10% better than the rest of his team combined. Come on man.

Anyways, looking at the ACC only stats, most of the stats are fairly close. The biggest thing going against Okogie is that Smith is scoring more per game and also leads the ACC in assists, and has a much higher ATO ratio. The biggest thing working in Okogie's favor is GT is still in the hunt for the NCAAT and has 3 games left. If he can string together 3 high level games, 20+ points, and have us win at least two then there is a pretty good argument for him over Smith. Pretty similar situation to use making the NCAAT actually. Long shot but reasonable chance.
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I said I would vote for him for Freshman of the year. I just don't think it's by a mile. It's very difficult to win an honor like that if you're on a team that does nothing but lose. If someone feels differently I don't begrudge such an opinion.
 
Peacone36

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bwelbo said:
I said I would vote for him for Freshman of the year. I just don't think it's by a mile. It's very difficult to win an honor like that if you're on a team that does nothing but lose. If someone feels differently I don't begrudge such an opinion.
Click to expand...

If you had said smith he would have said JOk.
 
orientalnc

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It will be interesting to see how the FOY voters view Smith and JO, given how their teams have played versus expectations. Just looking at the numbers, it is hard to make a case for Okogie. I think Jason Tatum has a case to be made, as well.
 

RamblinRed

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Keep in mind that due to the payouts you receive from the NCAA Tourney you want as many teams from your conference to make the Tourney and to advance as far as possible. The more wins, the more money the conference earns. Last year the ACC set a record for most wins in the Tourney, and therefore, a record for amount of money earned. It was around $32MM that the conference earned last season. That is payed out over 6 yrs.
 
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